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Arb HYP adjustment

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Dod101
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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#418669

Postby Dod101 » June 10th, 2021, 4:48 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Dod101 wrote:Well obviously using the trailing yield for say HSBC over the past year is going to err on the side of caution I hope but how do you do a forecast yield for that, or I suppose how does a bunch of analysts do that? So I take the current share price and the trailing yield. Actually I seldom buy motivated by the yield anyway. I am much more interested to know why the market is allowing such a high yield for Imperial Brands and whether that is 8.8% as a forecast or 8.5% based on the trailing yield is neither here nor there. It bothers me especially at the moment when there has been so much disruption to dividends in general.

But I really cannot be bothered to argue the case all over again.

Dod


Just a point of order: it's the dividend forecast we are concerned with initially, not the yield.
I'm not concerned as to how they do it: I'm happy to know that in most cases it works out near enough correctly for my purposes. There's nothing to argue about, Dod, we are each happy with our ways and that's enough 8-)

Arb.


But why then would you produce a table showing the Forecast Yield?

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#418671

Postby Arborbridge » June 10th, 2021, 4:54 pm

Dod101 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
Dod101 wrote:Well obviously using the trailing yield for say HSBC over the past year is going to err on the side of caution I hope but how do you do a forecast yield for that, or I suppose how does a bunch of analysts do that? So I take the current share price and the trailing yield. Actually I seldom buy motivated by the yield anyway. I am much more interested to know why the market is allowing such a high yield for Imperial Brands and whether that is 8.8% as a forecast or 8.5% based on the trailing yield is neither here nor there. It bothers me especially at the moment when there has been so much disruption to dividends in general.

But I really cannot be bothered to argue the case all over again.

Dod


Just a point of order: it's the dividend forecast we are concerned with initially, not the yield.
I'm not concerned as to how they do it: I'm happy to know that in most cases it works out near enough correctly for my purposes. There's nothing to argue about, Dod, we are each happy with our ways and that's enough 8-)

Arb.


But why then would you produce a table showing the Forecast Yield?


I don't: the software does. When it comes to my budget for my future income, that yield is only used so the software can turn it back into a dividend - a bit circular, but it just does it that way.
You are correct as regards HYP choices, of course, one looks at yield - but the yield is based on forecast dividends at today's price. So we should properly be criticising analysts for the accuracy of their dividend forecast, not yield.
Well, you know all this!

Arb.

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#428972

Postby Arborbridge » July 20th, 2021, 8:48 am

Having received a dollop of cash from PNN, I was prompted to topup yesterday. I went for VOD which third in ranking but also happened to be the top ranking share in the account which received the cash.
After purchase, the top 12 shares in my HYP look like this:



I notice BP and IMB have bounced back into the topup zone, but by the next time I have cash spare things will no doubt have moved again.

Depressingly, as the market fell yesterday, although I benefitted on the VOD purchase, my portfolio fell in value much more than the value of the topup. One step forward, several back.

Checking my previous purchases of VOD, I noticed they have become almost an annual event - some even in the same month - but also noticeable is that the price of each purchase has fallen year on year. Not a healthy look at all :(

The receipt of the PNN cash reduced the overall value of the HYP shares, which also made the Admiral share stand out further - now at 2.12x median weight.

Arb.

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#428975

Postby moorfield » July 20th, 2021, 9:25 am

Arborbridge wrote:Depressingly, as the market fell yesterday, although I benefitted on the VOD purchase, my portfolio fell in value much more than the value of the topup. One step forward, several back.



... but did anyone announce any dividend cuts yesterday?

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#428977

Postby idpickering » July 20th, 2021, 9:27 am

Thanks for the update Arb.

As for Vodafone, not withstanding the juicy yield on offer, which is what we HYPers are more interested in, it has been a dog of an investment. I’ve often thought of dropping it and redeploying the dosh elsewhere. Imho, they’re very much a ‘don’t chase the high yield’ share to me. A nod to Dod for that saying btw. Either way, I shall continue to hold the stock.

Ian.

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#428980

Postby Darka » July 20th, 2021, 9:34 am

idpickering wrote:Thanks for the update Arb.

As for Vodafone, not withstanding the juicy yield on offer, which is what we HYPers are more interested in, it has been a dog of an investment. I’ve often thought of dropping it and redeploying the dosh elsewhere. Imho, they’re very much a ‘don’t chase the high yield’ share to me. A nod to Dod for that saying btw. Either way, I shall continue to hold the stock.

Ian.


If it wasn't for the yield I would get rid of them, but I'm hoping for a price rise and yield drop so that I can do so, probably won't happen though...

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#428981

Postby Dod101 » July 20th, 2021, 9:39 am

Another share which I note is in Arb's top 12 is Chesnara which I must say has also been a disappointment in terms of capital. I do not know why because it keeps increasing its dividend and now yields over 8%. It does not look as if it is heading for a dividend cut and yet..........

Dod

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#428986

Postby Arborbridge » July 20th, 2021, 10:04 am

moorfield wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:Depressingly, as the market fell yesterday, although I benefitted on the VOD purchase, my portfolio fell in value much more than the value of the topup. One step forward, several back.



... but did anyone announce any dividend cuts yesterday?


Good point, but it is still despressingly :lol:

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#428988

Postby Arborbridge » July 20th, 2021, 10:07 am

idpickering wrote:Thanks for the update Arb.

As for Vodafone, not withstanding the juicy yield on offer, which is what we HYPers are more interested in, it has been a dog of an investment. I’ve often thought of dropping it and redeploying the dosh elsewhere. Imho, they’re very much a ‘don’t chase the high yield’ share to me. A nod to Dod for that saying btw. Either way, I shall continue to hold the stock.

Ian.


Is it particularly outlandish in yield? You buy BATs or IMB and Dod has just mentioned CSN - all these and more are of similar yield. Are we "chasing" anything in that case, or just taking advantage of a market distortion?

Arb.

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#428989

Postby Gengulphus » July 20th, 2021, 10:08 am

Arborbridge wrote:
moorfield wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:Depressingly, as the market fell yesterday, although I benefitted on the VOD purchase, my portfolio fell in value much more than the value of the topup. One step forward, several back.

... but did anyone announce any dividend cuts yesterday?

Good point, but it is still despressingly :lol:

A hint of desperation entering into your depression? ;-)

Gengulphus

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#429002

Postby idpickering » July 20th, 2021, 10:56 am

Arborbridge wrote:
idpickering wrote:Thanks for the update Arb.

As for Vodafone, not withstanding the juicy yield on offer, which is what we HYPers are more interested in, it has been a dog of an investment. I’ve often thought of dropping it and redeploying the dosh elsewhere. Imho, they’re very much a ‘don’t chase the high yield’ share to me. A nod to Dod for that saying btw. Either way, I shall continue to hold the stock.

Ian.


Is it particularly outlandish in yield? You buy BATs or IMB and Dod has just mentioned CSN - all these and more are of similar yield. Are we "chasing" anything in that case, or just taking advantage of a market distortion?

Arb.


Fair enough Arb. Point taken.

Ian.

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#429056

Postby daveh » July 20th, 2021, 2:03 pm

Arborbridge wrote:Having received a dollop of cash from PNN, I was prompted to topup yesterday. I went for VOD which third in ranking but also happened to be the top ranking share in the account which received the cash.


I notice BP and IMB have bounced back into the topup zone, but by the next time I have cash spare things will no doubt have moved again.

Depressingly, as the market fell yesterday, although I benefitted on the VOD purchase, my portfolio fell in value much more than the value of the topup. One step forward, several back.

Checking my previous purchases of VOD, I noticed they have become almost an annual event - some even in the same month - but also noticeable is that the price of each purchase has fallen year on year. Not a healthy look at all :(

The receipt of the PNN cash reduced the overall value of the HYP shares, which also made the Admiral share stand out further - now at 2.12x median weight.

Arb.


It was a cheap dealing day today so I recycled my Pennon cash into Unilever. Not near the top of my HYPTUSS, but was added to my portfolio during the covid sell off as it was at a good yield for Unilever at the time and this was a chance to bring it up towards median size. It will probably need another small top up to get it there. Will be replacing one not so high yield share with another not so high yield share. Dividend data suggests I'm replacing a 1.7% yield with a 3.3% yield. The London Stock Exchange site suggests the FTSE 100 yield is 2.8% (I'm assuming historic as one website/commentator was suggesting the FTSE will yield 3.7% this year (2021) so high yield on historic dividends.

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#429061

Postby MDW1954 » July 20th, 2021, 2:29 pm

daveh wrote:The London Stock Exchange site suggests the FTSE 100 yield is 2.8% (I'm assuming historic as one website/commentator was suggesting the FTSE will yield 3.7% this year (2021) so high yield on historic dividends.


The FT had the FTSE 100 on 3.05% as of Friday. That is historic, as far as I know.

MDW1954

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#429147

Postby daveh » July 20th, 2021, 5:53 pm

daveh wrote:
It was a cheap dealing day today so I recycled my Pennon cash into Unilever. Not near the top of my HYPTUSS, but was added to my portfolio during the covid sell off as it was at a good yield for Unilever at the time and this was a chance to bring it up towards median size. It will probably need another small top up to get it there. Will be replacing one not so high yield share with another not so high yield share. Dividend data suggests I'm replacing a 1.7% yield with a 3.3% yield. The London Stock Exchange site suggests the FTSE 100 yield is 2.8% (I'm assuming historic as one website/commentator was suggesting the FTSE will yield 3.7% this year (2021) so high yield on historic dividends.


It was higher up HYPTUSS than I thought. Was sitting in 9= a couple of weeks ago before the top up, but is now in 33 place. My top up table now looks like:
1 VOD
2 NWG
3 LLPC
4 AV.B
5 TSCO
6= MNG
6= GSK
8 SBRY
9= AV.
9= VTY
11 BT.
12 S32
13= LLOY
13= GFRD
13= HFEL


I didn't actually look as the cash was in the broker account that contained Unilever and I was wanting to bring it up to median size as I hadn't been able to invest in it all in one go as I'm generally reinvesting dividends - I do add some extra money from time to time though.

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#429216

Postby Arborbridge » July 21st, 2021, 6:52 am

daveh wrote:It was a cheap dealing day today so I recycled my Pennon cash into Unilever.


Cheaping dealing day for selling on Halifax comes once a month - as you say, that was yesterday. But it's amazing how often that day coincides with some family task which takes me away from home and the PC for the whole middle of the day, as it did yesterday.


Arb.

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#434495

Postby Arborbridge » August 13th, 2021, 9:49 am

Top up on August 10th - cheap dealing day in my Bell account. Simple decision this month as UK Wind was in first place, and I couldn't see much reason not to add to it. As you see from the table below, it remains in top place and will do so until it is brought up to somewhere near a full holding (as the yield is around the HYP average) .
Also I added some more to LGEN, not because it was high in the table, but because I felt like it 8-) It is unlikely to receive more capital for a while, given as it provides 4.5% of my income and has a capital weight of 1.45x median. It was previous topped up in Augst 2017, almost precisely four years ago.
Here is the current top dozen shares in top up order:-



Some cynics might comment: "what a motley crew of cripples" - but that is to a degree what HYP tends to throw up to the top. The only question is whether such companies are experiencing a medium term dip in fortune from which they will recover, or long term decline.

And here is a "catch up" on the whole HYP in order of capital weight. Admiral is still asking for a trim, being 2.17% median weight, with Man Group second at 1.5% median. Diageo is begging for attention as the yield is only 2% - but I'm trying to ignore it for the moment, preferring to see how things evolve. Another share attrating attention is RIO - a relatively new purchase, which seems to be telling me it's providing 7.8% of my income.
As with all these matters during the recovery phase from covid, I am sitting back and watching how matters resolve, evolve, rather than rushing to judgement. It's still clear that companies are trying to get back to normal and I don't see the need to trade in and out as this process unfolds and causes percentage change in my HYP table, unless I am convinced the change is relatively permanent.

BTW, these two tables and my comments about trimming, illustrate the point that HYP is an unusual and relatively high risk policy since it encourages slicing winners and backing those which have fallen. Like a "value" technique, it can be on the wrong side of the equation for a long time as regards capital - but in practice it does provided the income needed, which is its mandate.



Arb.

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#434500

Postby Dod101 » August 13th, 2021, 10:11 am

Diageo has been a good share for me as it sits exactly where I like, a reliable increaser of dividends and a decent growth share. I have moved very much into that sphere in recent years. That means of course that Chesnara needs to be looked at closely although I am reluctant to give up its income. The question is whether its income is enough to offset the lack of growth.

Anyway I will be called out as these are not HYP comments. I like your HYP although it is a bit too extensive for me. Thanks for posting it.

Dod

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#434505

Postby MDW1954 » August 13th, 2021, 10:27 am

Arborbridge wrote:... HYP is an unusual and relatively high risk policy since it encourages slicing winners and backing those which have fallen.

Arb.


No, it doesn't -- as a matter of policy -- encourage slicing winners at all.

Some here might choose to do that, but many more don't. I don't believe that I have ever "sliced a winner", and I've been a regular on TMF's and TLF's HYP boards since 2005.

MDW1954

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#434519

Postby idpickering » August 13th, 2021, 11:03 am

Thanks for the update Arb. That’s a mighty fine looking HYP imho.

For me, it’s a top up of my HICL Infrastruture holdings on 20 Aug 21. For September, I think Tesco get the nod, for now at least. ;)

Ian.

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Re: Arb HYP adjustment

#434523

Postby Itsallaguess » August 13th, 2021, 11:12 am

MDW1954 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
... HYP is an unusual and relatively high risk policy since it encourages slicing winners and backing those which have fallen.


No, it doesn't -- as a matter of policy -- encourage slicing winners at all.

Some here might choose to do that, but many more don't.

I don't believe that I have ever "sliced a winner", and I've been a regular on TMF's and TLF's HYP boards since 2005.


I just hope no-one is impolite enough to ask if you"ve actually had any!!

:O)

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


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