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Forecast dividends

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valueinvestor123
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Forecast dividends

#418843

Postby valueinvestor123 » June 11th, 2021, 1:57 pm

Any suggestions which are the best sites to use to check forecast yields for shares? I used to use Digitallook but then it changed to Sharecast and I don’t think they have forecast dividends.
At the moment, I go to Investor’s Chronicle tool section but it’s a little cumbersome.
For current dividends, his is my favourite site: https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... ld&order=1 (whoever runs it, thank you very much for this!)
However since many companies have cut dividends this year, many are also reinstating them at quite good levels and one can’t quite get a good grasp which makes nes those might be.
Thanks!
Vi123

Itsallaguess
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Re: Forecast dividends

#418845

Postby Itsallaguess » June 11th, 2021, 2:03 pm

valueinvestor123 wrote:
Any suggestions which are the best sites to use to check forecast yields for shares?

I used to use Digitallook but then it changed to Sharecast and I don’t think they have forecast dividends.


Sharecast give Forecast Yields for most major UK shares.

Here's a current example showing the Forecast Yield for Vodafone -

Image

Source - https://www.sharecast.com/equity/Vodafone_Group

For a monthly 'forward look' in terms of expected 'announced' dividends from my income portfolio, I use the following Dividend Data link, which is very useful because it keeps track of things like currency conversions as they get announced -

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend-payment-dates.py?m=alldividends

Note that on the above URL we can select a given month, but it defaults to the 'current month', and given that things are likely to still be getting 'updated' more than four weeks out with new company-announcements, then I tend to just look at the link at the start of the month and generate a little table of expected dividends for that period, which tends to work very well on the whole..

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Forecast dividends

#418846

Postby idpickering » June 11th, 2021, 2:16 pm

valueinvestor123 wrote:Any suggestions which are the best sites to use to check forecast yields for shares? I used to use Digitallook but then it changed to Sharecast and I don’t think they have forecast dividends.
At the moment, I go to Investor’s Chronicle tool section but it’s a little cumbersome.
For current dividends, his is my favourite site: https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... ld&order=1 (whoever runs it, thank you very much for this!)
However since many companies have cut dividends this year, many are also reinstating them at quite good levels and one can’t quite get a good grasp which makes nes those might be.
Thanks!
Vi123


I use dividenddata nowadays. I mourn the loss of digitallook tbh. But dividenddata is a great site imho.

Ian.
Last edited by idpickering on June 11th, 2021, 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

MDW1954
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Re: Forecast dividends

#418847

Postby MDW1954 » June 11th, 2021, 2:16 pm

I too use Sharecast.

MDW1954

valueinvestor123
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Re: Forecast dividends

#418849

Postby valueinvestor123 » June 11th, 2021, 2:22 pm

Ah interesting. Whenever I came back to Sharecast to check, the forecast column was empty for some reason more often than not! I thought it is because this data may have become too valuable and only available via Bloomberg nowadays...
Thanks!


Itsallaguess wrote:
valueinvestor123 wrote:
Any suggestions which are the best sites to use to check forecast yields for shares?

I used to use Digitallook but then it changed to Sharecast and I don’t think they have forecast dividends.


Sharecast give Forecast Yields for most major UK shares.

Here's a current example showing the Forecast Yield for Vodafone -

Image

Source - https://www.sharecast.com/equity/Vodafone_Group

For a monthly 'forward look' in terms of expected 'announced' dividends from my income portfolio, I use the following Dividend Data link, which is very useful because it keeps track of things like currency conversions as they get announced -

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend-payment-dates.py?m=alldividends

Note that on the above URL we can select a given month, but it defaults to the 'current month', and given that things are likely to still be getting 'updated' more than four weeks out with new company-announcements, then I tend to just look at the link at the start of the month and generate a little table of expected dividends for that period, which tends to work very well on the whole..

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

valueinvestor123
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Re: Forecast dividends

#418851

Postby valueinvestor123 » June 11th, 2021, 2:34 pm

There's nothing that sorts FTSE350 by forecast yield, right? Something Digitallook used to do. (Or even by 52-week price? To check where the weakness might be/Yield might be hiding).

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Re: Forecast dividends

#418853

Postby kiloran » June 11th, 2021, 2:40 pm

Forecast data appears to be very sparse, I've searched high and low over the years. Sharecast used to have forecast dividends, EPS, PE etc for the next few years, after the "Key Fundamentals" data block, but the forecasts disappeared around the start of 2021. Sharecast have not replied to any of my emails to them.

The only other site I can suggest is MarketScreener, such as https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/st ... C-9590186/ or https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/st ... inancials/

The site limits the number of requests (seems to be per day (generally it works again the following day) but I find that if I use a private browsing session, when it locks me out I can close the browser, open a new private window and it is OK again

--kiloran

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Re: Forecast dividends

#418857

Postby kiloran » June 11th, 2021, 2:46 pm

valueinvestor123 wrote:Ah interesting. Whenever I came back to Sharecast to check, the forecast column was empty for some reason more often than not! I thought it is because this data may have become too valuable and only available via Bloomberg nowadays...
Thanks!


Itsallaguess wrote:
valueinvestor123 wrote:
Any suggestions which are the best sites to use to check forecast yields for shares?

I used to use Digitallook but then it changed to Sharecast and I don’t think they have forecast dividends.


Sharecast give Forecast Yields for most major UK shares.

Here's a current example showing the Forecast Yield for Vodafone -

Image

Source - https://www.sharecast.com/equity/Vodafone_Group

For a monthly 'forward look' in terms of expected 'announced' dividends from my income portfolio, I use the following Dividend Data link, which is very useful because it keeps track of things like currency conversions as they get announced -

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend-payment-dates.py?m=alldividends

Note that on the above URL we can select a given month, but it defaults to the 'current month', and given that things are likely to still be getting 'updated' more than four weeks out with new company-announcements, then I tend to just look at the link at the start of the month and generate a little table of expected dividends for that period, which tends to work very well on the whole..

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Yes, the Forecast Data in Sharecast is often empty or n/a, and I'm not sure we know what the definition of the forecast actually is. I do get the feeling that the site is a bit of a Mary Celeste..... rudderless and nobody at home.
The previous data which was listed by year was rather more useful

--kiloran

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Re: Forecast dividends

#418859

Postby kiloran » June 11th, 2021, 2:56 pm

At the end of May, I did a comparison of forecast yields in Sharecast and MarketScreener for the FTSE350, which you might be interested in.

I've uploaded it to http://lemonfoolfinancialsoftware.weebl ... llany.html

--kiloran

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Re: Forecast dividends

#418867

Postby scrumpyjack » June 11th, 2021, 3:52 pm

kiloran wrote:At the end of May, I did a comparison of forecast yields in Sharecast and MarketScreener for the FTSE350, which you might be interested in.

I've uploaded it to http://lemonfoolfinancialsoftware.weebl ... llany.html

--kiloran


The problem with that is that it you need to know the daily share price they are using, which isn't there, so you don't have a forecast dividend in P per share, which would be much more useful.

The Inv Chronicle site, though clunky, seems to be the best out there. This information used to be easily available on brokers websites. T D Waterhouse used to have a page for each share that listed all the individuals brokers forecasts (EPS, DPS etc etc) plus the consensus. All gone now. Maybe its because the powers that be have tightened up a lot on the provision of opinions and advice as opposed to audited facts?

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Re: Forecast dividends

#418868

Postby valueinvestor123 » June 11th, 2021, 3:55 pm

That was my thought. There is probably pressure from subscription only sites to restrict info available.
Dividenddata in combination with investor’s testicles (forecast page) still seems most reliable at the moment.
Sharecast is very flakey and I can’t quite make out how marketscreener works but am trying..
Thanks in any case.

scrumpyjack wrote:
kiloran wrote:At the end of May, I did a comparison of forecast yields in Sharecast and MarketScreener for the FTSE350, which you might be interested in.

I've uploaded it to http://lemonfoolfinancialsoftware.weebl ... llany.html

--kiloran


The problem with that is that it you need to know the daily share price they are using, which isn't there, so you don't have a forecast dividend in P per share, which would be much more useful.

The Inv Chronicle site, though clunky, seems to be the best out there. This information used to be easily available on brokers websites. T D Waterhouse used to have a page for each share that listed all the individuals brokers forecasts (EPS, DPS etc etc) plus the consensus. All gone now. Maybe its because the powers that be have tightened up a lot on the provision of opinions and advice as opposed to audited facts?

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Re: Forecast dividends

#418871

Postby idpickering » June 11th, 2021, 4:05 pm

To be honest, the events of the last year or so now, and the resultant dividend cancellations that we've all had to suffer, have taught me to not take anything for granted with regards to any dividends I'm hoping to receive in the future. I've given up on 'futurising' I think though, and am happy to check the dividend history of any stocks I'm investigating, along with the yield of that share as of that time. That'll do for me. A rising dividend over time is the preference obviously, but I'm not going to stress about it. Having to wait for my ISA provider Halifax to get it's act together on paying dividends out to me on time is more than enough angst thanks. Why invite more? ;) Nonetheless, this is an interesting topic of discussion, so thanks to the author of the opening post for starting this thread.

Ian.

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Re: Forecast dividends

#418874

Postby valueinvestor123 » June 11th, 2021, 4:18 pm

Yes sure. Historical dividends are probably the best measure to rely on for share selection, in normal conditions. However in abnormal conditions, it's good to use both historical and forecast measures (in my view). For example a share may show a huge current yield based on last year's dps however this can (and usually does) easily mask a cut for the current or next year. And the only way to find out is to either check a 'reliable' source for the forecast or news/RNS, relating to the company regarding the cut announcement. Another way is simply to exclude the first few highest yielders although this has not always proven a good tactic either, in my experience.

idpickering wrote:To be honest, the events of the last year or so now, and the resultant dividend cancellations that we've all had to suffer, have taught me to not take anything for granted with regards to any dividends I'm hoping to receive in the future. I've given up on 'futurising' I think though, and am happy to check the dividend history of any stocks I'm investigating, along with the yield of that share as of that time. That'll do for me. A rising dividend over time is the preference obviously, but I'm not going to stress about it. Having to wait for my ISA provider Halifax to get it's act together on paying dividends out to me on time is more than enough angst thanks. Why invite more? ;) Nonetheless, this is an interesting topic of discussion, so thanks to the author of the opening post for starting this thread.

Ian.

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Re: Forecast dividends

#418884

Postby idpickering » June 11th, 2021, 4:51 pm

valueinvestor123 wrote:Yes sure. Historical dividends are probably the best measure to rely on for share selection, in normal conditions. However in abnormal conditions, it's good to use both historical and forecast measures (in my view). For example a share may show a huge current yield based on last year's dps however this can (and usually does) easily mask a cut for the current or next year. And the only way to find out is to either check a 'reliable' source for the forecast or news/RNS, relating to the company regarding the cut announcement. Another way is simply to exclude the first few highest yielders although this has not always proven a good tactic either, in my experience.



Wise words indeed valueinvestor123. Have a rec/thanks sir! I suppose we should use all the tools available to us. Despite what I said above, I'd still have a glance at dividenddata too.

Ian.

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Re: Forecast dividends

#418889

Postby idpickering » June 11th, 2021, 5:23 pm

idpickering wrote:
valueinvestor123 wrote:Yes sure. Historical dividends are probably the best measure to rely on for share selection, in normal conditions. However in abnormal conditions, it's good to use both historical and forecast measures (in my view). For example a share may show a huge current yield based on last year's dps however this can (and usually does) easily mask a cut for the current or next year. And the only way to find out is to either check a 'reliable' source for the forecast or news/RNS, relating to the company regarding the cut announcement. Another way is simply to exclude the first few highest yielders although this has not always proven a good tactic either, in my experience.



Wise words indeed valueinvestor123. Have a rec/thanks sir! I suppose we should use all the tools available to us. Despite what I said above, I'd still have a glance at dividenddata too.

Ian.


Might I add to my comment above. With regards to the 'extremely' high yield shares, I must admit that if I think the supposed yield on offer was in the 'looks to good to be true' area, imho of course, I'd pass them by, and look elsewhere, for what I'd perceive to be a more reasonable/safer offering. As you say above, "Exclude the first few highest yielders." Evidently, I'd still investigate them before making my mind up. But each to their own of course.

Ian.

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Re: Forecast dividends

#418895

Postby scrumpyjack » June 11th, 2021, 5:37 pm

idpickering wrote:Might I add to my comment above. With regards to the 'extremely' high yield shares, I must admit that if I think the supposed yield on offer was in the 'looks to good to be true' area, imho of course, I'd pass them by, and look elsewhere, for what I'd perceive to be a more reasonable/safer offering. As you say above, "Exclude the first few highest yielders." Evidently, I'd still investigate them before making my mind up. But each to their own of course.

Ian.


Yes but there is a difference between a dividend yield being very high because the company has declined but management have maintained a seriously unearned dividend as they can't bring themselves to face reality, and cyclical companies (like Rio and BHP) which have a policy of paying at least a certain proportion of earnings each year, but no plan to maintain a dividend not covered by earnings. So Rio for example have a forecast yield of over 11% because the rise in commodity prices means they are really coining it in at the moment, but everyone knows that is cyclical and very unlikely to be maintained for ever.


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