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Arb's HYP 15th year

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Arborbridge
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Arb's HYP 15th year

#471734

Postby Arborbridge » January 10th, 2022, 12:04 pm

Arb's HYP 14th year can be seen here:-
viewtopic.php?f=15&t=27126&p=372844&hilit=Arb%27s+HYP+14th+year#p372601

Income and Capital

Income per unit increased by 25.3% but is still 7% below 2019.
Capital price (income unit) increased by 12.3% to 135.01 still well below the peak in 2016 pre-Brexit. The highest point for capital this year was in August at 136.36

Here are the incomes per unit for each year end:-

income |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |     
2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010
6.88 | 5.33 | 7.39 | 6.76 | 6.15 | 6.2 | 6.27 | 5.66 | 5.75 | 5.68 | 4.88 | 3.29


That's a compound growth in income of 6.9% pa since 2010.

Here are the capital values in pence per unit across the year to each Dec 31st:-

capital |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |       
2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010
135.01 | 120.17 | 135.68 | 120.24 | 138.65 | 140.41 | 139.16 | 137.76 | 138.50 | 126.09 | 106.66 | 110.62


A rather less than hoped for 1.8% pa, although actually better than the overall result last year.

Compared with 2020, the result has been good, and confirms the idea that HYP can provide a high and increasing income with a chance of capital gain. I realise that is not good enough for some people, and that there may be (almost certainly are) better ways of achieving growth of capital, and income. However, that description above is what it said on the tin, and it has been doing that for me over the years. Note also, that the actual capital base has increased and now is at a record high, despite the unit price not increasing so much. In other words, I am managing to fund my lifestyle but also increase my wealth.

Portfolio changes

Sales/trimming
BHP, Admiral were trimmed. Tesco and Pennon were reduced due to company actions.

New Shares
RIO and Greencoat - UK Wind were added.

Topups
At various times, the following were topped up: CSN, PHP, IMB, BAT, VOD, LGEN, ABDN. Hopefully, these codes are well known enough not to need expansion.

Charges

The following shows how charges have varied and includes dealing and annual management charges. The number of transactions was the same this year as 2020.


Income Forecast

Last year, the income forecast for 2020 was 5.41. The comment at the time was that this was problematic but might be exceeded. As things turned out, exceeded rather well as the figure for the year was 6.88. The forecast for 2121 comes out at 6.99, but this seems too conservative. As regards what to draw as salary, I have increased the payments by 5%, and will reassess midyear according to RPI and income. The amount I drew down was well covered by my total investment income (three streams, HYP ITs and OEICS) and enabled me to add to capital - which is very satisfactory in a year of covid uncertainty.

Arb.

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Re: Arb's HYP 15th year

#471746

Postby idpickering » January 10th, 2022, 12:54 pm

An outstanding report Arb, thank you.

Ian.

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Re: Arb's HYP 15th year

#471771

Postby funduffer » January 10th, 2022, 2:32 pm

Nice one Arb.

Compared to mine: viewtopic.php?f=15&t=32745

Your income per unit has almost recovered to pre-pandemic (2019) levels, just 7% short. Mine is still 33% down (although it still reflects some dividend drag from 2021 purchases).

My forecast income per unit (based on HYPTUSS forecast yield) is 8% higher than 2021, but I think you use a different forecasting method.

On capital, like yourself, I have yet to recover to the pre-Brexit (2016) level.

FD

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Re: Arb's HYP 15th year

#471775

Postby TUK020 » January 10th, 2022, 2:46 pm

Arborbridge wrote:Arb's HYP 14th year can be seen here:-
viewtopic.php?f=15&t=27126&p=372844&hilit=Arb%27s+HYP+14th+year#p372601

Income and Capital

Income per unit increased by 25.3% but is still 7% below 2019.
Capital price (income unit) increased by 12.3% to 135.01 still well below the peak in 2016 pre-Brexit. The highest point for capital this year was in August at 136.36

Here are the incomes per unit for each year end:-

income |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |     
2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010
6.88 | 5.33 | 7.39 | 6.76 | 6.15 | 6.2 | 6.27 | 5.66 | 5.75 | 5.68 | 4.88 | 3.29


That's a compound growth in income of 6.9% pa since 2010.

Here are the capital values in pence per unit across the year to each Dec 31st:-

capital |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |        |       
2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010
135.01 | 120.17 | 135.68 | 120.24 | 138.65 | 140.41 | 139.16 | 137.76 | 138.50 | 126.09 | 106.66 | 110.62


A rather less than hoped for 1.8% pa, although actually better than the overall result last year.

Compared with 2020, the result has been good, and confirms the idea that HYP can provide a high and increasing income with a chance of capital gain. I realise that is not good enough for some people, and that there may be (almost certainly are) better ways of achieving growth of capital, and income. However, that description above is what it said on the tin, and it has been doing that for me over the years. Note also, that the actual capital base has increased and now is at a record high, despite the unit price not increasing so much. In other words, I am managing to fund my lifestyle but also increase my wealth.

Portfolio changes

Sales/trimming
BHP, Admiral were trimmed. Tesco and Pennon were reduced due to company actions.

New Shares
RIO and Greencoat - UK Wind were added.

Topups
At various times, the following were topped up: CSN, PHP, IMB, BAT, VOD, LGEN, ABDN. Hopefully, these codes are well known enough not to need expansion.

Charges

The following shows how charges have varied and includes dealing and annual management charges. The number of transactions was the same this year as 2020.


Income Forecast

Last year, the income forecast for 2020 was 5.41. The comment at the time was that this was problematic but might be exceeded. As things turned out, exceeded rather well as the figure for the year was 6.88. The forecast for 2121 comes out at 6.99, but this seems too conservative. As regards what to draw as salary, I have increased the payments by 5%, and will reassess midyear according to RPI and income. The amount I drew down was well covered by my total investment income (three streams, HYP ITs and OEICS) and enabled me to add to capital - which is very satisfactory in a year of covid uncertainty.

Arb.

Looking at your figures over time, it seems that there are two distinctly different period: stonking performance 2010-2013, going nowhere thereafter.
Seems like an advert for trying to do some market timing.
Keep you powder dry and wait for a market crash.
When the market does crash, pile in, and wait for the recovery.
When the market has recovered, sell out and repeat.
You wouldn't even need to be terribly accurate at calling the bottom.
Ooops, heretical thoughts...

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Re: Arb's HYP 15th year

#471788

Postby BullDog » January 10th, 2022, 3:52 pm

Thank you. I appreciate the effort it takes to keep and post such records year in year out. I am far too lazy to contemplate such a thing.

Arborbridge
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Re: Arb's HYP 15th year

#471823

Postby Arborbridge » January 10th, 2022, 5:59 pm

BullDog wrote:Thank you. I appreciate the effort it takes to keep and post such records year in year out. I am far too lazy to contemplate such a thing.


Funny you should mention that, because after so many years, I am feeling a bit browned off myself! My system is really just too complex and I'm not clever enough the software side to make it easier.

One might think that my "experiment" has run quite long enough now to prove that my pension plan works and I'm sure if I just let my HYP and other investments run and run without keeping records it would make absolutely no difference to my income. Enough is enough, perhaps........but on the other hand, it would be a shame to drop it all as I have such a continuous record - and in anycase it is a sort of never ending story with something new always round the corner. Or more accurately, ends when I do :cry:

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Re: Arb's HYP 15th year

#471855

Postby BullDog » January 10th, 2022, 7:53 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
BullDog wrote:Thank you. I appreciate the effort it takes to keep and post such records year in year out. I am far too lazy to contemplate such a thing.


Funny you should mention that, because after so many years, I am feeling a bit browned off myself! My system is really just too complex and I'm not clever enough the software side to make it easier.

One might think that my "experiment" has run quite long enough now to prove that my pension plan works and I'm sure if I just let my HYP and other investments run and run without keeping records it would make absolutely no difference to my income. Enough is enough, perhaps........but on the other hand, it would be a shame to drop it all as I have such a continuous record - and in anycase it is a sort of never ending story with something new always round the corner. Or more accurately, ends when I do :cry:

Well thanks, I am sure nobody could quibble for a second if you rightly decided you had more important things to do. For my part, I have particularly found reading the ArbIT threads extremely interesting and I am all the better informed for their existence. Thank you.

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Re: Arb's HYP 15th year

#471975

Postby 88V8 » January 11th, 2022, 11:05 am

Arborbridge wrote:
BullDog wrote:Thank you. I appreciate the effort it takes to keep and post such records year in year out. I am far too lazy to contemplate such a thing.


Funny you should mention that, because after so many years, I am feeling a bit browned off myself! My system is really just too complex and I'm not clever enough the software side to make it easier.

Well it's nice to see the results of one's efforts, in a way that would not be seen if the divis just arrived in the bank.
Also, if one changes strategy, the effect.
And the ability to compare with other strategies one is running.
But for me keeping a spreadsheet of the divis is quite enough bother, not letting errors creep in. The discipline and focus required to maintain an ongoing story .... I appreciate those who take the trouble to post their results here, they represent the pinnacle of our hobby.

V8

Arborbridge
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Re: Arb's HYP 15th year

#471994

Postby Arborbridge » January 11th, 2022, 11:49 am

And here is the traditional part two, giving more detail of the HYP as it is on December 31st 2021:-



I've ranked them in order of capital weighting, which immediately throws up the dilemma with the first share. Diageo is now yielding under 2% and is the biggest capital dollop, so I should consider trimming it according to my usual rules. However, if I do so, the size of the income I actually collect will be getting much smaller, to the point where I might even say it's not worth the bother of keeping tabs on it. Rather like Reckitt, too. However, both will stay for the foreseeable future.
The next table is of interest as it shows the TR of most of the HYP shares. This is handy to see if the dividend is "expensively" bought, and to test what I feel about that! The average position is a crude average over the number of columns I have kept a record of XIRR - I usually log a value twice a year. A couple of oddities you may notice: we have a share with an average position of 34, but only 32 are listed - this is because the HYP used to have many more shares, up to 42, for a while. Another point to note is that not all shares are listed. I exclude any share which was bought less than three years ago as the XIRR numbers are initially nonsense, but become more meaningful as time goes by. Briefly, this is because XIRR assumes that the past will be reproduced over the year - even if that past was only one day in length and the share grew 3%, which would produce a silly annual rate. Incidentally, the median XIRR of these shares is 7.44%.



You will notice that 25 of these shares have been with me for over ten years, and several since 2007 or thereabouts. I could produce a list of all those who have gone before - my Dead Souls, as I call them - if anyone is interested. There are around 15 shares which have either been deliberately sold or taken over since 2010.

Have fun questioning or criticising 8-)

Arb.

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Re: Arb's HYP 15th year

#471999

Postby MDW1954 » January 11th, 2022, 11:56 am

Arborbridge wrote:
Here are the incomes per unit for each year end:-

income |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |     
2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010
6.88 | 5.33 | 7.39 | 6.76 | 6.15 | 6.2 | 6.27 | 5.66 | 5.75 | 5.68 | 4.88 | 3.29


That's a compound growth in income of 6.9% pa since 2010.

Arb.


Arb,

The calculation of CAGR, as you know, involves just two data points -- the first one, and the last one. (So too does the geometric mean, although the actual arithmetic is more elaborate.)

On the other hand, logarithmic linear least squares uses all the data points.

Here is the logarithmic linear least squares growth rate for your income. As you can see, it's lower, at 4.2%.

(Happy to post the usual LLLS chart -- it's just that this program came to hand first. I also have custom-made Excel functions that do the same things, thanks to the help of IAAG a few years back.)

Image

MDW1954

Arborbridge
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Re: Arb's HYP 15th year

#472006

Postby Arborbridge » January 11th, 2022, 12:04 pm

MDW1954 wrote:
The calculation of CAGR, as you know, involves just two data points -- the first one, and the last one. (So too does the geometric mean, although the actual arithmetic is more elaborate.)

On the other hand, logarithmic linear least squares uses all the data points.

Here is the logarithmic linear least squares growth rate for your income. As you can see, it's lower, at 4.2%.

(Happy to post the usual LLLS chart -- it's just that this program came to hand first. I also have custom-made Excel functions that do the same things, thanks to the help of IAAG a few years back.)

Image

MDW1954


Thank you, that's most interesting, if a little disappointing :lol: Probably explains why I don't have that much income to splash around!

Arb.

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Re: Arb's HYP 15th year

#472020

Postby daveh » January 11th, 2022, 12:47 pm

funduffer wrote:Nice one Arb.

Compared to mine: viewtopic.php?f=15&t=32745

Your income per unit has almost recovered to pre-pandemic (2019) levels, just 7% short. Mine is still 33% down (although it still reflects some dividend drag from 2021 purchases).

My forecast income per unit (based on HYPTUSS forecast yield) is 8% higher than 2021, but I think you use a different forecasting method.

On capital, like yourself, I have yet to recover to the pre-Brexit (2016) level.

FD


My HYPish Income portfolio (see here viewtopic.php?f=56&t=32775) is back up above 2019 income in cash terms, a little down on income per accumulation unit (17.69p/units in 2021 compared to 18.32p/unit in 2019) and still 12% down in terms of income units at 7.69p in 21 compared to 8.74p per unit in 2019). Income per income unit is still down below that produced in 2015. mostly because income per income unit has only grown slowly (low single digit figures most years).

In cash terms my actual income in 2021 was well up on what HYPTUSS was forecasting at the start of the year (21% better than HYPTUSS was forecasting). HYPTUSS is predicting this year (2022) will be better by a further 8% over 2021's actual income and hopefully it will get it wrong on the low side again.

Arborbridge
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Re: Arb's HYP 15th year

#472111

Postby Arborbridge » January 11th, 2022, 4:51 pm

daveh wrote:
funduffer wrote:Nice one Arb.

Compared to mine: viewtopic.php?f=15&t=32745

Your income per unit has almost recovered to pre-pandemic (2019) levels, just 7% short. Mine is still 33% down (although it still reflects some dividend drag from 2021 purchases).

My forecast income per unit (based on HYPTUSS forecast yield) is 8% higher than 2021, but I think you use a different forecasting method.

On capital, like yourself, I have yet to recover to the pre-Brexit (2016) level.

FD


My HYPish Income portfolio (see here viewtopic.php?f=56&t=32775) is back up above 2019 income in cash terms, a little down on income per accumulation unit (17.69p/units in 2021 compared to 18.32p/unit in 2019) and still 12% down in terms of income units at 7.69p in 21 compared to 8.74p per unit in 2019). Income per income unit is still down below that produced in 2015. mostly because income per income unit has only grown slowly (low single digit figures most years).

In cash terms my actual income in 2021 was well up on what HYPTUSS was forecasting at the start of the year (21% better than HYPTUSS was forecasting). HYPTUSS is predicting this year (2022) will be better by a further 8% over 2021's actual income and hopefully it will get it wrong on the low side again.


Just to be clear, my portfolio(s) in cash terms, and the dividends from them are both up too, in 2021 compared with 2019 and 2020.

Arb.


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