Strategic Ignorance. Just for some balance.
Posted: January 19th, 2022, 6:17 pm
Have I missed something. What acquisition offer ?
Shares, Investment and Personal Finance Discussion Forums
https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/
Newroad wrote:This one?
https://www.ft.com/content/1f7f4dfd-ebbf-466a-92ae-5b2e4eb5827c
Regards, Newroad
MDW1954 wrote:Strategic ignorance is about not trying to predict the future.
Nice. Will definitely be quoting this. C.MDW1954 wrote:Strategic ignorance is about not trying to predict the future. It isn't about not reading the Sunday newspapers.
Lootman wrote:Isn't it really just a latter-day restatement of the efficient market hypothesis, in one of its forms?
The idea that you can try, try and try again and, despite being smart, educated and diligent, still under-perform the market?
Logically, a belief in strategic ignorance would skew one to invest only in an index fund. Because you would have no rational reason to believe that you could do better.
Urbandreamer wrote:
Then again, Lever. Sure they still do soap products, but I think that most of Unilever's profits come from food (including ice cream) these days.
Urbandreamer wrote:"Strategic ignorance" is actually my main reason or argument for abandoning HYP. I do not accept that over the life of my portfolio things will not change radically. I believe that while there is a huge amount of noise, information about changes in the world should play a part in deciding to hold or replace portfolio components.
Lootman wrote:MDW1954 wrote:Strategic ignorance is about not trying to predict the future.
Isn't it really just a latter-day restatement of the efficient market hypothesis, in one of its forms?
The idea that you can try, try and try again and, despite being smart, educated and diligent, still under-perform the market?
Logically, a belief in strategic ignorance would skew one to invest only in an index fund. Because you would have no rational reason to believe that you could do better.
MDW1954 wrote:Urbandreamer wrote:
Then again, Lever. Sure they still do soap products, but I think that most of Unilever's profits come from food (including ice cream) these days.
Interestingly, in their reportage of the Unilever/ GSK fiasco, the FT reported that Unilever's food businesses would likely be put up for sale, had the deal gone ahead. Liquid soaps etc (which is what we all seem to use these days, it seems) would have been retained!
MDW1954
Arborbridge wrote:As regards the argument concerning SI, don't forget that another element which Pyad proposed, and which goes along with SI, was marketing trading. The companies mentioned from the past would presumably have been traded out, or morphed into something else, or disappeared. The HYPer would then recycle the cash into other suitable shares.
Isn't that how the portfolio changes over time? This is all, of course, dependant on the assertion that this method is better than the novice investor making many choices along the way reacting to events according to his rational and emotional state of mind - which could be up and down like a dog's hind leg.
Arb.
Urbandreamer wrote:Arborbridge wrote:As regards the argument concerning SI, don't forget that another element which Pyad proposed, and which goes along with SI, was marketing trading. The companies mentioned from the past would presumably have been traded out, or morphed into something else, or disappeared. The HYPer would then recycle the cash into other suitable shares.
Isn't that how the portfolio changes over time? This is all, of course, dependant on the assertion that this method is better than the novice investor making many choices along the way reacting to events according to his rational and emotional state of mind - which could be up and down like a dog's hind leg.
Arb.
Having owned a company that "disappeared", can I point out that when it happens, so does what you invested. You can't recycle cash from a company that went out of business. I would recommend "trading out" before that happens. However knowing to do so does, to some degree, requires not being ignorant about the company, what it does and it's market.
What did you mean by "market trading"? I thought that HYP was a Buy-n-hold stratergy. Possibly I misunderstood.
I confess that I thought Pyad was opposed to "tinkering", though I do know that many HYP'ers are more active than passive.
Urbandreamer wrote:Having owned a company that "disappeared", can I point out that when it happens, so does what you invested. You can't recycle cash from a company that went out of business. I would recommend "trading out" before that happens. However knowing to do so does, to some degree, requires not being ignorant about the company, what it does and it's market.
What did you mean by "market trading"? I thought that HYP was a Buy-n-hold stratergy. Possibly I misunderstood.
I confess that I thought Pyad was opposed to "tinkering", though I do know that many HYP'ers are more active than passive.