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Aviva and Sainsburys

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moorfield
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Re: Aviva and Sainsburys

#514399

Postby moorfield » July 14th, 2022, 9:23 pm

kempiejon wrote:I like your earlier thoughts Ian
idpickering wrote:Further to my comment about maybe buying more SSE today above, I've changed my mind on that. My reasoning is much in line with the thoughts aired in the recent posts above. Not a good idea to buy more of a share when you know that there will be a dividend cut in the offing.

The past reduction, they cut in 2020 and the promise of the proposed reduced income would be a line in the sand for me. Will the lower income nudge them below the FTSE100 average yield level?



Well put. However much one may be a fan of SSE shares, this is an income strategy after all, and a high yield one to boot - Why would one buy/top up a share into their HYP which is knowingly about to chop it's dividend? It's hard enough trying to second guess those that might or might not. Bonkers.

Even SSE's ultra high yield doesn't help us as a warning sign here :mrgreen:

Itsallaguess
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Re: Aviva and Sainsburys

#514403

Postby Itsallaguess » July 14th, 2022, 9:38 pm

gigha wrote:
(Sorry don't know how to use the quote function)


Have a watch of this video, and it should hopefully help with replying to posts using quotes -

Lemon Fool reply with working quote -

https://player.vimeo.com/video/396237623


gigha wrote:
I'm finding this top up decision really quite difficult.

Usually when I find initial purchase decisions hard I narrow down to my top two and buy a bit of each. Here I'm already planning two purchases so may consider 3 instead.


I think that's a good approach when there's some doubt with these types of things, so long as dealing costs stay relatively sensible in relation to each separate purchase.

Separately, have you considered that your current HSBA holding is a relatively low weighting in both income and capital, and with a forecast yield of 4.4%, a top-up there would still be a step up in expected income from the capital you've released from BAE, which had a forecast yield of 3.3%?

Also, in an environment of increasing interest rates, banks might be expected to be a sector which might relatively benefit somewhat, compared to many other sectors that come under different pressures due to those rising rates...

Just something to throw into the mix, but looking at your HYP portfolio, I really don't think you'll go far wrong just sticking to your clearly good instincts here, so I'd just go with your gut feelings if there's any doubts with anything...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

kempiejon
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Re: Aviva and Sainsburys

#514404

Postby kempiejon » July 14th, 2022, 9:43 pm

gigha wrote:Kempiejon said " It's interesting that this thread has thrown up quite a few ideas I'd rule out as HYPable like Sasinbury's, SSE, Aviva, Diageo and Shell.
The only option worthy of a look after my first pass would be Rio Tinto which Ian would rule out, "

(Sorry don't know how to use the quote function)

I'm inclined to exclude Rio Tinto on the basis that it already contributes more than 8% of my portfolio income.

I'm finding this top up decision really quite difficult. Usually when I find initial purchase decisions hard I narrow down to my top two and buy a bit of each. Here I'm already planning two purchases so may consider 3 instead.
Gigha

Click the ["] quote marks top right of a message and your reply includes that message. It also alerts the poster. You can then edit from within that reply too.
As you already hold Rio fair enough to rule that our. As I commented in previous replies I'd exclude S'bury, SSE, Shell and AV. for a lack of 5 year rising dividend history and SSE's promised reduction which might drop it down to below average yield too, Diageo has a lower than FTSE average yield.

Rio meets the challenges for me but as you said your portfolio excludes that. Perhaps you could stand a new pick? My quick and dirty check offers iii, only 4% so there are higher yields to be had but private equity looks like a new sector or TRIG Renewables Infrastructure Group with a yield of 5.02%
There'll probably be more, keep looking, I reckon I can always find something to buy/top up.

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Re: Aviva and Sainsburys

#514443

Postby gigha » July 14th, 2022, 11:15 pm

Good thought Terry, thanks. I thought about topslicing gsk but rejected the thought immediately because of the Haleon corporate action and wanted to make sure I wasn't left with too small a Haleon holding. I hadn't considered waiting for Haleon to happen before making my reinvestment decision. I'll do that now and have a look at the dates. Thanks,
Gigha

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Re: Aviva and Sainsburys

#514447

Postby gigha » July 14th, 2022, 11:33 pm

kempiejon wrote:[quote="gigha"


Click the ["] quote marks top right of a message and your reply includes that message. It also alerts the poster. You can then edit from within that reply too.
As you already hold Rio fair enough to rule that our. As I commented in previous replies I'd exclude S'bury, SSE, Shell and AV. for a lack of 5 year rising dividend history and SSE's promised reduction which might drop it down to below average yield too, Diageo has a lower than FTSE average yield.

Rio meets the challenges for me but as you said your portfolio excludes that. Perhaps you could stand a new pick? My quick and dirty check offers iii, only 4% so there are higher yields to be had but private equity looks like a new sector or TRIG Renewables Infrastructure Group with a yield of 5.02%
There'll probably be more, keep looking, I reckon I can always find something to buy/top up.


Thanks for your tip. I'm using it now so fingers crossed it works. Thanks also for your suggestion of a new share. I'm thinking my portfolio is diversified enough, so I've not been seeking a new holding, but wouldn't mind adding one if it jumped out and hit me. I'll have a look at Trig, not looked at it before.

Dod101
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Re: Aviva and Sainsburys

#514451

Postby Dod101 » July 14th, 2022, 11:39 pm

Highly amusing. I too would have recommended topping up HSBC and Glaxo. I have myself just bought more GSK (Glaxo as was) because of the impending split, since that will inevitably reduce the value of my holding. As for HSBC, I would think that they are now on a path to recovery, and so may well be worthy of an increased holding.

This Board though is to me quite weird! gigha is falling in to the trap of stamp collecting. There are any number if shares that he (or I) could buy but enough is enough. He needs to know his own mind and stick to it!

Dod

moorfield
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Re: Aviva and Sainsburys

#514454

Postby moorfield » July 14th, 2022, 11:52 pm

Dod101 wrote:Highly amusing. I too would have recommended topping up HSBC and Glaxo. I have myself just bought more GSK (Glaxo as was) because of the impending split, since that will inevitably reduce the value of my holding. As for HSBC, I would think that they are now on a path to recovery, and so may well be worthy of an increased holding.

This Board though is to me quite weird! gigha is falling in to the trap of stamp collecting. There are any number if shares that he (or I) could buy but enough is enough. He needs to know his own mind and stick to it!

Dod



Well I would not top up a share that I would not buy into a new HYP at the same point in time. The 'H' being high of course, neither of which HSBC, GSK, or arguably SSE (with its pre announced dividend coming....) are. But also we don't seem to like "too high" yields either.

Indeed this board is quite weird ... :P

idpickering
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Re: Aviva and Sainsburys

#514467

Postby idpickering » July 15th, 2022, 5:21 am

As much as I like and respect the comment from Dod above about knowing your own mind, being fickle as I often am, I’ve had a rethink. The comments re SSE and the impending dividend cut are all valid. Today I’m buying more Rio Tinto and not SSE. Either way, I can’t tell the future of any share, save for the SSE impending dividend cut, so RIO it is, thinking a lot longer term than just today of course.

Ian.

Itsallaguess
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Re: Aviva and Sainsburys

#514468

Postby Itsallaguess » July 15th, 2022, 6:20 am

moorfield wrote:
Well I would not top up a share that I would not buy into a new HYP at the same point in time.

The 'H' being high of course, neither of which HSBC, GSK, or arguably SSE (with its pre announced dividend coming....) are.


As with all things though, I think a little 'circumstantial pragmatism' goes a long way with any personal investment strategy, and having myself mentioned HSBC as a possible top-up option earlier in the thread, I think it's worth me highlighting again some of the drivers for that suggestion, because it goes right back to the initial top-slice requirement of BAE that gigha mentioned in his opening post...

Given that the primary driver for this top-up process was an initial sell-down of a BAE holding who's weighting had gone well past 'normal portfolio parameters', and especially given that, as is often the case with these relatively short-term share-price rises that sometimes drive such events, the forecast yield of BAE had also subsequently dropped to 3.3% due to that rapid price escalation, I thought it was worth fleshing things out with a particular focus on that initial driver-event...

So as the primary driver for the process is to de-weight BAE, and having been in similar positions myself over the years with similar over-weighting situations which have also been accompanied by relative yield drops occurring at the same time, I've often been happy to ensure that so long as the de-weight process occurs, then *any* accompanying useful increase in associated dividend income that might be able to be achieved at the same time should be seen as an additional positive benefit of that initial de-weighting process, without necessarily driving an additional 'need' into that de-weighting process for any subsequent purchases to always have to be of the highest yields possible...

That's really the only reason I mentioned HSBC, because I think opening your eyes to the above benefits whilst potentially broadening the scope of options available for capital re-deployment can, I think, often make these processes a lot easier than situations where carrying out the initial de-weighting sales are easy, but where the capital re-deployment might then become a bit of a mental struggle, and so given that gigha had specifically said in one of his later posts that he was 'finding this top up decision really quite difficult', then I thought it was perhaps worth pointing out a potentially more pragmatic approach with a slightly lower yield-horizon that would still achieve the following benefits -

  • Achieves the initial BAE capital de-weighting exercise
  • Increases previous dividend income from that de-weighted capital, so long as any potential target has a yield over 3.3%, which was BAE's yield at the time of the initial de-weighting sale
  • Increases overall portfolio dividend income
  • Increases the aggregate running portfolio yield

Given the initial driver was a capital de-weighting exercise, then returning to my earlier 'circumstantial pragmatism' approach mentioned earlier, I personally think that still being able to achieve all of the above portfolio-level benefits whilst *still* being able to potentially pick more moderately yielding portfolio holdings as recipients of some ex-BAE top-up capital certainly looks to me like being a valid approach to this issue, and certainly where gigha has clearly said that he was struggling to deliver on the round-trip using his current approach...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Aviva and Sainsburys

#514479

Postby Dod101 » July 15th, 2022, 8:07 am

idpickering wrote:As much as I like and respect the comment from Dod above about knowing your own mind, being fickle as I often am, I’ve had a rethink. The comments re SSE and the impending dividend cut are all valid. Today I’m buying more Rio Tinto and not SSE. Either way, I can’t tell the future of any share, save for the SSE impending dividend cut, so RIO it is, thinking a lot longer term than just today of course.

Ian.


Rio is volatile as we all know and like most miners has now moved away I think from the #progressive' dividend approach. Anyway I hope ity works out well for you.

Dod

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Re: Aviva and Sainsburys

#514482

Postby idpickering » July 15th, 2022, 8:17 am

Dod101 wrote:
idpickering wrote:As much as I like and respect the comment from Dod above about knowing your own mind, being fickle as I often am, I’ve had a rethink. The comments re SSE and the impending dividend cut are all valid. Today I’m buying more Rio Tinto and not SSE. Either way, I can’t tell the future of any share, save for the SSE impending dividend cut, so RIO it is, thinking a lot longer term than just today of course.

Ian.


Rio is volatile as we all know and like most miners has now moved away I think from the #progressive' dividend approach. Anyway I hope ity works out well for you.

Dod


Thanks for your input. No worries either way. I get that it’s in a cyclical industry and accept that. Imho, it’s better to buy them, ie RIO, whilst they’re cheaper. As to what happens with the share price going forward, who know? And I’m ok with that too. As I type RIO are down 2%. Does that faze me? Not in the least. I’m getting an even better bargain imho. ;)

Ian.

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Re: Aviva and Sainsburys

#514498

Postby kempiejon » July 15th, 2022, 9:31 am

Careful Ian, you'll fall foul of chasing too high ultra yield, I see RIO is knocking on the door of 15% and nearly 20% with the special - historic. If we can trust forecasts from sharecast.com a similar yield for next year too I assume without a special predicted.
https://www.sharecast.com/equity/Rio_Tinto

idpickering
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Re: Aviva and Sainsburys

#514536

Postby idpickering » July 15th, 2022, 10:51 am

kempiejon wrote:Careful Ian, you'll fall foul of chasing too high ultra yield, I see RIO is knocking on the door of 15% and nearly 20% with the special - historic. If we can trust forecasts from sharecast.com a similar yield for next year too I assume without a special predicted.
https://www.sharecast.com/equity/Rio_Tinto


Thanks for your words of caution. I’m aware of the risks and and am ok to take them. That’ll be it for RIO for some time I think. I bought more of the share this January too.

Anyway. That’s enough about my investing, let’s get back OT for this thread.

Ian.

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Re: Aviva and Sainsburys

#514649

Postby kempiejon » July 15th, 2022, 3:52 pm

gigha wrote:I've just topsliced my holdings of British Aerospace and Astrazeneca because their capital value was well over 1.5 times the median value of my holdings (a la Terry). So I've now got the proceeds plus some accumulated dividends to reinvest.

kempiejon wrote:I was looking at my AZN the other day and wondering if I might uncharacteristically sell some and swap into a higher yield. I probably won't.
But I wouldn't pick Aviva, the income history is too patchy for my taste. I bought in 2006/7 and every year since they've paid me less than they did then. I have seen 4 cuts, after a few years of rebuilding dividends we see another setback.
Sainsbury, I hold but haven't looked at it's prospects, a glance at dividend history over 5 and 10 years show a number of cuts.


Re the initial post on triming but taking a little further OT and concluding a thread for me, I uncharacteristically and opportunistically trimmed my Astra Zeneca by around 30%, it's had a good run, is yielding 2.5% and hasn't shown much increase in income in 10 years.
No point selling if you don't know where to re-deploy or want to go into cash. The money has gone to Middlefield Canadian Income trust, apparently "The UK’s only listed Canadian equity fund focused on high income – admitted to the FTSE UK All-Share Index in 2011"
Not a propper HYP share a collective Closed Ended Investment Company. It yields 4.49% and invests in Canadian financials, utilities, real Estate and utilities. Something a bit different for me. It's discount to NAV is on a bit of a high.

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Re: Aviva and Sainsburys

#521333

Postby PeterGreenhill » August 10th, 2022, 12:53 pm

Aviva dividend up 40% and SP up 10% today on better than expected results.

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Re: Aviva and Sainsburys

#521440

Postby Itsallaguess » August 10th, 2022, 6:47 pm

PeterGreenhill wrote:
Aviva dividend up 40%


Don't forget the recent share consolidation...

I've just checked my expected 2022 interim payment compared to the 2021 interim, and on cash terms my September payment will be around 6.4% higher this year...

There was the associated return of capital as well, of course, but I just thought I'd temper the 'Aviva dividend up 40%' a little...

Some good results though, and perhaps this perennial under-performer has finally turned the corner*...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

* This is a recorded message...

Breelander
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Re: Aviva and Sainsburys

#521773

Postby Breelander » August 11th, 2022, 10:46 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:Don't forget the recent share consolidation...
I've just checked my expected 2022 interim payment compared to the 2021 interim, and on cash terms my September payment will be around 6.4% higher this year...
There was the associated return of capital as well, of course, but I just thought I'd temper the 'Aviva dividend up 40%' a little...
Some good results though, and perhaps this perennial under-performer has finally turned the corner*...


Quite, I've just done the same calculation myself with the same results. A 6.4% increase in dividends received would have been nice enough on its own - with a lump of cash from the special+consolidation as well it's a very pleasing result.

* This is a recorded message...

:lol:

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Re: Aviva and Sainsburys

#521891

Postby PeterGreenhill » August 12th, 2022, 12:30 pm

I reinvested the proceeds of the return of capital back into Aviva so I have the same number of shares as before the share consolidation. So for me the dividend is up 40%.


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