Greencoat UK Wind Plc (UKW) -Increase in Annual Dividend & Commencement of Share Buyback Programme.

[monabri]

I note that the shareprice of UKW has fallen to just over 127p per share. The yield " on offer" is looking attractive and the 12m average discount on NAV has doubled from 11% to 22%. Surely a top up opportunity (or a falling knife)?

[simoan]

I note that the shareprice of UKW has fallen to just over 127p per share. The yield " on offer" is looking attractive and the 12m average discount on NAV has doubled from 11% to 22%. Surely a top up opportunity (or a falling knife)?

Personally, I would wait until the FY23 results statement on 29th February, particularly as we know from other companies that the wind has not met expectations. Earnings forecasts for FY23 have been dropping recently and the share price has simply followed. But each to their own...

[MrFoolish]

Personally, I would wait until the FY23 results statement on 29th February, particularly as we know from other companies that the wind has not met expectations. Earnings forecasts for FY23 have been dropping recently and the share price has simply followed. But each to their own...

What do you mean by the wind has not met expectations?

[Dod101]

I note that the shareprice of UKW has fallen to just over 127p per share. The yield " on offer" is looking attractive and the 12m average discount on NAV has doubled from 11% to 22%. Surely a top up opportunity (or a falling knife)?

Personally, I would wait until the FY23 results statement on 29th February, particularly as we know from other companies that the wind has not met expectations. Earnings forecasts for FY23 have been dropping recently and the share price has simply followed. But each to their own...

I bought about the year end and at first was doing well but recently the price has fallen back again. Their financials look good but a bit like SSE renewables I suspect that the very calm conditions for much of this winter will affect their earnings, although hopefully they will keep up their dividends as they are quite cash rich, or were the last time I looked.

Dod

[Dod101]

Personally, I would wait until the FY23 results statement on 29th February, particularly as we know from other companies that the wind has not met expectations. Earnings forecasts for FY23 have been dropping recently and the share price has simply followed. But each to their own...

What do you mean by the wind has not met expectations?

It has been flat calm for much of the winter (like today, where I am in Scotland)

Dod

[kempiejon]

I note that the shareprice of UKW has fallen to just over 127p per share. The yield " on offer" is looking attractive and the 12m average discount on NAV has doubled from 11% to 22%. Surely a top up opportunity (or a falling knife)?

I hadn't noticed that hike in final dividend to 3.43p. That's unusual, previously they've paid the same amount each year, this in a bump for the final quater. I guess that means next year dividends will be the same amount, at leat until Q4. So 4 more 3.43p next near and that's 10% yield on 127p sp. A FTSE250, the market cap is under £3B which I have in mind as cut from large cap for HYPables but as mentioned it has fallen 20% odd recently.

[MrFoolish]

What do you mean by the wind has not met expectations?

It has been flat calm for much of the winter (like today, where I am in Scotland)

Dod

I tried a few random Scottish locations on BBC weather and I guess you must live somewhere with its own micro-climate.

[simoan]

Personally, I would wait until the FY23 results statement on 29th February, particularly as we know from other companies that the wind has not met expectations. Earnings forecasts for FY23 have been dropping recently and the share price has simply followed. But each to their own...

I bought about the year end and at first was doing well but recently the price has fallen back again. Their financials look good but a bit like SSE renewables I suspect that the very calm conditions for much of this winter will affect their earnings, although hopefully they will keep up their dividends as they are quite cash rich, or were the last time I looked.

Dod

Unlike other similar companies, UKW seems to have consistently had a dividend covered by cashflow, so good news more generally. However, broker EPS estimates for FY23 have been downgraded from 16p to 13p since the end of November. Seems to me the share price has simply followed track. I prefer to invest based on the most up to date information and so waiting a couple of weeks seems sensible to me, but other may wish to second guess how good the results will be and invest based purely on the 10p dividend.

[simoan]

Personally, I would wait until the FY23 results statement on 29th February, particularly as we know from other companies that the wind has not met expectations. Earnings forecasts for FY23 have been dropping recently and the share price has simply followed. But each to their own...

What do you mean by the wind has not met expectations?

See comments by SSE Renewables in their recent trading update:

SSE Renewables output was 1.3TWh or around 15% behind plan for the nine months to 31 December 2023, largely due to exceptionally still and dry weather conditions

[funduffer]

I bought about the year end and at first was doing well but recently the price has fallen back again. Their financials look good but a bit like SSE renewables I suspect that the very calm conditions for much of this winter will affect their earnings, although hopefully they will keep up their dividends as they are quite cash rich, or were the last time I looked.

Dod

We have had 10 named storms this winter - a record!

Agnes 27 - 28 September 2023
Babet 18 - 21 October 2023
Ciarán 1 - 2 November 2023
Debi 13 November 2023
Elin 9 December 2023
Fergus 10 December 2023
Gerrit 27 - 28 December 2023
Henk 2 January 2024
Isha 21 - 22 January 2024
Jocelyn 23 - 24 January 2024

FD

[simoan]

I bought about the year end and at first was doing well but recently the price has fallen back again. Their financials look good but a bit like SSE renewables I suspect that the very calm conditions for much of this winter will affect their earnings, although hopefully they will keep up their dividends as they are quite cash rich, or were the last time I looked.

Dod

We have had 10 named storms this winter - a record!

Agnes 27 - 28 September 2023
Babet 18 - 21 October 2023
Ciarán 1 - 2 November 2023
Debi 13 November 2023
Elin 9 December 2023
Fergus 10 December 2023
Gerrit 27 - 28 December 2023
Henk 2 January 2024
Isha 21 - 22 January 2024
Jocelyn 23 - 24 January 2024

FD

So you are unaware that the turbines turn off when the wind speed exceeds a certain limit then? Their maximum output occurs at 27mph according to National Grid.

[MrFoolish]

So you are unaware that the turbines turn off when the wind speed exceeds a certain limit then? Their maximum output occurs at 27mph according to National Grid.

I'm sure this is true. But the peak of these storms tends to pass through rather quickly does it not?

[simoan]

So you are unaware that the turbines turn off when the wind speed exceeds a certain limit then? Their maximum output occurs at 27mph according to National Grid.

I'm sure this is true. But the peak of these storms tends to pass through rather quickly does it not?

Sorry, I'm trying to stick to facts only and this is getting Off topic for this forum. The point is, more wind does not mean more electricity output, and on average means less.

[MrFoolish]

Sorry, I'm trying to stick to facts only and this is getting Off topic for this forum. The point is, more wind does not mean more electricity output, and on average means less.

Well I was only asking but hey ho.

[idpickering]

It has been flat calm for much of the winter (like today, where I am in Scotland)

Dod

I tried a few random Scottish locations on BBC weather and I guess you must live somewhere with its own micro-climate.

I must admit I smiled at what Dod said above. Where we live in Orkney it's permanently windy it seems! It's a very trying place to live to be honest, but let's not digress.

Ian.

[Dod101]

I tried a few random Scottish locations on BBC weather and I guess you must live somewhere with its own micro-climate.

I must admit I smiled at what Dod said above. Where we live in Orkney it's permanently windy it seems! It's a very trying place to live to be honest, but let's not digress.

Ian.

All I can say is that I live not far from the Braes of Doune, which is one of the wind farms owned by UKW and it has been flat calm there quite a bit this winter, such as in fact, the last 48 hours or so.

As simoan says there is an optimal wind speed for electricity production and of course for those who are sceptical, SSE reported exactly the same lack of wind in their recent update.

Dod

[Gerry557]

I thought that the SSE results had played a factor in a lot of the renewables SP dropping. I think there is also an issue with solar but haven't actually pinned that one down yet. Not sure if there is a connection issue and or choosing solar as a back up by National Grid.

Whatever it is its hammered their respective SP. The lower output average generally and windfall taxes won't help. I have also seen a few damaged wind turbine videos doing the rounds from the storms. I don't know the full effect of how this affects the owners. Obviously output will be reduced but is there a warranty or some sort of guarantee from the manufacturer or operator say a faulty brake be the cause.

Hopefully this is just a temporary issue. The solar one might be sorted next year from reports. So it might offer an opportunity to buy the shares but finding the low point is always tricky. I added more TRIG and FSFL on Friday so Sod's Law say it has more to drop. I might add more of these Monday.

[flyer61]

I'd be weary of adding to soon.....the market has got wind of what is likely to be in the forthcoming results and has reacted accordingly. Will wait to see what the cover for the 10p dividend looks like.

[simoan]

I'd be weary of adding to soon.....the market has got wind of what is likely to be in the forthcoming results and has reacted accordingly. Will wait to see what the cover for the 10p dividend looks like.

Joking aside, the brokers who make forecasts have more access to company management than us plebs. My data shows only 3 brokers covering UKW and the consensus EPS for FY23 is 12.9p, so the dividend would be covered by earnings. However, that’s a big drop from last years 20p of earnings, so dividend cover has dropped significantly.

[csearle]

If a share's price basically correlates with the weather then I would look at the average windiness of the locations they have their turbines and see (as best one can) if last year's was part of a blip or a trend. C.