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Renewable + conventional trends

dspp
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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357750

Postby dspp » November 18th, 2020, 1:45 pm

supremetwo wrote:How many megawatts does our present car and van transport consume?

How much extra electricity will be needed to replace it?

How much will it cost to upgrade the grid and all the substations to provide that extra power needed for electric vehicles?

How long will it take to dig up all the roads to properties for extra-capacity cabling?

How will that be paid for?

Will there be off-peak rates to spread the load?

I could go on - there are so many unanswered questions and an almost-total lack of data on which to make a judgement.

Unfair to load all those householders without vehicles with higher electricity charges, so smart chargers essential to add extra per unit if you charge a car and inevitably to add a road-fund charge to your bill at the same time.


s2,

Blame the government that span no-change into a ten-point plan to claim credit with no substance for er, no substance.

You'll find the answers to most of the questions you raise in the various threads on this O&G&E section, over the past several years.

This really is not that big a deal for the overall energy system, certainly the sky is not falling in.

The biggest issue in the UK will be access to overnight (slow) charging for those with no off-street parking, and there I fear the phrase that needs to be uttered, but is being avoided, is "not-for-profit". The intention by quite a few of the normal culprits is I fear blatant price gouging.

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357754

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » November 18th, 2020, 1:59 pm

Thanks I won't quote, but I have been told when looking to go full BEV from PHEV that my 7kw charger is not powerful enough. Amongst others, this is PodPoint (my charger supplier) telling me. Even if we have a 100 x 7kw chargers down the street all switched on overnight for 8 hours, this is not the same as boiling say 30 x 3kw kettle at halftime for five minutes. That's 700kw load for more or less all night. Multiplied by every street in the UK. I realise the true outcome is yet to be seen and it's very rough numbers, but indicative of real issues ahead. Buy copper miners?

RVF

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357765

Postby Dod101 » November 18th, 2020, 2:26 pm

I plan to buy a new car in the spring but it will be an old fashioned petrol fuelled one. I will let the infrastructure for charging points get sorted first although a non charging hybrid seems to me to be a sensible compromise for now.

Dod

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357787

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » November 18th, 2020, 3:24 pm

richfool wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
richfool wrote:And where will all the recharging points be for these "all electric" cars, including those for people who only have street parking or live in apartments.

My suggestion would be that they will be on their house outside walls, next to where the gas/leccy box is right now. Don't you think?

Matt

For people who have no parking adjacent to where they live and park 100 yards up the street on the other side of the road, assuming they can even get a parking space that close to home?

Good point. One can assume that 1000s (1000000s) of charging points will need to be installed close to all such residences.

Maybe there won't be a large enough number of charging points installed across the country and it will force poorer people (who can't afford their own parking space) out of car ownership.

I can only speculate.

Matt

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357841

Postby 88V8 » November 18th, 2020, 4:57 pm

This is all becoming a bit carish, but that will be the green interface for most households... I have three ICE cars which have already far exceeded the average 14 year scrap age of overcomplex modern barges - 30, 46 and 57 years old.

Given my age, I will probably make it to the end of my driving life without needing to change any of them, but I await with interest the prospect of re-powering them with an electric powertrain. Presently there are very few retrofit offerings for classics and they are £££.

Fast charging... from what I've read, fast charging degrades the battery so this does not seem a viable substitute for a home charger.

And the idea that a 20kw charger equates to a 3kw kettle, maybe on average but if it's anything like my admittedly 50 year-old charger, it charges a lot more at the outset and then tapers off. Whereas a 3kw kettle is a 3kw kettle.

And the politicos will have a hard time convincing us that we have to supplement reducing fuel duty revenues with road pricing while we are still paying fuel duty.

Oh well, Boris will be comfortably out of it by the time the various sh1t hits the fan.

V8

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357847

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » November 18th, 2020, 5:08 pm

Dod101 wrote:I plan to buy a new car in the spring but it will be an old fashioned petrol fuelled one. I will let the infrastructure for charging points get sorted first although a non charging hybrid seems to me to be a sensible compromise for now.

Dod

Slightly off topic but just to say, RVF moved from being a long time diesel driver to a Toyota Yaris hybrid just over four years ago. Used mainly for short journeys and the odd longer one to "give it a run out". It easily manages around the 80mpg mark. As you would expect from a Toyota it is 100 per cent reliable and 100 per cent trouble free. Now I am retired and have a PHEV as well at home, I think the Toyota will likely last at least another ten years. Possibly longer. Regarding battery replacement, if anyone was going to ask, experience from the UK's very large Prius taxi fleet is that battery life far exceeds anything previously anticipated. And of course the price of them continues to drop as production ramps up and technology improves.

RVF

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#357884

Postby dspp » November 18th, 2020, 6:42 pm

88V8 wrote:This is all becoming a bit carish, but that will be the green interface for most households... I have three ICE cars which have already far exceeded the average 14 year scrap age of overcomplex modern barges - 30, 46 and 57 years old.

Given my age, I will probably make it to the end of my driving life without needing to change any of them, but I await with interest the prospect of re-powering them with an electric powertrain. Presently there are very few retrofit offerings for classics and they are £££.

Fast charging... from what I've read, fast charging degrades the battery so this does not seem a viable substitute for a home charger.

And the idea that a 20kw charger equates to a 3kw kettle, maybe on average but if it's anything like my admittedly 50 year-old charger, it charges a lot more at the outset and then tapers off. Whereas a 3kw kettle is a 3kw kettle.

And the politicos will have a hard time convincing us that we have to supplement reducing fuel duty revenues with road pricing while we are still paying fuel duty.

Oh well, Boris will be comfortably out of it by the time the various sh1t hits the fan.

V8


1. Repowering tends to be dismally uneconomic. Fun mind you, but these days it tends to be Tesla guts that get used. Because they are the best guts.
2. Fast charging vs slow charging re degradation is not that big an issue for any packs with good characteristics and good thermal management.
3. Tapering is very definitely an issue, that is why optimum use for long (>200 mile) journeys tends to be to charge from ~20% SoC to ~60-70% SoC unless there are lengthy charger-deserts to cross.
4. Most home-charging will be slow charging, and at >80% SoC, so from say 80% to say 90% (because it is generally best not to go to 100% as that is something that needlessly done provokes battery degradation via dendrites) is generally similar to your average kettle/oven/similar, i.e. no-big-deal. (see the taper issue at 3).

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#358859

Postby tramrider » November 21st, 2020, 6:11 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Thanks I won't quote, but I have been told when looking to go full BEV from PHEV that my 7kw charger is not powerful enough. Amongst others, this is PodPoint (my charger supplier) telling me. Even if we have a 100 x 7kw chargers down the street all switched on overnight for 8 hours, this is not the same as boiling say 30 x 3kw kettle at halftime for five minutes. That's 700kw load for more or less all night. Multiplied by every street in the UK. I realise the true outcome is yet to be seen and it's very rough numbers, but indicative of real issues ahead. Buy copper miners?

RVF


We have had our second hand BEV for a year and a half and got a 7kW PodPoint installed with it inside our garage. I think we have only used this charger twice, ever. We just use the 2.5kW granny cable charger most of the time, particularly when we have enough sunshine and power from our 3.8kw solar panels to run it.

A better way of looking at your charging needs is to think of your annual and daily car mileage. Most BEV cars are now delivering around 4 miles per kWh. We do 8000 miles per year, which converts to 2000 kWh per year, which averages 6kWh per day. Typically we use the granny charger for less than 3 hours per day. Actually it is a lot less as we use the motorway services rapid chargers during our long journeys. So the need for 100 x 7kW chargers on your street is probably overstated, unless they all have long commutes every working day.

After considering your annual mileage, if you are worried, just get a PHEV for the next few years and only charge it for local journeys. ;)

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360204

Postby richfool » November 26th, 2020, 10:58 am

Picked up from the HL website under SSE news, but is also in several other sources:

UK government to double subsidies for renewable energy in 2021

(Sharecast News) - The UK government plans to double the amount of green energy it will subsidise in 2021 as it agrees to include onshore power projects.
The projects could support up to 12GW of renewable energy or at least enough to charge up to 20m electric vehicles a year.

Energy companies will compete for contracts in auction at the end of 2021 which is set to be almost double the size of the last 5.8GW auction in 2019.

The next round will include three separate auctions for different renewable energy technologies to compete for a contract.

There will be one "pot" for offshore wind projects and another for less-established technologies.

The third pot will allow onshore wind and solar farms to compete for a support contract for the first time in six years.

Kwasi Kwarteng, the energy minister, said the new auction is part of the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's 10-point climate plan, which includes a £12bn public investment, to help the country reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

The plan will see the UK's offshore windfarms grow four-fold to 40GW in the next ten years and an expansion of EVs on British roads.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-sear ... lc-ord-50p
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/uk-governmen ... qykqh.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... y-projects

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360224

Postby dspp » November 26th, 2020, 11:28 am

richfool wrote:Picked up from the HL website under SSE news, but is also in several other sources:

UK government to double subsidies for renewable energy in 2021

(Sharecast News) - The UK government plans to double the amount of green energy it will subsidise in 2021 as it agrees to include onshore power projects.
The projects could support up to 12GW of renewable energy or at least enough to charge up to 20m electric vehicles a year.

Energy companies will compete for contracts in auction at the end of 2021 which is set to be almost double the size of the last 5.8GW auction in 2019.

The next round will include three separate auctions for different renewable energy technologies to compete for a contract.

There will be one "pot" for offshore wind projects and another for less-established technologies.

The third pot will allow onshore wind and solar farms to compete for a support contract for the first time in six years.

Kwasi Kwarteng, the energy minister, said the new auction is part of the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's 10-point climate plan, which includes a £12bn public investment, to help the country reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

The plan will see the UK's offshore windfarms grow four-fold to 40GW in the next ten years and an expansion of EVs on British roads.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-sear ... lc-ord-50p
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/uk-governmen ... qykqh.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... y-projects


See https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... e_page.pdf for full 100-page text of the wider 'infrastructure' stuff,
- dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360231

Postby richfool » November 26th, 2020, 11:51 am

It's difficult to interpret what that actually might mean to potential investors in renewable and non-renewable energy, (or beyond my pay grade!).

If the Government plans to continue/resurrect subsidies for renewable energy, will that mean?

that the income paid by renewable energy trusts will be better under-written i.e. safer, more reliable and ongoing longer?

that the subsidies and increasing amounts of energy produced from these sources will further push down energy prices and undermine the income and value of such investments? (renewable and non renewable, i.e. including oil prices)

will the move to Electricity and EV's increase energy demand and thus push up energy/electricity prices and cause these investments to increase in value and provide investors with even more income?

Or might it be safer to stick to investing in the gold miner's shovels, e.g. the manufacturers of wind turbine blades and solar panels?

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360248

Postby UncleEbenezer » November 26th, 2020, 12:21 pm

richfool wrote:It's difficult to interpret what that actually might mean to potential investors in renewable and non-renewable energy.

If the Government plans to continue/resurrect subsidies for renewable energy, will that mean?

that the income paid by renewable energy trusts will be better under-written i.e. safer, more reliable and ongoing longer?

More assets getting built won't hurt them, and will help vindicate their regular raising of new funds. But neither will it be a windfall: that falls to building new assets, not operating existing ones.
that the subsidies and increasing amounts of energy produced from these sources will further push down energy prices and undermine the income and value of such investments? (renewable and non renewable, i.e. including oil prices)


Oil and gas, maybe: we're finally beginning to gnaw away at its lunch - or at least the growth thereof in the UK market. So long as there isn't another big u-turn. But bearing in mind the big new markets electricty is to fill (cars, home boilers, to name only the consumer-facing ones), there's a long, long still way to go.

And bear in mind TPTB speak with forked tongue as they continue to support expansion of fossil fuels.

will the move to Electricity and EV's increase energy demand and thus push up energy/electricity prices and cause these investments to increase in value and provide investors with even more income?

The potential for income - upwards or downwards - will always be priced in to the assets when the green infrastructure funds acquire them.

Or might it be safer to stick to investing in the gold miner's shovels, e.g. the manufacturers of wind turbine blades and solar panels?


That's been a commodity market for a while: the question there is China vs new emerging manufacturing hubs. But I imagine it can't hurt the likes of SSE, developing major new assets (or maybe it can - by helping competitors undercut Dogger). And more interestingly, developers of more interesting technologies (like tides and waves) and of snake-oil solutions (like carbon-capture or biofuels) - at least until the next U-turn.

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360273

Postby daveh » November 26th, 2020, 1:14 pm

richfool wrote:It's difficult to interpret what that actually might mean to potential investors in renewable and non-renewable energy, (or beyond my pay grade!).

If the Government plans to continue/resurrect subsidies for renewable energy, will that mean?

that the income paid by renewable energy trusts will be better under-written i.e. safer, more reliable and ongoing longer?

that the subsidies and increasing amounts of energy produced from these sources will further push down energy prices and undermine the income and value of such investments? (renewable and non renewable, i.e. including oil prices)

will the move to Electricity and EV's increase energy demand and thus push up energy/electricity prices and cause these investments to increase in value and provide investors with even more income?

Or might it be safer to stick to investing in the gold miner's shovels, e.g. the manufacturers of wind turbine blades and solar panels?



You know how CFDs work? AIUI the government may not have to pay out any subsidy - in fact the government might get paid by the companies (ie us the user). The government is agreeing to pay a minimum price for electricity from a developer's generation asset for a set time (usually 15 years for the ones I've seen). If the price the company can sell the electricity at is less than the strike price the Government make up the difference. If the price is more than the strike price the company pays the Government the difference*. It guarantees the company a known amount of money per MWh so reduces the risk ( providing they have calculated the strike price correctly). For us the user it seems to have been forcing down the future price of electricity as the strike prices are pretty low (see https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/data-portal/al ... le-markets). Wholesale prices have been falling from £50-60/MWh in 2018 to about £30/MWh today.

For example Dogger bank wind farm is 3x 1200MW wind farms https://www.investegate.co.uk/sse-plc-- ... 00065950G/ and has contracted to receive £39.65/MWh for 1/3 from 2023/24 and £41.61/MWh for 2/3 of the total capacity from 2024/25 all in 2012 prices raising by CPI. (So on todays wholesale price they'd be being paid a subsidy, if they'd been generating in 2018 the company would have been paying the LCCC.

Looking at the Dogger bank example they are going to receive £3.6b (in 2012 money) over 15 years (if it generates the predicted amount of power) yet the committed debt facility to build it is £5.5b in todays money and £3.6b is only ~£4.3b in todays money. Making a profit on these generation assets is going to be tight even if everything is built to time and on budget. Or is the profit coming beyond year 15 when hopefully the debt has been paid off?


* government = Low Carbon Contracts Company (LCCC)

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360331

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » November 26th, 2020, 4:05 pm

richfool wrote:Picked up from the HL website under SSE news, but is also in several other sources:

UK government to double subsidies for renewable energy in 2021

(Sharecast News) - The UK government plans to double the amount of green energy it will subsidise in 2021 as it agrees to include onshore power projects.
The projects could support up to 12GW of renewable energy or at least enough to charge up to 20m electric vehicles a year.

Energy companies will compete for contracts in auction at the end of 2021 which is set to be almost double the size of the last 5.8GW auction in 2019.

The next round will include three separate auctions for different renewable energy technologies to compete for a contract.

There will be one "pot" for offshore wind projects and another for less-established technologies.

The third pot will allow onshore wind and solar farms to compete for a support contract for the first time in six years.

Kwasi Kwarteng, the energy minister, said the new auction is part of the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's 10-point climate plan, which includes a £12bn public investment, to help the country reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

The plan will see the UK's offshore windfarms grow four-fold to 40GW in the next ten years and an expansion of EVs on British roads.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-sear ... lc-ord-50p
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/uk-governmen ... qykqh.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... y-projects

Hi Rich,

It's weird that the SPs of the likes of UKW and TRIG don't seem to have responded positively. What am I missing?

Matt

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360353

Postby richfool » November 26th, 2020, 4:32 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
richfool wrote:Picked up from the HL website under SSE news, but is also in several other sources:

UK government to double subsidies for renewable energy in 2021

(Sharecast News) - The UK government plans to double the amount of green energy it will subsidise in 2021 as it agrees to include onshore power projects.
The projects could support up to 12GW of renewable energy or at least enough to charge up to 20m electric vehicles a year.

Energy companies will compete for contracts in auction at the end of 2021 which is set to be almost double the size of the last 5.8GW auction in 2019.

The next round will include three separate auctions for different renewable energy technologies to compete for a contract.

There will be one "pot" for offshore wind projects and another for less-established technologies.

The third pot will allow onshore wind and solar farms to compete for a support contract for the first time in six years.

Kwasi Kwarteng, the energy minister, said the new auction is part of the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's 10-point climate plan, which includes a £12bn public investment, to help the country reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

The plan will see the UK's offshore windfarms grow four-fold to 40GW in the next ten years and an expansion of EVs on British roads.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-sear ... lc-ord-50p
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/uk-governmen ... qykqh.html
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... y-projects

Hi Rich,

It's weird that the SPs of the likes of UKW and TRIG don't seem to have responded positively. What am I missing?

Matt

Yes, agreed, along with JLEN (their SP's and NAV's have weakened).

Maybe its safer to stick with the gold miner's shovels, e.g. the manufacturers of wind turbine blades and solar panels?

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360356

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » November 26th, 2020, 4:43 pm

richfool wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:

Hi Rich,

It's weird that the SPs of the likes of UKW and TRIG don't seem to have responded positively. What am I missing?

Matt

Yes, agreed, along with JLEN (their SP's and NAV's have weakened).

Maybe its safer to stick with the gold miner's shovels, e.g. the manufacturers of wind turbine blades and solar panels?

Hmm...maybe...perhaps it's just due to the falling cost of energy. And if more invest in it, then eventually it becomes a cheaper commodity.

Matt

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360412

Postby dspp » November 26th, 2020, 6:24 pm

"Britain has fired up some of its last remaining coal power plants to help keep the lights on as the country’s wind turbines slow over a few days and the demand for electricity rises......The electricity system operator said that the UK still had enough electricity to meet demand, but the cushion of extra power supplies was lower than usual “owing to a number of factors” including “varying renewable generation levels and colder temperatures”."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -shortfall

more batteries required,

regards, dspp

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360448

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » November 26th, 2020, 9:04 pm

dspp wrote:"Britain has fired up some of its last remaining coal power plants to help keep the lights on as the country’s wind turbines slow over a few days and the demand for electricity rises......The electricity system operator said that the UK still had enough electricity to meet demand, but the cushion of extra power supplies was lower than usual “owing to a number of factors” including “varying renewable generation levels and colder temperatures”."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -shortfall

more batteries required,

regards, dspp

Step forward GRID who have just had an oversubscribed share placing for exactly that purpose. It won't be their last.

RVF

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360461

Postby richfool » November 26th, 2020, 10:29 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
dspp wrote:"Britain has fired up some of its last remaining coal power plants to help keep the lights on as the country’s wind turbines slow over a few days and the demand for electricity rises......The electricity system operator said that the UK still had enough electricity to meet demand, but the cushion of extra power supplies was lower than usual “owing to a number of factors” including “varying renewable generation levels and colder temperatures”."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -shortfall

more batteries required,

regards, dspp

Step forward GRID who have just had an oversubscribed share placing for exactly that purpose. It won't be their last.

RVF

GRID, in preference to GSF?

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Re: Renewable + conventional trends

#360511

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » November 27th, 2020, 8:34 am

richfool wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
dspp wrote:"Britain has fired up some of its last remaining coal power plants to help keep the lights on as the country’s wind turbines slow over a few days and the demand for electricity rises......The electricity system operator said that the UK still had enough electricity to meet demand, but the cushion of extra power supplies was lower than usual “owing to a number of factors” including “varying renewable generation levels and colder temperatures”."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -shortfall

more batteries required,

regards, dspp

Step forward GRID who have just had an oversubscribed share placing for exactly that purpose. It won't be their last.

RVF

GRID, in preference to GSF?

GRID just raised funds for which I subscribed, other than that, no preference here.

RVF


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