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The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

Sorcery
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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#438670

Postby Sorcery » August 31st, 2021, 2:25 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
Sorcery wrote:
XFool wrote:...All very well, however that buffer has not prevented the continued measured rise of CO2 in the atmosphere, has it?


And no of course not. Gases don't ionise as readily in the atmosphere as they do in water. Or in another sense C02 in water doesn't matter (so much) while C02 in the atmosphere does. If there are any Chemists (not the drugs variety) that want to chip in, then I would be very happy to concede my knowledge is limited. Is that you Xfool?

I do keep chipping in, yet I keep getting the same snide responses from Xfool, who is obviously not a Chemist.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/u ... on-dioxide tells me that in 2019 the level of CO2 in the atmosphere was 409.8ppm. You can compare this with saturated air at 20°C, which contains water vapour at 23,000ppm (SWVP=17.5mmHg or 2.30%). Obviously water vapour is not always saturated, and is at a much lower partial pressure higher in the atmosphere, but its main effect is, as we know, in the Troposphere, and it often occurs as clouds formed of either water droplets or ice crystals. Clouds have a much greater effect that water vapour itself, which is why it is cooler on a cloudy day.

Increased temperature reduces the solubility of CO2 in water and increases humidity, so the question arises, does increased CO2 lead to increased temperature or vice versa? The obsession with CO2 is irrational.

TJH


Well thanks for chipping in TJK. :-) Yes water vapour is the number one green-house gas but that's partly because it's so prevalent. I think CO2 is a more powerful green-house gas in the sense that 1ppm of CO2 has more of a greenhouse effect than 1ppm of water. The table in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas shows greenhouse effect contributions of various gases.

Yet more generally I agree the water cycle has a more powerful effect. Most climate scientists seem to think that clouds are a net warming contributor, a finding I am very suspicious of. Where clouds block sunlight they have a cooling effect yet they insulate at night more?. In the tropics storms have a huge cooling effect, In the open ocean (not the Australian Coral sea) Sea Surface Temperatures seem to be limited to approximately 32 degrees centigrade. If it goes higher a storm develops which cools the air and sea surface.

It seems as if the water cycle is capable of negative feedback to increased CO2 emissions and heat.

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#439912

Postby Sorcery » September 5th, 2021, 11:28 pm

I am not sure what I said wrong there. No need for everyone to depart, just the deliberately silly ones.

If I may I will continue, got to admire the chutzpah of this guy, last week he was telling us wind and hydrogen will solve our problems, now he is lamenting Russia's stranglehold on NG. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... erilously/

He might not be a person to be trusted to be consistent. O&G likely until fusion or otherwise forever imho. Cheers.

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#439920

Postby Sorcery » September 6th, 2021, 12:11 am

I am not sure what I said wrong there. No need for everyone to depart, just the deliberately silly ones.

If I may I will continue, got to admire the chutzpah of this guy, last week he was telling us wind and hydrogen will solve our problems, now he is lamenting Russia's stranglehold on NG. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... erilously/

He might not be a person to be trusted to be consistent. O&G likely until fusion or otherwise forever imho. Cheers.

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#439954

Postby Nimrod103 » September 6th, 2021, 9:01 am

Sorcery wrote:I am not sure what I said wrong there. No need for everyone to depart, just the deliberately silly ones.

If I may I will continue, got to admire the chutzpah of this guy, last week he was telling us wind and hydrogen will solve our problems, now he is lamenting Russia's stranglehold on NG. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... erilously/

He might not be a person to be trusted to be consistent. O&G likely until fusion or otherwise forever imho. Cheers.


In recent years I have not taken Evans-Pritchard seriously. He was just about the only Telegraph reporter to survive being laid off a couple of years ago because his Prophet of Doom writings were popular with readers. But I think in this case he is aware of the major looming short term gas supply crunch which our politicians and civil servants seem to have completelyt missed.

The UK has not invested in gas storage facilities, and our only useful one - the Rough field - became unuseable in 2017. Instead we have become dependent on (1) gas from the floating LNG market, which is now beset by problems due to Covid and competition in Far Eastern markets, and (2) imports of gas and electricity from the EU & Russia, who will use their leverage to blackmail us. We just better pray for a mild winter. It is the fault of Governments and civil servants in hock to the climate change mythology, and who have been taken in by the claims of the wind energy lobby.

I am getting in a stockpile of firewood over the next few weeks.

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#440006

Postby AWOL » September 6th, 2021, 11:40 am

Sorcery wrote:I am not sure what I said wrong there. No need for everyone to depart, just the deliberately silly ones.

If I may I will continue, got to admire the chutzpah of this guy, last week he was telling us wind and hydrogen will solve our problems, now he is lamenting Russia's stranglehold on NG. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... erilously/

He might not be a person to be trusted to be consistent. O&G likely until fusion or otherwise forever imho. Cheers.


Whereas Hydrogen fuel cells may make sense for aircraft but it makes no sense for road vehicles, industry, etc where batteries are a better store of power. It takes 3x the power generation capacity to use hydrogen but our government loves the idea!

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#440130

Postby Nimrod103 » September 6th, 2021, 6:09 pm

At least we have some coal plant left:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... er-prices/

We are already relying on it, and it doesn't even feel like Autumn yet.

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#440172

Postby Sorcery » September 6th, 2021, 9:55 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
Sorcery wrote:I am not sure what I said wrong there. No need for everyone to depart, just the deliberately silly ones.

If I may I will continue, got to admire the chutzpah of this guy, last week he was telling us wind and hydrogen will solve our problems, now he is lamenting Russia's stranglehold on NG. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... erilously/

He might not be a person to be trusted to be consistent. O&G likely until fusion or otherwise forever imho. Cheers.


In recent years I have not taken Evans-Pritchard seriously. He was just about the only Telegraph reporter to survive being laid off a couple of years ago because his Prophet of Doom writings were popular with readers. But I think in this case he is aware of the major looming short term gas supply crunch which our politicians and civil servants seem to have completelyt missed.

The UK has not invested in gas storage facilities, and our only useful one - the Rough field - became unuseable in 2017. Instead we have become dependent on (1) gas from the floating LNG market, which is now beset by problems due to Covid and competition in Far Eastern markets, and (2) imports of gas and electricity from the EU & Russia, who will use their leverage to blackmail us. We just better pray for a mild winter. It is the fault of Governments and civil servants in hock to the climate change mythology, and who have been taken in by the claims of the wind energy lobby.

I am getting in a stockpile of firewood over the next few weeks.


Yes I may have been overcome by Ambrose's frequent about turns. He mentioned a company recently involved in making batteries where the fuel is Cobalt 60 and therefore radioactive but not so bad in the sense no neutrons are emitted. They reckon they had a better photovoltaic cell to trap the radiation emitted. I was sufficiently intrigued to track this company down and attend a video call of theirs where we could invest if we wished. The video meeting was an invitation by the company prompted by interest in Ambroses's article. So anyway they were offering a 10% yield on a loan to them. I would have done it for 0% and shares if I liked the idea. Only got one question in that was answered.
I said : "Where does the heat go?"
CEO said : "Not enough heat to make a cup of tea"
Oh no I thought.
I could be misunderstanding the CEO I suppose. It would be a real shame if he was for real. :lol:

I'm no expert on gas supplies, but we get it from our own seas, Norway, European interconnector and via LNG. Are all at risk?

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#440210

Postby Nimrod103 » September 7th, 2021, 8:48 am

Sorcery wrote:I'm no expert on gas supplies, but we get it from our own seas, Norway, European interconnector and via LNG. Are all at risk?


Nor am I. It depends if the gas supplies are affected by:
1) Fixed or variable gas prices
2) Interruptable or non interruptable contracts
3) Overt or covert actions by 3d parties i.e. countries the gas may travel through etc

At the end of the day, one has to ask, do we trust the French or the Russians, or any Middle Eastern country to continue to supply all our gas (or electricity) needs if they see we are running short?

There were rumours in the press (I don't know how well founded) that the French would bargain continued winter electricity supply against access to UK fishing grounds. It was a threat they used against Jersey, so one has to give it credence. The trouble is, I believe the typical civil servant at the Treasury will say 'Oh, the fishing industry is worth little to us, but building a new power station will be expensive, so we will just go along with what the French demand' - which I think is entirely the wrong attitude.

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#440250

Postby daveh » September 7th, 2021, 11:14 am

Nimrod103 wrote:At least we have some coal plant left:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... er-prices/

We are already relying on it, and it doesn't even feel like Autumn yet.


Define relying on it. Its producing 3% of the UK's power today (7/9/21 source https://carbonintensity.org.uk/) and according to the BBC that's more down to the price of gas being so high at the moment such that coal is cheaper than that we have to use it because we have no other choice. I was also surprised that the carbon intensity here (NE Scotland) is 0 today as I was expecting some gas usage as we are in the middle of a calm spell, but no wind is producing 67% of the power today.

I'll be interested in what is going to happen with all the power generation from offshore wind in the not too distant future as there is a lot of new capacity going in at the moment. I wonder if the grid is up to transporting it where needed and if we are going to get sufficient storage to use up excess production in times of too much generation for use when there is too little generation.

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#440262

Postby murraypaul » September 7th, 2021, 11:35 am

This also isn't the first time we've used coal recently, as you can see from the historic graphs here:
https://gridwatch.co.uk/coal
We started to use coal at about the same time last year.

Feels more like a headline than an actual news story.

Edit: As I write this, Wind is at 2%, CCGT at 46%, for GB as a whole.

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#440288

Postby daveh » September 7th, 2021, 12:32 pm

murraypaul wrote:This also isn't the first time we've used coal recently, as you can see from the historic graphs here:
https://gridwatch.co.uk/coal
We started to use coal at about the same time last year.

Feels more like a headline than an actual news story.

Edit: As I write this, Wind is at 2%, CCGT at 46%, for GB as a whole.


Interesting, carbonintensity.org.uk has it at 4% now, but that could just be the variability over the day. Yet up here (NE Scotland) were at 70% from wind. So North of Scotland's power usage as a % of total UK usage must be very small. May even be small compared to Scotland as a whole as South of Scotland is getting most of its power from nuclear (91%) at the moment.

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#440303

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » September 7th, 2021, 1:13 pm

daveh wrote:
murraypaul wrote:This also isn't the first time we've used coal recently, as you can see from the historic graphs here:
https://gridwatch.co.uk/coal
We started to use coal at about the same time last year.

Feels more like a headline than an actual news story.

Edit: As I write this, Wind is at 2%, CCGT at 46%, for GB as a whole.


Interesting, carbonintensity.org.uk has it at 4% now, but that could just be the variability over the day. Yet up here (NE Scotland) were at 70% from wind. So North of Scotland's power usage as a % of total UK usage must be very small. May even be small compared to Scotland as a whole as South of Scotland is getting most of its power from nuclear (91%) at the moment.

And that's (Scottish nuclear) not going to last much longer either!

RVF

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#440468

Postby ReformedCharacter » September 7th, 2021, 10:28 pm

Blue hydrogen is being enthusiastically promoted by natural gas producers as the simplest and cheapest answer to decarbonising our economies. But recent studies have shown that it's overall greenhouse gas emissions footprint is worse than natural gas. So, is this just the latest in a long series of diversions and deceptions from the fossil fuel industry?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EA4tDYwNYo

RC

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#440558

Postby spasmodicus » September 8th, 2021, 10:37 am

ReformedCharacter wrote:
Blue hydrogen is being enthusiastically promoted by natural gas producers as the simplest and cheapest answer to decarbonising our economies. But recent studies have shown that it's overall greenhouse gas emissions footprint is worse than natural gas. So, is this just the latest in a long series of diversions and deceptions from the fossil fuel industry?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EA4tDYwNYo

RC


first the youtube video promises to give a link to the original paper in "the comments section below", but I couldn't find it, so here it is
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ese3.956

this has been discussed over on https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=434575#p434575

Oh no it isn't, oh yes it is! It's another show in the pantomime like pantheon of the climate change debate. Whether we like it, or agree with it, or not, it has been decided by those on high** that there shalt be zero carbon emissions from the UK by 2050, but without any credible plan for getting there.
The Achilles heel of blue hydrogen would appear to be the associated methane emissions, not (as I would have thought) the cost of capturing and storing the CO2 produced. The paper in question does not explore the possibilty of legislation to reduce these methane emissions, or technology to do it, which surely would not be rocket science. Conspicuous by its absence in the paper is an assessment of the environmental impacts of production of completely green hydrogen from renewable electricity which is a) expensive and b) requires construction of a lot of plant for the electricity generation and electrolysis, along with the associated despoilation from mining and construction. Amid all the shock horror, the possibilty that natural gas may become much more expensive seems not to have been considered.

Bah! I can't make sense of any of this.
S

** let's hope that those on high are high enough to avoid the promised sea level rises. see, for example
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/288833634_Shore_platforms_and_raised_beach_deposits_at_Porthleven_and_the_Most_Southerly_Point_west_Cornwall

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#441867

Postby spasmodicus » September 13th, 2021, 1:24 pm

...and furthermore,
https://inews.co.uk/news/fewer-heat-pumps-are-sold-and-installed-in-the-uk-than-almost-any-other-country-in-europe-1195405

not, mind you, that I'm entirely convinced that ripping out gas boilers in 22 milion homes in the UK and replacing them with complicated, expensive and unreliable heat pumps is going to save much emitted CO2 in the short term. It's a better idea to tackle a) the problem of poor home insulation and b) the leaky gas grid, i.e. the low hanging fruit. Even Boris could understand that level of technology.
S

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#441918

Postby daveh » September 13th, 2021, 3:46 pm

spasmodicus wrote:...and furthermore,
https://inews.co.uk/news/fewer-heat-pumps-are-sold-and-installed-in-the-uk-than-almost-any-other-country-in-europe-1195405

not, mind you, that I'm entirely convinced that ripping out gas boilers in 22 milion homes in the UK and replacing them with complicated, expensive and unreliable heat pumps is going to save much emitted CO2 in the short term. It's a better idea to tackle a) the problem of poor home insulation and b) the leaky gas grid, i.e. the low hanging fruit. Even Boris could understand that level of technology.
S


Are they complicated and unreliable? The technology is little different to a fridge.

I agree ripping out gas boilers in 22 million homes would be daft, but it would be sensible to stop fitting gas boilers in new homes after a set date in the not too distant future and also mandating that when it comes time to replace existing gas boilers that should also stop at a set date in the not too distant future.

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#442004

Postby Sorcery » September 13th, 2021, 9:35 pm

Over in the USA Oil and gas companies continue to be among the biggest risers today :
https://markets.businessinsider.com/ind ... rs/s&p_500

They have been up there since the OP on quite a few days. It would seem whatever Boris and his wife's ambitions are, the market (but not the UK) does not agree with them. The O&G sector in the USA is up 55% this year, Nothing much left to invest in, in the UK, BP, Shell and Centrica are firmly on board with Boris, divesting a lot of their O&G fields.
Genel & Enquest, DEC and HBR (merged with Premier) are maybe OK, Tullow, Pharos (was SOCO), Rockhopper, JKX, look pretty well beaten up. Any other ideas?

Disclosure I hold them all apart from BP and Shell, Centrica is on the discard list.

I am off grid for a couple of weeks, on holiday in Spain to celebrate my daughter's wedding to a Spaniard. May get a chance to look in occasionally, :-)
Cheers.

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#442548

Postby XFool » September 15th, 2021, 4:41 pm

Sorcery wrote:Over in the USA Oil and gas companies continue to be among the biggest risers today :
https://markets.businessinsider.com/ind ... rs/s&p_500

They have been up there since the OP on quite a few days. It would seem whatever Boris and his wife's ambitions are, the market (but not the UK) does not agree with them.

Ultimately it'll be more a question of: "Does reality agree with them?" ;)

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#442555

Postby Lootman » September 15th, 2021, 4:52 pm

XFool wrote:
Sorcery wrote:Over in the USA Oil and gas companies continue to be among the biggest risers today :
https://markets.businessinsider.com/ind ... rs/s&p_500

They have been up there since the OP on quite a few days. It would seem whatever Boris and his wife's ambitions are, the market (but not the UK) does not agree with them.

Ultimately it'll be more a question of: "Does reality agree with them?" ;)

Do you invest on that basis i.e. that your personal perception of reality knows better than the reality of the entire market?

What typically is your annual out-performance over the index investing that way? Might be hard for you this year if you have been out of energy on the basis that "you know better". :D

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#442563

Postby XFool » September 15th, 2021, 5:13 pm

Lootman wrote:
XFool wrote:
Sorcery wrote:Over in the USA Oil and gas companies continue to be among the biggest risers today :
https://markets.businessinsider.com/ind ... rs/s&p_500

They have been up there since the OP on quite a few days. It would seem whatever Boris and his wife's ambitions are, the market (but not the UK) does not agree with them.

Ultimately it'll be more a question of: "Does reality agree with them?" ;)

Do you invest on that basis i.e. that your personal perception of reality knows better than the reality of the entire market?

What typically is your annual out-performance over the index investing that way? Might be hard for you this year if you have been out of energy on the basis that "you know better". :D

Oh dear! Missing the point yet again. :lol:

You think, long term, the market can buck reality? But then, I wasn't really making an investment point...


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