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Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

Proselenes
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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#463386

Postby Proselenes » December 6th, 2021, 7:38 am

Large oil discovery news from Royston-1 2nd zone testing.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/touchston ... 00085976U/

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#464108

Postby Proselenes » December 7th, 2021, 11:58 pm

Interview with PB following Royston-1 news.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVb4aHo ... =Proactive

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#464446

Postby Proselenes » December 9th, 2021, 9:52 am

Some people have asked "Do you see a placing to raise some cash more likely now" ?

To which I have answered........yes I do.

Reason being currently work on Coho seems to be held up, no "visual" progress for weeks now after the initial burst to start with. Next satellite image is due today. I think Coho is now going to be late January at best, might slip to February.

The most likely time for any fund raise will be after results from the top zone in a couple of weeks. Canaccord has just done a placing for PANR (Pantheon Resources) and will have to wait a few weeks for those people to flip their PANR placing shares (sell for a small profit) and get reloaded with cash for "another oil/gas explo company fund raise".

So yes, following this oil discovery and the "need for speed" to drill Rosyton Deep-1 and Krakken-1 now.......I dont think they can generate enough cash quickly enough and so will more likely now do a "quick" private placing now to tide them over until Cascadura is online. if they do a placing then they can start with Royston Deep-1 perhaps in early Q2 2022.

Therefore in answer to those questioning, I would say the chance of a placing for some exploration cash has risen from 15% to now, in my view, 70% chance of an equity raise.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#464912

Postby Proselenes » December 11th, 2021, 5:50 am

Latest satellite image is from 9th December. No distance increase (still looks about 700 meters) from 4th November, but the trench looks wider....... Pic from 4th November and then 5 weeks later on 9th December are below.

Image

Image

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Proselenes
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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#465616

Postby Proselenes » December 13th, 2021, 11:28 pm


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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#465619

Postby Proselenes » December 13th, 2021, 11:38 pm

TXP Presentation on 20th January 2022

Presentation is planned, details and how to sign up on the below link :

https://tinyurl.com/y6e4e2ux

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#467945

Postby Proselenes » December 22nd, 2021, 12:09 am

New interview with CEO Paul Baay :

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/co ... 69863.html

I would guess a placing is coming now to pay for this new drill and also shore up the balance sheet. Coho is late again and with a big expensive drill in Q1 now, I would think placing before the 20th January planned webinar is likely to happen. Might not be a placing, but I would say 80% on / 20% against now imo.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#468176

Postby Proselenes » December 23rd, 2021, 10:16 am

Not really..........I think the poor market reaction to Royston test 3 has forced their hand into expanding the loan and using the money to drill Royston Deep in February or March.

I wanted them to expand to 50 million, but they have only got 30m.......which still leaves things very tight.

The market remains very unconvinced.......and so the share price remains low.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#474901

Postby Proselenes » January 20th, 2022, 11:42 pm

My thoughts on the Webinar.........

I think that was a pretty good summary of the current state of events. I think Paul was trying to still be cautiously positive whilst also hinting at more delays.

Coho looks to be up to 2 months away from final tie in.

Krakken appears to be being pushed back, due to specialised pipe and wellhead equipment needed.

Royston Deep is being pushed back, waiting for EWT results and also Coora drills to complete...so some months away etc...

Seems to be no plans for multiple rigs now......its just the Canadian rig only - at least until Casacadura is online.

Personally I think its being pushed as they want to wait for the reserves report in March which should open the door to more debt funding being available, whcih will tide them over until Cascadura comes online sometime after July.

Basically they are just be very sensible and cautious and are not going to over stretch themselves.

Should be much better visibility of things come April/May, by which time things should really start to accelerate and get moving.

Until they know exactly when Casca will be on line, or at least beyond reasonable doubt...they just need to be prudent and conserve cash. So all in all a good update from Paul, it will not please some people who want everything tomorrow..........but for the sensible people there is a decent pathway forward now. Patience.


Link for the new presentation that was used during the webinar :

https://www.touchstoneexploration.com/w ... tation.pdf

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#474914

Postby Proselenes » January 21st, 2022, 2:07 am


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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#481093

Postby Proselenes » February 17th, 2022, 4:06 am

Delayed a bit more.

Coho now "May" and Cascadura "maybe" August.

https://guardian.co.tt/business/first-g ... 57aef7a388

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#481798

Postby Proselenes » February 21st, 2022, 4:19 am

This needs to be emphasised again and again. :


https://guardian.co.tt/business/first-g ... 57aef7a388


......Major oil find made

Baay said it appears that the country did not realise that the recent announcement of an oil discovery in its Royston well was a major development in the local energy sector.

He told BG “If you look at Penal block, it has produced over 100 million barrels of oil, and this is 1938 and it is basically a look alike to what we found at Royston, like similar depths, similar type of crude so I am not sure people fully understand how significant the Royston discovery was.”

Baay added, “I can only tell you part of it because we are in the middle of doing an independent engineering report which will come out on March 14, but just from what we have seen from the seismic we have shot and the well we drilled, this is a structure that is approximately 7km long and 2km wide and it holds hundreds of millions of barrels of oil (in place) we know that now and what this is going to mean is a very active drilling programme and I think significant volumes of oil for the country coming out of that block for the next couple of years.”.........

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#483656

Postby Proselenes » March 2nd, 2022, 1:06 am

Finally woken up in Canada. Bit of volume last night and closed at 98p mid price equivalent (1.67 CAD)

Image

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#483933

Postby Proselenes » March 3rd, 2022, 12:40 am

Feb 2022 figures added.

A bigger increase in February, with 160K additional shares borrowed and short sold.

TXP Stock on Loan (Shorts) from Euroclear (% borrowed from CREST holdings - average)

Jan 2021____0.52%
Feb 2021____1.23%
Mar 2021____7.14%
Apr 2021____8.65%
May 2021____8.79%
Jun 2021____8.74%
Jul 2021____8.49%
Aug 2021____8.45%
Sep 2021____8.39%
Oct 2021____8.37%
Nov 2021____8.37%
Dec 2021____8.72%
Jan 2022____8.49%
Feb 2022____8.64% (9.02 million short - up from 8.84 million in Jan 21)

--------------

Canadian Market shows the short position as of 15th February 2022 has increased by 159,733, so the total Canada short as of 15th Feb 2022 was 706,746

So plenty of downward price suppression pressure is being applied in both London and Toronto.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#483934

Postby Proselenes » March 3rd, 2022, 1:00 am

I understand the frustration with the delays but lets be honest.

This is VERY NORMAL when an oil or gas production facility is brough online for the first time in 20 years.
As an example I can point you to Petro Matad (MATD) where they made the Heron discovery and wanted it online quickly. Nobody had applied for an oil production facility for perhaps 20 years. Everything had to be reviewed, tonnes of paperwork and red tape, everyone in government unsure of the process.......and still Heron is not online. I think it will be 3 years.

The same applies to Trinidad and new gas production. Nobody has applied for over 20 years, nobody in government has any experience of it, lots of CYA and being unsure, lots of delays........
This is very normal. And the only thing Paul is guilty of is "enthusiasm".

We can look at oil differently. Rosyton discovery, its on EWT now producing oil and the oil produced is being sold. Very quick and simple.

How many people are thanking Paul for so quickly selling EWT oil from Royston ? Nobody ? and yet many are happy to berate him for the holds ups with gas.

The delays on the gas are a "one time" thing. Everyone will have learned about the process, and everything in future will be very much faster, especially without Covid as well, and in the case of Coho - without Shell being snails and holding things up as well.

So ultimately - why am I buying more now ?

I am adding now at lows with a view to major news in 6 to 9 months time. This is investing, buying the low, viewing the events in the future, taking advantage of the potential success.

Cascadura online and Krakken-1 drilling. Thats 2 massive events for TXP and events which could push the price of TXP up to the range of 200p to 450p (450p if Krakken hits oil and 200p+ with Cascadura being online and generating all that cash).

Cascadura is worth 150p a share now to TXP pre-production, that you can buy below this presents opportunity. Add in potential "major oil discovery" confirmation at Royston and then Krakken-1 well to be drilled in the summer, and Cascadura being online - then its a solid investment imo with a 9 month outlook.

Things should kick off with the two Coora wells sometime later in this month or April, then the rig moves to drill Royston Deep-1 and then all being well Krakken-1. We have Coho gas online hopefully by end of May. Cascadura should be online by late August. Also Bass, Steelhead and Guabine exploration targets (and many more on top of them) and more than likely the Chinook oil discovery will be drilled updtip in late 2023/2024.

Year end 2022 we should see 100mmscf/day gas production (plus liquids) from Coho and Cascadura, with that ramping up to 200mmscf/day by end of 2023.

Year end 2022 we should see near 2000bopd from the Legacy oil licenses after the 2 Coora wells are done - we should see that level by end of H1 2022 actually.

And we potentially will have three oil wells at Royston producing via EWT being Royston-1 and Royston Deep-1 and Krakken-1. Between those 3 what might they yield ? 2000bopd ? 3000 bopd?

So much is going on in the future, but yes, frustrating for the moment but I firmly believe patience will be handsomely rewarded, very handsomely rewarded.........and remember, all that "Stock on Loan" all 9 million shares of it borrowed from Crest and short sold, has to be purchased back and returned to Crest at some point. They will not be holding that short level once Cascadura is online, so the timeline to close that short is now less than 6 months.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#484027

Postby Proselenes » March 3rd, 2022, 11:13 am

TXP EIA Submission for Cascadura development link :

https://www.ema.co.tt/esummary/index.php/cec-6214-2021

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#484271

Postby Proselenes » March 4th, 2022, 11:06 am

Two points of interest.

First being that the SPT is going to be looked at, if this is reformed it means more money for TXP for their oil production.

Second being they are expecting LNG demand to boom and they are short of gas, which means the government needs Cascadura online asap. So we may indeed see Cascadura online by end of July as planned.

https://newsday.co.tt/2022/03/03/trade- ... s-economy/

...............“The oil price above US$50 per barrel means the Government will collect SPT (supplemental petroleum tax) from most oil production, and above US$75 per barrel, it collects SPT from small onshore producers. This increase in price means companies like Heritage, Perenco and Trinity have more free cash flow, which can be used for reinvestment in drilling. However, the SPT remains an obstacle to investment and the industry expects the Minister of Energy to address this soon.

“The Government expected to collect $43.3 billion in revenue in 2022, I don’t see them falling below this forecast figure, but I don’t see it going much higher. In short there is no 'boom' effect, because booms are periods where we have a price spike and a production ramp-up," Ramnarine explained.

He added that with ammonia priced at US$1,085 per tonne it was expected to climb higher in coming weeks as Russian ammonia exports via the Ukrainian port of Yuzhnyy have been suspended, and upstream companies that sell natural gas to the NGC will benefit significantly.

“It will also benefit the NGC. The price the NGC realises for the natural gas it sells to the ammonia plants at Point Lisas varies with the price of ammonia. Overall, high ammonia prices are good for TT, given our strong position in the ammonia business, although that position has been weakened due to lower natural gas supply,” Ramnarine said.

He also pointed out that the Russia-Ukraine crisis will cause European countries to increasingly lean towards LNG, in which TT was still a major player.
Unfortunately, Ramnarine said, the closure of Train 1 and reduced production from Trains 2, 3 and 4 owing to lower natural gas supply has set back TT, and the benefits in the area would be minimal.

“Given the higher natural gas prices all over the world, TT should experience a bump in LNG-related revenue. However, this will be tempered by lower LNG production and the closure of Train 1. Our low natural-gas production means we are not poised to reap the full benefit of higher prices.”

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#484843

Postby Proselenes » March 7th, 2022, 11:45 am

Canaccord retain price target of 200p and Specualtive Buy rating

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#485050

Postby Proselenes » March 8th, 2022, 6:26 am

FWIW....Malcys take on things is below after the link. I would add, that Royston Deep-1 could be a very lucrative producer with high flow rates (taking into account what Malcys highlights below), I will be happy to see them drill this in the summer and get it directly on to production via EWT - and then Cascadura online. Krakken-1 can wait until Cascadura is online and producing (as drilling Krakken-1 means Royston Deep-1 EWT production would have to stop while its drilled).

So a clear path should be :

Royston-1 EWT continues.
When ready, stop Royston-1 EWT and drill Royston Deep-1.
Put Royston-1 and Royston Deep-1 on to EWT. This gives good cash flow waiting for Casca.
Run them on EWT until Cascadura is online, where Casca takes over being the main cash generator.
Then stop EWT and drill Krakken-1.
Then put Royston-1 and Royston Deep-1 and Krakken-1 all on EWT again.



https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/03/oil-price-zephyr-touchstone/

......This is a very substantial and detailed report as one would expect from a company that has been as been as busy as Touchstone has been recently. I like the focus on the 200 plus million bbls in place at Royston with TXP only having booked a small portion based on the single well drilled so far.

Also it should be borne in mind that the operations update that shows production rates from Royston and the two gas projects that now have a clear path to production which I suggest should add significantly to long term value especially given the flow rates at here but the 675 bbls/d is only from 120 ft of the 1500 ft section.

The shares have remained unchanged on the news which given that oil is where it is today is clearly an under rating of the company of a substantial nature. When all the numbers are out for the company I am convinced that there will be huge reserves which will make the current share price look ridiculously low and investment at these levels will prove to have been a very wise move. ............

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#485052

Postby Proselenes » March 8th, 2022, 7:24 am

Interview with Paul Baay CEO :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCCMZ9YgJms

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