The Lemon Fool

Nice update.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/touchston ... 00085922D/

Done well, we should be getting Casca Deep results then around 18th to 25th Dec.....so a real Christmas bonus is possible.

And Chinook testing to commence around year end, which is well earlier than expected.

Should be having lots of news ahead then.

Late Nov / Early Dec NGC deal and Coho-1 pipeline news.

Mid / Late Dec Casca Deep result

Jan / Feb Chinook testing result, then Casca Deep testing result.

Mar Coho-1 on line producing

Then after that Royston spud.

I see Cormark increased their Target Price for TXP up to 3.75 C$ on 15th October.

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/TSE/TXP/price-target/

3.75 CAD = 217 pence.


I expect that to go higher on Chinook testing news, and of course, any success at Cascadura Deep.

This was the Cormack comment when they done their initiation of coverage and 3.25 CAD target price. This has, as stated, now been upgraded to 3.75 CAD following the initial Chinook news. More for Chinook will be added after flow test results I am sure.

The interesting thing is, Chinook they rate at 200 BCF.

Cascadura Deep they say is potentially 500 BCF plus liquids on its own.

So we now have, on best estimates.

Cascadura--------395 BCF (GLJ best estimate)

Chinook----------200 BCF (estimate pre-flow test - GLJ report)

Cascadura Deep---500 BCF (estimate pre-drill, pre discovery, pre-flow test)


Casca Deeo comes in and its potential over 1TCF recoverable gas for Christmas, with the big Royston drill in Q2 2021, and 21 more targets to drill after that.



Cormark Securities initiated coverage of Touchstone Exploration Inc. (TXP-T) with a “buy” rating and $3.25 target.

– Buy, 3.25 Target,

Garett Ursu: We are initiating research coverage on Touchstone Exploration. Details: As detailed in our “Emerging Ideas” report from May 29th, Touchstone Exploration’s Ortoire block onshore Trinidad has already provided investors with impressive stock market gains and behind-pipe production that will increase corporate volumes exponentially over the next 3-12 months.

Near-term activity should also continue to unlock material untapped resources with the Chinook-1 well (200 Bcf prospect) currently drilling, to be followed by the Cascadura Deep well (500 Bcf plus liquids) prior to year-end.

An additional 21 exploration prospects have the potential to individually move the stock and boost future volumes. Based on our current 25 MBOE/d forecast and the attractive operating regime in Trinidad for natural gas (supply/demand, pricing, tax, regulatory, counterparty risk, economics, etc.) we believe Touchstone could generate ~$65 MM of free cash flow in 2022. With results expected shortly from the high-impact Chinook-1 exploration well, we believe Touchstone is a unique and timely E&P investment opportunity. Recommendation: We are initiating coverage on Touchstone Exploration with a Buy rating and C$3.25 target (3.0x 2022 EV/EBITDA). Not only is the company’s exploration upside not being valued in the market, but the company’s past success is also being heavily discounted given potential volume growth and free cash flow through 2022

New interview with Paul, following Casc Deep spud.

https://bit.ly/3mMhKNY

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Fund raise.......will be good to get this last one out of the way. Then its sit back and wait for the wall of cash to come piling in from late next year.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/touchston ... 44590043E/

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30 million dollars raised at a small discount (95p).

Now loaded with cash and able to fast track everything, so looking forward to a very big gain in 2021 as the cash flow comes on stream, building into a wall of cash coming in late 2021.

Interview with Paul following the fund raise.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4EJdAYwS5s

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Malcolm Shaw comment.

https://www.hydracapital.ca/hydra-blog/

Touchstone Taps the Market for US$30 Million

By Malcolm Shaw November 3, 2020

(Disclosure: The following represents my opinions only. I am not receiving any compensation for writing this article, nor does Hydra Capital have any business relationship with companies mentioned in this post. I am long TXP.TO)

A very quick note today, but I did want to point out that Touchstone Energy (TXP.TO, last at $1.76) tapped the market overnight by issuing 24.3 million shares for ~US$30 million at 95 pence / C$1.64 per share. For those who have forgotten Rule #1 of the issuer side of the capital markets, it is “always take the money” (i.e., holding ..........................

Three Hereira sheets target with the Cascadura Deep well which is ongonig now and results due mid-December onwards.

1st is the same as the discovery at Cascadura. This is appraisal. All being well the Casca numbers will be firmed up, expanded perhaps.

2nd is the primary target of the initial well, that was not hit last time due to stopping early with the upper discovery.

3rd is the deep.....the sub-thrust, which has shown to have hydrocarbons at Chinook.


Suffice to say - Cascadura Deep will hit hydrocarbons, the question is, how much.....

Transcript of the recent interview with PB

https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com ... /412935676

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KMP has ok'd the sharing of the post he made on Facebook. He believes Ortoire could yield up to 9 TCF of gas for TXP.

................From Facebook and by one of XM’s mentors who was a bigwig in the Trinidad state oil companies.

Comment from Krishna Mohan Persad today:

“The Natural Gas Audit done by Ryder Scott to end December 2019 has warned that more natural needs to be found if we are not to run into supply issues going forward from 2023 and urged more deep water drilling.
While I agree that deep water is the area where the bulk of our natural gas will be found I want to point to the Ortoire Basin where Touchstone has already found nearly one TCF of gas and the expectation is for lots more..up to 9 TCF perhaps. And the beauty about this, is that it is onshore and not too deep.
This good form a good stop-gap in the interim until the deep water gas already found is brought to market and new finds are made.”

https://www.facebook.com/krishnamohan.p ... 2602877035

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Its worth looking at this earlier May 2020 article again.

The valuation given was 1.65 CAD for existing discoveries and status........then it shows the add on value for Chinook and Casca Deep.

If we take the view that Chinook (to yet be proven) is 250 BCF, then the current valuation should be 3.75 CAD (219 pence).

And if Casca Deep comes in.....up to another 250 BCF adds on to make 5.85 CAD (341 pence).

However........ Chinook is said to be "better than expected".........and Casca Deep now has 2 additional target zones........

So those numbers in the article below, maybe significantly too small......

https://www.hydracapital.ca/2020/05/11/ ... e-numbers/


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Q3 results out today.


Paul R. Baay, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented:

"The Board's focus remains on our Ortoire property where exploration activities to date have significantly exceeded expectations. Our base crude oil production continues to cover our operating costs, allowing us to direct our capital exclusively to our ongoing exploration program. The oversubscribed private placement completed post period end places us in a strong position to continue the execution of our Ortoire drilling, production testing and tie-in operations. We are currently drilling our fourth exploration well, Cascadura Deep-1, and we are in the process of finalizing a nine-month extension to the exploration phase of the Ortoire licence. Alongside this, we continue to negotiate a natural gas sales agreement with the National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago. I look forward to updating our shareholders as operations progress."

I think it would be fair to say that this company is not widely followed. Out of 72 posts to date, I could find only two which are not from Proselenes. Is this a record? This would be the third.

Dod

Which shows many people are acutely unaware of how to make money .............and I expect up to 500% up from here in the coming 18 to 24 months

Premier Miton took 16 million shares at 95 pence a share in the recent fund raise..........which suggests the bigger boys are moving in now, ready for the next phase of upwards movements.

Share price chart below :

Good for you and I am not getting at you in the least!

Dod

Many people were similarly enthusiastic at the prospects for Hurricane Energy and thought they knew and understood the company in detail.

I know that I know nothing of hydrocarbon exploration and so don't touch such companies. But good luck to you and well done.

Dod........no worries.

I keep posting on all companies I am interested in, it keeps me up to date with events.......and makes sure I am following every detail. There are a good many who simply read the boards and never post - believe it or not many years ago (like many many) I was the same.

scrumpyjack wrote:Many people were similarly enthusiastic at the prospects for Hurricane Energy and thought they knew and understood the company in detail.

I know that I know nothing of hydrocarbon exploration and so don't touch such companies. But good luck to you and well done.

Hi Scrumpyjack.

The trouble with HUR was that it was a complicated play..........Fractured Basement which nobody really truly understands as its highly complex. It was not a play that inexperienced oil investors should have been involved in. HUR also borrowed a shed load of money to get into production.

TXP is very simple. Trinidad is short of gas. TXP has discovered already lots of gas, with lots more potential. Cash flow from the gas will start in Q1 2021 with lots more coming on stream Q3 and Q4. Simple cash flow - but with the upside of further exploration. They are now fully funded into production with zero net debt.

I fully believe TXP will be well over 300p by the end of 2021, and withing 18 to 24 months will be over 500p. I am heavily invested in TXP and have faith.

Nice write up on TXP

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4389599-touchstones-cascadura-deep-gas-exploration-well-are-optimistic-for-significant-gas-discovery

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