miner1000 wrote:"Morrison has shown himself to be beholden to coal interests and his administration is considered to have conspired with a small number of petrostates to sabotage the recent UN climate conference in Madrid (“COP25”), seen as a last ditch effort to keep planetary warming below a level (1.5C) considered by many to constitute “dangerous” planetary warming.
But Australians need only wake up in the morning, turn on the television, read the newspaper or look out the window to see what is increasingly obvious to many – for Australia, dangerous climate change is already here. It’s simply a matter of how much worse we’re willing to allow it to get.
Australia is experiencing a climate emergency. It is literally burning. It needs leadership that is able to recognise that and act. And it needs voters to hold politicians accountable at the ballot box.".
what a load of absolute rubbish dspp! The Guardian spouts the sort of stuff that appeals to the XR nutters.
Do you realise that Australia has a population of less than 25 Million people?
China has 2 Billion and is building a new coal fired power station every week or so.
The Guardian would like Australia to stop producing coal and selling it (and Iron ore) to China is suppose. with the loss of jobs lower standard of living lower GDP etc etc that goes with it.
Unless China does something about emissions, anything Australia does would be insignificant on the global scale.
Quite why anyone still reads the Grauniad I really dont know.
Miner
You are of course welcome to your opinion .......... . The IPCC reports would suggest that climate change concerns are not an area for 'nutters'. They most definitely ought to be a relevant factor for serious investors.
Chinese coal is easing towards a plateau, probably in about 2025 or so. In my opinion there is a mismatch in the data between the rate of coal station builds and the combined domestic coal extraction/ coal imports.
My personal best guess is that they will actually go into a coal taper after about 2025, not a plateau, and that they will prematurely retire some of the older coal generating plant and so have a reduction in the avge age of plant, i.e. a fleet rejuvenation. I base that on the political & pollution issues I see in China, and the very rapid growth in renewables I see in China. There are also the economic growth data problems which may mean that growth is lower than reported (say, maybe 4%, not 7%) which in turn would lead to a lower overall energy growth, and greater potential for coal curtailment.
Furthermore I would hazard a guess that in a declining growth scenario, and a coal taper scenario, they will choke imports vs the domestic and will overcome the internal logistical difficulties that preference imports. That might not directly affect Australia, but in combination with what I see happening in India, it could cause a reduction in both Indonesian and Australian coal exports.
Some helpful reading:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN1VD0BDhttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=33092https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/ ... hp?iso=CHNThat Reuters links relies on a Chinese study that I read at the time. There are internal wrangles over coal studies within China by the various Chinese economists (I'm sorry but I cannot find the links to the wrangles, I thought I had put it on the coal thread but apparently not) , and it is by no means certain that the special pleading of coal will be permitted. My opinion (fwiw) is that the Chinese authorities are currently happy to see a surplus of mines/generators built in coal/nuclear/renewables, knowing that they can switch off the coal, and back out the nuclear if necessary. By having too much capacity they are never at risk of running out of power (a real political legitimacy issue), and in the short term wasted investment does at least keep the construction sector busy and employment up (again political legitimacy).
I think you'll find that quite a lot of people read the Guardian. Unlike most newspapers the readership of the Guardian is growing. Here in the Oil & Gas & Energy board we are keen to make good investment decisions, and that requires good input data from wherever we find it. I am fortunate in that my day job requires visiting China and India and others in the energy sector, but one needs to balance personal observations with as wide a set of input sources as possible.
regards, dspp