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Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

Proselenes
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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#258897

Postby Proselenes » October 19th, 2019, 12:14 am

Gazelle is not over yet......they have the money to do a sidetrack or drill in another location at Gazelle.

Thats because Block V drill has been put on the back burner.


The question now for me is :

Is Gazelle-1 on the edge of the pinch out and so its a material discovery which may be commercial (which is backed up by them running production casing and suspending the well).

Will Heron-1 be commercial ? If it is then its a company maker for MATD and moves them straight into Test Production phase of commercial development - meaning they can immediately install a pump, produce and sell the oil.

What size is Heron ? 25 MMBO Pmean ? Thats 18p a share value. Is it 40 MMBO due to the higher location of the reservoir and also the better porosity ? Thats worth 32p a share.......

Will the company focus, in the event Gazelle post well evaluation studies prove its a significant size - get Heron on production by year end and then move Gazelle into production early next year (via a sidetrack or new well) - giving them 2 producing areas and allowing higher levels of bank debt finance, and then look later next year at drilling Block V.

If Gazelle is proven to be significant (and nobody has said its not so far - the company is running casing to prepare for the future) then what size is it ?

There are more questions, lots more.......but the main focus now is the Heron-1 flow rates, once thats done I think they will then later be giving positive news on Gazelle-1 post well evaluation studies.......

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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#258900

Postby Proselenes » October 19th, 2019, 12:41 am

This was the scoping economics for Blocks IV, V and XX done some time ago (oil was 90US$ then).

As can be seen, the company expects flow rates of between 100bopd to 200bopd per production well on any of the blocks.

Link below, click on it to open the pic.

https://i.ibb.co/VxSf5bx/Annotation-201 ... 063458.jpg

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Proselenes
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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#259778

Postby Proselenes » October 24th, 2019, 7:31 am

Outstanding result........exceptional.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/petro-mat ... 00089858Q/

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Proselenes
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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#259817

Postby Proselenes » October 24th, 2019, 10:37 am

Image

Proselenes
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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#259857

Postby Proselenes » October 24th, 2019, 12:51 pm

Image

dspp
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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#259883

Postby dspp » October 24th, 2019, 3:06 pm

Well done them.

So why is MATD at 5p/share then down from c 8p last month.

It is a very odd world.

dspp

Proselenes
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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#260000

Postby Proselenes » October 24th, 2019, 10:16 pm

Heron Pre-drill estimate

Heron 165 MMBO OIP with 15% RF giving 25MMBO recoverable.

So why is Mike so excited and delirious ?


Net Pay is bigger than expected as per old RNS - TICK

Porosity is way better than expected - TICK

Permeability is way better than expected - TICK

Structure 5 meters higher than pre-drill estimate, so its bigger - TICK

Flow rates (not stimulated and natural flow - wow factor) - TICK



165MMBO plus 20% for better net pay = +33MMBO

165MMBO plus 15% for better porosity = +24 MMBO

165MMBO plus 10% as bigger area = +16.5 MMBO


So now Heron might well be 165+33+24+16.5 = 238.5MMBO OIP

Now........lets say the RF is not 15% but given the very light oil and the high permeability its more like 30%......

Now means Heron is looking at being 71.5 MMBO recoverable. Which is currently 100% owned.


Now you might see why Mike is pretty damn pleased and beaming from ear to ear. BUT BUT BUT, dont forget that Gazelle has been cased and will be tested in future.

Gazelle may be the key to some very serious upside. We have NGL's in the wet gas, a lot of it and then also 3M of net oil pay and this was drilled at the fringe. So not only may Gazelle deliver something important, it will deliver some very serious upside from similar strat trap plays down at the Erdenetsagaan area........ones which are multiple times the size of Heron - a few over a hundred million MMBO recoverable targets and all there in Block XX at the southerly end of the Tamtsag basin.

Lots of upsides and upgrades to come out yet..........expect to see many interviews and loads of PR over the coming weeks as MATD have a very good story to tell now and will be a producer very soon and generating their own cash.

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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#260023

Postby Proselenes » October 25th, 2019, 3:21 am

I dont think Gazelle was bad news only, but it could be construed as such. I would class it more as "surprising". Surprise downside in that the main target was not there, surprise upside as it confirmed that the secondary target was good, that the upper area is very much mature for oil generation (proven by NGL wet gas and a 3M net oil pay zone) and that this proves the stratigraphic trap play type of which there are a number of very big ones in Block XX.

So short term down, long term big upside - so Gazelle is not over, and its why its been cased and suspended. Proven mature NGL and oil being generated in the shale. Proven good reservoir sands in the strat pinch out. Yes Gazelle was sub-optimal location for the secondary target as its aim was the primary, but what if now...for an optimal located well on Gazelle ?

What I would say is that Mongolia is not a simple geologic area and with very limited number of wells drilled, its in its infancy. The more wells drilled, the more well data, the more geologic data the more it will progress and the easier it will be to find more oil.

How many dusters have been drilled in the North Sea - many many. Its now mature with good understanding but still you will see duster after duster drilled by the big players.

Geologically you have to test theories against data, refine the data, do it again, refine the data, do it again and over and over and success will follow.

MATD in April were still guessing - Three wells later MATD's knowledge is vastly improved - they know that Gazelle secondary strat trap play is proven. They know Heron is proven. They know primary targets at Red Deer and Gazelle are not proven. They have 3 wells of data now to reinterpret into the complete Block. This will lead to upgrades, new prospects, bigger prospects and all which will have a much higher CoS now.

I think Block XX will be the focus of 2020 now - there is potentially another 600 MMBO of recoverable oil to be discovered there - so given the impressive data they now have - you exploit that.

Block V they know oil is there, but only have 1 real well of data. I believe thats why they wanted to drill a quick and cheap well there to test the Raptor theory. Block V is very much at the first stages....might take 3 more dusters to find oil or the Raptors might deliver oil next drill. But its still much higher risk than simply now focusing on Block XX and unlocking that potential. My guess is that they may try to do Velociraptor late in 2020 once they have revenue coming in from Heron.

This is why its no surprise to me to see them now openly saying they will reprocess and reevaluate all of Block XX. Gazelle has opened up new proven play types to be seriously looked into - large prospects around Erdenetsagaan. Heron could be 3 times bigger than the current estimate of 25 MMBO recoverable. So I believe the immediate focus is now Block XX and maybe one well on Block V late in 2020 once they have good revenue coming in from Block XX and any farm out is concluded.

The company is in a very strong position now, much stronger than they were back in April. 10p a share for what they have now is not a high expectation, and with Mike soon to be out telling his story to the city and the institutions we should see some strong gains ahead and people begin to understand what a very good position MATD have now.

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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#260309

Postby dspp » October 26th, 2019, 1:20 pm

Proselenes wrote:
The company is in a very strong position now, much stronger than they were back in April. 10p a share for what they have now is not a high expectation, and with Mike soon to be out telling his story to the city and the institutions we should see some strong gains ahead and people begin to understand what a very good position MATD have now.


Thank you Proselenes.

This find actually ticked two boxes for me, only one of which you have mentioned:

1. Commercial oil discovery.
2. 'Tight' news management with no pre-RNS oddities of a material nature happening to the share price.

Given these two positive ticks, in addition to the many others that you have quite reasonably previously set out regarding the investment case, I have now bought back in for a few, just a wee nibble.

regards, dspp

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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#260377

Postby Proselenes » October 26th, 2019, 10:39 pm

Hi dspp.

Yes, they managed the news flow very well, no leaks.

Looking forward to Mikes interviews in the weeks ahead.

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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#260527

Postby Proselenes » October 28th, 2019, 1:58 am

At this juncture its worth listening to this again :

https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/media/5d1c ... 01724ebdf/



New interviews will be done this week/next week - ahead of the AGM.

.

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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#260566

Postby Proselenes » October 28th, 2019, 10:46 am

Snippets coming out in the Mongolian media now after interviews with Mongolian staff.


Expecting Heron to be much larger that 25 MMBO as no water cut found.

Gazelle unable to test now due to the enforced delays at Heron-1 with the permit, they expect to flow oil to surface from the 3.2M section and believe that as this is on the edge, there is much thicker pay to be found at a different location.


quote.

According to estimates from the drill hole, 25 million barrels of oil can be extracted from this deposit. However, this number may increase due to the fact that no water has been released from this well. They are carrying out now a number of jobs, including exploration, resource estimation, development plans, and transfer of land use.

Due to the barriers in the company's work, the Chinese drilling company paid for the idle and lost time. If you worked on the plan, you could experiment with the "Gazelle" borehole. Interestingly, the oil in "Gazelle" was drilled 5 km east of the Heron. There was a period of 3.2 meters thick, which could contain oils that could flow into the bore. If it is drilled to the top of the embankment, it is more likely to have a thicker zone.

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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#260685

Postby Proselenes » October 28th, 2019, 9:04 pm

Very good interview with Mike which confirms all what was suspected.

https://audioboom.com/posts/7407804-val ... matad-matd


Heron-1 exploitation license application in process, we will see production in Q1 2020.

Incremental well count using FCF (eg no plans for any placing, generate the cash, get another well done on Heron - basic option pending band debt or farm out).

Confirms enough cash left for a cheap drill (2nd Heron well)

Heron size upgrades possible.

Gazelle - potential for thicker net pay meaning Gazelle may be a commercial size discovery.

South Tamtsag Basin (Erdenetsagaan area) potential for sone very material sized prospects now following Gazelle strat trap play prove.

No plans as yet for Phoenix or Raptor in 2020 however very interesting that they might consider using a truck mounted rig to drill bore holes into them in Block V, or at least VelociRaptor in Block V. The bore hole approach has been done before - very cheap way of proving oil or not. I like that, thinking outside the box.

Certainly looks very exciting and Mike has intimated quite clearly they have the cash to move forward in a steady way, getting Block XX into production and incrementally increasing production and therefore incrementally increasing Free Cash Flow to then reinvest.

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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#260720

Postby Proselenes » October 29th, 2019, 6:28 am

Interview with one of the MATD Exploration Geologists.

http://bloombergtv.mn/post/58338/


Sadly, all in Mongolian. However the key points are, as posted yesterday. No Water Cut at Heron-1 so Heron will be bigger than the current 25 MMBO recoverable. Gazelle still in play, looking for thick net pay elsewhere as current well hit the fringe as it was secondary target of Gazelle-1 - now they know the Strat Trap Play is a primary target.

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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#260954

Postby Proselenes » October 30th, 2019, 6:38 am

12th November event in London for those who want to attend.

https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/oil-gas- ... 7838684601

MATD headlining, also ECO and CORO

.

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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#260986

Postby Proselenes » October 30th, 2019, 9:09 am

Looks like a transcript of the TV interview.

https://www.inews.mn/a/10477

Basic points again.....

Gazelle still very much in play, thought to be drilled on the edge of the Strat Trap and so expecting much thicker pay in alternate location.

Heron-1 - no water produced at all, very much thinking that its bigger than 25 MMBO recoverable pre drill estimates. This man seems to think the lack of any water means much bigger........ Mike has not said that yet, he refers only to the very conservative 15% recovery factor used pre-drill. Maybe he is saving the water/size upgrades for the presentations to come........

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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#261596

Postby Proselenes » November 2nd, 2019, 7:05 am

Looking at the potential news flow ahead :

Operational Update - completion of all testing operations at Heron-1 - (possible)

Block XX update - reserves and prospects - submission of documents to MRPAM for Exploitation License (probable)

Award of Exploitation License for Block XX (probable) (Dec 2019 or Jan 2020)


Once the Exploitation License is awarded then MATD have something with which to secure a Farm Out or Bank Loan so farm out/loan update Jan/Feb 2020

Post Exploitation License award - Ops Update Production start up progress (probable early 2020)

Production started Operations Update (early 2020)

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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#261935

Postby Proselenes » November 4th, 2019, 3:04 am

Cash forecast:

Based on my figures, which include a slight overrun of Heron-1 due to the G2G permit issue and then the cancellation of Velociraptor MATD will have net cash left on Dec 31st 2019 of 7.5m US$

Perhaps someone can ask Mike that on 12th November.

Production start up requires a couple of hundred thousand dollars only, just some facilities and storage tanks - everything else is there already.

.

(Note that the 16m US$ cash at half year end includes lots of advance payments for the drilling of RD-1, H-1 and G-1.......... long lead time items, deposits etc... all paid in advance. They dont just drill a well and pay the full amount on completion. Large part of well costs is paid in advance. )

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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#262162

Postby Proselenes » November 5th, 2019, 6:34 am

Questions for Mike for anyone going to this event :

https://www.lse.co.uk/events/oil-and-ga ... wzrhs.html


Estimation of 2019 year end cash level of 6m to 7.5m US$ range ?

Gazelle will be tested in April when testing rig can work again ?

Gazelle drilled on edge, expecting thicker play in alternate location and Gazelle also to be commercial with an appraisal drill ? If Gazelle1-1 flows in current location, will you put that on commercial production prior to an appraisal well ?

Stratigraphic trap play, proven in Gazelle, whats the upside in Block XX in terms of new prospects around Erdenetsagaan area (southern edge of Tamtsag basin) ? Old data would suggest over 300MMBO recoverable potential in Block XX.

Heron, given the shallower depth (increased area) and higher porosity - expecting an upgrade on the current 25 MMBO estimate ?

Will you be utilising a pump at Heron-1 to potentially flow at 1000bopd or higher ?

Once the Exploitation license is awarded and you have an asset with which to get an asset secured loan, will you pursue bank lending to develop Heron in the event PetroChina delay any farm in to it ?


I am sure we will have an operations update before the 12th, or on the 12th, so Mikes presentation can go into a lot more detail, so some of those questions might be answered already.

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Re: Petro Matad - Fully funded 6 well campaign for H2 2018/H1 2019

#262227

Postby Proselenes » November 5th, 2019, 10:30 am

Means we will get an Operations Update on or before the 12th of November. Looking forward to the updates and latest news on testing and everything else.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/petro-mat ... 00023019S/

.


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