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Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

Proselenes
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#254216

Postby Proselenes » September 26th, 2019, 10:28 pm

Arden update on JOG after the interims.

https://ufile.io/eknqqzlh

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Proselenes
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#256523

Postby Proselenes » October 8th, 2019, 9:17 am

Following the CPR and todays other news Arden increase target price to 600p

Flash note in the link below:

https://ufile.io/5cl8blvj

.

Proselenes
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#256868

Postby Proselenes » October 9th, 2019, 11:34 pm


Proselenes
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#314796

Postby Proselenes » June 3rd, 2020, 1:01 pm

New AGM presentation with narration.

https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/wp-cont ... ion4-1.mp4


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Toto
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#387930

Postby Toto » February 19th, 2021, 11:31 am

Question for dspp, if you’re reading please I’d appreciate your insight.
What is your view on Jog? Do you think the project will be successfully funded? Thank you so much. Appreciate your industry insight.
Would have liked to PM you, but the system would not allow me.

dspp
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#387980

Postby dspp » February 19th, 2021, 2:26 pm

Toto wrote:Question for dspp, if you’re reading please I’d appreciate your insight.
What is your view on Jog? Do you think the project will be successfully funded? Thank you so much. Appreciate your industry insight.
Would have liked to PM you, but the system would not allow me.


You can PM someone after a certain number of posts, I think it is five. You will likely get there soon ......

You can also quote someone, ordinarily using the " button on a post and that notifies someone that they have been quoted (look at your Notifications area, top right). In fact I have just done this for you. But you can use the text editor to call anyone's attention in the same way, so here is me nudging a chap called Nimrod103.

Nimrod103 wrote:Question for Nimrod, if you’re reading please I’d appreciate your insight.
What is your view on JOG? Do you think the project will be successfully funded? Thank you so much. Appreciate your industry insight.
Would have liked to PM you, but the system would not allow me.


I'm doing that because he may have more of an opinion on JOG than I do. To be honest I have no opinion on JOG as I have not looked into them at all as I have my hands full in other areas at present. If time allows I will take a look. However Nimrod has I think a decent insight into things, as for that matter so do many others here abouts. So best to ask everyone openly, rather than calling on me - I am no more a fount of wisdom than anyone else.

Everybody ?
================
Any view on JOG ?


By the way the best way to get good understanding of something is to encourage good quality users to congregate on the same forum. There are many good people out there but at the moment they are all splintered amongst ADVFN, LSE, and several other venues. But it is entirely up to people where they go, and TLF is in many ways an unfunded volunteer-managed venue that does not market itself. It is up to peoples ....

(PS. I will shortly delete your other post that was just trying to get my attention)

regards, dspp

Toto
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#388085

Postby Toto » February 20th, 2021, 12:16 am

Hi Proselenes
Out of interest, are you still in jog? You were posting a lot there but just stopped.

No one seems to be interested in jog here.

dspp
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#388147

Postby dspp » February 20th, 2021, 10:41 am

Toto wrote:Hi Proselenes
Out of interest, are you still in jog? You were posting a lot there but just stopped.

No one seems to be interested in jog here.


I had a look at JOG last night following your request. I once worked in the CNS so have some familiarity.

There are a lot of assets out there that are likely to become stranded. And a lot more prospects that will never be drilled. Some of these cluster plays may attract funding and may work and may turn a profit and may reward shareholders. JOG's Buchan cluster proposal might be one of these. If one has a very large amount of money then one could be the smart money that buys success. Otherwise with a small amount of money one is the dumb money that probably never has the right knowledge to enter and exit at the right moment. Makes for a very uneven risk playing field. Personally I will avoid.

I actually quite like some aspects of JOG's proposal, specifically where they are obviously going with electrification. However I think that the risk/reward profile wrt a smallbeer private investor is not to my liking.

When musing about this last night, whilst out for a walk, it seems to me that a lot of the oilpatch stranded assets are of the human variety. So we will see a lot more of these proposals put forwards by otherwise beached humans. Very sad, and something we should bear in mind as smallbeer private investors. I think BP announced they will shed about 600 of 700 G&G staff in their exploration team with no intention of rehiring. Not all of them are ready to retire, and not all are able to switch sectors (mostly because other sectors won't know how to value and absorb them), and so some will keep on trying to work up proposals that may never be viable.

JOG is one for the very high risk pot imho, if one has no inside understanding of timing/success, and yet wants to have exposure to this sector. Not for me at this time.

regards, dspp

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#388185

Postby Toto » February 20th, 2021, 1:29 pm

Thank you so much for taking the time. Highly appreciated. Need to hear it from someone who knows.

IronPyrites
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#388211

Postby IronPyrites » February 20th, 2021, 3:17 pm

Hi Toto

I have been invested in JOG for a couple of years over which time there has been considerable volatility in the share price. From around 70p to 250p then back to 50p and now back up near the 250p level.
The share price has been driven very much by sentiment and JOG have issued a string of optimistic RNS’s regarding licences, upgraded models and an increasing resource.

Looking at the negatives is always worth doing:

Firstly Verbier was their big hope and it disappointed. On appraisal what they found was way below expectations and Equinor decided to walk away. The reality is any discovery is likely to be too small to be useful to anybody otherwise it would have been drilled already.

Now the current excitement is regarding the Greater Buchan area.
JOG make it quite clear that recovery from Buchan area may be under 100 million barrels.
It was of course abandoned by Respol.
Would a major oil company with a production facility already there and all that cost sunk, with large teams of very competent people walk away with 100mmbbls left in the ground because they declined to undertake more detailed seismic profiling?
Bear in mind that new modelling and technical data is just that and not confirmation of anything.

Then there is the cost of proceeding.
Maybe 2 billion to put in a new platform and annual running costs in the region of 100m a year or 5 billion over 20 years.

You could also argue that the N Sea is no longer the most attractive place to spend exploration money. The basin is in decline. And to be honest oil is also a dying industry. Oil exploration is going become extinct and I suspect only the most attractive, near term, prospects will now be explored.

In such an environment I believe that JOG will struggle to find a farm-in partner. And in the diminishing likelihood that this does happen it would be a number of years before any oil was seen.

I’m not ruling out the possibility that a farm-in will occur but I think that some of the recent share price rise already factors in such a scenario. I currently still hold a residual amount of JOG but have reduced my holding by two thirds at current prices in the last week or two.

Having said all this I still believe that there is money to be made by investing in oil but there are much better options around than JOG at is current price.

Regards
Iron

Toto
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#388237

Postby Toto » February 20th, 2021, 4:37 pm

Thank you for your insight IP.

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#388250

Postby dspp » February 20th, 2021, 5:29 pm

Toto wrote:Thank you for your insight IP.


Toto,

Without digging into it in great detail I can't really comment much on the costs. What I can say is that the range of costs you've cited (£400m - £2000m) is a typical range at this point in time. It is only as you drill up the prospects and learn the vital information that you can refine the budget sufficiently to get to the point of a go/no-go decision. Right now suppliers/contractors will bite your hand off to give you a cheap rate so they have even a smidgin of work. But if you have to wait around 10-years figuring out what to do then the costs may be very high as few contractors will be left playing the game in declining areas like the North Sea. That is the reality of the background against which all these plays are being performed.

(I agree with everything IronPyrites has said btw).

I prefer to post openly on the TLF boards. That way everyone has the benefit of a community approach to things, whether it be O&G, renewables, pension planning, gardening, whatever. Thank you for your kind words in your PM.

Regards, dspp

Toto
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#388251

Postby Toto » February 20th, 2021, 5:38 pm

DSPP, thank you so much :) understood. Experts are experts, and I need to listen up :)

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#388263

Postby Toto » February 20th, 2021, 7:08 pm

IP, I presume you’re/were also in the industry?

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#388309

Postby IronPyrites » February 20th, 2021, 11:12 pm

Hi Toto

No I have never worked in the industry but I have been investing in E&P oil companies for a number of years. Reading round the subject a little and learning from those who have worked in the industry and are kind enough to share their knowledge has helped me. O&G investments are a much smaller proportion of my portfolio than they once were.
Its a sector in which it is easy to get your fingers burned. I haven't made my fortune with this part of my portfolio but I have enjoyed the ride. I've almost certainly made more money from a selection of SIPP held Investment Trusts.
That said JOG has been good to me and has more than offset a less good performance with Hurricane Oil & Gas - a recent favourite on this board.

Regards
Iron

Proselenes
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#391723

Postby Proselenes » March 3rd, 2021, 7:05 am


dspp
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#391759

Postby dspp » March 3rd, 2021, 9:54 am

Proselenes wrote:Certainly reads well.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/new ... e/14885290

.


Indeed it does read professionally.

1. If 3 yr plateau at 40k bopd is the best available, then CNS is definitely at picking up splinters stage. Which can go wrong, but all of phase 1 needs to be committed to find out if the splinter value is worth the pain. So one needs to think of ways to get out of jail if it goes wrong.
2. The import cable would be of the order of 10-20 MW maximum imho, could even be as small as 5MW depending on compression needs. So any short term prospect of reversing it and using it for a typical offshore wind export cable (500-1000 MW) would not be realistic. Out there you'd be looking at an array of (say) 50 x 20 MW floating wind turbines.
3. However you could cap off the wells in the dud case, crane on the transformers and HVDC modules, and get a real electric hub as a gathering station for CNS offshore wind.

I suspect there is background thinking going on along those lines in case the oil plays are not enough. Personally it does not tempt me.

regards, dspp

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#391920

Postby mearnsfool » March 3rd, 2021, 5:42 pm

How times change, in July 2013, experienced consultants like myself were being pestered twice a week to accept new oil industry jobs from various companies.

Less interest by September 2013 from recruiters.

I am still doing say 10 to 20 days consultancy a year after the state retirement age.

I never thought it would happen this fast, lucky I had all my finance ducks in a row from 2010 so no worries at all.

Proselenes
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#392156

Postby Proselenes » March 4th, 2021, 10:29 am


Toto
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#392551

Postby Toto » March 5th, 2021, 3:57 am

Just like to ask, after this concept detailing, this is still a no go? Avoid? Does their proposed plan work? Is funding likely? From what I read none of the posters here bought in? Thank you.


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