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Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

Proselenes
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#392963

Postby Proselenes » March 6th, 2021, 4:17 am

If it goes ahead, the share price is cheap. If it does not, the share price will collapse.

Very high risk/reward.

There are far better high reward but lower risk plays out there, so for me........its a no to JOG.

Proselenes
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#394596

Postby Proselenes » March 11th, 2021, 12:37 pm

Fund raise news..............just out, response to media speculation RNS.

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#396936

Postby IronPyrites » March 18th, 2021, 10:46 pm

Hi All

Jersey Gas and Oil presented on a proactive webinar this evening – here is their presentation:

https://wp-jerseyoilandgas-2020.s3.eu-w ... ebsite.pdf

It was an upbeat affair

It was highlighted that they had increased their portfolio in the Greater Buchanan Area by 40x through – licence awards, exploration and acquisitions.

They have completed their concept design (stressing thousands of hours of work) and have moved onto the front end engineering design (FEED) to be completed by Q3 this year.

A recent oversubscribed fund raising/ book building exercise at 1.65p has added £15m to their balance sheet and this will:
1. Add power to their arm in farm-in negotiations.
2. Means that they can maintain momentum progressing FEED

They plan a low carbon (electric) platform at the centre with the capacity to act as a hub to the wider area. Stressing these ESG credentials.

Both gas and oil export routes are well established for the area.

They have run up to date modelling built on well established historic data and then extrapolating forward. The Buchanan Oil Field has a long history of successful production before being abandoned when the platform finally gave out.
They predict 172mm/boe 2C recoverable resources and at peak production costing less than $10/boe.

The upfront costs (£1billion is their estimate) will be covered in 3-4 years by the free cash flow.

They are currently active in looking for a partner suggesting that this will take 4-8 months. And this would:
1. Bring major funding
2. Give industry validation to the project

First oil is predicted at the end of 2025.

They also suggested that successful exploration at Wengen would significantly add to the economics with pre-tax cash flow of $3.3 bn.

All very positive.

Less positive has been the pre-raise leak of information dropping the share price from 230p to 160p. Without this the raise could have been at a higher price and hurt current shareholders less.
Their comments on this were that they did not know who was responsible but were investigating.

Apart from the affects of the leak market sentiment is with them and the share price has already bounced back to over 180p.

As I have said before this is an expensive project, in a world where oil will be replaced largely by renewables in the future, though perhaps not for a number of years.
They need a partner with deep pockets and have given themselves a timeline of 8 months or less.
If they achieve this it will be a major milestone and the share price will reflect this.
I suspect they won’t manage this in the time-frame they have set.

There will also be inevitable delays and extra costs – projects of this kind never run to schedule with management always being too optimistic.

I reduced my holding in JOG by 2/3rds recently and have been debating what to do with my residual shares.
Positive sentiment, management confidence, a progressing farm-out process and share price momentum means I will hang on in for the moment while looking for a better exit price probably before the 8 months is up.

Regards
Iron

Proselenes
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#408253

Postby Proselenes » April 30th, 2021, 8:13 am

Arden Update 30 April 2021

.......Conclusion:

JOG’s GBA project (based on the Buchan oil field, J2 and Verbier oil discoveries alongside a number of exploration prospects) has transformed the company’s asset position. It puts JOG in charge of 162mmboe of gross 2C economic resources, which the companyplans to use as the base for a new hub development in the area (planned to also facilitate tie-back development of any further JOG discoveries, and third-party fields). Progression of this project, with first oil planned for 2025, would make JOG an increasingly significant UK E&P company, likely to draw increasing amounts of investor attention.Going forward, we look for continuation of the important farm out process (on the main GBA development, but also likely including the surrounding exploration assets), which recently commenced and should provide an update during Q3 2021, with FEED from H2 2021 and then FID in H2 2022. There is also the ongoing potential for new production acquisitions as assets continue to change hands in the UK North Sea. This provides plenty of potential for news flow in the coming months, and beyond this a route towards first oil.

The recent £16.6m equity raise, adding to the c.£5m end 2020 cash holding, creates a strong funding position for the farm out process and initial FEED work. In our view, the market is yet to fully appreciate JOG’s current asset position, but progression through a successful farm out process and subsequent development work should act as important events in demonstrating the materiality and significance of this over 2021. We have a Buy recommendation and 750p price target.

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#498560

Postby Proselenes » May 5th, 2022, 2:00 am

New all time share price high is coming fast.......

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#504134

Postby Carcosa » June 1st, 2022, 7:06 am

AGM Presentation here which essentially confirms that GBA farm-out is #1 priority and a 2022 deliverable.

Also

Latest Arden broker report discussing UK windfall tax wrt JOG.

"Based on the short-term incentives for all UK producers created by the new windfall tax, we would expect this to prove to be a positive for JOG and its GBA farm out process in the round."

Hopefully will make a nice Christmas present for shareholders!

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#579728

Postby Proselenes » March 31st, 2023, 8:22 am

Good news might be on its way......finally :)


https://www.investegate.co.uk/jersey-oi ... 00048315U/

Greater Buchan Area Farm-out Update

Jersey Oil & Gas (AIM: JOG), an independent upstream oil and gas company focused on the UK Continental Shelf region of the North Sea, is pleased to provide an update on the status of the GBA farm-out process.

The Company is in advanced exclusive negotiations with a significant UK North Sea operator. Heads of terms have been agreed for the farm-out of a material interest in the GBA licences to this company and both parties are working towards finalising a fully termed agreement in the near future. An exclusivity period until 30th April 2023 has been agreed.

Andrew Benitz, CEO of Jersey Oil & Gas, commented :

"We are pleased to be in advanced exclusive negotiations with a well-funded industry heavyweight and whilst there can be no guarantees of a successful conclusion, we are aiming to finalise the farm-out in the near future and look forward to updating shareholders shortly."

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#579741

Postby Proselenes » March 31st, 2023, 8:52 am

Image

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#579742

Postby Carcosa » March 31st, 2023, 8:54 am

The fact that an exclusivity period has been agreed upon until April 30th, 2023, indicates that the Company and the UK North Sea operator are committed to finalising the deal in the near future. However I would suggest far from a slam dunk.

Thought it was interesting tha Ithaca's CEO stated some of the unintended consequences about the energy profits levy which would also apply to JOG...

“One is the joint venture partner confidence. Ithaca is very committed to developing these assets, but we never develop alone, and some of our partners have decided to minimise UK investment. That’s not just on Cambo, but across multiple assets.

“The other unintended consequence is debt availability. There is a mature reduction in the debt capacity industry. When those two factors combine, it ultimately means we won’t be able to accelerate development as we had planned.”

On whether Ithaca still plans to take the investment plunge on Cambo this year, he said that “very constructive discussions” are ongoing with the government and industry regulator to “see what can be done to modify EPL 2”.

Mr Myerson added: “I think it very much depends on the UK Government support; it’s critical to encourage them to support the UK North Sea to deliver domestic energy security. Without their support, it will be very difficult to sanction.”


Without clarity on 'EPL2' I can imagine some of the major investors in NS would not want to announce a deal with JOG (and others) until some form of firm/positive commitment has been received from the Government wrt EPL2.

My belief is that JOG will always come good; but not within the timescales retail investors are happy with. Hence am nursing significant losses with JOG but waiting it out!

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#581058

Postby Proselenes » April 6th, 2023, 7:05 am

Greater Buchan Area Farm-out

Jersey Oil & Gas (AIM: JOG), an independent upstream oil and gas company focused on the UK Continental Shelf region of the North Sea, is pleased to announce that it has agreed to farm-out a 50% interest in the Greater Buchan Area ("GBA") licences to NEO Energy ("NEO").

Highlights

-- Material value : The transaction delivers material value to JOG, including cash payments, funding through to Field Development Plan ("FDP") approval and a minimum 12.5% development expenditure carry to first oil for the 50% interest retained by the Company

-- Unlocks GBA resources : Unlocks the route to finalising the GBA development solution and monetisation of resources in excess of 100 million barrels of oil equivalent

-- Strong industry partner : NEO is a major UK North Sea operator producing approximately 90,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and is backed by HitecVision, a leading private equity investor focused on Europe's offshore energy industry with $8 billion of assets under management

-- Value catalysts : Clear path to development sanction and first oil, with opportunity to create further value through additional farm-out transactions

-- Low carbon development : NEO and JOG are committed to evaluating options to give the GBA development flagship status for its low carbon credentials through the use of existing infrastructure and potential low carbon electrification options

Transaction Summary

In exchange for entering into definitive agreements to divest a 50% working interest and operatorship in the GBA licences to NEO, the Company will receive:

-- 12.5% carry of the Buchan field development costs included in the FDP approved by the North Sea Transition Authority ("NSTA"); equivalent to a 1.25 carry ratio

-- Carry for JOG's 50% share of the estimated $25 million cost to take the Buchan field through to FDP approval

-- $2 million cash payment on completion of the transaction

-- $9.4 million cash payment upon finalisation of the GBA development solution

-- $12.5 million cash payment on approval of the Buchan FDP by the NSTA

-- $5 million cash payment on each FDP approval by the NSTA in respect of the J2 and Verbier oil discoveries

The primary conditions precedent to completing the transaction are receipt of the approvals from the NSTA for the transaction and the associated extension of the Company's two GBA licences. Following completion of the transaction, operatorship of the licences will transfer to NEO.

The Company will be working in partnership with NEO to select the preferred development solution, having confirmed a short list of attractive options for the GBA which utilise existing North Sea infrastructure. The unstable fiscal conditions resulting from the introduction and revision of the Energy Profits Levy during 2022 have been challenging. As the joint venture moves forward towards first oil, which is targeted for 2026, it will be mindful of the future fiscal attractiveness of the UK.

The Company intends to farm-out additional equity in the GBA licences in order to ultimately retain a 20-25% carried interest in the development following FDP approval. NEO has an option to increase its 50% interest in the Buchan licence by up to an additional 37.5% in exchange for a further cash payment should any of JOG's equity share in the development remain unfunded ahead of FDP submission, with such payment being the pro-rated balance of future cash payments due to JOG post completion in relation to the GBA development solution and Buchan FDP as outlined above.

JOG remains well funded for its on-going and planned work programmes, with a cash balance of approximately GBP6.5 million as at 31 December 2022. It is intended that the cash payments anticipated to be received from NEO following completion of the transaction will be utilised to pursue the Company's stated growth strategy and provide additional working capital for the Company.

The Company intends to issue its financial results for the year ended 31 December 2022 in the second half of May 2023.

Andrew Benitz, CEO of Jersey Oil & Gas, commented :

"We are delighted to announce this transaction with NEO Energy, a well-funded industry heavyweight and the fifth largest producer in the UKCS. The farm-out marks a major value creation moment for JOG, a significant de-risking of the GBA development programme, from both an operational and funding perspective, and provides the springboard from which to grow the long-term value of the business. We are looking forward to working collaboratively with NEO Energy to select the optimal development solution for the GBA and taking the project through to sanction and on into future production."

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#582490

Postby Proselenes » April 13th, 2023, 4:48 am



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