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Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

Proselenes
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#239734

Postby Proselenes » July 27th, 2019, 2:40 pm

I think when AB said there are "multiple catalysts" in the remainder of 2019, it means we are going to get lots of news flow......this below from the results statement.


https://www.investegate.co.uk/jersey-oil---38--gas-plc--jog-/rns/final-results-for-the-year-ended-31-december-2018/201905200700204835Z/


Andrew Benitz, CEO of Jersey Oil & Gas, commented:

"JOG continues to benefit from our initial Verbier oil discovery announced in 2017, notwithstanding the recent appraisal well results. We look forward to delivery of the new 3D seismic data and working with our co-venturers on assessing potential future appraisal and exploration drilling opportunities on the licence area. Additionally, we are excited by the potential for a new area hub catalysed by the 31st Supplementary Offshore Licensing Round and the positive impact we believe this will have for Verbier.

"The Company benefits from a strong funding position and we are optimistic that we can create value for shareholders through our core asset base, with multiple catalysts that exist for the Company through the remainder of 2019."

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Proselenes
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#240322

Postby Proselenes » July 29th, 2019, 10:45 pm

Worth re-reading these articles discussing the Greater Buchan Area when it was up for grabs. This is the exciting opportunity which can be put into production with tie backs to existing pipelines..........which JOG was awarded.


https://af.reuters.com/article/commodit ... FL5N1ZU7G7

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/n ... lyst-says/


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Proselenes
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#240652

Postby Proselenes » July 30th, 2019, 10:42 pm

Write up on JOG. PDF file in the link below.

https://www.atlanticmarkets.co.uk/download/232/Report?

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Proselenes
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#241190

Postby Proselenes » August 2nd, 2019, 3:49 am

Just to give some figures for reference.

The House Broker believes :


Current cash level is 15m GBP.

JOG to end 2019 with 10m GBP cash.

Unrisked NAV is 2462 pence per share - reducing to 1231 pence per share when Equinor take their 50% (current share price only just over 200 pence per share)

Risked NAV of 1074 pence per share - reducing to 537 pence a share when Equinor take their 50%.

JOG have the funds for the FDP and also a well on p2170 in 2020. Drilling plans for 2020 should be known by end of 2019.

CPR will be coming in Q4 2019.

In effect, what I take, keep on accumulating JOG shares and when Equinor exercise their option in the coming months the share price should move up much closer to the Risked NAV of 537 pence a share post Equinor option.

Q4 will see the CPR released and also drilling plans for 2020 and so Q4 should also see a significant uplift to the Risked NAV from 537p up to ??? and so the share price should rise as well with that.

Basically, anything below 300p should see a decent profit when Equinor take the option in a month or two and should rise further come Q4 and the CPR/drilling plans.

Broker current target price pre-Equinor taking their option is 450p.

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#241562

Postby Proselenes » August 4th, 2019, 2:19 am

If anyone wants to download and read the Arden Partners note on (Jersey Oil and Gas) JOG then you can in the link below:

https://ufile.io/vkxk1z9x


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Proselenes
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#246444

Postby Proselenes » August 23rd, 2019, 7:25 am

https://www.investegate.co.uk/jersey-oi ... 00069994J/

Another 14 MMBO to JOG.

JOG now has 123.5 MMBO of proven recoverable oil.


(ECO has less than 40MMBO by the way....compare the market caps)




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Proselenes
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#246456

Postby Proselenes » August 23rd, 2019, 8:18 am

Nice post on LSE....... someones summary of JOG. I would agree that ultimately JOG will be 1000p before too many moons pass, it will come in stages and reward those who keep holding and wait :



RE: Time for some simple maths.Today 08:12

I get your gist PC01, but not your maths :-)

I work on a conservative value of $7 per barrel. This is an estimated selling price achievable for discovered resources in the ground pre-infrastructure spend, in an area of the NS that's close to the Forties Pipeline for tie-back purposes (recent evidence is there to support this price - higher actually).

JOG has 18% of Verbier's minimum of 25m barrels, which is 4.5mmboe. Add to that the 52.5mmboe (net of likely transfer to Equinor) in Buchan & J2 and this gets us to 57mmboe (ie 57 million barrels of oil equivalent -'oil' - in simple terms). Today's addition takes us to 71mmboe.

71mmboe alone (ignoring the value of hundreds of millions of barrels of prospective resources across JOG's five contiguous licences) gives us a value of $497m - say $500m. I don't really see a reason to discount the $7pb but, even if one did, it would still leave a value of the discovered resources alone of $250m - or £200m using a $/£ rate of 1.25.

This is £9.16 per share (I think much higher because I wouldn't discount my $7pb by 50%). Throw in 84p for the rest of what JOG has (not least extremely talented and committed management and staff) as we're being ultra conservative - and £12m of cash, plus the prospective resources referred to above, and say £10 a share. I'm doubtful the directors would entertain a bid at that level.

One day the penny will drop

dyor

Proselenes
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#246670

Postby Proselenes » August 24th, 2019, 12:09 am

Arden have increased their Target Price for JOG to 550p a share from 450p a share following this extra license award.

They assumed that the newly awarded license will also see JOG give 50% to Equinor and so included just 50% of the new license into their NAV modelling.

Anyway, their new NAV are :

Risked NAV now 597p a share and unrisked NAV 1352p a share (these NAV values based on long term oil price of 65 US$ per barrel)


Unrisked 1352p a share after the 50% Equinor option take up (or as we stand now 2704p a share 100% owned)

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#246983

Postby Proselenes » August 26th, 2019, 3:12 am

Arden Flash Update on JOG in the link below (PDF file)

http://s000.tinyupload.com/?file_id=029 ... 5959236408

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#247391

Postby Proselenes » August 28th, 2019, 2:22 am


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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#248940

Postby Proselenes » September 3rd, 2019, 3:31 pm


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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#249281

Postby Proselenes » September 4th, 2019, 3:29 pm

The conclusion from the new Arden note makes interesting reading. For the first time they mention potential farm out.

So the news flow to get the JOG price up to a more proper nigher value is.... Equinor deal, farm out, CPR's and p2170 update and drilling program news......all possibly in the final months of 2019 it seems. Loads of news ahead.



Conclusion

The award of Buchan,J2 and Glenn is a very substantial event for JOG, transforming asset value and the company’s activity schedule going forward. The various valuations that we have set out above show a very wide potential range, but even the lowest of all of these, at 292p, is materially above current levels. As such, we are of the view that the value of the asset awards is yet to be fully appreciated by the market.

The route to realising a greater portion of the value of JOG’s assets is also set out above, and includes progression of the development plan, potential farm out, new CPRs and clarity on the 2020/21 P2170 work programme in the coming months. This should then be followed by further development planning progress,potential P2170 drilling in 2020 and potential drilling on the new exploration assets, alongside the ever-present possibility of production acquisitions.

The substantial discount to our base case risked NAV, combined with the upcoming newsflow, supports our Buy recommendation and 550p target price.

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#249333

Postby Proselenes » September 4th, 2019, 6:24 pm

The various valuations scenarios for JOG by Arden:

Image

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Proselenes
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#249454

Postby Proselenes » September 5th, 2019, 7:35 am

For your weekend reading.

21 page September 2019 note on JOG by Arden.

https://uploadfiles.io/k1e9wtbs

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Proselenes
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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#251287

Postby Proselenes » September 12th, 2019, 8:42 am

DNO looking to buy North Sea development and production assets.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/producti ... 2-1-670325

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#251297

Postby dspp » September 12th, 2019, 9:16 am

Proselenes wrote:DNO looking to buy North Sea development and production assets.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/producti ... 2-1-670325

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Centrica's share (2/3) of Spirit is for sale ....... which would make any buyer of the share the HUR partner 50/50 on LinWar, via Spirit.

Which fairly soon will require a £bn FID committment. Whether £1bn or £5bn, and whether staged or all-in-one go remains to be seen.

Centrica may find they have a bidding war on their hands if Spirit are perceived as the low cost way into Rona Ridge.

So JOG may have to put up a cheaper for sale sign ....

regards, dspp

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#251750

Postby Proselenes » September 14th, 2019, 4:19 am

So events moving forward.

JOG have a Capital Markets Day event in London on 8th October. What new info is going to be released before then or on that day in an RNS ahead of the presentations ?

Equinor quarterly update due 24th October (which means they will be having a board meeting earlier in October).

3 months option for Equinor entering into the deal with JOG, also ends during the week ending Friday 25th October.

October is going to be fun :)

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#252621

Postby Proselenes » September 19th, 2019, 7:31 am

News out today with formal completion of licensing.

Also a brand new Corporate Presentation released :

https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/wp-cont ... vFinal.pdf

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#252687

Postby Proselenes » September 19th, 2019, 12:49 pm

Arden Partners flash update on JOG following todays news:

https://ufile.io/0qq26sub

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Re: Jersey Oil and Gas (JOG) - North Sea Oil

#254043

Postby Proselenes » September 26th, 2019, 10:21 am

https://www.malcysblog.com/2019/09/jog- ... gulfsands/


Jersey Oil & Gas

JOG interims this morning which show no surprises but the CEO makes a number of key points ahead of the upcoming Capital Markets Day. Cash is at £15.5m at period end and whilst there a number of modest calls on the balance sheet upcoming the company is strongly placed at the moment.

JOG has had a very busy time recently and best described by CEO Andrew Benitz ‘the period has been transformational as the company has begun work on a full re-evaluation of the P2170 Licence Area and after significant effort and investment JOG was awarded 100% WI and operatorship of 4 blocks in the Greater Buchan Area’. It is worth noting that Equinor is still contemplating its option to back-in before 22nd October.

There is potentially massive upside for this area where the CNS can still deliver a sizeable JOG operated hub. With this potential and the company gearing up with key personnel ahead of the programme the company is a very exciting prospect. The Capital Markets Day on the 8th October will be worth listening to as the company delivers its plans and work programme ahead and shareholders should very much look forward to it. A leader in the Bucket list and likely to remain so…


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