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Storage stuff

dspp
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Storage stuff

#180176

Postby dspp » November 14th, 2018, 9:41 am

A couple of acquisitions:

Trojan merges with C&D
https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ar ... id=2300097

Nant acquires Sharp storage
https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ar ... id=2300097

Whilst I'm at it, a repost of the big California projects
https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ar ... id=2300097

And a battery boom according to Bloomberg (BNEF)
https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ar ... id=2300097

six key takeaways from the latest BNEF battery forecast:

Annual energy-storage deployments are now forecast to exceed 50 gigawatt-hours by 2020. That’s three years earlier than BNEF’s outlook from just last year.
Energy storage may be equivalent to 7 percent of the world’s total installed power capacity by 2040.
The Asia-Pacific region will be home to 45 percent of total installations on a megawatt basis by 2040. Another 29 percent will be spread across Europe, Middle East and Africa. The remainder will be in the Americas.
The majority of storage capacity will be utility-scale until the mid-2030s. But then so-called behind-the-meter projects — installations at businesses, industrial sites and residential properties — will overtake utility-scale.
A list of the leading battery countries is topped by who you would expect: China, U.S., India, Japan, Germany, France, Australia, South Korea and the U.K. South Korea today dominates the market but will be overtaken by the U.S. early in the 2020s — and both will later be eclipsed by China.
Storage is coming to developing countries in Africa, too. BNEF explains it thusly: utilities will likely recognize that the combination of solar, diesel and batteries in “far-flung sites” is cheaper than extending the power grid or building a fossil-only generator.


dspp
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Re: Storage stuff

#193922

Postby dspp » January 16th, 2019, 9:14 am

Energy Storage Outlook for 2019

........ On the battery manufacturing side of the lithium supply chain, 2018 was a defining year for all companies in common concerning the announcement of new production capacity. Throughout 2018, large players such as BYD, CATL, LG Chem and many others announced strategic plans to stay ahead of the industry. Expansion plans that were announced include LG Chem’s global expansion by 32GWh, CATL Chinese and German expansion by 38 GWh and BYD Chinese expansion by 60 GWh..........

.........Even these few lithium battery manufacturers have charted a path to over 100 GWh of battery expansion plans over the next few years. Beyond 2020, consider that CATL has already announced its intention to ramp-up global lithium battery production to at least 100 GWh and Tesla has indicated that it will aim to increase GigaFactory 1 production output to 150 GWh.

........the electric bus market has reached a tipping point led by full fleet transition in China, with a very encouraging list of pilot projects by nearly all major North American and European transit authorities.

...predictions for 2019:

Record number of electric vehicles sales in the global passenger market
Increase in the number of electric vehicle options available to consumers
Ongoing pilot projects and overall shift to electric municipal bus fleets
Ramp in utility-scale mega-projects in the stationary energy storage market
Hypergrowth in the residential energy storage (RESS) markets in Europe, USA, Caribbean and Australia
RESS integration with Energy Block Chain / Virtual Power Plants, Internet of Things, Artificial Intelligence
Strong advancements in the microgrid markets focused on providing energy access to underdeveloped and developing regions of the world
Hyper-growth in the EV charging infrastructure
Battery plant development, including: new facilities, facilities expansion, financing (capital raises), construction development and other related information
Entrance of new players into the lithium supply chain
Mega-supply announcements throughout the supply chain (ie: cells, battery modules, chemicals)

https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ar ... id=2346309

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Re: Storage stuff

#197876

Postby dspp » January 31st, 2019, 10:56 am

by way of SA peeps re Tesla lithium storage vs flow storage
https://seekingalpha.com/article/423656 ... chnologies

As if by coincidence job adverts for flow batteries landed on my desk today. Only US citizens or residents need apply. Drop me a PM if that is you, and you like MA.

regards, dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#240730

Postby dspp » July 31st, 2019, 9:02 am

cross-post headsup re small storage in UK
viewtopic.php?f=40&t=18807

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Re: Storage stuff

#241016

Postby gbjbaanb » August 1st, 2019, 11:46 am

dspp wrote:by way of SA peeps re Tesla lithium storage vs flow storage
https://seekingalpha.com/article/423656 ... chnologies

As if by coincidence job adverts for flow batteries landed on my desk today. Only US citizens or residents need apply. Drop me a PM if that is you, and you like MA.

regards, dspp


Interesting - because my old favourite RED is reverse-merging with a US flow battery company caled Avalon. Will be the biggest alternative storage company in the world afterwards apparently (thought maybe the bar isn't set particularly high to say that).

Apart from the idiot ex-CEO spending all RED's money on salespeople, maybe getting the Americans on board is what was needed to kick the flow machines into more awareness.

That article has some flaws, eg the operating temp was improved in 2012 (compare to li-ion which can handle wider temps but at much reduced capacity outside 10-40 degrees and potentially catastrophic failure above 60), and their charging speed is pretty much the same as the discharge speed. His talk of ultrabatteries though, sounds like what RED did with their revamped units for the Germans project that caused them so much trouble - putting lithium packs on the front which are backed by vanadium to get the benefits of quick reaction time and longer-cycled storage. Hybrids like this will be the future I guess.

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Re: Storage stuff

#241813

Postby dspp » August 5th, 2019, 11:27 am

"Energy storage installations around the world will multiply exponentially, from a modest 9GW / 17GWh deployed as of 2018 to 1,095GW / 2,850GWh by 2040, according to the latest forecast from research company BloombergNEF

This 122-fold boom of stationary energy storage over the next two decades will require $662 billion of investment, according to BNEF estimates. It will be made possible by further sharp declines in the cost of lithium-ion batteries, on top of an 85% reduction in the 2010-18 period......

....predicts a further halving of lithium-ion battery costs per kilowatt-hour by 2030

....Two big changes this year are that we have raised our estimate of the investment that will go into energy storage by 2040 by more than $40 billion, and that we now think the majority of new capacity will be utility-scale*, rather than behind-the-meter at homes and businesses.”


Image

release : https://about.bnef.com/blog/energy-stor ... xt-decade/

(* as has been my prediction for a long time !)

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Re: Storage stuff

#242220

Postby dspp » August 6th, 2019, 8:58 pm

mainstream press clueing in on the VAT problem, such an easy one to resolve

and to proclaim that resolution could only be done outside of the EU (utter tosh)

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... port-warns
https://www.woodmac.com/reports/power-m ... 24-329697/

anyway they are lining the ducks up

- dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#242435

Postby gbjbaanb » August 7th, 2019, 2:10 pm

The EU rules state what VAT has to be (something they "harmonised" to prevent VAT carousel fraud IIRC - any excuse to centralise things).

So while we could get rid of VAT, it'd have to be done at the EU level - or by leaving and then setting whatever we liked independently.

Besides, the Guardian atricle linked to in the Guardian article says:

HMRC has blamed EU tax laws for the planned rise because they rule out lower VAT rates for energy saving equipment under state aid rules.

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Re: Storage stuff

#261232

Postby dspp » October 31st, 2019, 10:41 am

Statement of the blindingly obvious, but lithium is winning massively in grid scale storage, and flow batteries look to be a lost cause.

Most utility-scale batteries in the United States are made of lithium-ion
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41813

Image

regards, dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#261260

Postby PeterGray » October 31st, 2019, 11:54 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Can't help being confused dot com here. On the left it shows about 210 MW of storage, if that ran for one hour it would yield 210 MW/hours of storage. So, how come the right hand picture clearly shows around 500 MW/hours capacity?


Presumably the installed storage can produce x MW of power, but can maintain that production for, on average, around 3 hours

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Re: Storage stuff

#261297

Postby dspp » October 31st, 2019, 1:55 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
PeterGray wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Can't help being confused dot com here. On the left it shows about 210 MW of storage, if that ran for one hour it would yield 210 MW/hours of storage. So, how come the right hand picture clearly shows around 500 MW/hours capacity?


Presumably the installed storage can produce x MW of power, but can maintain that production for, on average, around 3 hours

Unless I am seriously misunderstanding here, it is simply impossible to have more than 200 MW/hour storage from a 200 MW battery array? You could have 400 MW/half hour or 800 MW/quarter hour. But never, ever 500 MW/hour?


You are misunderstanding it :)

As an example a 200 MWh storage might be able to discharge at a rate of 400 MW, but of course it would only last about 30-minutes. This is an example of a system that would be intended for short duration grid support.

Alternatively a 200 MWh storage might be able to discharge at 10 MW and would so last 20-hours. If so this would be an example of a system that would be intended for diurnal compensation.

regards, dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#261411

Postby GoSeigen » November 1st, 2019, 7:11 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Can't help being confused dot com here. On the left it shows about 210 MW of storage, if that ran for one hour it would yield 210 MW/hours of storage. So, how come the right hand picture clearly shows around 500 MW/hours capacity?



-The left chart shows power capacity: this is the total power that can be supplied/released, measured in Watts; it's the speed at which energy is supplied.
-The right chart shows energy capacity: this is the total energy that can be stored, measured in Joules (or MWh which is the same thing in different units). NB: "MW/h" which you wrote above is meaningless.

To put it another way, the first chart shows the maximum release rate of the energy stored as shown in the second chart, i.e. the power in watts is the number of joules per second of energy that can be supplied.


GS

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Re: Storage stuff

#261552

Postby GoSeigen » November 1st, 2019, 7:58 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Correct. The graphic is wrong. It is impossible to deliver 500WWh from a 200MWh storage array. You CAN delivery 500MW from the 200MWh array but for 2/5ths of an hour.


Personally I can't see anything wrong with the graphic. It simply says that 200MW of power has come on-stream in 2018, drawn from total energy storage of 500 MWh.

If a single kettle draws 2kW then the 2018 installations can power up to 100,000 kettles for a total of two and a half hours.

GS

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Re: Storage stuff

#261553

Postby GoSeigen » November 1st, 2019, 8:02 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Au contraire, Monsieur dspp as they probably don't say in France. We are saying the same thing. 200MW on the left picture is an instantaneous power measurement. 200MW/hours is energy storage/consumption measurement because it factors the MWs over time. So - from a 200MW/hour array you can indeed release 500 MW for 200/500ths of an hour. But it is simply impossible to deliver 500MW/hrs from a 200MW/hour storage array.


As I said before, the term "200MW/hours" is meaningless.

It's 200MWh. That's a measure of energy. If you use the correct units people might have a chance of understanding what you are trying to say!


GS

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Re: Storage stuff

#274403

Postby TUK020 » January 1st, 2020, 11:51 am

GoSeigen wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Correct. The graphic is wrong. It is impossible to deliver 500WWh from a 200MWh storage array. You CAN delivery 500MW from the 200MWh array but for 2/5ths of an hour.


Personally I can't see anything wrong with the graphic. It simply says that 200MW of power has come on-stream in 2018, drawn from total energy storage of 500 MWh.

If a single kettle draws 2kW then the 2018 installations can power up to 100,000 kettles for a total of two and a half hours.

GS


Your interpretation is correct GS.

However, the discussion around the units on this chart is missing the key point. This shows installed battery capacity by cell type/chemistry. More relevant is the advances and scaleability in liquid air storage. For grid scale, this may prove to be ahead of chemical storage

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Re: Storage stuff

#274413

Postby dspp » January 1st, 2020, 12:36 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
TUK020 wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:
Personally I can't see anything wrong with the graphic. It simply says that 200MW of power has come on-stream in 2018, drawn from total energy storage of 500 MWh.

If a single kettle draws 2kW then the 2018 installations can power up to 100,000 kettles for a total of two and a half hours.

GS


Your interpretation is correct GS.

However, the discussion around the units on this chart is missing the key point. This shows installed battery capacity by cell type/chemistry. More relevant is the advances and scaleability in liquid air storage. For grid scale, this may prove to be ahead of chemical storage

I entirely agree. (Lack of) grid scale storage is becoming a critical issue. I think it was in The Times, in 2019 48.5% of UK generation was non-fossil fuel. A truly remarkable change I never thought I'd live to see. Grid scale energy storage I see as the next obvious big leap forward. Yet I see little appetite. I have closely watched a business called Storelectric who have singularly failed to date to fund even a pilot scale compressed air energy storage plant. A recent crowd funding attempt mostly failed to raise capital to move it forward. What the catalyst will be that causes grid scale energy storage plants to be built? I simply do not know.


Need & money.

At the moment the need is not there except for very small scale stuff which in the UK is already being done in the fast frequency response market, which is a commercial auction. The technology already exists and is scaling fast, but it is more commercially attractive to use it in mobility applications (from laptops to scooters to bikes to cars) than in static applications. You have to remember that a country like the UK has a first wave adopter advantage in that gas-turbine installations that become uneconomic due to merit order effect can see out the end of their lives as cheap grid backup.

Compressed air storage is imho the wrong approach. Most people agree with me which is why it does not get funded, or win any of the commercial money auctions in this sector.

regards, dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#274421

Postby dspp » January 1st, 2020, 1:08 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
dspp wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:I entirely agree. (Lack of) grid scale storage is becoming a critical issue. I think it was in The Times, in 2019 48.5% of UK generation was non-fossil fuel. A truly remarkable change I never thought I'd live to see. Grid scale energy storage I see as the next obvious big leap forward. Yet I see little appetite. I have closely watched a business called Storelectric who have singularly failed to date to fund even a pilot scale compressed air energy storage plant. A recent crowd funding attempt mostly failed to raise capital to move it forward. What the catalyst will be that causes grid scale energy storage plants to be built? I simply do not know.


Need & money.

At the moment the need is not there except for very small scale stuff which in the UK is already being done in the fast frequency response market, which is a commercial auction. The technology already exists and is scaling fast, but it is more commercially attractive to use it in mobility applications (from laptops to scooters to bikes to cars) than in static applications. You have to remember that a country like the UK has a first wave adopter advantage in that gas-turbine installations that become uneconomic due to merit order effect can see out the end of their lives as cheap grid backup.

Compressed air storage is imho the wrong approach. Most people agree with me which is why it does not get funded, or win any of the commercial money auctions in this sector.

regards, dspp

I see the landscape changing. When we have the next generation of multiple GW wind power arrays on line there will be much more need to soak up wind generation. Presently we pay the wind turbine operators to come off line. Far more effective to give the power being generated to a CAES operator who can soak up all those surplus megawatts by pushing high pressure air into underground ex-salt caverns? Grid scale CAES time may well be just around the corner after many false dawns.


Have you done the sums ?

(I have, and I have written about the conclusions here on TLF as well as on TMF if you use the search function)

dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#274429

Postby TUK020 » January 1st, 2020, 1:47 pm

dspp wrote:
Compressed air storage is imho the wrong approach. Most people agree with me which is why it does not get funded, or win any of the commercial money auctions in this sector.

regards, dspp


dspp
Does your "compressed air storage" comment apply to Highview Power's Liquid Air Energy Storage (LAES) technology?
Would be interested in understanding your thinking on this
tuk020

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Re: Storage stuff

#274445

Postby dspp » January 1st, 2020, 2:48 pm

TUK020 wrote:
dspp wrote:
Compressed air storage is imho the wrong approach. Most people agree with me which is why it does not get funded, or win any of the commercial money auctions in this sector.

regards, dspp


dspp
Does your "compressed air storage" comment apply to Highview Power's Liquid Air Energy Storage (LAES) technology?
Would be interested in understanding your thinking on this
tuk020


Yes.

There may be special cases, but until/unless I see someone do the sums to suggest otherwise I think that the technology pathway of lithium battery storage is the most attractive one.

An example of a special case is pump/storage hydro where a favourable location combines with both good sources and good loads. There aren't so many of those, and they tend not to be globally scaleable. Nor is the technology cost curve helping them deploy.

I've also done the sums as you know, both for how much storage is required, and when it is required. Likewise I have thoughts about where it is required in grid architecture terms. None of this suggests an urgent need to scale static storage massively for another decade. Interesting and quite sizeable experiments, yes. Massive scaling, no. *

I'm not saying that compressed air storage cannot happen, but it is for the proponents of it to do the sums in all respects, and show them openly. Not just the hand wavey stuff that we see too much of.

(there are some sums in discussion occasionally on the Tesla thread at viewtopic.php?f=76&t=5037&p=274442#p274442, and that is about as close as you can get to an investable storage play imho. Mind you it comes with a lot of trailing wires attached. The others that I know in this space that I think are potentially viable are nowhere near pure plays, and have even more wires attached ........ ! But in any case any storage play needs to do a full & fully disclosed analysis of themselves and of lithium on a level playing field basis before they deserve attention)

regards, dspp

* If you look at the Tesla numbers I give you can see that static storage has declined from 13% of the pack use, down to a low of about 3%, and is now at about 6%. So that gives you an insight into where Tesla are setting the prioritisation. And they are the market leaders ...... Interestingly I don't see anyone else tracking these numbers in public apart from me. Presumably Lazards etc are all doing it in private, but I am not inclined to buy their reports.


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