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Storage stuff

PeterGray
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Re: Storage stuff

#333601

Postby PeterGray » August 16th, 2020, 12:56 pm

Not safe from a drill in my house - we have vine eyes screwed in all over the place for climbing plants!

Seems like an accident in waiting to me.

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Re: Storage stuff

#336048

Postby dspp » August 26th, 2020, 12:03 pm

"The U.S. Energy Storage Association (ESA) is aiming to have 100 GW of new energy storage deployed in the U.S. by the end of this decade, a goal that the association says will produce 200,000 new jobs by 2030.
Energy storage is "the next great chapter in a story of American energy innovation," Department of Energy (DOE) Deputy Secretary Mark Menezes said at the virtual ESA Energy Storage Annual Conference and Expo on Monday. The DOE is investing heavily in storage research and development, because of its possibilities for grid flexibility and reliability, as well as global competition to develop and deploy these technologies, he said.
ESA also put out a white paper outlining the path to that 100 GW goal, which includes policy support — like an investment tax credit for standalone storage facilities, as well as efforts to remove barriers to market participation."


* https://www.utilitydive.com/news/esa-ta ... 30/584058/
* https://energystorage.org/wp/wp-content ... Vision.pdf

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Re: Storage stuff

#340088

Postby dspp » September 13th, 2020, 10:34 pm

A bit breathless but not a bad summary of where TSLA are heading with storage.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/437396 ... :No|line:1

- dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#340592

Postby dspp » September 16th, 2020, 11:25 am

Solar+storage reliability puts gas plants at risk

The results are in from a new wind and solar study commissioned by California’s three big investor owned utilities. The main takeaway: solar paired with battery storage is just as reliable as conventional fossil fuel power plants when it comes to delivering power when the grid needs it most. These results could be the final nail in the coffin for California’s remaining gas peaker plants. The findings were the same in Arizona and New Mexico, which were also included in the study.

The purpose of the study was to determine the “effective load carrying capability” of various solar configurations and wind turbines, both with and without battery storage. Effective load carrying capability (ELCC) is a technical term for being there when you need it. It’s basically a calculation of the reliability of a resource represented as a percentage, so the higher the percentage the more likely a resource will be available at a given time. A perfect generation resource that is always fully available would have an ELCC of 100 percent.

Solar-alone didn’t fair so well. The analysis by Astrapé Consulting calculated solar ELCC values ranging from 4 to 5.8 percent in 2022. That’s very low. [BUT] Adding a bit of battery storage changes the ELCC numbers dramatically, particularly for solar.

In 2022, solar with single-axis tracking jumps from less than 6 percent to over 99 percent ELCC, that’s essentially 100 percent reliability. ... Based on these numbers, the utility-commissioned study effectively assigns the same high level of reliability to solar+storage that utilities and grid operators typically reserve for traditional power plants.

Storage also significantly improves the reliability of wind projects, though not to the same degree as solar. Pairing wind with a 4-hour battery system more than doubles wind ELCC values, to 62 percent in 2022 and 50 percent in 2030.....

The study gives a major boost to solar+storage developers looking to compete head-to-head with fossil-fuel resources, particularly California’s fleet of gas peaker plants – a process that’s already moving forward with battery projects both replacing existing peaker plants and derailing plans to build new ones. But there are still around 50 gas peakers currently operating across the state [of California]. The majority of the time these power plants are called upon they run for less than four hours. That makes them extremely vulnerable for replacement by batteries. .... There are over a thousand of them scattered around the country [USA]


https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/20 ... s-at-risk/

In the particular areas of study we are starting to see 'over-panelling' of solar projects, so say 600MW of panels but 400MW of inverter, coupled with 4h of battery storage. In other geographies with different wind/solar resource curves the optimal mix will be different, that used to be part of my job. But it is coming fast to the mainstream.

What we need to see is Tesla announce in battery day that they have a (?? Lithium Polymer ??) battery and sufficient capacity that allows them to seriously start ramping the Tesla Storage side of the business. At the moment they are cell capacity constrained and (quite correctly) prioritising the (Li-Ion) cells for automotive so as to get the best margins. All they need to do at present is to be the market leader (which they are), but I am keen for them to hit the "scale-quick" button quite aggressively now. If I remember correctly Tesla battery day is next week (https://www.drivingelectric.com/tesla/1 ... -september).

regards, dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#340846

Postby Nimrod103 » September 17th, 2020, 10:06 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:I am absolutely amazed at how fast the energy landscape is changing. Nobody would have predicted any of this even five years ago. Remarkable.

RVF


Yet in the last 3 days of almost no wind anywhere in the UK, there has been a significant electricity output from coal.

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Re: Storage stuff

#340861

Postby dspp » September 17th, 2020, 10:37 am

Nimrod103 wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:I am absolutely amazed at how fast the energy landscape is changing. Nobody would have predicted any of this even five years ago. Remarkable.

RVF


Yet in the last 3 days of almost no wind anywhere in the UK, there has been a significant electricity output from coal.


Not really.

Yesterday there was 0.5-1.1 GW of coal throughout the day, whereas wind was typically in the 3-5GW range, and solar typically 1-5GW.

I think you'll find that the coal that is on the bars is having to be run to keep it warm, keep it ticking over, and to slowly run down the coal stocks over the next 5-years. Reality is that yesterday it could have been switched off and CCGT gas taken the load (typically 16-18 GW yesterday) but that a minimum amount of coal was bidding below it just to keep the coal warmed through.

regards, dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#340876

Postby Nimrod103 » September 17th, 2020, 11:26 am

dspp wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:I am absolutely amazed at how fast the energy landscape is changing. Nobody would have predicted any of this even five years ago. Remarkable.

RVF


Yet in the last 3 days of almost no wind anywhere in the UK, there has been a significant electricity output from coal.


Not really.

Yesterday there was 0.5-1.1 GW of coal throughout the day, whereas wind was typically in the 3-5GW range, and solar typically 1-5GW.

I think you'll find that the coal that is on the bars is having to be run to keep it warm, keep it ticking over, and to slowly run down the coal stocks over the next 5-years. Reality is that yesterday it could have been switched off and CCGT gas taken the load (typically 16-18 GW yesterday) but that a minimum amount of coal was bidding below it just to keep the coal warmed through.

regards, dspp


Whether coal or gas, it doesn't matter. It wasn't wind.

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Re: Storage stuff

#340976

Postby dspp » September 17th, 2020, 3:29 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
dspp wrote:
Not really.

Yesterday there was 0.5-1.1 GW of coal throughout the day, whereas wind was typically in the 3-5GW range, and solar typically 1-5GW.

I think you'll find that the coal that is on the bars is having to be run to keep it warm, keep it ticking over, and to slowly run down the coal stocks over the next 5-years. Reality is that yesterday it could have been switched off and CCGT gas taken the load (typically 16-18 GW yesterday) but that a minimum amount of coal was bidding below it just to keep the coal warmed through.

regards, dspp


Whether coal or gas, it doesn't matter. It wasn't wind.

You have identified the final significant piece of jigsaw that is missing. Truly grid scale energy storage has really yet to arrive. Here, I am talking about Dinorwig scale and upwards. It has to happen. And soon. What technology will dominate this l am not sure. Maybe there won't be a single dominant energy storage solution that emerges. Per a mixture of technologies.

RVF


At the moment wind + solar are sized to supply about 1/3 of the UK's electricity. Right now UK grid is pulling 35GW of which wind+solar are 10GW, so that is running as one would expect. When - coming soon - wind + solar are built out to the 2/3 point then the same thing will happen, i.e. on a day like now it will be 20GW.

Complaining that we aren't there yet because we aren't, er, there yet, when in fact we are exactly where we expected to be at this time is not a good reason to change the destination on the journey.

Storage is indeed needed, and is coming. However at societal level there is significant value of delay in building out storage as it is performing well on the price decline curve. Therefore it makes a lot of sense to use that gas infrastructure now rather than prematurely deploying storage. To then suggest that because we are using gas now means that we must always use gas is to get the cart horse duo backwards.

If you want a storage play then the best one going right now is TSLA, or if you don't like them try CATL. There are two suggestions and I have given the scale etc logic on a number of occasions.

If you don't look at the evidence and the pathway then you will continue to make yesterday's investing/living decisions using yesterday's evidence & tools. Personally I am very happy with my TSLA share performance, up about 9x at the moment. Whether that will continue I am not so sure, which is why I am very focussed on the actual evidence.

regards, dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#341265

Postby dspp » September 18th, 2020, 7:14 pm

Tesla UK grid trading debut,

"Thanks to its Megapack batteries and its Autobidder platform, Tesla recently became the first party to trade flexible power in the UK’s Balancing Mechanism (BM), which uses the National Grid’s new control room API. This marked the first time that Tesla, which was able to acquire an energy generation license in June, was able to help balance supply and demand in Britain’s electricity market.

The facility that responded to the grid’s needs was comprised of six Tesla Megapack batteries that are capable of storing energy from renewable sources, which could then be utilized at times of peak consumption. The UK’s National Grid Electricity System Operator uses the BM to fine-tune supply and demand, and recently, a new computer system has allowed emerging technologies like batteries to be used in the balancing market easily, as noted in a Bloomberg report.

This new system has allowed facilities like the Tesla Megapack-powered 7.5 MW Holes Bay energy storage plant, located in Dorset and operated by Fotowatio Renewable Ventures BV and Harmony Energy Ltd, to help the country’s energy grid when needed. In its debut in the UK energy market, Tesla, using its Megapack batteries and Autobidder platform, successfully bid the Holes Bay battery into the BM — and it did so close to real-time. "


etc
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-megapac ... rid-debut/

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Re: Storage stuff

#341335

Postby dspp » September 19th, 2020, 10:48 am

Tesla Energy to become $200B revenue business, Piper analyst predicts
Piper's Alexander Potter expects Tesla's energy business eventually will ..... control more than a third of the market for stationary batteries.

"We anticipate sharply higher demand for these products, particularly in the late 2020s and 2030s as renewable energy grows toward 40% of electricity generation," the analyst writes.

Tesla Energy represented $1.5B in revenue for the company in FY 2019, which Potter predicts will hit $12.4B in 2023 and cross $200B by 2033.


https://seekingalpha.com/news/3615527-t ... ent=link-3

To put those numbers in perspective, here is a comparison with a Tesla scenario I ran:

2019; tot rev $25bn; energy rev $1.5bn; 6%
2023;tot rev $134bn; energy rev $12.4bn; 9%
2033; tot rev $2200bn; energy rev $200bn; 10%

I am unsure when the knee of the Tesla Energy curve will bend upwards as I am unsure when significant cell surpluses will become available for energy. The % amount being diverted into energy at the moment is sufficient to position Tesla as the leading storage player, and it makes sense to prioritise vehicles at present. The need for mass deployment of grid storage comes in the 2030-2040 period as that is when renewables will pass 65-85% in some key large territories and as a result CCGT will probably not be available/economic to serve as the grid stabilisation at that point. So arguably Tesla should throttle energy to about the 5-10% range until about 2030, or at least until Tesla reach 10mln vehicles/year (or equiv automobiles) in maybe 2027-2030.

But personally I think that Tesla already controls about 1/3 of the global cell supply that is suitable for automotive+stationary.

regards, dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#342220

Postby dspp » September 23rd, 2020, 12:38 pm

Tesla storage day, my notes copied across from Macro:

Best single list write up of detail here: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-5015502

My own big takeaways:

1. The product introduction roadmap remains on course and remains highly competitive;
2. The factory build programme remains on course, with confirmation that factories are now being sized for 1m cars/yr;
3. The cell supply programme is ramping commensurate with 20m cars/yr in 2030;
4. Plus the cell technology decline curve has been rebaselined in a way that likely obsoletes all competitors efforts and enables even more compelling products;
5. Plus raw material supply being assured;
6. Plus capex/GWh, space/GWh, and people/GWh are all being transformed downwards;
7. Plus the cell supply will now enable a 50/50 mix of vehicles/storage by 2030, though I am uncertain as to whether that is 50/50 in GWh (more likely), or revenue (less likely);
8; And probably about 1/3-2/3 of that future cell supply will now be internal to Tesla;
9. Plus I am very happy to watch the good top-team dynamics & competencies.

Adding this together it creates;

i. Hope for a more global energy rapid transition;
ii. Fear for the longevity of any dino-juice competitor that is not already with-it;
iii. Strategically this suggests they are now aiming for 20 factories by 2030, so if your country has not already booked a place on that map then your industry is toast;
iv. I will probably need to increase some of my valuations upwards to take account of the hoped for, but now confirmed, stationary storage volumes as well as the other stuff (autonomy etc).
v. I don't see anyone else, whether in vehicles or in storage, that has the scale and competency and resources and ambition to pose a threat at this time.

You can watch the presentation at https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/2020shareholdermeeting

==========
My own notes during the presentation itself in reverse time order

QA

cell mfg in berlin

thermal mge for homes is pet project ... hvac .....maybe start working next year ....yackety yack (i agree with him)

CyT volume unknown, 0.6m orders, maybe 250k-300k/yr, for USA spec not global superset spec, int version for others late in smaller form)

(Texas direct sales maybe ....)

50/50 grid/vehicle battery demand long term

model 2 @$25k tips into virtuous cycle in mass market

fundamental constraint is cells, that is why TSLA are (now) entering it and focussed on it, so if they overdo it then maybe other manufacturers can dine off their crumbs

LFP for medium range 300mile ought to become normal, copy the pattern

v2g requires a mains cutoff (no Manure sherlock, i.e. Tesla powerwall is hub control)

aiming to stay profitable but push hard on affordability (m2 @$25k etc)


$25k model 2

(the Golf killer, so ID 3 equiv ........ coming in 2022) (so VW whammed)

oh and fast S Plaid .........Lucid dead on blocks 520 mile range and faster ....... available end 2021

vs 20 mln vehicles/yr (? 2030)

55% capex reduction
35% floorspace reduction
==

54% range increase
56% $/kwh reduction
69% capex per gwh reduction

:)

bend that curve

good team dynamics :) :)

Function sharing battery / body

Nevada lithium mines R us


aim 100 GWh 2022>> 3TWH by 2030

Sparks equiv goes from 150 GWh to 1TWH

20GWh/yr per newbuild line

Kato Rd pilot is 10GWh

(some pilot, one year ramp)

prod plants 200 GWh/yr

confirmed 1m vehicles/yr per factory (at least for Shanghai, which is not a huge footprint)

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Re: Storage stuff

#342329

Postby 88V8 » September 23rd, 2020, 6:44 pm

dspp wrote:Tesla storage day.
fundamental constraint is cells....


Some remarkable promises being made on EV battery performance and recharge.
I wonder if the limiting factor will be the charging stations, no one will want to commit to a full rollout while batteries are evolving so fast.

https://newatlas.com/energy/skeleton-ki ... 9-92456261

V8

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Re: Storage stuff

#342503

Postby dspp » September 24th, 2020, 12:49 pm

It is becoming clearer as I read around that these are pack level costs.
- dspp

Image

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Re: Storage stuff

#342741

Postby dspp » September 25th, 2020, 11:47 am

Tesla battery day - supercut video in 16-min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK79ioB ... e=youtu.be

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Re: Storage stuff

#342837

Postby dspp » September 25th, 2020, 4:22 pm

Tesla battery day - collected slides
https://imgur.com/a/UyE5A1u
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Re: Storage stuff

#346634

Postby dspp » October 10th, 2020, 6:40 am

"EnergySage, an online comparison-shopping marketplace for rooftop solar and energy storage systems, has revealed something quite incredible. Despite Tesla Energy’s understated ramp, the Powerwall 2 has actually been dominating the United States’ residential battery storage market — and the competition is not even close. [>50%]
Tesla Energy’s domination is due in no small part to the Powerwall 2’s pricing, which makes it the least expensive storage option on a per-kWh stored basis. "


https://www.scribd.com/document/4793554 ... from_embed

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-powerwa ... ge-market/

- dspp

richfool
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Re: Storage stuff

#348925

Postby richfool » October 19th, 2020, 12:20 pm

I just came across this CNBC video on the "The Future of Energy Storage", which looks at different types of storage systems.

https://youtu.be/EoTVtB-cSps

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Re: Storage stuff

#350707

Postby dspp » October 26th, 2020, 11:11 am

"[USA] Utility-scale battery storage costs decreased nearly 70% between 2015 and 2018"

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45596

They show a capacity-weighted avge of $625/kWh installed for utility scale in 2018. Looks about right to me. The disconnect with the TSLA pack level cost (now, 2020) of $106 falling to $50 in 2025 is obvious. However at present a) BoS & softcosts are excessive in storage due to low volumes, and b) margins are currently maximised by putting constrained cell supply into vehicular applications. Over the next few years I expect some pretty significant changes in both factors. It looks obvious to me who will gain most from that :).

regards, dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#353735

Postby dspp » November 5th, 2020, 12:09 pm

"France’s Neoen SA will partner with Tesla Inc. to install one of the world’s biggest lithium-ion batteries in Australia after reaching a grid connection deal with the power market operator. The 300-megawatt Victorian Big Battery will be located in the southeastern city of Geelong and use Tesla’s Megapack technology. It will be double the size of Neoen’s Hornsdale site in South Australia, which was the largest facility when it began operation in 2017."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... =applenews

- dspp

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Re: Storage stuff

#354218

Postby 88V8 » November 6th, 2020, 7:49 pm

The Victorian Big Battery
More here
https://newatlas.com/victoria-big-batte ... b-92456261
I wonder if she would have been amused.

Ivor


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