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Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

Proselenes
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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#430624

Postby Proselenes » July 27th, 2021, 1:41 am

New Star Valley rig getting loaded to ship to Trinidad

Image

Proselenes
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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#431354

Postby Proselenes » July 30th, 2021, 7:44 am

Xavier did a presentation to the AAPG Young Professionals T&T yesterday, introducing Touchstone to them.

Quite interesting, nothing new but very interesting all the same.

https://scontent.fsub5-1.fna.fbcdn.net/ ... e=6107E045

Starts about 5 minutes in.......

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#432368

Postby Proselenes » August 4th, 2021, 1:23 am

Shorts update for TXP

July 2021 figures added. A small amount of short closing over July - as seen below and also from the share price rise of late.

TXP Stock on Loan (Shorts) from Euroclear (% borrowed from CREST holdings)

Jan 2021____0.52%
Feb 2021____1.23%
Mar 2021____7.14%
Apr 2021____8.65%
May 2021____8.79%
Jun 2021____8.74%
Jul 2021____8.49% (Loaned 8.792 million down from 9.032 million shares in June)

So still nearly 9 million shares shorted on London and still need to buy back and close.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#434240

Postby Proselenes » August 12th, 2021, 1:06 am

Coho-1 they commence laying pipe around 1st of September. So online before year end.

https://twitter.com/TouchstoneExp/statu ... 6778629125


.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#434475

Postby Proselenes » August 13th, 2021, 7:09 am

Two major headlines. Royston is ongoing and debt will be used.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/new ... e/15097240


Executed an amendment to our $20 million term loan facility agreement, extending the principal availability period from June 15, 2021 to December 31, 2021, thereby allowing us to access the outstanding $12.5 million available balance prior to the end of the year.

· Spudded our final Ortoire minimum exploration commitment well, Royston-1, on August 12, 2021.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#434676

Postby Proselenes » August 14th, 2021, 1:53 am

Comment from Malcy.

https://www.malcysblog.com/2021/08/oil- ... d-finally/

.......Touchstone has suffered unduly in ratings terms after an incredible start to its drilling campaign in the Ortoire Block in Trinidad. It was as if the market thought that they could go through an extensive drilling campaign without a dry hole although the total project has been an unqualified success. Whatever Royston brings you could double the share price back to the previous high and it would still be a cheap share.........

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#434707

Postby Proselenes » August 14th, 2021, 10:51 am

Below is a copy of my email to Paul Baay, the CEO, sent today.

To: Paul Baay
Cc: Stacey Gundersen

Dear Paul,

I hope you are well. The world is starting on the path back to normality, its not going to be quick but its underway now and hopefully it continues.

The progress being made continues to be good and I am very happy to see the news that Royston-1 has now spudded and the loan facility has been extended to be able to draw from it until year end.

Royston-1 is a very exciting drill and fingers crossed you can get into and through the 7bc right the way down to the sub-thrust. The 7bc being never drilled into in the past will offer a lot of excitement and potential upside, and so will a poke into the sub-thrust if the drill can make it that far.

To keep you updated (although I am sure you already are), the current large "short" position being held in London continues, this being around the 9 million shares level.

This is seen on Euroclear, being the number of shares loaned from CREST. There are discussions among shareholders about whether this is a short or a hedge, suffice to say that 9 million shares have been borrowed from CREST and someone is paying a recurring fee to borrow those shares, and has sold them into the market creating the share price weakness we see.

A few shareholders have contacted me (and between them and myself this represents a few million shares of Touchstone) and asked me to write to you to express their views, which I will so do below.

This email will likely be posted on public Bulletin Boards so therefore to not distract you or burden you with having to make a reply and to avoid questions of "did he reply" - please do not reply to this email. Its not trying to teach you to suck eggs, its purely some shareholders wanting their voice heard, and asking me to do so in an email.

Their concerns are regarding this "short" position and how, whoever is behind it, may be going to try to influence the board of Touchstone, directly or indirectly via whatever influence, to accept a dilutive placing ahead with the excuse being "fast tracking 2022 exploration (and/or Royston development)".

Whilst I remain confident that Touchstone can progress to Cascadura production being on line without the need for any further dilution by issuing new shares, they have raised their concerns and so wanted these concerns aired to you, therefore I am passing this on.

The company currently has a debt facility of 20 million dollars, and there has been some talk, rightly or wrongly, that this may be extended up to 50 million US dollars, or indeed a new facility may be utilized.

Touchstone now has the 2020 year end reserves report with which to take on additional debt funding and the expectation is that a new upgraded reserves report including Cascadura-Deep-1 for the first time will be coming for 2021 year end reserves report. Pending any Rosyton-1 success this may also include Royston for the first time and on top of that, there may be more oil moved into 1P status following the 4 pending wells in the South West and any positive results from the pressure testing at Chinook-1 will add a little Cruse gas as well, not to be sniffed at, literally.

With a new improved reserves report at the end of 2021, enhanced debt funding seems the obvious non-dilutive way of advancing in 2022 until Cascadura is online and throwing off cash.

So, given the companies current proven reserves and with Cascadura production due to significantly increase the companies incoming cash flow not too long in the future, they would like to express their desire that the board of Touchstone consider the following points:

1/ Exploration be pushed back until after Cascadura is online and generating significant revenues, to H2 2022 if necessary. You cannot lose value by delaying, you can lose value by diluting and then failing with exploration spend. Therefore all focus should be on getting Cascadura online while minimizing other exploration related expenditure to avoid any unnecessary equity dilution. There is no value creation in "fast tracking" exploration. The oil or gas will remain there to be discovered, whether you drill it in March 2022 or December 2022. Its going nowhere if its there, it can wait.

2/ RBL or similar debt facility (or enhanced facility) to be put in place in Q1 2022, as and if required, to fund any development drilling and development requirements until Cascadura is online and generating those significant revenues. Can the 20 million loan facility be extended to 50 million ? With a new 2021 upgraded year end reserves report can a new 50 million facility be put in place where part of it pays back the current 20 million facility and the remainder is used to fund Royston surface facilities (if needed in the success case) and also a couple of Cascadura development wells in H1 2022 ?

3/ That the board please avoid any temptation to issue shares for cash after any Royston success, when no doubt there may be lots of people "knocking on the door" trying to offer money for new shares. Particularly someone who must get hold of 9 million shares to return them to CREST having borrowed them.

At this juncture in the companies development there is a major cashflow generative development due to be online late in H1 2022 in Cascadura, or as some people jokingly say "CashCowdura". To issue shares to fast track exploration is not creating value and would dilute value in the short term. All future exploration should wait until Cascadura is online and then be generated from cashflow. Any requirement for Royston development (eg surface facilities) again should be funded via debt.


As I said earlier, this is just their thoughts and opinions that they wanted passed on, and so I have done so.

My only personal comment would be that the current share price weakness being seen is in my view completely related to the lack of clarity on future funding given the ongoing delays and further delays to Coho and Cascadura. The short position is obviously suppressing the price and it becomes a "downwards spiral" as people will sell due to a low weak share price, which in turn creates even more weakness, creating even more selling, allowing the share price to be manipulated downwards and held low. Confidence is currently shot and that short position is making sure, at the moment, no confidence can be rebuilt. A new or enhanced credit line announced in 2022 will make everyone "breath" and be confident there is no discounted placing ahead to get cheap shares from.

On another note one thing that will not sit well with people, following Chinook, is any delay to flow testing in the event of any discovery at Royston. One hopes that testing equipment has been reserved and in the event of any success there will be an immediate move to flow testing without any delay.


Fingers crossed for Royston success ahead and stay safe and thank you for your time in reading this. Keep up the good work.

All the very best,
&&&&

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#436952

Postby Proselenes » August 24th, 2021, 12:28 am

A good interview with Paul. Youtube link below :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZ_pwDvAp70


Looking good if Cascadura can be online by April 2022, thats massive cashflow coming in and opens the door to take on new debt in Q2 2022 to fund development of Cascadura and Royston (in the success case for Royston). Which allows cash from operations to fund phase 2 exploration in H2 2022 (thats Guabine, Steelhead, Bass and Krakken).

Some talk around of a further 2 wells (on top of the planned 4) in the South West oilfields, which would be possible if Coho is on line by December this year.

No equity dilution, thats a big bonus that they are fully funded and planned until Cascadura is online.

The boot now swings on to the other foot. Someone has borrowed 9 million shares from CREST, is paying to borrow them and sold them. They, at some point, have to buy them back and hand those shares back to CREST.

The share price should be around circa 150p at the moment based on the proven reserves and resources only......excluding the potential up to 2000p upside from the over 20 Ortoire prospects that will be drilled in the coming 5 years. Its down where it is thanks to whoever borrowed those 9 millions shares from CREST and sold them, but they do have to buy them back and return to CREST......that will be fun.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#437059

Postby spasmodicus » August 24th, 2021, 12:17 pm

Proselenes wrote:
No equity dilution, thats a big bonus that they are fully funded and planned until Cascadura is online.

The boot now swings on to the other foot. Someone has borrowed 9 million shares from CREST, is paying to borrow them and sold them. They, at some point, have to buy them back and hand those shares back to CREST.

The share price should be around circa 150p at the moment based on the proven reserves and resources only......excluding the potential up to 2000p upside from the over 20 Ortoire prospects that will be drilled in the coming 5 years. Its down where it is thanks to whoever borrowed those 9 millions shares from CREST and sold them, but they do have to buy them back and return to CREST......that will be fun.


I agree, the SP should be 150p on pre pandemic metrics for oil and gas reserves and production, but I am not sure how much the current SP is affected by the shorting and how much by more general aversion to fossil fuels. Most oil producing companies are spinning off cash like nobody's business at the moment, but share prices across the industry remain suppressed. Oil and gas shares are deeply unpopular (imo) due to covid demand suppression, climate change panic, and over optimism about the development of renewables etc.

This should represent an opportunity for contrarian investors but, so far, this has not come to pass. Hang in there.

S

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#439367

Postby Proselenes » September 3rd, 2021, 3:44 am

Shorts update for TXP

August 2021 figures added. A small increase in the actual short level (percentage down as more stock on CREST). Price being suppressed is ongoing.

TXP Stock on Loan (Shorts) from Euroclear (% borrowed from CREST holdings)

Jan 2021____0.52%
Feb 2021____1.23%
Mar 2021____7.14%
Apr 2021____8.65%
May 2021____8.79%
Jun 2021____8.74%
Jul 2021____8.49%
Aug 2021____8.45% (Loaned 8.819 million up from 8.792 million in July)

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#440528

Postby Proselenes » September 8th, 2021, 9:21 am

If anyone has not read the TXP MDA for Q2/H1 (13th August release), the PDF file is on the link below. Some extra snippets of info are in there.

https://gofile.io/d/mgZRd9

.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#441552

Postby Proselenes » September 12th, 2021, 2:11 am

Confirmation of the boost to the target price given to TXP recently by Canaccord.

Upgraded price target now 160p. And if Royston strikes and flows, that will be upgraded again considerably.

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/LON/TXP/price-target/


In simple terms, add 50p to the share price for each 250BCF of gas potential (if any) from Royston. If it looks like it could deliver an upper estimate of 1TCF - thats 200p on the share price. And if it delivers a duster, expect a kick in the teeth until Cascaudra comes on line Q2 2022 and the share price moves to 150p then as the wall of cash coming in from Cascadura production starts.

For me, fair value at present is 150p (based on the proven and verified reserves) and so any incremental value from any discovery at Royston adds on top of that current proven 150p of reserves.

The 160p target of Canaccord is quite fair imo based on the current situation, current proven and verified reserves with 10p on top of the 150p basic.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#443205

Postby Proselenes » September 17th, 2021, 11:54 pm

Video link below to the presentation CEO Paul Baay just did at the AAPG E&P Summit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jvd8aCB ... xploration


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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#444898

Postby Proselenes » September 24th, 2021, 7:11 am

Massive Royston discovery !

Double expectations !!

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/new ... s/15147498

,

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#445040

Postby Proselenes » September 24th, 2021, 1:55 pm

Drilling at least one well to 10,000 feet was the final obligation under the license terms. And its completed with well number 5.

This is great news as TXP are probably the only company recently to now fulfill all obligations of the license.

However, this might also be bad news. With so many discoveries and a clean license - sadly, TXP now could be subject to a low ball takeover bid.

When I say lowball, I mean 200p to 275p per share offer.

And that would be lowball, considering that Cascadura is a monster and will deliver massive cash flow from when its online later in H1 2022. Royston is a monster and with so many targets now derisked (including the monster that is Krakken) - its now a sitting duck for some nasty people to take it out cheap before us shareholders get rewarded with the "Wall of Cash" coming in from when Cascadura is online and then relentless drilling on more and more massive exploration targets.

It really is no joke that if Royston flows and then phase 2 exploration including Krakken get some success, this could be 1000p a share plus plus plus in 24 months. While a lot could go wrong, it could also go right and then some.

And that is why, while the big boys might not be interested, some savvy people with cash to burn might try to steal TXP away from us shareholders with a lowball bid between now and when Cascadura comes online.

And a 200p to 275p bid in the coming months post a successful Royston flow test, would be taking the pee, and certainly I would reject it completely.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#445178

Postby Proselenes » September 25th, 2021, 7:22 am

Malcys update:


https://www.malcysblog.com/2021/09/oil- ... d-finally/


........Touchstone Exploration

Touchstone reports that the Company has completed drilling the Royston-1 exploration well and has announced that the well encountered ‘substantial hydrocarbon accumulations based on drilling and wireline log data’.

Royston-1 was drilled to a total depth of 10,700 feet and is the deepest exploration well drilled by Touchstone to date, mud logging and wireline logs indicate hydrocarbon accumulations in the Lower Cruse, Karamat and Herrera sections.

The well encountered a total Herrera turbidite thickness of 1,014 feet (609 feet net sand) in two stacked thrust sheets. An aggregate 393 gross feet of hydrocarbon pay was identified in two unique thrust sheets in the Herrera sands from 9,700 feet to total depth, with wireline logs indicating that the well was in hydrocarbon pay at total depth.

The well is currently being cased and prepared for production testing of the Herrera Formation.

Paul Baay, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented:

“The Royston-1 well was the fifth and final well of the first phase of our exploration drilling program on the Ortoire block, with logging data indicating better than expected results. The amount of identified hydrocarbon pay further verifies the opportunity in the block for our future phase two exploration program. Prior to drilling, we targeted 200 feet of gross sand pay, with results almost doubling our expectations. The team has commenced planning production testing operations in the Herrera Formation using the same equipment that verified the Cascadura discovery. I would also like to commend the team for drilling the well safely and in adherence to all health protocols. With the assistance of the new seismic and upcoming production testing data, we anticipate this to be the largest geological structure identified on the block in the Herrera Formation.”

This looks like a very decent well despite the lower porosity, which incidentally is like other wells in the programme and not markedly different to when Shell was producing. The pay was nearly double the expectations and the whole Ortoire area looks fit for further drilling and has so far more than matched expectations. I don’t normally quote more than one company executive but I think that COO James Shipka provides really important data here as the company look to identify the second exploration phase.

Readers know that I am a big fan of Touchstone whose value is way above the current price even after today’s run up.........

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#445179

Postby Proselenes » September 25th, 2021, 7:25 am

Interview with the CEO after Rpyston results ;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0s60WW ... =Proactive

.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#446820

Postby Proselenes » October 1st, 2021, 3:28 am

Good news that the 2021 onshore license nominations and process is now open. The sooner this is done and TXP are awarded whatever they want to win, the sooner that a Deep Well at a Herrera prospect in the South West oil fields can be planned for and carried out.

Currently until the onshore license bid round is done and dusted and completed and awarded, no deep wells will be planned in the South West to avoid giving a competitive advantage to other companies to bid against TXP.

https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/trin ... hore-round

.

The map of the areas is here :

https://www.energy.gov.tt/wp-content/up ... on-Map.pdf

I am sure TXP will be interested in Guayaguayare (next door to Ortoire) and also perhaps the South West Peninsula areas.

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#447919

Postby Proselenes » October 5th, 2021, 1:07 am

Shorts update for TXP

September 2021 figures added.

A tiny decrease in the actual short level (percentage down as more stock on CREST). Price being suppressed is ongoing.

TXP Stock on Loan (Shorts) from Euroclear (% borrowed from CREST holdings)

Jan 2021____0.52%
Feb 2021____1.23%
Mar 2021____7.14%
Apr 2021____8.65%
May 2021____8.79%
Jun 2021____8.74%
Jul 2021____8.49%
Aug 2021____8.45%
Sep 2021......8.39% (Loaned 8.808 million down from 8.819 million in August)

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Re: Touchstone Exploration ( TXP )

#448430

Postby Proselenes » October 7th, 2021, 12:38 am



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