The Lemon Fool

https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis ... -well.html

The upcoming and highly anticipated Gazania-1 well has the potential to create significant value for both investors and South Africa

28 June 2022 Analene Enslin Erik Meyer

The Gazania-1 new-field wildcat is targeting the up-dip extension of the proven 1988 Soeker oil-bearing A-J 1 discovery, located within the Orange Sub-basin. The discovery well encountered lacustrine sandstones with fair reservoir quality, exhibiting porosities between 10-15%. Although deemed sub-commercial, A-J 1 proved the presence of a working oil-prone hydrocarbon system within the A-J graben, significantly de-risking the Gazania prospect and the overlying Namaqualand prospect.

Upside potential to the Gazania prospect is found in an overlying, separate package of fluvial-deltaic sandstones of the Namaqualand prospect. Both prospects rely on an updip trapping geometry where the sandstones pinch-.......................

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Interview with Gil

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/co ... =TwitterUK

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAgc9Tc45LU

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A new audio interview with Gil.

https://www.alignresearch.co.uk/eco-atl ... c-oil-gas/

Dr. Michael Green, resources analyst at Align Research, interviews Gil Holzman, CEO of Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas

Key questions posed:

1 – Matters have been active at ECO in recent weeks, talk us through the rationale behind the JHI deal cancellation and the new cash raise announced on Monday

2 – You seem to have landed fantastic exposure re the Namibian and SA fields given recent finds by majors – what CoS do you put on the upcoming Gazania drill?

3 – Why do you think despite the plethora of broker notes highlighting the undervaluation of ECO that the shares continue to trade at a derisory level?

4 – What are plans offshore Guyana for 2022/23 given it is near 3 years now since the “heavy oil” announcement? Why is it not profitable to develop and pump given current oil prices?

5 – How do you see the news landscape for shareholders panning out during the balance of 2022?

6 – What is the endgame for ECO shareholders on an 18 month – 2 year view?

There are rumours that the recent increase in the 3B/4B license area is because a Major Oil Company wants to farm in. So there is repositioning going on, before a farm out occurs which is rumoured will result in a free carry for 2 exploration wells in 2023.

So ECO increasing, then it will decrease again as part of the farm out and ECO get 2 free carries on 3B/4B drilling when a major farms in.

Lets hope this rumour is true.....wait a few months and see. The license area's they have are "hot property" and big boys with big bucks to spend are wanting exposure.

Stock on Loan (Short) history.

Jan 2022 Zero

Feb 2022 Zero

Mar 2022 1.53 million

Apr 2022 2.35 million

May 2022 3.86 million.


So there is a lot of shorting of ECO ongoing....... as stated by Gil in the recent audio interview.


Canada short position of ECO (EOG) is currently 945K shares short.

So between London and Canada there is a near 5 million share short position.

Decent buying in Canada overnight. Plus 18%

Perfect storm if we get volume.......large shorts still in place, big drill coming up.........spud just 8 weeks away.......

Short squeeze time.........

Some Guyana news should be this month.... Beebei-1 drill results. A successful well would give some good sentiment effects for all Guyana players.

https://guyanatimesgy.com/repsol-starts ... re-guyana/

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https://www.geoexpro.com/articles/2022/ ... -oil-giant

The Orange Basin - An Underexplored Oil Giant?
The recent Venus and Graff oil discoveries have renewed interest in the prospectivity of the Orange Basin, offshore Namibia and South Africa. These two new proven plays calibrate the deepwater source rock story and help guide the identification of analogues along the margin with equivalent reservoir, traps, and charge scenarios.

Below: Regional collapse structure of Late Cretaceous overburden containing Cenomanian/Santonian reservoirs, detached on Cenom ........................

Exciting times ahead with 2 wells due to spud soon.

#I3E/#EOG spudding Serenity in around 6 to 8 weeks time @i3energy
Appraisal well.

#ECO spudding Gazania-1 in around 6 to 8 weeks time @EcoAtlantic_OG
Big Explo well.

Hopefully both spud early September #oil #oilandgas #OOTT

Rig is now drilling its final North Sea well before moving to South Africa to drill Gazania-1 for ECO

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/island- ... -next-gig/

Island Drilling’s rig gets started on its next gig

July 18, 2022, by Melisa Cavcic

Norwegian offshore drilling company Island Drilling has completed its work with Dana Petroleum on the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) and moved to its next assignment in the UK North Sea prior to moving to South Africa and Mauritania for the next jobs on its list.

Island Drilling informed last week that its Island Innovator rig finalised the BP7 well for Dana Petroleum – awarded in October 2021 – and has already started drilling on the Orlando field on behalf of Tailwind Energy thanks to a deal, which was secured in December 2021.

“The good HSE performance and low levels of rig and operations non-productive time was particularly recognised as impressive by Dana Petroleum,” explained the company in its statement.

The 2012-built sixth-generation harsh environment semi-submersible drilling rig also installed a completion and a subsea tree by use of the heave compensated crane, based on the firm’s statement. Island Drilling further elaborated that the use of the crane for installing the subsea tree “reduced the installation time by almost four days.”

“The Island Drilling company appreciate the cooperation with both Dana Petroleum Limited and Petrofac on the operation,” added the firm.

Moreover, the drilling company confirmed that once the work on the Orlando field, block 3/3b-13y, is finalised, the Island Innovator rig will prepare to sail towards South Africa, where it will start drilling the Gazania-1 well for Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas. This well is located in the Orange Basin in South Africa and the deal for this assignment was disclosed in March 2022...................................

Gazania-1 spudding in 5 to 7 weeks time - Orange Basin - here we go.....


https://www.upstreamonline.com/explorat ... -1-1263141

South Africa could host 291 Tcf of gas and 27 billion barrels of oil — government official

Petroleum Agency executive touts nation’s huge hydrocarbon onshore and offshore potential

20 July 2022 8:06 GMT Updated 20 July 2022 12:28 GMT
By Iain Esau in London

South Africa’s total prospective hydrocarbon resources amount to 291 trillion cubic feet of gas and 27 billion barrels of oil, according to the latest estimates from the country’s upstream regulator................

.............The promising Orange basin offshore the west coast could house 22 Tcf of gas and 16 billion barrels of oil, while the potential offshore the east coast could be 8 Tcf of gas and 2 billion barrels of oil................

Interesting article. I am hoping ECO will soon pull off a deal where they get free carried for 2 exploration wells Namibia/South Africa.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-07-22/

Analysis: Ukraine war rekindles Europe's demand for African oil and gas

July 22, 20224:09 PM GMT+7

Potential for African projects costing up to $100 bln
Namibia oil discoveries could generate 500,000 bpd
Oil majors' steps dovetail with push by European governments
Africa sees golden chance to tap assets amid energy transition

BRUSSELS/LONDON/CAPE TOWN, July 22 (Reuters) - Europe's thirst for oil and gas to replace sanctioned Russian supply is reviving interest in African energy projects that were shunned due to costs and climate change concerns, industry executives and African officials said.

Energy firms are considering projects worth a total of $100 billion on the continent, according to Reuters calculations based on public and private company estimates.

African countries that currently have little or no oil and gas output could see billions in energy investments in the coming years, including Namibia, South Africa, Uganda, Kenya, Mozambique and Tanz..............................

https://www.alignresearch.co.uk/eco-atl ... scoveries/


..........There is no doubt that Eco is exploring for oil and gas in some global hotspots of todays’ hydrocarbon world – offshore Namibia and offshore South Africa, along with offshore Guyana. In January 2022 we updated our research coverage on Eco with a Conviction Buy stance and a target price of 114.65p, when the stock was trading at 23.75p. To put it mildly, there looks as though there is potentially a lot of excitement to be generated in this stock over the coming months and we are more than happy to conform our stance at the current price of 26.70p..........

Only around 4 to 5 weeks to spud of Gazania-1.

Success case, worth over 200p a share.

Failure case, we still have Namibia and Guyana and more South Africa.....but of a no brainer.

Short term news :

Rig released from North Sea and moving to South Africa.

Spud of Gazania-1 - potential 10 bagger well in success case.

Potential news of the drilling targets offshore Guyana for H1 2023

Potential farm in deal for Namibia/South Africa which may result in ECO getting 2 free carries on exploration wells.

Also area related news - more nearby wells being drilled in Guyana currently and also soon Namibia - so lots of related news ahead.


Latest Canadian shorts data :

1.26 million shares short.


Latest UK shorts data :

3.517 million share short.


So ECO is well shorted - as was noted by Gil in the recent interview ( https://www.alignresearch.co.uk/eco-atl ... c-oil-gas/ )

Whoever is shorting appears to have been recently trying to keep a lid on the price, however with money returning to the AIM market now, they are not having the same success.......and if they capitulate and start to close their short....the share price will zoom.

Gil reckons the share price should double before Gazania-1 drilling, I agree, if the shorts close, the share price could easily double.

At 95$ a barrel minimum size for a commercial discovery at Gazania-1 would be just 30 million barrels recoverable.

If we go to best case discovery of say 300 million barrels recoverable then at 95$ a barrel the NPV is around 3.2 Billion dollars of which 50% is ECO.

Even at a conservative oil price estimate of $65/bbl a discovery in the region of 300 MMbbls is expected to have an NPV of 1.6 billion.

Its easy to see why Gil refers to Gazania-1 as a potential "ten bagger" for ECO if it comes in good in this recent interview ( https://www.alignresearch.co.uk/eco-atl ... c-oil-gas/ )

Cape Town's Astron refinery is due to restart in Q4 2022, and this would be where any produced oil would be sent - so all is perfect timing for a discovery then quick development.

Gazania-1 well appears to consist of 2 seperate targets :

Lower Gazania target - estimated around 122 million barrels recoverable.

Upper Namaqualand target - estimated around 228 million barrels recoverable.

Total being potential 350 million recoverable and either would be commercial in the absence of the other.

Realisiticaly here you would want around 70 million barrels to be assured it would be commercially developed, so if the lower target comes in and the upper not, still commercial.


With ECO having a current market cap below 100 million US$, there really is one massive potential upside ahead, just for Gazania-1. And then on top of that you have Guyana and Namibia, with Guyana drilling expected to be H1 2023 (news on targets soon) and potentially deals to be done in the Orange Basin......with ECO potentially getting a free carry from a Major for 2 exploration wells to be drilled in 2023 in a farm out deal is a rumour that floated around.

All imo, DYOR !

Will have to keep an eye out in case Gil does an interview.


https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-mar ... re-2732402

Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas’ Holzman 'very positive' about future

Stock Markets 4 hours ago (Aug 01, 2022 04:45)

Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd (AIM:ECO, TSX-V:EOG) chief executive Gil Holzman told investors the company remains “very positive about what the future holds” as the explorer released its financial results statement for the 12 months ended 31 March 2022.

It comes as the company has broadened and diversified its portfolio, picking up assets offshore South Africa whilst its acreage offshore Guyana benefits from the advancement of third-party owned and operated projects nearby.

"The past 12 months have seen us make considerable progress as a business, increasing our geographic footprint and overall acreage considerably, growing the company in some of the most active and exciting oil and gas exploration regions on the globe,” Holzman said.

“This, combined with the improved commodity price conditions, means that interest in exploration activity in the areas where Eco has strategically important acr....................................

https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/08/oil- ... d-finally/

..........This is a detailed and highly positive report from Eco Atlantic who have had a very busy time in the period but are also scheduled to be even more busy in the next few months. The Azinan acquisition has opened up the imminent drilling of the Gazania well on Block 2/B offshore South Africa whilst adding to the stake at Block 3B/4B in the Orange Basin looks very exciting to me.

Following quitting the JHI deal after unsatisfactory lock-up provisions were proposed, Eco still have two potential prospects in Guyana where Exxon announced further discoveries last week but Africa seems to be the area of most focus in the south as well as in Namibia.

Eco is another stock where the upside potential dwarfs the current share price, not least near Venus and Graff where I have already talked about further wells from Total and Shell are tight but would propel the post codes into a different stratosphere should the be more big discoveries. A must have for the beta end of the portfolio and the good news is that the action is not very far away...............

Link below to the MDA for the latest results.

https://docs.publicnow.com/viewDoc?hash ... B8312CFDAF

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https://oilnow.gy/featured/100m-barrel- ... oek-block/

100M-barrel Jethro well could be Guyana’s first oil production project outside Stabroek Block

By OilNOW
August 2, 2022

The fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in a spike in oil prices. Now, the Orinduik Block partners – Eco Atlantic, Tullow Oil, TotalEnergies and Qatar Energy – plan to revisit the commercialisation potential of the Jethro discovery.

Two tertiary discoveries were made at the Orinduik Block in 2019 at the Jethro and Joe wells, both heavy oil finds. Jethro, in particular, had encountered 55 metres of net oil pay. Tullow’s Chief Executive, Paul McDade had told S&P Global Platts that the Joint Venture (JV) is “confident of the commercial value” of the project, even as a standalone development, but a develo.......................................

https://guyanatimesgy.com/after-33-oil- ... me-expert/

Stabroek Block one of the most prolific of all time – expert
August 4, 2022


..........According to Parker, Exxon’s level of success in the Stabroek block has not yet been replicated by Exxon and other oil companies in other blocks in Guyana’s waters. He noted that of the four oil discoveries outside Stabroek, only one has commercial potential… although there has been talk by the Orinduik partners of revisiting one of the wells, Jethro, and its commercial viability............