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Hydrogen matters

scrumpyjack
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Re: Hydrogen matters

#435431

Postby scrumpyjack » August 17th, 2021, 4:20 pm

I thought the idea of having the wind generators using electricity for hydrogen production was that it would be when the grid didn't need it and might be having to pay them not to produce electricity? In that event the electricity is effectively free.

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Re: Hydrogen matters

#435432

Postby Hallucigenia » August 17th, 2021, 4:23 pm

BEIS have launched their UK Hydrogen Strategy :
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... n-strategy

Seems fairly sensible on the face of it - and not before time, hydrogen becomes a lot more important when your target is net zero rather than an x% reduction in total emissions.

Some of the comms around it is weird - trumpeting about 3m homes heating with hydrogen by 2030, when the document actually says a decision on blending will be taken in 2023 and on full heating in 2026, with the possibility of a town-size trial by 2030 - enough to get a good idea of the real-world economics without going too far down what will probably be a dead-end.

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Re: Hydrogen matters

#435440

Postby Hallucigenia » August 17th, 2021, 4:44 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:I thought the idea of having the wind generators using electricity for hydrogen production was that it would be when the grid didn't need it and might be having to pay them not to produce electricity? In that event the electricity is effectively free.


The question is not so much about the generating hydrogen bit - today's strategy calls for hydrogen production on the same scale as current UK electricity production - but what you do with it.

Things like heating are probably going to be relatively minor uses for hydrogen (with the caveat that there's some big binary decisions coming in 2023 and 2026 on blending and 100% heating in the UK), but a lot of hydrogen will be needed for industrial processes which don't have many good alternatives. See Michael Liebreich's ladder of hydrogen priorities :
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Re: Hydrogen matters

#436176

Postby 88V8 » August 20th, 2021, 10:17 am

Hallucigenia wrote:....a lot of hydrogen will be needed for industrial processes which don't have many good alternatives. See Michael Liebreich's ladder of hydrogen priorities ...

Report from that unbiased source the Graunaid

Oil companies have used false claims over the cost of producing fossil fuel hydrogen to win over the Treasury and access billions in taxpayer subsidies, according to the outgoing hydrogen lobby boss.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/20/oil-firms-made-false-claims-on-blue-hydrogen-costs-says-ex-lobby-boss
“I believe passionately that I would be betraying future generations by remaining silent on that fact that blue hydrogen is at best an expensive distraction, and at worst a lock-in for continued fossil fuel use that guarantees we will fail to meet our decarbonisation goals”

To be continued, no doubt.

Meanwhile if you want a hydrogen punt, more steam behind ITM Power (ITM)

Citi analysts kept their recommendation for shares of ITM Power at 'buy/high risk' after its joint-venture partner, Linde, inked a deal for the British company's technology with chipmaker Infineon.
Citi said the move further opened up a "potentially significant" end market for green hydrogen in general and for PEM electrolyser technology in particular.
The agreement also "positively affirmed" the JV with Linde, "creating further opportunities for ITM with large, credible industry leaders such as Infineon."
Under the terms of the deal, Linde would build a 2MW electrolyser plant using ITM's technology at Infineon's Villach site in Austria.

Source... ADVFN

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Re: Hydrogen matters

#436197

Postby Hallucigenia » August 20th, 2021, 11:26 am

88V8 wrote:Report from that unbiased source the Graunaid


You can't shoot the messenger when they're making direct quotes from the now ex-head of the UK H2 & Fuel Cell Association (and boss of Protium, who project-manage hydrogen projects).

It's a complicated mix of engineering, finance, project management etc with no clearcut answers, but given that blue hydrogen will need subsidies out to at least 2030 and the rapid rollout of renewables, he's probably right that you might as well just use grey hydrogen as the bridge and then go straight to green.

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Re: Hydrogen matters

#436414

Postby 88V8 » August 21st, 2021, 11:01 am

88V8 wrote:...ITM Power...
They are also involved in the UK pilot of feeding hydrogen into the gas mains in a town in the northeast. The feed is 20% which is near the maximum that can be burned in a standard gas appliance.
https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-tra ... -1-1045075

Well, it happened and presumably is still happening.
Effective 4th August.
Times (print) the residents did not know that on Wednesday they became guinea pigs... the company said the residents would not have noticed any difference and did not tell them when the the trial was starting in part out of fear that it would be blamed for any boiler problems. The feed began at 2% and will increase over the coming days to 20%.

If no one is blown up, it will no doubt be declared a success and repeated elsewhere at 20%.
For sure, no one is going to replace the existing gas pipe network, let alone start repiping customers' homes or for that matter replacing their appliances, so we would need to use the existing hardware.
I think quite a lot hangs on this:
The notion that we can go all-electric for heating and HW, and at the same time power a fleet of new EVs, is just fanciful.
So if you hear nothing over the next few weeks about explosions in Newcastle, no news is good news.

I suppose I'll have a dabble with ITM, just a nibble.

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Re: Hydrogen matters

#532784

Postby Hallucigenia » September 27th, 2022, 5:06 pm

Jan Rosenow, special advisor to the House of Commons committee on decarbonizing heat in homes, has a peer-reviewed review of all the evidence he can find from "independent" sources :
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 5122004160

The evidence assessment shows that the widespread use of hydrogen for heating is not supported by any of the 32 studies identified in this review. Instead, existing independent research so far suggests that, compared to other alternatives such as heat pumps, solar thermal, and district heating, hydrogen use for domestic heating is less economic, less efficient, more resource intensive, and associated with larger environmental impacts...

First, hydrogen for heating is associated with higher energy system costs compared to alternative technologies that deliver decarbonized space and hot water heating such as heat pumps, district heating, and solar thermal.8 Much of this is driven by the higher electricity needs for green hydrogen compared to electrification via heat pumps.

Second, hydrogen for heating results in higher consumer heating costs (including the upfront and running costs of heating systems).11 There are uncertainties about the extent that costs will change over time and how that will impact consumer costs, but the evidence identified suggests that heating with hydrogen will be more expensive for consumers.

Finally, hydrogen for heating leads to higher environmental impacts, necessitates more energy supply infrastructure, uses more resources, and requires more land.10 However, the REA only identified one environmental impact assessment of hydrogen versus alternative technologies for heating. Further research in this category would be useful to expand the evidence base beyond a single study.

A critical issue driving the aforementioned observations is the inefficiency of hydrogen production and consumption. Electrolysis efficiencies are around 80%, and average boiler efficiencies of 85% are typical resulting in an overall efficiency of hydrogen heating of 70%.8 A heat pump uses one unit of electricity and generates about three to four units of heat.12 Because of these efficiencies, it takes about five times more electricity to heat a home with hydrogen than it takes to heat the same home with an efficient heat pump, either individually or as part of a district heating network.

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Re: Hydrogen matters

#538598

Postby Hallucigenia » October 18th, 2022, 2:50 pm

The Shell/ITM JV close down their hydrogen filling stations in the UK :

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transpo ... -1-1335049

Shell said the decision to close its H2 facilities at Gatwick Airport, Cobham and Beaconsfield was taken in conjunction with their operator, Motive — owned by UK electrolyser maker ITM Power — which supplies all its pumps with green hydrogen....H2 filling stations — which each cost at least $2m to build, according to the Hydrogen Fuel Cell Partnership — are undoubtedly operated at a loss in the UK due to the lack of hydrogen-powered vehicles on the country’s roads.
But Shell tells Hydrogen Insight that the H2 pumps were closed because “they were our first generation of prototype sites, and the technology on them had reached its end of life”.
It added: “The focus for Shell in the UK is to see where there are opportunities to build multi-modal hubs for heavy-duty trucks, similar to a model we have built in California.”


And Michael Liebreich has been on form, with a great keynote speech to the World Hydrogen Congress :
https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/analysi ... -1-1334006
You can cut your hair with a Swiss Army knife and you can prune your trees with a Swiss Army knife, and you can replace a tyre on your great Dutch bicycle with a Swiss Army knife, but you don’t. And the reason you don’t is because there’s always something cheaper, safer and easier to use...

94 million tonnes of grey and black hydrogen made from unabated natural gas and coal — the “bad stuff”, as he put it — were produced each year, emitting 830 million tonnes of carbon, and that these figures were still rising.
“Before we position hydrogen as the solution to climate change, we first have to deal with hydrogen as a problem in climate change,” he explained.
Just replacing this dirty hydrogen — used mainly in chemicals production and oil refining — with green H2 made from renewable energy would require 143% of all the wind and solar installed globally to date


and
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-many ... -liebreich
no campaign can change the fundamental physics or economics of hydrogen as a heating solution, which absolutely suck. If the goal is to use North Sea wind to heat our homes in winter, the Hydrogen Science Coalition has shown that it would require 5.8 times as many turbines to do so....

The H21 study was a detailed analysis of how you could first switch heating in the City of Leeds to hydrogen, and then roll out the same process in 16 other major cities. It is a good piece of work, though as we shall see makes a lot of assumptions that make hydrogen look good. And no wonder: it was sponsored by two gas distribution network companies, an oilfield services provider and a company providing testing and certification services to the hydrogen sector.

The study estimates the price of switching Leeds to hydrogen heating at £2.05 billion (in 2016 money), split into £991 million of capital expenditure by the gas network and £1053 million of operating costs in the form of labour and appliances. For the illustrative roll-out to another 16 cities, covering about 30% of UK gas users, it comes up with a conversion cost of £57 billion.

We can calculate pro-rata what that would mean for the entire 24 million gas-heated homes in the UK - it would give a total of £190 billion. You can bet they didn't mention that figure on the hydrogen bus at the party conferences!

But even the £190 billion figure would be hopelessly optimistic.

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Re: Hydrogen matters

#538609

Postby XFool » October 18th, 2022, 3:34 pm

Hallucigenia wrote:And Michael Liebreich has been on form, with a great keynote speech to the World Hydrogen Congress :
https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/analysi ... -1-1334006

and
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-many ... -liebreich
no campaign can change the fundamental physics or economics of hydrogen as a heating solution, which absolutely suck. If the goal is to use North Sea wind to heat our homes in winter, the Hydrogen Science Coalition has shown that it would require 5.8 times as many turbines to do so....

I really don't know a great deal about all this, but it does seem a very strange idea to use electricity (an energy transporter not a source of energy) to generate hydrogen (an energy transporter not a source of energy) to burn in homes to produce heat... Why not just heat from the primary energy transporter, electricity?

Unless there can be some (temporary?) advantage from diluting fossil fuel gas with such hydrogen?

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Re: Hydrogen matters

#538630

Postby Hallucigenia » October 18th, 2022, 4:22 pm

XFool wrote:I really don't know a great deal about all this, but it does seem a very strange idea to use electricity (an energy transporter not a source of energy) to generate hydrogen (an energy transporter not a source of energy) to burn in homes to produce heat... Why not just heat from the primary energy transporter, electricity?

Unless there can be some (temporary?) advantage from diluting fossil fuel gas with such hydrogen?


The gas companies are promoting the idea of diluting natural gas with 10-20% hydrogen as a stepping stone to replacing natural gas with 100% hydrogen in the same way as we went from town gas to natural gas. This has big advantages from their POV - it implies there's still a gas industry, and they don't have to write off a huge investment in transmission networks. It also has a big advantage from government's POV, in that it's the closest to business as usual in the short term, which means voters don't have to shell out lumps of capex to change from existing gas boilers etc to electric heating (whether heat pumps or whatever). But ultimately consumers pay the cost because they're using 6x as much energy at source.

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Re: Hydrogen matters

#538828

Postby Hallucigenia » October 19th, 2022, 2:47 am

Snorvey wrote:Well they are planning to build / are building 50gw of offshore wind (which is nearly 5 x what we have now).


Some of that is to replace gas electricity, some to power all the other stuff that's getting electrified, but it will definitely help.

Snorvey wrote:Far better to have 'intelligent' storage heaters that can 'soak up' the excess electricity when other demand is low. Much more efficient than converting it into hydrogen and piping it into someones house (I think)


We'll need some hydrogen in store for the periods of no wind - I've mentioned before the Ruhnau & Qvist paper which suggested the worse case for Germany in the last 35 years was winter 1996–1997 which would have needed 24 days or 36TWh of stored energy which they propose most comes from 54.8TWh of stored hydrogen, with 1.3TWh of pumped hydro and 59 GWh (0.059 TWh) of batteries.

One can debate that mix, but it gives the idea that a certain amount of stored hydrogen is very useful to the grid to get us through the rarest weather events, and so there's a synergy with having hydrogen being used for some other perhaps less critical purposes - which don't have to be electricity/heating-related.

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Re: Hydrogen matters

#538846

Postby JohnB » October 19th, 2022, 7:40 am

If you need an emergency store, better for that to be a gas power generation one, with existing infrastructure mothballed, than creating a new set. Or invest in pumpback for existing reservoirs, the big ones that have multi year refill cycles. Or pay industry to shut down.

All sorts of emergency options to avoid domestic consumers wasting electricity year round with the dreadful green hydrogen cycle efficiencies

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Re: Hydrogen matters

#540664

Postby XFool » October 23rd, 2022, 6:54 pm

Peak power: hydrogen to be injected into UK station for first time

The Guardian

Exclusive: Joint venture with Centrica is aimed ultimately at reducing carbon intensity at the site

"Hydrogen is produced by splitting water using electricity, with minimal emissions. It is seen as key to decarbonising energy-intensive industries although there is fierce debate over its use and the motivations of the army of lobbyists pushing its cause in Westminster."

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Re: Hydrogen matters

#542150

Postby Hallucigenia » October 28th, 2022, 11:46 pm

JohnB wrote:If you need an emergency store, better for that to be a gas power generation one, with existing infrastructure mothballed, than creating a new set. Or invest in pumpback for existing reservoirs, the big ones that have multi year refill cycles. Or pay industry to shut down.

All sorts of emergency options to avoid domestic consumers wasting electricity year round with the dreadful green hydrogen cycle efficiencies


Well the effect of efficiency depends on how much the electricity is costing you in the first place - I would rather burn £10/MWh electricity at 25% efficiency than store £50/MWh electricity at 100% efficiency, so if there's "unwanted" wind electricity available at night then you could use that to fill up your seasonal/long-term stores of hydrogen, and you'll only be using those "dreadful green hydrogen cycle efficiencies" a few times a year if at all, so the overall effect on electricity prices is not that great.

All the things you mention are possible too, but I think it's worth doing the study to see where you end up with the "purist", "zero" approach and then you can think about how it fits in with existing infrastructure and eg the needs of the non-electricity hydrogen market - as well as using existing CCGT to cover the gaps, you may see existing gas storage converting to hydrogen, so the "existing infrastructure" thing works both ways. The interaction with the non-electricity hydrogen market is the big uncertainty though.

Talking of which, an OECD-backed thinktank dismisses the possibility of hydrogen trucking in all but niche cases :

https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/ ... tainty.pdf
Based on the scenarios explored, hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are less competitive than the other two zero-emission technologies. FCEVs are cost competitive in only a small number of marginal cases that assume ambitiously low hydrogen fuel costs and very conservative assumptions for BEVs. This suggests that FCEVs might play a niche role in the future fleet of heavy-duty road vehicles, which in turn raises doubts about whether large-scale hydrogen refuelling infrastructure would be sufficiently utilised. At least for Europe, the results of the analysis thus call into question whether policies should necessarily remain technology-neutral regarding the mass-market adoption of hydrogen as a fuel for trucks. That said, it is possible that these findings apply to the European truck market only. FCEVs might offer a decarbonisation solution in other regions where road freight covers longer distances...

for the vehicle categories investigated, FCEVs are unlikely to be able to compete economically with BEVs or ICEVs. This is primarily due to their high upfront purchase costs (which are similar to those for BEVs) combined with relatively high energy costs. In a number of edge cases, with hydrogen fuel costs below EUR 2.5/kgH2 and conservative scenarios for other technologies, FCEVs could be adopted in certain segments. However, in 90% of the scenarios explored FCEVs do not attain more than 10% market share before 2050. This analysis investigates the mass market vehicle categories used in road freight. It is possible that FCEVs could be the preferred technology in relatively niche use-cases not considered in this report (e.g. heavy-duty 70-tonne applications or vehicles used in construction).


And Baden-Württemberg looked at 30y TCO for hydrogen trains vs batteries & catenary electrification and found H2 was 82% more expensive than batteries on one line & 67% more on another, with full electrification via catenary 10-15% more than batteries. They're a bit of an unusual case in that 71% of their lines are already electrified and their lines in general aren't that long, but it's a useful datapoint.
https://vm.baden-wuerttemberg.de/filead ... erkehr.pdf
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Re: Hydrogen matters

#545454

Postby Hallucigenia » November 10th, 2022, 1:06 pm

Anyone still think that hydrogen will be anything more than a niche fuel for road vehicles?

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transpo ... -1-1351675

The average price of hydrogen fuel has surged by a third in California — the world’s second-largest fuel-cell vehicle (FCV) market...FCVs in the state will now be more than four times as expensive to run as electric vehicles charged at home. The average hydrogen pump price has risen from $15.97/kg on 1 July to an all-time high of $21.28/kg — a 33.25% increase...the cost of a journey from Los Angeles to San Francisco in an FCV has increased from $85 in July to $114 today....the California Fuel Cell Partnership reporting that only 153 units were sold in the US in the third quarter of 2022 — a year-on-year decrease of 82%....
The average hydrogen pump price of $21.28/kg equals a price per mile of $0.30.
An average gasoline price of $5,46/gallon in California equals a price per mile of $0.22
An average state electricity price for end users of $0.273 cents/kWh (in August) equals a price per mile for an EV of $0.07. (This is despite California having the highest electricity prices in the contiguous US.)
Using a Tesla supercharger during peak hours, at a cost of $0.50/kWh equals a per-mile price of $0.13.

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Re: Hydrogen matters

#551258

Postby 88V8 » November 30th, 2022, 6:27 pm

A niche car company plans a niche refuelling system... Hydrogen supercar maker Hyperion isn't happy about the state of hydrogen fuel infrastructure, so it's decided to start building its own, rolling out yacht-styled mobile hydrogen stations across the United States that can generate fuel on-site.
According to IbisWorld, there are 72,296 gas stations in the United States. According to GLP Autogas, there are just 107 hydrogen fueling stations in the USA, including private fleet facilities. If you take California and Hawaii out of the picture, there are a grand total of zero.


Roll-out to begin next year.
Believe it when you see it, but as it mentions in the article, there is nowhere near enough lithium to meet the politico's ambitions for an EV future.

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Re: Hydrogen matters

#551327

Postby servodude » December 1st, 2022, 6:41 am

88V8 wrote:there is nowhere near enough lithium to meet the politico's ambitions for an EV future.


I've seen various measures
- but I thought the main problem was current underinvestment in extraction because the extreme volatile pricing has lead to boom/bust cycles

I think global reserves are actually quite healthy (multiples more than the expected needs) - but we can build batteries faster than it is brought up

-sd

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Re: Hydrogen matters

#551393

Postby 88V8 » December 1st, 2022, 10:46 am

servodude wrote:
88V8 wrote:there is nowhere near enough lithium to meet the politico's ambitions for an EV future.
I've seen various measures
- but I thought the main problem was current underinvestment in extraction because the extreme volatile pricing has lead to boom/bust cycles
I think global reserves are actually quite healthy (multiples more than the expected needs) - but we can build batteries faster than it is brought up

That's as I understand it. New mines need to be opened up... lead time... and then there's China's present stranglehold... and it's not just EVs, we need battery farms to make sense of our renewables.

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Re: Hydrogen matters

#551403

Postby servodude » December 1st, 2022, 11:08 am

88V8 wrote:
servodude wrote:
88V8 wrote:there is nowhere near enough lithium to meet the politico's ambitions for an EV future.
I've seen various measures
- but I thought the main problem was current underinvestment in extraction because the extreme volatile pricing has lead to boom/bust cycles
I think global reserves are actually quite healthy (multiples more than the expected needs) - but we can build batteries faster than it is brought up

That's as I understand it. New mines need to be opened up... lead time... and then there's China's present stranglehold... and it's not just EVs, we need battery farms to make sense of our renewables.

V8


Yeah but their stranglehold isn't on reserves (unless they buy Chile?!); which I accept is more of a future looking view than one dealing with immediate supply
China do already have a decent amount of industry around recycling or on-selling batteries after they've lost a bit of capacity - so there's secondary industries there looking interesting in the shorter term.

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Re: Hydrogen matters

#555304

Postby Hallucigenia » December 16th, 2022, 3:11 pm

How it started....
https://www.sustainable-bus.com/fuel-ce ... wiesbaden/
5 October 2021 CaetanoBus has just delivered 10 hydrogen buses in Wiesbaden (Germany)....The 12-meter hydrogen-powered buses will be operated by ESWE Verkehr, the public transport operator of Wiesbaden, on the routes 16 and 17....The ten 2-door H2.CityGold units will be equipped with a Toyota fuel cell, a small battery pack with 44 kWh capacity and a Siemens power train with 180 kW peak power. The type IV hydrogen tanks will have a total capacity of 37.5kg to offer a drive range over 400 kilometres on a single refill. The H2.City Gold from CaetanoBus has the most advanced technology available on the market presently and offer to drivers and passengers an unique experience.

...how it's going :
https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transpo ... -1-1375568
16 December 2022 Wiesbaden’s public transport company to end H2 programme — which had received more than €5m from EU and German authorities — and stick to electric battery buses over long term. The German city of Wiesbaden is to retire its ten hydrogen-powered fuel-cell buses — a year after they were delivered — after its publicly owned transport company’s €2.3m ($2.44m) filling station broke down...
the official reasons for the decision are not exactly clear, with the problems with the green-hydrogen filling station not mentioned.
According to an ESWE press release unveiled on Wednesday, the one-year-old buses are too small to meet demand — “buses with a larger passenger capacity are needed” — and that having “two drive technologies in our workshop infrastructure is already very demanding”. ESWE will therefore procure 36 new articulated diesel buses “for the years 2022 to 2024” — because “there are currently no such buses with so-called alternative drives on the market”. But it also said that it has no intention of ever using hydrogen buses again — without explaining why.


This may also be a factor :
https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-tra ... -1-1143717
A two-year-old project to run 51 hydrogen buses in the French city of Montpellier and its environs has been cancelled for being too expensive after elected officials realised that electric buses would be six times cheaper to run.
The €29m ($33m) Montpellier Horizon Hydrogen project — which included the construction of a small solar-powered green-hydrogen plant — had been announced by EDF subsidiary Hynamics in December 2019.
Since then, it has been awarded €18m of funding, including €6.9m of grants from regional, national and European funds — with the most recent coming from the EU’s Connecting Europe Facility less than a month ago — and €8.9m of investment and loans from the French sovereign fund Caisse des Dépôts....
“for the moment, we are giving up on hydrogen buses; we will see in 2030 if hydrogen is cheaper.” Julie Frêche, the vice-president of the Montpellier Méditerranée Métropole, who is in charge of transport, told the French business newspaper La Tribune that the operation of the hydrogen buses would cost €3m per year, compared to €500,000 with electric ones — or €0.95 per km versus €0.15. She added that hydrogen buses were €150,000-200,000 more expensive to buy than their electric counterparts.


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