The Lemon Fool

I realised we did not have a specific gas thread, so I've started one

That may seem odd as this is a link to a nitrogen fertiliser article re USA, courtesy JohnKempReuters, ising the Haber-Bosch process
https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices ... n-industry

As a balance here are some sustainable (?) nitrogen fertiliser paths using renewables (?), mostly wind/solar,

https://royresearch.com/renewable-nitrogen-fertilizer/
http://biomassmagazine.com/articles/350 ... production
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/05/28/co ... sil-fuels/

- dspp

Secretary of State Pompeo says the U.S. will remove a sanctions exemption for Russia's Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline to Germany, paving the way for new penalties to be imposed on the project. The new measure allows the U.S. to deploy a wider range of punishments against the pipeline, as the Trump administration tries to thwart the project and lead developer Gazprom ........earlier this month, Denmark regulators approved a petition that gave Nord Stream 2 a technical workaround to the sanctions,

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3591475-u ... ent=link-3

- dspp

"Ban new gas boilers in UK from 2025 or risk missing net zero target, says CBI
Industry group says Britain’s climate goals may be doomed without heating overhaul"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ls-heating

Includes recommend banning new oil boilers from 2023. Notes that Con gov policy is inadequate at present.

- dspp

Nord Stream 2 at increased risk of non-completion, financial partner says
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3604021-n ... ent=link-3
- dspp

dspp wrote:Nord Stream 2 at increased risk of non-completion, financial partner says
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3604021-n ... ent=link-3
- dspp

I'm not entirely sure they have the amount or the currency correct, but if they do you have to admire the chutzpah of the Poles on this,

"Poland's antitrust agency slaps a $7.6B fine on Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY) for building the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany, saying the project hurts Polish consumers and increases Europe’s dependence on Russian imports."

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3620407-g ... ent=link-1

- dspp

Trump rattles Nordstream2 cage in last days, 100km remains unlaid
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3651162-u ... king_alpha

(does Pence have a different view on this ?)

regards, dspp

[url][/url]Methane to methanol:
Identification of room-temperature titanium/copper catalyst to convert the methane in natural gas, to methanol. Usually requires high-temp process. Could be significant. Could be.

One can run engines on methanol. Too late for cars, but marine....

Copper catalyst paper here https://www.pnas.org/content/118/8/e2023233118
Commentary here https://newatlas.com/energy/new-catalys ... mperature/

Been a crock of gold for some time, 2019 paper on a more complex process using gallium, here https://www.cell.com/chem/fulltext/S2451-9294(19)30029-4

International Maritime Organisation paper from 2016 on running marine engines on methanol https://glomeep.imo.org/wp-content/uplo ... eb_web.pdf See 4.4.1 for emissions.

All good stuff, albeit mostly above my pay grade.

V8

State Department report allows Nord Stream 2 pipeline to proceed for now
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3664691-s ... king_alpha

- dspp

"BERLIN/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Germany is betting the U.S. administration will take a pragmatic approach to the Nord Stream 2 project to ship Russian gas to Europe and is pushing for the pipeline’s completion in defiance of U.S. opposition, officials and diplomats said."

etc https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germ ... SKBN2B80H0

- dspp

"US warns Nord Stream pipeline is 'Russian geopolitical project'
Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, says firms involved in pipeline should stop work or risk sanctions"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... al-project

- dspp

On US natural gas and LNG..... Over the last 15 years, driven by the shale gas revolution, US production has grown by an incredible 85%. In the last six years alone, gas supply has surged 60%. Today, almost everyone believes US gas supply can continue to grow strongly as we progress through this decade. Little analysis is being done by anyone on supply issues, or how long the shale gas revolution has left to run. Also something else has happened that receives no comment: never has before has natural gas production been concentrated in so few fields. Over 50% of US gas supply comes from just three fields. The Marcellus and Hayneville shale gas fields today produce almost 40% US gas supply. Adding the associated gas from the Permian oil shale takes this to 52%.

As we will discuss extensively in our upcoming quarterly letter, we believe that the tremendous growth in US natural gas supply, all shale driven, is about to slow dramatically.

More from Goehring & Rozencwajg.... https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/the-global-natural-gas-crisis-is-coming-to-north-america?_hsmi=210718411&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9IAwDvzFlxmw1IPQ6gLzEv_DjGnUrC7EDM-xXCq2xJ6llBQv3KtJKGGD7XSkYFXvoQcEFjRO6WNADFPfzoavTakomU1A

If they are right, this has big implications for North America.

My only gas play is Diversified Energy DEC, primarily a dividend cow, in which I now have more than BP but less than Shell.
It usually trades within a small range but I shall probably increase on weakness.

V8

88V8 wrote:On US natural gas and LNG..... Over the last 15 years, driven by the shale gas revolution, US production has grown by an incredible 85%. In the last six years alone, gas supply has surged 60%. Today, almost everyone believes US gas supply can continue to grow strongly as we progress through this decade. Little analysis is being done by anyone on supply issues, or how long the shale gas revolution has left to run. Also something else has happened that receives no comment: never has before has natural gas production been concentrated in so few fields. Over 50% of US gas supply comes from just three fields. The Marcellus and Hayneville shale gas fields today produce almost 40% US gas supply. Adding the associated gas from the Permian oil shale takes this to 52%.

As we will discuss extensively in our upcoming quarterly letter, we believe that the tremendous growth in US natural gas supply, all shale driven, is about to slow dramatically.

More from Goehring & Rozencwajg.... https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/the-global-natural-gas-crisis-is-coming-to-north-america?_hsmi=210718411&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9IAwDvzFlxmw1IPQ6gLzEv_DjGnUrC7EDM-xXCq2xJ6llBQv3KtJKGGD7XSkYFXvoQcEFjRO6WNADFPfzoavTakomU1A

If they are right, this has big implications for North America.

My only gas play is Diversified Energy DEC, primarily a dividend cow, in which I now have more than BP but less than Shell.
It usually trades within a small range but I shall probably increase on weakness.

V8

Of the super majors, I think Shell has the largest gas portfolio. Without looking it up, I think Shell's revenue from it's gas portfolio exceeds that of oil. The future still looks bright for gas/LNG. Given the exploration drought since 2014 with no new major oil or gas fields being discovered or developed, there's only one way the price is going.

I saw a news paper report that the Rough Gas storage facility is to reopen in months. Will it be in time to stockpile gas at cheaper prices before winter or will it happen too late (if it happens at all).

This Bloomberg article talks about "Britain is in talks to reopen [Rough]....The UK government and Centrica Plc are considering" - sounds like someone in government has said "Something Must Be Done - NOWWW!!!" and then some poor civil servant is tasked with working out details, but these things take time to work through and nothing is actually happening yet.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rgy-crisis

But if you want to start storing gas, you want to start now - whereas even if they went flat out it will take a while to get it up and running again.

Hallucigenia wrote:This Bloomberg article talks about "Britain is in talks to reopen [Rough]....The UK government and Centrica Plc are considering" - sounds like someone in government has said "Something Must Be Done - NOWWW!!!" and then some poor civil servant is tasked with working out details, but these things take time to work through and nothing is actually happening yet.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rgy-crisis

But if you want to start storing gas, you want to start now - whereas even if they went flat out it will take a while to get it up and running again.

We always look for short term cost saving measures in this country, then pay a high price later.

MrFoolish wrote:We always look for short term cost saving measures in this country, then pay a high price later.

That's a lazy generalisation - you only notice when it goes wrong, you don't notice when the right thing is done and everything works as it should.

OTOH the Rough closure was always an obvious disaster waiting to happen, we only got away with it because we were no longer subject to EU rules on gas storage.

Hallucigenia wrote:

MrFoolish wrote:We always look for short term cost saving measures in this country, then pay a high price later.

That's a lazy generalisation - you only notice when it goes wrong, you don't notice when the right thing is done and everything works as it should.

OTOH the Rough closure was always an obvious disaster waiting to happen, we only got away with it because we were no longer subject to EU rules on gas storage.

Generally like your roundup posts Hal. However I wonder what EU rules were in place to stop the EU becoming utterly dependent on Russian gas and find themselves inadvertently bankrolling a war? A UK mouse sized problem compared to an EU elephant?

Sorcery wrote:However I wonder what EU rules were in place to stop the EU becoming utterly dependent on Russian gas and find themselves inadvertently bankrolling a war? A UK mouse sized problem compared to an EU elephant?

It's weird, it's almost like individual member states had sovereign control of their energy policy and the Eurocrats in Brussels had limited powers or will to interfere in their sovereign affairs....

But you want Brussels to interfere in the running of individual member countries? You Euro-socialist you!

FWIW, this paper from 2014 gives an overview of where individual countries were at :
https://op.europa.eu/o/opportal-service ... t=#page=98

Since the invasion, this stuff has risen up the agenda for voters and hence elected governments across Europe, and they've increased the requirements for gas stored each year :
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/ ... S_BRI(2022)729393_EN.pdf

Hallucigenia wrote:

Sorcery wrote:However I wonder what EU rules were in place to stop the EU becoming utterly dependent on Russian gas and find themselves inadvertently bankrolling a war? A UK mouse sized problem compared to an EU elephant?

It's weird, it's almost like individual member states had sovereign control of their energy policy and the Eurocrats in Brussels had limited powers or will to interfere in their sovereign affairs....

But you want Brussels to interfere in the running of individual member countries? You Euro-socialist you!

FWIW, this paper from 2014 gives an overview of where individual countries were at :
https://op.europa.eu/o/opportal-service ... t=#page=98

Since the invasion, this stuff has risen up the agenda for voters and hence elected governments across Europe, and they've increased the requirements for gas stored each year :
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/ ... S_BRI(2022)729393_EN.pdf

Well we know how much the EU states valued their own security, (not a lot if others were prepared to pay!), so I suspect EU states were presented with pipelines from Russia, a cheap price (certainly compared to LNG), and also since everyone else in the EU was buying from Russia they all joined in and fell into Putin's trap. It shows a dismal lack of thought by EU countries. Exactly who we have to thank for the UK's independence from Russian gas, I don't know but they deserve recognition for their foresignt and a gong imv.

Sorcery wrote:

Hallucigenia wrote:

Sorcery wrote:However I wonder what EU rules were in place to stop the EU becoming utterly dependent on Russian gas and find themselves inadvertently bankrolling a war? A UK mouse sized problem compared to an EU elephant?

It's weird, it's almost like individual member states had sovereign control of their energy policy and the Eurocrats in Brussels had limited powers or will to interfere in their sovereign affairs....

But you want Brussels to interfere in the running of individual member countries? You Euro-socialist you!

FWIW, this paper from 2014 gives an overview of where individual countries were at :
https://op.europa.eu/o/opportal-service ... t=#page=98

Since the invasion, this stuff has risen up the agenda for voters and hence elected governments across Europe, and they've increased the requirements for gas stored each year :
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/ ... S_BRI(2022)729393_EN.pdf

Well we know how much the EU states valued their own security, (not a lot if others were prepared to pay!), so I suspect EU states were presented with pipelines from Russia, a cheap price (certainly compared to LNG), and also since everyone else in the EU was buying from Russia they all joined in and fell into Putin's trap. It shows a dismal lack of thought by EU countries. Exactly who we have to thank for the UK's independence from Russian gas, I don't know but they deserve recognition for their foresignt and a gong imv.

I suppose you can thank the same morons that said we don't need Rough Gas Storage facility because we can rely on just in time deliveries of LNG from Russia (and Qatar).........