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The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

Lootman
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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#442570

Postby Lootman » September 15th, 2021, 5:31 pm

XFool wrote:
Lootman wrote:
XFool wrote:You think, long term, the market can buck reality? But then, I wasn't really making an investment point...

Back when I worked in the markets we had a saying: "A long term investment is a short term investment that went wrong".

But of course your point presupposes that people agree about what is reality, and they do not. It is just opinions.

Reality doesn't do 'consultations' or take 'opinion polls'. Doesn't need to 'invest', get a 'return on investment', or do politics.

I was just hoping to become a better investor by understanding your superior sense of what constitutes "reality". I imagine with an inside track on reality, your investment results must be very impressive. And this is an investment board.

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#442572

Postby XFool » September 15th, 2021, 5:37 pm

Lootman wrote:
XFool wrote:
Lootman wrote:Back when I worked in the markets we had a saying: "A long term investment is a short term investment that went wrong".

But of course your point presupposes that people agree about what is reality, and they do not. It is just opinions.

Reality doesn't do 'consultations' or take 'opinion polls'. Doesn't need to 'invest', get a 'return on investment', or do politics.

I was just hoping to become a better investor by understanding your superior sense of what constitutes "reality". I imagine with an inside track on reality, your investment results must be very impressive.

Your further mistake is in assuming it is all about my real or imagined 'superior sense of what constitutes "reality" '. Rather it's more a case of reality doesn't care about anyone's opinions, it just does its thing. We pure humans can but attempt to try and understand what that is.

Now, there are human activities concerned with exploring and investigating the nature of reality. But I didn't invent them either, or even imagine that I did. ;)

Lootman
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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#442573

Postby Lootman » September 15th, 2021, 5:40 pm

XFool wrote:
Lootman wrote:
XFool wrote:Reality doesn't do 'consultations' or take 'opinion polls'. Doesn't need to 'invest', get a 'return on investment', or do politics.

I was just hoping to become a better investor by understanding your superior sense of what constitutes "reality". I imagine with an inside track on reality, your investment results must be very impressive.

reality doesn't care about anyone's opinions

No doubt. But you must have a view of what that reality is. And given that, what does reality imply for the future performance of energy shares? This is the board for discussing energy companies as investments after all.

The OP believes that we will have fossil fuel around for decades as do I. That implies energy shares should continue to do well. How does reality help you assess that claim?

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#442578

Postby XFool » September 15th, 2021, 5:47 pm

Lootman wrote:The OP believes that we will have fossil fuel around for decades as do I. That implies energy shares should continue to do well. How does reality help you assess that claim?

I already answered that at the end of my first post here.

XFool wrote:
Sorcery wrote:My guess is that we are going to have to continue to use fossil fuels until technology can save us.

In other words it's a transition, not a Blitzkreig?

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#442581

Postby Lootman » September 15th, 2021, 5:55 pm

XFool wrote:
Lootman wrote:The OP believes that we will have fossil fuel around for decades as do I. That implies energy shares should continue to do well. How does reality help you assess that claim?

I already answered that at the end of my first post here.

Do you mean when you said that long term the (energy) market cannot buck reality?

But what does that mean in terms of investment performance? Do you believe that energy shares will go to zero? Or is "reality" already baked into energy share prices, which could easily mean they will continue to go up from here.

What is your prediction?

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#442587

Postby XFool » September 15th, 2021, 6:06 pm

Lootman wrote:
XFool wrote:
Lootman wrote:The OP believes that we will have fossil fuel around for decades as do I. That implies energy shares should continue to do well. How does reality help you assess that claim?

I already answered that at the end of my first post here.

Do you mean when you said that long term the (energy) market cannot buck reality?

Insofar as the "energy market" not bucking reality corresponds to the realities of fossil fuels/CO2/global warming/climate change then yes, obviously.
But what will constitute "the energy market" in the future? Do you know?

Lootman wrote:But what does that mean in terms of investment performance?

Short term? Medium term? Long term?

I'll save you the trouble - I've no idea!

Lootman wrote:Do you believe that energy shares will go to zero? Or is "reality" already baked into energy share prices, which could easily mean they will continue to go up from here.

Or could stay the same from here? Or could go down from here? And what if perceived reality changes in the future?

Lootman wrote:What is your prediction?

That the energy market will fluctuate.

Lootman
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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#442589

Postby Lootman » September 15th, 2021, 6:10 pm

XFool wrote:
Lootman wrote:But what does that mean in terms of investment performance?

I've no idea!

OK.

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#442591

Postby XFool » September 15th, 2021, 6:16 pm

..."A man's got to know his limitations" - C. Eastwood

murraypaul
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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#447699

Postby murraypaul » October 4th, 2021, 12:06 pm

murraypaul wrote:This also isn't the first time we've used coal recently, as you can see from the historic graphs here:
https://gridwatch.co.uk/coal
We started to use coal at about the same time last year.

Feels more like a headline than an actual news story.


According to https://gridwatch.co.uk/demand/percent, no coal has been used since 21st September.
So yes, a headline rather than a story.

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#447866

Postby Nimrod103 » October 4th, 2021, 8:18 pm

murraypaul wrote:
murraypaul wrote:This also isn't the first time we've used coal recently, as you can see from the historic graphs here:
https://gridwatch.co.uk/coal
We started to use coal at about the same time last year.

Feels more like a headline than an actual news story.


According to https://gridwatch.co.uk/demand/percent, no coal has been used since 21st September.
So yes, a headline rather than a story.


Gridwatch says coal providing 2% of UK electricity today.

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#447869

Postby Lootman » October 4th, 2021, 8:26 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
murraypaul wrote:
murraypaul wrote:This also isn't the first time we've used coal recently, as you can see from the historic graphs here:
https://gridwatch.co.uk/coal
We started to use coal at about the same time last year.

Feels more like a headline than an actual news story.

According to https://gridwatch.co.uk/demand/percent, no coal has been used since 21st September.
So yes, a headline rather than a story.

Gridwatch says coal providing 2% of UK electricity today.

Perhaps the problem is that the groovy euphemism for coal these days is "biomass", which somehow seems so much more green and cuddly.

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#447878

Postby NotSure » October 4th, 2021, 9:01 pm

Lootman wrote:Perhaps the problem is that the groovy euphemism for coal these days is "biomass", which somehow seems so much more green and cuddly.


Biomass is renewable - basically wood and other plant/animal material. It's not a synonym for coal or other fossil fuels. Whether it's truly 'clean' is another matter, but it is specifically renewable.

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/biomass/

Lootman
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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#447881

Postby Lootman » October 4th, 2021, 9:06 pm

NotSure wrote:
Lootman wrote:Perhaps the problem is that the groovy euphemism for coal these days is "biomass", which somehow seems so much more green and cuddly.

Biomass is renewable - basically wood and other plant/animal material. It's not a synonym for coal or other fossil fuels. Whether it's truly 'clean' is another matter, but it is specifically renewable.

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/biomass/

Well all i know is that I saw Drax (of all people) claiming to be a "biomass energy provider" and of course in Yorkshire they run the biggest coal plant in the UK which (at least at times) provides 7% of UK energy.

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#447882

Postby NotSure » October 4th, 2021, 9:11 pm

Lootman wrote:Well all i know is that I saw Drax (of all people) claiming to be a "biomass energy provider" and of course in Yorkshire they run the biggest coal plant in the UK which (at least at times) provides 7% of UK energy.


They (DRAX) are getting there: https://www.drax.com/investors/end-of-coal-generation-at-drax-power-station/

Following a comprehensive review of operations and discussions with National Grid, Ofgem and the UK Government, the Board of Drax has determined to end commercial coal generation at Drax Power Station in 2021 – ahead of the UK’s 2025 deadline.

Commercial coal generation is expected to end in March 2021, with formal closure of the coal units in September 2022 at the end of existing Capacity Market obligations......

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#447884

Postby Lootman » October 4th, 2021, 9:14 pm

NotSure wrote:
Lootman wrote:Well all i know is that I saw Drax (of all people) claiming to be a "biomass energy provider" and of course in Yorkshire they run the biggest coal plant in the UK which (at least at times) provides 7% of UK energy.

They (DRAX) are getting there: https://www.drax.com/investors/end-of-coal-generation-at-drax-power-station/
Following a comprehensive review of operations and discussions with National Grid, Ofgem and the UK Government, the Board of Drax has determined to end commercial coal generation at Drax Power Station in 2021 – ahead of the UK’s 2025 deadline.

Commercial coal generation is expected to end in March 2021, with formal closure of the coal units in September 2022 at the end of existing Capacity Market obligations......

Fair enough. The final nail in Scargill's coffin. Perhaps Thatcher was ahead of her time and had impeccable green credentials?

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#447887

Postby NotSure » October 4th, 2021, 9:20 pm

Lootman wrote:Fair enough. The final nail in Scargill's coffin. Perhaps Thatcher was ahead of her time and had impeccable green credentials?


I think Johnson beat you to it on that one :)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/05/johnson-makes-unbelievably-crass-joke-about-thatcher-closing-coal-mines
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/08/05/margaret-thatcher-gave-uk-early-start-going-green-closing-coal/

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#447895

Postby Lootman » October 4th, 2021, 9:45 pm

NotSure wrote:
Lootman wrote:Fair enough. The final nail in Scargill's coffin. Perhaps Thatcher was ahead of her time and had impeccable green credentials?

I think Johnson beat you to it on that one :)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/05/johnson-makes-unbelievably-crass-joke-about-thatcher-closing-coal-mines
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/08/05/margaret-thatcher-gave-uk-early-start-going-green-closing-coal/

Damn. Nice example of how the Guardian and Telegraph see things differently. The Guardian claims the observation was "crass" whilst the Telegraph instead suggests that the Scots are too sensitive. :D

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#447901

Postby Mike4 » October 4th, 2021, 9:55 pm

Lootman wrote:Fair enough. The final nail in Scargill's coffin. Perhaps Thatcher was ahead of her time and had impeccable green credentials?


Not sure where 'perhaps' comes into it.

Her "Climate change" speech to the UN, in 1989:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnAzoDt ... nel=JonDee

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#447903

Postby Sorcery » October 4th, 2021, 10:27 pm

Mike4 wrote:
Lootman wrote:Fair enough. The final nail in Scargill's coffin. Perhaps Thatcher was ahead of her time and had impeccable green credentials?


Not sure where 'perhaps' comes into it.

Her "Climate change" speech to the UN, in 1989:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnAzoDt ... nel=JonDee


Will watch that but Margerat Thatcher was not omnipotent, omniescent, (there's another in that series) which kind of describes our desire for what God looks like. I thought she was pretty good at the time but not that good.

Just catching up after attending a fairly glorious wedding, UK-Spain relations are now tip-top.

Anyway oil&gas. Have almost doubled down on the wreckage of the UK O&G industry post covid. 2035 for zero-free Boris, you are having a laugh. shock:
Unfit imho. Where the heck are the engineers in government?

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Re: The pipe dream of net zero carbon emissions

#447967

Postby murraypaul » October 5th, 2021, 10:24 am

Nimrod103 wrote:
murraypaul wrote:
murraypaul wrote:This also isn't the first time we've used coal recently, as you can see from the historic graphs here:
https://gridwatch.co.uk/coal
We started to use coal at about the same time last year.
Feels more like a headline than an actual news story.

According to https://gridwatch.co.uk/demand/percent, no coal has been used since 21st September.
So yes, a headline rather than a story.

Gridwatch says coal providing 2% of UK electricity today.


I'm not seeing any coal usage in the 10 minutes samples from yesterday, although I might be missing something.
The point is that occasionally using coal in autumn and winter is not unusual, we did the same thing last year.
It was hyped up as though it was something unheard of. It isn't.


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