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Oil Price

dspp
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Re: Oil Price

#332126

Postby dspp » August 10th, 2020, 11:56 am

On the demand side of the price equation, aviation was previously 5mb/d, so about 5% of output, now down to 1.5m/d. Regrowth is sluggish.

"Efforts to contain the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have dramatically changed global commercial passenger flight volumes. These flights averaged a little more than 70,000 flights per day in January and February, fell to an average of less than 25,000 flights per day in April, and then started to increase again in May. Commercial jet fuel consumption showed a similar pattern, falling from an average of 4.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in January and February to 1.0 million b/d in April."

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44676

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Re: Oil Price

#358081

Postby dspp » November 19th, 2020, 1:21 pm

Oil demand by geography, courtesy JohnKemp Reuters

(Reuters) - China, the global oil market’s lifeline this year, has stepped up purchases from exporters like Russia, the United States and Angola in recent weeks, while buyers elsewhere pare orders as coronavirus infections surge and fresh lockdowns are put in place.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/global-o ... KL4N2I43YC

Image courtesy IEA
Image

Looks to me as if economic downturns in Europe/Americas/etc all of comparable size.

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Re: Oil Price

#359893

Postby dspp » November 25th, 2020, 11:26 am

ROPEC updates, strains remain, shale still at req'd $40 floor for min survival

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/11/ru ... opec-break

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Re: Oil Price

#383808

Postby dspp » February 5th, 2021, 9:38 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Looking positive for Brent price if we pull out of the pandemic in time for Northern hemisphere summer. If travel picks up significantly, $60 Brent should arrive and help fund energy transition at the European based super majors. Presently trading at $59.52, so it won't take too much pick up in oil use this summer to see a solid price upwards of $60. And a supply side deficit is next on the agenda medium term. When, not if. I think the outlook for European super major companies continues to look brighter.

RVF


Here is JohnKempReuters latest oil indicators chartbook

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/c ... MARKET.pdf

eyeballing it I personally think slide 5 is at the more optimistic end of the forecasting spectrum (if that is you are hoping for high oil prices).

regards, dspp

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Re: Oil Price

#385574

Postby Cyb3ria » February 11th, 2021, 9:08 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Perhaps today's $60 Brent will bring more US shale back into production. With large parts of the world economy still effectively shutdown, including Rolls Royce engine factories, restarting travel and social activities may just underpin crude prices. The oil super majors need the revenue to meet their business reshaping costs.

Oil prices climb back to pre-pandemic levels


..../news/business-55975700

RVF


Yes, but wouldn't that take time to turn back on producing structure that has been turned off during the pandemic and also come at a cost. If demand increases, assuming the pandemic is effectively in retreat, then would that not translate to supply shortages and an increase in the price beyond pre-pandemic levels?

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Re: Oil Price

#387401

Postby dspp » February 17th, 2021, 10:27 am

"Berkshire bought stock in .....Chevron Corp., bets that were granted confidential status and not revealed in a third-quarter regulatory filing, according to an updated document released Tuesday. The news of the investments sent the shares of those three companies up in after-market trading."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... lion-stake

Why any of these three were granted confidential status beats me. Anyway living proof of continued existence of dinosaurs.

regards, dspp

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Re: Oil Price

#389103

Postby dspp » February 23rd, 2021, 11:30 am

Obituary: Yamani, the Saudi oil minister who brought the West to its knees
DUBAI (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia’s Sheikh Zaki Yamani, the embodiment of the ascent of Arab petroleum power and the face of the 1973 oil embargo that brought the West to its knees, has died.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saud ... SKBN2AN0LE
- dspp

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Re: Oil Price

#407636

Postby 88V8 » April 28th, 2021, 12:36 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:$80 oil? Perhaps?

A last hurrah?
Opportunity to get out of big oil.
Or do we now think that big oil will morph into Big Renewable.

V8

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Re: Oil Price

#416823

Postby Nimrod103 » June 2nd, 2021, 1:19 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Looks like a future oil price cycle is underway as predicted here. Hovering a touch under $71 a barrel for Brent this morning. With large parts of the global economy still locked down, once global travel opens up and people start spending their pandemic savings on travel, cruises etc again, oil looks certain for $100 a barrel in the foreseeable future. Good for finances of the western oil majors who are transitioning away from oil. But at the same time, it hands a bigger slice of the market to Russia, the middle east, Brazil and other perhaps somewhat less reliable state controlled sources of supply.

RVF


Given the big rise in the £/$ exchange rate, why have fuel prices on UK forecourts risen so much?

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Re: Oil Price

#416919

Postby Nimrod103 » June 2nd, 2021, 8:37 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Looks like a future oil price cycle is underway as predicted here. Hovering a touch under $71 a barrel for Brent this morning. With large parts of the global economy still locked down, once global travel opens up and people start spending their pandemic savings on travel, cruises etc again, oil looks certain for $100 a barrel in the foreseeable future. Good for finances of the western oil majors who are transitioning away from oil. But at the same time, it hands a bigger slice of the market to Russia, the middle east, Brazil and other perhaps somewhat less reliable state controlled sources of supply.

RVF


Given the big rise in the £/$ exchange rate, why have fuel prices on UK forecourts risen so much?

Because the gain in the forex is recently less than the increase in oil price? And it seems there are opportunistic increases. Locally where there are three supermarkets all within a 250m radius of each other, the price has gone up a few pence. Last week, I saw unleaded at 148p per litre and diesel at 150p at one filling station. Needless to say, I drove past it.

RVF


For those who do not have access to competing supermarket fuels, the Competition and Markets Authority have nothing to offer. Clear market failure.
Edit to add, my only local supermarket fuel station is shut till mid June for rebuilding, and all the other local stations have raised their prices accordingly. It worries me that as electric cars increase, and petrol/diesel cars decrease, gas stations will become rarer and competition will decrease, so prices will go up.
Last edited by Nimrod103 on June 2nd, 2021, 8:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Oil Price

#416943

Postby 88V8 » June 2nd, 2021, 11:02 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:.....there used to be several independent filling stations in and just out of town. There were no supermarkets selling fuel. Now, there's three supermarkets selling fuel in the town centre and all but one filling station in the suburbs all closed.

The retail profit on fuel is minimal. Maybe 2p/litre, so after credit card charges, no profit at all.
That's why they need to sell you sweets and doughnuts.

Supermarkets subsidising their fuel have driven independents out of business.
Now in some areas one can drive for miles and miles, no fuel.
Even worse if like me, you're looking for Super grade.

I never ever buy fuel from supermarkets.

V8

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Re: Oil Price

#421899

Postby 88V8 » June 24th, 2021, 12:52 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:$100 per barrel Brent crude before this time next year? Looking highly likely I would say.

Yes, US stocks running down... it must be disillusioning for the greenification hypsters to realise that the world is still powered by oil.

Surprising that the SP of the majors has not really moved yet. If I were not so underwater I would almost think it worth going long.

V8

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Re: Oil Price

#421937

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 24th, 2021, 2:10 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Looks like a future oil price cycle is underway as predicted here. Hovering a touch under $71 a barrel for Brent this morning. With large parts of the global economy still locked down, once global travel opens up and people start spending their pandemic savings on travel, cruises etc again, oil looks certain for $100 a barrel in the foreseeable future. Good for finances of the western oil majors who are transitioning away from oil. But at the same time, it hands a bigger slice of the market to Russia, the middle east, Brazil and other perhaps somewhat less reliable state controlled sources of supply.

RVF


Given the big rise in the £/$ exchange rate, why have fuel prices on UK forecourts risen so much?

Stealth tax? To recover money spent by HM Govt in our recent lockdowns?

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Re: Oil Price

#422182

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 25th, 2021, 10:33 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
Given the big rise in the £/$ exchange rate, why have fuel prices on UK forecourts risen so much?

Stealth tax? To recover money spent by HM Govt in our recent lockdowns?

I don't believe there have been any increases in vat or fuel duty recently? Though in any case, since both are levied as a %, then the tax take increases automatically as the price on the fourcourt rises.

RVF

That's true. It was just a guess really, re. Nimrod's earlier question.

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Re: Oil Price

#422228

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 25th, 2021, 12:03 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
Given the big rise in the £/$ exchange rate, why have fuel prices on UK forecourts risen so much?

Stealth tax? To recover money spent by HM Govt in our recent lockdowns?

I don't believe there have been any increases in vat or fuel duty recently? Though in any case, since both are levied as a %, then the tax take increases automatically as the price on the fourcourt rises.

RVF

OK, perhaps the majors have increased their local prices, in order for them to recoup their losses?

Ultimately it boils down the "same thing", that is, other bodies (either corporations, or governments) passing their previous periods losses on as costs to the consumer.

Matt


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