The Lemon Fool

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Looking positive for Brent price if we pull out of the pandemic in time for Northern hemisphere summer. If travel picks up significantly, $60 Brent should arrive and help fund energy transition at the European based super majors. Presently trading at $59.52, so it won't take too much pick up in oil use this summer to see a solid price upwards of $60. And a supply side deficit is next on the agenda medium term. When, not if. I think the outlook for European super major companies continues to look brighter.

RVF

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Perhaps today's $60 Brent will bring more US shale back into production. With large parts of the world economy still effectively shutdown, including Rolls Royce engine factories, restarting travel and social activities may just underpin crude prices. The oil super majors need the revenue to meet their business reshaping costs.

Oil prices climb back to pre-pandemic levels

..../news/business-55975700

RVF

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:$80 oil? Perhaps?

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Looks like a future oil price cycle is underway as predicted here. Hovering a touch under $71 a barrel for Brent this morning. With large parts of the global economy still locked down, once global travel opens up and people start spending their pandemic savings on travel, cruises etc again, oil looks certain for $100 a barrel in the foreseeable future. Good for finances of the western oil majors who are transitioning away from oil. But at the same time, it hands a bigger slice of the market to Russia, the middle east, Brazil and other perhaps somewhat less reliable state controlled sources of supply.

RVF

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:

Nimrod103 wrote:

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Looks like a future oil price cycle is underway as predicted here. Hovering a touch under $71 a barrel for Brent this morning. With large parts of the global economy still locked down, once global travel opens up and people start spending their pandemic savings on travel, cruises etc again, oil looks certain for $100 a barrel in the foreseeable future. Good for finances of the western oil majors who are transitioning away from oil. But at the same time, it hands a bigger slice of the market to Russia, the middle east, Brazil and other perhaps somewhat less reliable state controlled sources of supply.

RVF

Given the big rise in the £/$ exchange rate, why have fuel prices on UK forecourts risen so much?

Because the gain in the forex is recently less than the increase in oil price? And it seems there are opportunistic increases. Locally where there are three supermarkets all within a 250m radius of each other, the price has gone up a few pence. Last week, I saw unleaded at 148p per litre and diesel at 150p at one filling station. Needless to say, I drove past it.

RVF

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:.....there used to be several independent filling stations in and just out of town. There were no supermarkets selling fuel. Now, there's three supermarkets selling fuel in the town centre and all but one filling station in the suburbs all closed.

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:$100 per barrel Brent crude before this time next year? Looking highly likely I would say.

Nimrod103 wrote:

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Looks like a future oil price cycle is underway as predicted here. Hovering a touch under $71 a barrel for Brent this morning. With large parts of the global economy still locked down, once global travel opens up and people start spending their pandemic savings on travel, cruises etc again, oil looks certain for $100 a barrel in the foreseeable future. Good for finances of the western oil majors who are transitioning away from oil. But at the same time, it hands a bigger slice of the market to Russia, the middle east, Brazil and other perhaps somewhat less reliable state controlled sources of supply.

RVF

Given the big rise in the £/$ exchange rate, why have fuel prices on UK forecourts risen so much?

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:

Nimrod103 wrote:
Given the big rise in the £/$ exchange rate, why have fuel prices on UK forecourts risen so much?

Stealth tax? To recover money spent by HM Govt in our recent lockdowns?

I don't believe there have been any increases in vat or fuel duty recently? Though in any case, since both are levied as a %, then the tax take increases automatically as the price on the fourcourt rises.

RVF

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:

Nimrod103 wrote:
Given the big rise in the £/$ exchange rate, why have fuel prices on UK forecourts risen so much?

Stealth tax? To recover money spent by HM Govt in our recent lockdowns?

I don't believe there have been any increases in vat or fuel duty recently? Though in any case, since both are levied as a %, then the tax take increases automatically as the price on the fourcourt rises.

RVF