JonnyT wrote:So bubblepoint approx 1600 psia as per the CPR likely to be hit in year 2 on current trajectory.
Here's the Quandary:
At circa 50% water cut ESPs are required
ESPs don't work with gas out of solution unless they are bespoke ones made for the job
Jonny,
1. It is correct that ESPs don't like gas out of solution, but back in my day they would handle a certain amount even if they were the common-or-garden variety. I have no reason to think that HUR would have installed bespoke ones as I saw nothing in the various public documents to suggest that they thought this significant. After all FBHP falling below bubble point was thought to be such an unlikely outcome that would only eventuate if the field were nigh-on uneconomic.
2. The intersected frac set may itself act as a separator in which case any gas breakout in the near wellbore region
might rise straight past the wellbore and go up to the top of the formation. This - ironically - might be an assistance in the situation under discussion. Though it would have other consequences of course.
3. I see lots of folk talking about either sidetracking the existing well(s), or drilling new ones, to targets higher in the formation. There are three issues I see here:
a) if the OWC is set as high as we are beginning to suspect it is, then there are not that many places (horizontal targets) in Lancaster where one could put any well, and still not draw in water rather quickly;
b) it is quite likely that one could not reach any of those targets (and intersect them at the right orientation) from a sidetrack of either of the existing wells, and even if one could reach them it is possible that there is not sufficient adequacy left in the casing to take the wear etc involved (these are quite shallow wells, we don't know enough in public to be sure), i.e. there is a target issue and a technical integrity issue;
c) and for either a sidetrack or a new #8 well it is mere conjecture at this point as to whether the risked NPV exceeds the fairly well known cost, i.e. are the economics worth it.
4. Above 50% watercut the AM FPSO is beginning to look gross liquids constrained, and the overall economics don't get any better as time goes on (fuel gas, prodchem, corrosion, etc).
I'm not saying there is no chance of a tolerable outcome, but it looks a very slim chance to me. Nevertheless I will follow it with interest out of technical curiosity and in case it is worth a smidge of a punt. It is easy to see why the bonds are trading below 50% now, in fact I think I saw someone cite 45% recently. It is hard to see equity surviving though good luck to anyone brave enough.
regards, dspp