Tinderboy wrote:Question for dspp, do you think drilling another well in lancaster will happen and if so where would you drill it?
Gosh, there's a question. Especially since none of us out here have full knowledge of actually what was seen in the Lan wells, or that that matter Halifax or Lincoln/Warwick which are all relevant. And you are almost certainly asking for a reason.
Let me deal with the where & what, before the if.
Based on what I have seen there is no point drilling an injector. The reason I say that is because it would almost certainly simply cycle water directly and quickly to the connected fractures. If it doesn't intersect connected fractures then by definition it won't give pressure support. And if the aquifer is so disconnected that pressure support is required then it is a clue that the connected volumes (and choke to the aquifer) are so small that this field ain't economic. So in my opinion a water injector is not interesting as a target.
Gas volumes do not indicate a disposal problem. Pressure support would only be a concern at this case in the scenario where the field ain't economic. So in my opinion a gas disposal well in the crest is not interesting.
They are so on-the-ropes that a vertical OWC delineation well for step-out appraisal well would be problematic on a stand-alone basis. For OWC identification to unattributably occur you need to be real lucky with intersecting the right sort of fractures at the right depths, and getting the right info out of them. I could contemplate a drill vertical for appraisal then plug back and sidetrack into a producer scenario.
Trying to get a producer in has fewer targets than you might think. Given the likely (shallow) OWC, and given the need to stay underneath the draping seal, and given the desire to intersect fractures at particular orientations, and given the need to stay within the assured flowline distance, and given the preference (?) to re-use an existing tree & structure (i.e. the existing watered out well) then that gives a very few areas. If one is prepared to splurge on the new tree/flowline/etc (which, let's remember, has already been ordered, but could be resold 'as-new/unused' right now) then that widens the number of targets. In which case I'd consider how lucky I felt on the PI of the targets, bearing in mind the previous disappointments (because it has to flow enough to get flow assurance), and then step out as far as I felt lucky with to the north-ish, i.e. trying to understand what up-Rona in the Hal direction looks like. And to deliberately not have direct intersection with the existing fractures in production. And I would do that with a vertical that was then plugged back and (if showing good) sidetracked horizontal/inclined to as shallow as I could place it.
As to the if.
I don't think the OGA will sanction another well until all debts & decommissioning & etc is fully set aside; and a cracking drill-case put forwards. And I can't for the life of me think who feels brave enough to pay for it because it would almost certainly require extra cash. Unless of course the existing duo of wells have miraculously stopped increasing their watercut, have fully stabilised with no further pressure declines. And cash is rolling in enough to contemplate an AM FPSO extension. That is a lot of 6s to roll in a sequence. I can't see who would want to try, and why, in the current (macro, pro-renewables, secular O&G decline) climate given the extraction delays that are now baked-in to even a successful min-Lancaster scenario.
Good luck to any still holding. Personally I more than made up for HUR by way of my smaller TSLA stake, but I suspect I am in a minority.
regards, dspp
..to go from what was regarded at the time as perhaps real potential to virtually nothing....