The Lemon Fool

Crystal Amber lining up a takeover bid? They are closing in on a 30% shareholding in HUR, it seems.

Tinderboy wrote:It looks as if im closer to the 'T' shack coffee pot than you are.

So you have failed to name the operators or operating contractors who we know are not recruiting in any numbers of operating people at all.

Therefore failing to advise that, advise how many people on the boat have put in their notice in the past 6 weeks and how many are also going to do that by year end or so and not the usual I'm going to jack but are there to the bitter end crew.

Therefore failing to advise that, advise how many people on the boat have put in their notice in the past 6 weeks and how many are also going to do that by year end or so and not the usual I'm going to jack but are there to the bitter end crew.

That would be sensitive information, would it not?

So, i'm back in paper profit again after the share price has climbed to £6.60.

Seems a far cry from the 66p that they were just 9 months ago.

Funny old game.

HYD

Howyoudoin wrote:So, i'm back in paper profit again after the share price has climbed to £6.60.

Seems a far cry from the 66p that they were just 9 months ago.

Funny old game.

HYD

7p as I type. The downside risk is off the scale here. Only one for out and out gamblers?

BullDog wrote:

Howyoudoin wrote:So, i'm back in paper profit again after the share price has climbed to £6.60.

Seems a far cry from the 66p that they were just 9 months ago.

Funny old game.

HYD

7p as I type. The downside risk is off the scale here. Only one for out and out gamblers?

Yes apologies, I got my GBPs and GBXs mixed up!

HYD

Up to 8p as I speak and a paper profit of 33%.

Nothing like a war to get the oil shares soaring.

HYD

Does anyone know whether HUR sell their oil at the prevailing market price or at fixed prices set at intervals?

Clitheroekid wrote:Does anyone know whether HUR sell their oil at the prevailing market price or at fixed prices set at intervals?

BP are contracted to buy it, price set per off load from the FPSO. Sorry, don't know the details beyond that.

FabianBjornseth wrote:

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:

thehaggistrap wrote:

murraypaul wrote:The judgement is available on Bailii: https://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/Ch/2021/1759.html

I am no longer invested - however I am delighted to see the corrupt "Anthony Marris board" get a way deserved boot in the balls.
Hopefully they will soon be out of office. If they had any credibility they would resign now following that ruling.

Certainly Lancaster didn't perform as expected - however there is more to the story than that!

The simple fact of there being no resignations speaks volumes. They should be ashamed of themselves, but they won't be. They are going to draw every penny they can up to the second they are removed from office. A terrible display of running a publicly listed company.

RVF

Any sufficiently advanced level of incompetence is indistinguishable from corruption. When the plan was announced, I expected that there was no alternative for the business to carry on without the restructuring. That is clearly not the case, and the judge rightly dismissed the plan.

The prospects are still poor and rely on production from a single well supported by high oil prices, but it cannot be completely ruled out that some value could be left here.

Since last summer virtually everything has broken right for Hurricane investors, which was a requirement for any value to be salvaged:

• The oil price has remained high, with a particular windfall after the Ukraine war
• The ESP in the remaining well still works
• The facility uptime has remained high
• No apparent impact of producing below bubble-point on production to date
• Water cut increases, but not as fast as one may have feared

Of course, failure on point #2 may reverse fortunes overnight, but the chances of recovering value looks much better than last year. Happy for anyone who held on or took a punt when things looked grim.

FabianBjornseth wrote:

FabianBjornseth wrote:

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:

thehaggistrap wrote:

murraypaul wrote:The judgement is available on Bailii: https://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/Ch/2021/1759.html

I am no longer invested - however I am delighted to see the corrupt "Anthony Marris board" get a way deserved boot in the balls.
Hopefully they will soon be out of office. If they had any credibility they would resign now following that ruling.

Certainly Lancaster didn't perform as expected - however there is more to the story than that!

The simple fact of there being no resignations speaks volumes. They should be ashamed of themselves, but they won't be. They are going to draw every penny they can up to the second they are removed from office. A terrible display of running a publicly listed company.

RVF

Any sufficiently advanced level of incompetence is indistinguishable from corruption. When the plan was announced, I expected that there was no alternative for the business to carry on without the restructuring. That is clearly not the case, and the judge rightly dismissed the plan.

The prospects are still poor and rely on production from a single well supported by high oil prices, but it cannot be completely ruled out that some value could be left here.

Since last summer virtually everything has broken right for Hurricane investors, which was a requirement for any value to be salvaged:

• The oil price has remained high, with a particular windfall after the Ukraine war
• The ESP in the remaining well still works
• The facility uptime has remained high
• No apparent impact of producing below bubble-point on production to date
• Water cut increases, but not as fast as one may have feared

Of course, failure on point #2 may reverse fortunes overnight, but the chances of recovering value looks much better than last year. Happy for anyone who held on or took a punt when things looked grim.

Indeed! Remarkable turn around.

Water cut is increasing by around 1% per month, I think. I have no idea if it will continue on this slowly upwards trajectory or whether it will suddenly increase. I think the FPSO can handle around 30000 barrels a day liquids. So with 10000 barrels a day oil, they can stay at current levels of production until water cut becomes 65% of produced fluids or thereabouts?

Sometime ago now, there was an RNS saying one of the subsea pumps had shutdown due to suspected blockage. As far as I know, they are still running on just one subsea pump. There has never been an RNS stating the blockage was cleared and the pump was available again. As far as I know, it remains unserviceable. That puts the risk of pump failure induced production interruption very high. So far, they have been very lucky. They RNSd a trip on the active pump but that pump was able to restart. The production well was on natural flow during that period.

The subsea pumps will obviously be multiphase type. How much gas they are able to pump successfully and still deliver oil to the top sides, I don't know. I also don't know the ratio of oil to gas being produced. They could hit a pumping problem or even a flaring consent issue at anytime as far as I can see.

Anyway, HUR is definitely in better shape today than most people expected. Thanks.

With bonds about to be repaid next month HUR become investable again ?
Or am I crazy ? Having been burnt by Hurricane the first time round...

Some simple maths:
- Current market cap is £136 million
- Cash in bank is £130 million (company valued at cash in bank).
- Next month bonds are repaid (£75 million) and HUR are debt free
- Cash in bank for July 2022 forecast to be £70-90 million
- Going forward production is forecast to be 8000/bpd (240K per month)
- If company make $67 per barrel profit (opex $35 per barrel) then cash in bank increases at +£16 million per month
- HUR has ring fenced tax-losses of £380 million which could be attractive to any takeover bid.

Yes, lots of risks remain.
The company is entirely dependent on one well. The ESP could fail. Marris and the management are not be trusted <etc>
However once the bonds are repaid then the risks seems low ?
Fundamentally value of company will go up for as long as they can keep producing.

Yes, production could end at any time : however cash in bank seems to underpin the share price.
Current share price only assumes another 2 months production....
If company were to keep producing until November 2023 (as currently forecast) then cash in bank would be significant.

thehaggistrap wrote:With bonds about to be repaid next month HUR become investable again ?
Or am I crazy ? Having been burnt by Hurricane the first time round...

Some simple maths:
- Current market cap is £136 million
- Cash in bank is £130 million (company valued at cash in bank).
- Next month bonds are repaid (£75 million) and HUR are debt free
- Cash in bank for July 2022 forecast to be £70-90 million
- Going forward production is forecast to be 8000/bpd (240K per month)
- If company make $67 per barrel profit (opex $35 per barrel) then cash in bank increases at +£16 million per month
- HUR has ring fenced tax-losses of £380 million which could be attractive to any takeover bid.

Yes, lots of risks remain.
The company is entirely dependent on one well. The ESP could fail. Marris and the management are not be trusted <etc>
However once the bonds are repaid then the risks seems low ?
Fundamentally value of company will go up for as long as they can keep producing.

Yes, production could end at any time : however cash in bank seems to underpin the share price.
Current share price only assumes another 2 months production....
If company were to keep producing until November 2023 (as currently forecast) then cash in bank would be significant.

Having looked at recent RNSs and other stuff going on the answer to is HUR investable again? Is "no". Far from being an expert here, but it looks to me very much like the one producing well is in a slow death spiral with production now in the 8000's per day and water cut slowly inching towards 50%. At present rates then HUR are using about 50% of the FPSO fluids handling capability (from memory). I can see the day coming when the vessel is at full fluids handling capacity and uneconomic. I don't know where that point will be but it could arrive sooner than we think? I note that the other well was flowed recently at 96% water cut. It's a right off, but we knew that. So much for Trice's perched water. Remember that fairy story? The second submersible pump on the producing well, as far as the public are aware, is unserviceable. It has been out of service for a long time now. There has never been an RNS since it looked to be blocked and was taken out of service. Silence on that. Future drilling? No future plans, no drilling vessel booked, no time left now. Board of directors commitment? None hold any meaningful quantity shares in their own company. Antony Maris is the invisible man, it seems from the zero stakeholder engagement anyway.

Crystal Amber? The company is winding up due to the non continuation vote by shareholders. Where does that leave the private individuals who hold HUR shares? Good question. But no answer. We don't know what Crystal Amber plan to do with their HUR shares? What can they do other than sell their HUR stake?

The bond repayment? I imagine the bond holders will soon have a big sigh of relief when they get their money back. And then? I would count my lucky stars and run to the bank with the money.

Hurricane Energy - It's like red or black to me. I lost money first time around listening to Trices's smooth talk. Not for me again this one.

> with production now in the 8000's per day
Not many wells in North Sea producing at that rate...

> I can see the day coming when the vessel is at full fluids handling capacity and uneconomic
Forecast to be Nov 23

Some simple maths : Todays market cap = £125 million.
Likely cash in bank (after bonds repaid) = £ 90 million.
Company is generating £20 million / month profit....

Something doesn't add up ?

Debt free small oiler with $85 million cash and 8000 bopd.
Valued at just above market cap ?
Amazingly the come back is on.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"The repayment of the convertible bonds is an important and key milestone for Hurricane as we move into a new phase for the company, focusing on building a long-term future for the business and creating additional value for our shareholders. The excellent operational performance of the Lancaster field, for which I pay a huge tribute to our whole team, combined with high oil prices has underpinned the establishment of a strong financial platform for the company.
We continue our work to identify the most effective capital allocation opportunities both within and outside of our existing asset base, and which best fit within our growth plans in the context of both our own and the UK's transition goals.
I believe that Hurricane going forward is attractive to investors and well positioned to look for new growth opportunities. Our focus is on creating value for shareholders and we are being very rigorous in assessing which opportunities will best deliver that."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HUR/repayment ... t8rze.html

thehaggistrap wrote:Debt free small oiler with $85 million cash and 8000 bopd.
Valued at just above market cap ?
Amazingly the come back is on.

Possibly the most remarkable come back since John Darwin. I wonder if an upcoming CPR will suddenly rediscover the several hundred millions of barrels of crude that mysteriously evaporated a while ago Judge Zacaroli was a very astute individual. I wonder how many shares he bought at <1p

^ Exactly... I lost more than I care to admit on Hurricane the first time round.
However I am back in for the end game I reckon the "tax losses + cash in back + £20 million/month profit" makes them ripe for a takeover.

The raw numbers look good. No debt.
If Lancaster keep producing until Nov 23 as predicted the cash pile will be huge.

It's been a remarkable outcome, and all HUR shareholders owe a huge debt of gratitude to Crystal Amber Fund, who had the cojones (and the cash) to fight the defeatist proposals put forward by HUR's useless board at the time.

And thanks are also due to Mr Justice Zacaroli, who had the courage and good sense to rule against a proposed restructuring plan for the first time in English legal history:

https://www.rosenblatt-law.co.uk/insigh ... and-small/

But although the outcome has been a great victory in principle for small shareholders it's still far from clear what the future holds, and I'm in a constant dilemma as to whether I should sell now, and be grateful to get back far more than I had ever expected, or to hang on in the hope of actually breaking even - or, impossible as it may seem, actually making a profit!

Clitheroekid wrote:It's been a remarkable outcome, and all HUR shareholders owe a huge debt of gratitude to Crystal Amber Fund, who had the cojones (and the cash) to fight the defeatist proposals put forward by HUR's useless board at the time.

And thanks are also due to Mr Justice Zacaroli, who had the courage and good sense to rule against a proposed restructuring plan for the first time in English legal history:

https://www.rosenblatt-law.co.uk/insigh ... and-small/

But although the outcome has been a great victory in principle for small shareholders it's still far from clear what the future holds, and I'm in a constant dilemma as to whether I should sell now, and be grateful to get back far more than I had ever expected, or to hang on in the hope of actually breaking even - or, impossible as it may seem, actually making a profit!

You're pretty much wholly in the hands of Richard Bernstein there. Crystal Amber have to liquidate their portfolio and hand the proceeds back to their shareholders soon. Holding just under 30% of the HUR shares which, due to his trading of the stock cost him nothing, Mr Bernstein is odds on going to decide what happens next?