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Coal matters

tjh290633
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Re: Coal matters

#232405

Postby tjh290633 » June 27th, 2019, 8:31 pm

That graph implies a reduction from about 220GWh to about 60GWh over that period. Looks unlikely to me.

TJH

dspp
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Re: Coal matters

#232424

Postby dspp » June 27th, 2019, 10:23 pm

tjh290633 wrote:That graph implies a reduction from about 220GWh to about 60GWh over that period. Looks unlikely to me.

TJH


I suggest you challenge the US government as to the veracity of their own statistics then. For the USA it looks about right to me mind you.

- dspp

JoyofBrex8889
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Re: Coal matters

#232446

Postby JoyofBrex8889 » June 28th, 2019, 4:12 am

I was sceptical but coal use really is reducing in the west.

Unfortunately coal demand is still higher now than ever, due to increased industrial use in China.

So this is good news, but the reality remains that in 2019 humanity will burn more coal than ever before.

BP energy outlook does have the growth in use flatlining and eventually possibly declining but usage remains at an insanely high level of over 3500 Mtoe into the 2040s.

tjh290633
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Re: Coal matters

#232499

Postby tjh290633 » June 28th, 2019, 10:45 am

dspp wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:That graph implies a reduction from about 220GWh to about 60GWh over that period. Looks unlikely to me.

TJH


I suggest you challenge the US government as to the veracity of their own statistics then. For the USA it looks about right to me mind you.

- dspp

I don't dispute the fall in coal usage, nor the increase in renewables. Something else is missing and I suspect that gas from fracking is what fills the gap.

TJH

dspp
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Re: Coal matters

#232582

Postby dspp » June 28th, 2019, 4:04 pm

US gas and coal courtesy John Kemp Reuters
https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/c ... 202019.pdf

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Re: Coal matters

#232583

Postby dspp » June 28th, 2019, 4:08 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
dspp wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:That graph implies a reduction from about 220GWh to about 60GWh over that period. Looks unlikely to me.

TJH


I suggest you challenge the US government as to the veracity of their own statistics then. For the USA it looks about right to me mind you.

- dspp

I don't dispute the fall in coal usage, nor the increase in renewables. Something else is missing and I suspect that gas from fracking is what fills the gap.

TJH


See https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39412

At the moment (in the USA) renewables are backing out coal. To an extent it is a combined attack by renewables + gas on coal. At least that is what I read in the data. After that I expect they will start backing out nuclear, then finally gas.

regards, dspp

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Re: Coal matters

#232588

Postby tjh290633 » June 28th, 2019, 4:16 pm

dspp wrote:
See https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39412

At the moment (in the USA) renewables are backing out coal. To an extent it is a combined attack by renewables + gas on coal. At least that is what I read in the data. After that I expect they will start backing out nuclear, then finally gas.

regards, dspp

And the best of luck with that tactic.

TJH

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Re: Coal matters

#243173

Postby CommissarJones » August 9th, 2019, 11:34 pm

The largest coal-fired power plant in the US state of Pennsylvania is closing 19 months ahead of schedule.

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Re: Coal matters

#263685

Postby dspp » November 12th, 2019, 10:47 am

Coal being backed out by renewables, amongst other things in India

https://www.reuters.com/article/column- ... SL4N27S13C

"And coal generation actually fell by 12,500 gigawatt hours (GWh) in the first seven months of the fiscal year, compared with the same period last year, IEEFA said.

In the meantime, generation from all non-coal sources, which include solar, hydro, wind and natural gas, rose by 24,000 GWh, or 8.4%, over the same period, the report said."


but lots of other factors in play as well.

regards, dspp

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Re: Coal matters

#274557

Postby dspp » January 2nd, 2020, 10:47 am

Political pressure on coal in India due to pollution (smog) concerns. Short term pressure is to keep the lights on.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indi ... SKBN1Z01VD

Longer term solar and wind are the solution for India and are now getting the bulk of the investment

https://www.independent.co.uk/environme ... 21961.html

- dspp

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Re: Coal matters

#279703

Postby dspp » January 24th, 2020, 2:23 pm

EIA projects less than a quarter of the world’s electricity generated from coal by 2050
+ renewables will be almost half of the world’s electricity generation in 2050.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42555

thanks to John Kemp Reuters
dspp

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Re: Coal matters

#279719

Postby feste » January 24th, 2020, 3:02 pm

Hi all,

Despite these positive developments, the overall outlook remains pretty depressing : China currently gets 60% of its energy from COAL and is forecast STILL to be getting 30% + from COAL in 2050, see hxxps://www.smart-energy.com/industry-s ... 50-report/.

And - barring Armageddon - that 30-35% COAL projected usage in the overall mix will be in the context of way higher energy consumption than we see today. IE suggests that in all likelihood, burning as much coal as they do today, if not more.....;-<

ATB

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Re: Coal matters

#285615

Postby dspp » February 20th, 2020, 10:55 am

again courtesy John Kemp Reuters

"If there was one major theme at this week’s annual industry gathering, Coaltrans India, held in the resort state of Goa, it was that the domestic coal sector is under siege, and probably faces a future of limited growth and eventual disbandment. Rather than politics, the reason is largely economic, with power purchase agreements (PPAs) for renewables now coming in at levels at which even existing coal-fired plants cannot compete."

https://www.reuters.com/article/column- ... NKBN20E0C9

regards, dspp

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Re: Coal matters

#292327

Postby dspp » March 19th, 2020, 12:45 pm

"U.S. coal exports declined in 2019"

US IEA here https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43195

One can imagine they will decline further in 2020 when reading the article. A significant number of mines are surely terminally uneconomic now.

regards, dspp

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Re: Coal matters

#307890

Postby dspp » May 12th, 2020, 10:37 am

US coal at 42-year low in 2019

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43675

also coal plant utlisation factors down to 48%. Pretty soon they will have lower utilisation factors than wind.

- dspp

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Re: Coal matters

#316756

Postby Itsallaguess » June 9th, 2020, 1:14 pm

Britain goes coal free as renewables edge out fossil fuels -

Britain is about to pass a significant landmark - at midnight on Wednesday it will have gone two full months without burning coal to generate power.

A decade ago about 40% of the country's electricity came from coal; coronavirus is part of the story, but far from all.

When Britain went into lockdown, electricity demand plummeted; the National Grid responded by taking power plants off the network. The four remaining coal-fired plants were among the first to be shut down. The last coal generator came off the system at midnight on 9 April. No coal has been burnt for electricity since.

The current coal-free period smashes the previous record of 18 days, 6 hours and 10 minutes which was set in June last year.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52973089

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

spasmodicus
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Re: Coal matters

#317162

Postby spasmodicus » June 10th, 2020, 12:41 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:Britain goes coal free as renewables edge out fossil fuels -

Britain is about to pass a significant landmark - at midnight on Wednesday it will have gone two full months without burning coal to generate power.

A decade ago about 40% of the country's electricity came from coal; coronavirus is part of the story, but far from all.

When Britain went into lockdown, electricity demand plummeted; the National Grid responded by taking power plants off the network. The four remaining coal-fired plants were among the first to be shut down. The last coal generator came off the system at midnight on 9 April. No coal has been burnt for electricity since.

The current coal-free period smashes the previous record of 18 days, 6 hours and 10 minutes which was set in June last year.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52973089

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


but reflect on the fact that about 8% of the UK's electric power comes from biomass, aka wood pellets mostly shipped across from the USA, e.g. Drax power station in Yorkshire, which was converted from using coal, to not many cheers from environmentalists.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/16/converting-coal-plants-to-biomass-could-fuel-climate-crisis-scientists-warn


regards,
S

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Re: Coal matters

#324209

Postby 88V8 » July 6th, 2020, 10:58 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
New coal-fired power plant approvals and post-Covid CO2 emissions are surging

Oh dear.
But I think it quite suits many western govts to appear virtuous by exporting their emissions to China, so one can hardly blame the Chinese for using the cheapest energy sources available. I don't think we'll see too many 'stranded assets' in China.

V8

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Re: Coal matters

#326011

Postby dspp » July 14th, 2020, 11:24 am

"China’s central state planner urged miners to boost domestic coal output and storage to ensure sufficient energy supplies during the peak summer season, while asking local authorities to maintain coal import restrictions."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN24E0RA

Looks like they are trying to drive for domestic suppliers, and still cracking down on the smaller / less legal mines.

- dspp

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Re: Coal matters

#327938

Postby dspp » July 22nd, 2020, 1:34 pm

Europe steams towards coal exit
In Spain, coal generation fell 58% in the first six months of the year, even before half its remaining plants closed in June
In Portugal, coal generation fell 95% in the first half of 2020, Ember said. Last week major utility EDP brought forward its Iberian plant closures to 2021, after writing down their value last year.
The Netherlands, Austria and France all saw reductions of more than 50%.
Sweden and Austria closed their last plants in March.


etc

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-europ ... KKCN24M32C

- dspp


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