sg31 wrote:nimnarb wrote:
Sure many of you are watching or have watched as our portfolios have shrunk somewhat. Well two weeks ago I decided against my better nature as history is not on my side, to go mostly into cash. Didn't feel quite right as just new that the Orange one here would do all it takes not to see the market tank, but the "this time it's different scenario" and seeing what is going on all around us, felt preservation of capital was more important as dont have another 20 plus years to go and felt I would get another chance..started swing trading the last few days and did quite well but just dont have the time, stomach or inclination for that game anymore.
Two days ago went about 80% and just watched as the US market went up 11 plus percent and as I write its up again and watching those stocks that I didnt fully get back in(as I thought I would get a far better price) start to run away again.
Said to my wife, well my luck or timing it just never is right is it. She looked at me and said(after 47 years of being together), "In my eyes, you are always right". Had a shiver go through me and turned CNBC and the talking money heads off. Puts it all into perspective doesn't it.
I don't think this is the end of it. The stimulus will be old news soon and and if America lets this virus run out of control they won't know what's hit them. I spend a lot of time on North American bulletin boards, I had a lot invested over there at one time and made some good 'friends' so I call in every day.
The amount of posts still saying it's all a hoax, the figures are all false, 'god has got this' and let the old pepple die for the sake of the country testify to the ignorance that abounds over there. The boards *I use are all investment related so this isn't thick red necks we are talking about, most are wealthy educated people. To me thay seem to be sociopaths but then I'm an English pinko commie person with no father.
Obviously they aren't all like that but a surprising number are. When this get's real I think there will be a leg down that will dwarf whats gone before. They are too late reacting, their lock downs are even more of a joke than ours.
I'm no expert, form your own opinion. If I'm wrong I will preserve my capital but miss a golden opportunity. I don't really care because if I'm wrong a lot of people will be alive compared to what I think is going to happen.
I live in SW Florida. Many retail stores are open. Traffic down but not a lot. Restaurants are closed(until end of March) but doing take-aways. Last week if you saw the Spring-Breakers here in their droves you wouldn't think anything was wrong. Don't want to get political but when I hear back to work by Easter as opposed to the Governor of NY pleading for help, its just beyond my comprehension. I always watch the BBC World News and compare to one of our news channels and you really would think we are on two different planets. They have been coming down to our area in droves from NY, albeit The Florida Governor stating once they hit Florida they will have to self-isolate. Yeah right!! The planes are full coming into Orlando. The rich are escaping to the Hamptons, preferably with 10 plus acres and prepared to pay one year in advance. Real Estate Agents within that area have never seen anything like it with rental prices being jacked up to 5 times the usual amount. Trump is allowing each Governor or Mayor in various states to decide on whats best for their people. This morning went to Publix, like your Tesco, as they had a seniors early morning 7-8am opening. Had gloves and mask on and then got home and spent more time disinfecting everything than I did putting it all away. Also no TP, wipes, etc in sight on the shelves but luckily got the last lot that I need from Amazon about 3 weeks ago. No wonder I am having nightmares, in just a short two months, the whole world it seems has been turned upside down. Anyway, like you I feel that this has been a huge dead cat bounce and yet they state, its all been factored and even with the employment numbers out tomorrow(1.5 to 2 mill?) "not to worry, as its all gravy baby from now on"....
and "a few deaths here and there with a bad..Ok, very bad case of Flu, is not going to stop the greatest, yes the greatest Country in the world from having the biggest V shape recovery you have ever seen. Oh(just reported on Fox News) and you might get another form of Covid-19X next year after you have recovered but don't worry, you be immune, not sure about the other chap though!!!