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Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

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servodude
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322683

Postby servodude » June 30th, 2020, 3:32 am

redsturgeon wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
johnhemming wrote:Yes ... it was no. I have not listened to the BBC podcast.


I suggest you break your rule for once, or you will be missing out on hearing a mathematician statistician very convincingly explaining how what appears at first sight to be impossible, is in fact, the case.


I haven't heard this podcast, do you have a link.

John


Don't know if bbc links survive this type of pasting but hopefully it's here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p08bqjmt
- starting at ~8:19

crux is if you're using the wrong average for the time from infection to death you will overestimate the time it takes because the distribution is skewed towards the earlier times
- makes the whole thing balanced by bawhairs
enough so that if I see a statement of certainty around this I tend to suspect politics/hope/begging the question

- sd

sg31
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322717

Postby sg31 » June 30th, 2020, 10:22 am

Current state of play in respect of vaccines....

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/a ... te-june-29

ElectronicFur
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322722

Postby ElectronicFur » June 30th, 2020, 10:34 am

scotia wrote:
csearle wrote:If one is to believe the Oxford epidemiologists the thing has probably, largely passed through our society. It is on its way out. The international data confirm this according to them. So long as one protects the vulnerable until the vestigial virus left is really tiny then we might as well let the lockdown finish right now and spare ourselves the downside of it. No chance of a second peak.

Chris
(Referring to Professor Gupta of Oxford University)

I have not read any of Professor Gupta's pronouncements, so I apologise if I am mis-interpreting them from the above summary.
However this view seems to be entirely at odds with the random sampling of Covid-19 antibodies that has taken place, and which discovered antibodies in less than 10% of the populace. So if we are to believe that Covid-19 has swept through almost the whole UK population, then we apparently need to believe that most of the population is immune to Covid-19 without developing antibodies. Would this be unique for a viral infection?


This thread by Professor Francois Balloux is informative:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1277 ... 35553.html

ElectronicFur
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322727

Postby ElectronicFur » June 30th, 2020, 10:53 am

Here in Wales on the 13th of June, the number of deaths was already below the 5 year average for the Aneurin Bevan University Health Board, as taken from their confidential briefing paper.

The latest ONS data, released today, shows this is now true for England & Wales. The mortality rate in England & Wales is now less than 5-year average.

Yet our children are denied education.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322732

Postby scotia » June 30th, 2020, 11:08 am

ElectronicFur wrote:
This thread by Professor Francois Balloux is informative:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1277 ... 35553.html

Many thanks for that link. It was informative, without apparently taking any sides.
However it does reinforce my thoughts (and I stress thoughts) that T-cells are not a source which has led to large scale immunity to Covd-19. Since the author stresses that T cell immunity is extremely long lasting, then such immunity, possibly picked up from other Corona Viruses (Common Cold) should be stronger in the older populace who have experienced more such infections. The opposite seems to be the case. And the recent paper (link posted previously) which (on a small sample) identified T Cells specifically active in Covid-19 infections, also reported that these were found in only 2 out of 10 healthy persons - further backs up my thoughts.
I think that optimism is overcoming realism among those who propose that Covid-19 has already swept through the entire UK population.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322738

Postby scotia » June 30th, 2020, 11:20 am

ElectronicFur wrote:Here in Wales on the 13th of June, the number of deaths was already below the 5 year average for the Aneurin Bevan University Health Board, as taken from their confidential briefing paper.

The latest ONS data, released today, shows this is now true for England & Wales. The mortality rate in England & Wales is now less than 5-year average.

Excellent news. And we should expect to see a dip under the 5 year average, due to a significant fraction of the Covid-19 deaths over the past few months being among the elderly and unwell.
ElectronicFur wrote:Yet our children are denied education.

Why not adopt the Scottish school system - Summer holidays have commenced, and its back-to-school in Mid August. By that time, if we have been sensible, the infection rate will have dropped further, and we may be able to return to more normal teaching practices.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322747

Postby ElectronicFur » June 30th, 2020, 11:57 am

scotia wrote:Why not adopt the Scottish school system - Summer holidays have commenced, and its back-to-school in Mid August. By that time, if we have been sensible, the infection rate will have dropped further, and we may be able to return to more normal teaching practices.


Current guidance from Welsh government states schools are to continue 1-day-a-week school with "blended" learning in September.

Scottish government's intention was the same until parents pressured them to u-turn.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322749

Postby ursaminortaur » June 30th, 2020, 12:07 pm

Local lockdown imposed in Leicester.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-update-live-tips-symptoms-news-deaths-cases-latest-a9592596.html

Non-essential shops have shut again in Leicester and schools will close to most pupils from Thursday after the government ordered the first local lockdown amid a rise in coronavirus cases.

The city will now not see the further easing of lockdown planned for the rest of England from Saturday, health secretary Matt Hancock said. Labour has demanded a No 10 press conference to explain the lockdown, following claims of delays in reacting to the emergence of new cases and a failure to communicate with local civic leaders.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322752

Postby swill453 » June 30th, 2020, 12:16 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:Local lockdown imposed in Leicester.

Pubs in the surrounding villages should prepare themselves to be a bit busy on Saturday then. Or are there going to be roadblocks and barricades?

Scott.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322753

Postby jfgw » June 30th, 2020, 12:24 pm

ElectronicFur wrote:Here in Wales on the 13th of June, the number of deaths was already below the 5 year average for the Aneurin Bevan University Health Board, as taken from their confidential briefing paper.

The latest ONS data, released today, shows this is now true for England & Wales. The mortality rate in England & Wales is now less than 5-year average.

Yet our children are denied education.


Cholera has been eradicated in the UK (except for people who have been abroad and caught it there) so let's start pooing in our drinking water again.

I accept that evidence is fuzzy as to what effect the lockdown has had. I would expect a reduced (or delayed) death rate to show up as differences between people with different occupations with different levels of interpersonal interraction. However, while there is some positive correlation,
This analysis does not prove conclusively that the observed rates of death involving COVID-19 are necessarily caused by differences in occupational exposure; we adjusted for age, but not for other factors such as ethnic group and place of residence.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... d25may2020

One questions to what degree we should take chances in a "don't know" situation such as this.


Julian F. G. W.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322783

Postby ElectronicFur » June 30th, 2020, 2:25 pm

jfgw wrote:One questions to what degree we should take chances in a "don't know" situation such as this.


"Better safe than sorry" applies to children's education and mental health too...

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322807

Postby jfgw » June 30th, 2020, 4:22 pm

ElectronicFur wrote:
jfgw wrote:One questions to what degree we should take chances in a "don't know" situation such as this.


"Better safe than sorry" applies to children's education and mental health too...


The problem is getting the balance right when you don't know the sizes of the weights. Missing education can have long-term effects, but so can dying or some of the other outcomes of covid-19. The risk of turning schools into virus distribution hubs might seem much lower than that of meat processing plants but that risk needs to be considered. (Children would probably understand a "no shouting" rule better than some factory workers.)


Julian F. G. W.

scotia
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322816

Postby scotia » June 30th, 2020, 5:11 pm

ElectronicFur wrote:
scotia wrote:Why not adopt the Scottish school system - Summer holidays have commenced, and its back-to-school in Mid August. By that time, if we have been sensible, the infection rate will have dropped further, and we may be able to return to more normal teaching practices.


Current guidance from Welsh government states schools are to continue 1-day-a-week school with "blended" learning in September.

Scottish government's intention was the same until parents pressured them to u-turn.

No need to pressure the Scottish Government. In Scottish state schools, holidays traditionally start now!
And we now have breathing space to work out what is sensible, come Mid-August.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322850

Postby Mike4 » June 30th, 2020, 10:19 pm

Right now, some interesting new info.

Firstly, keeping an eye on sewage can give us advanced warning of C-19 infection areas, according the Dr John Campbell.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LCRBqmQxv0

And secondly, possibly some earthquake news on the source of the virus. Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 has been found, according to Reuters, in Barcelona sewage water in March 2019. Yes 2019.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN23X2HQ

So the possibility of C-19 originating in Spain rather than China sure lets China right off the hook, dunnit!

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322876

Postby servodude » July 1st, 2020, 1:30 am

Mike4 wrote:Right now, some interesting new info.

Firstly, keeping an eye on sewage can give us advanced warning of C-19 infection areas, according the Dr John Campbell.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LCRBqmQxv0

And secondly, possibly some earthquake news on the source of the virus. Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 has been found, according to Reuters, in Barcelona sewage water in March 2019. Yes 2019.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN23X2HQ

So the possibility of C-19 originating in Spain rather than China sure lets China right off the hook, dunnit!


Sheesh!
What's Trump going to call the "Kung Flu" now that it comes from Spain?
this could get confusing quickly

- sd

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322914

Postby Howard » July 1st, 2020, 10:03 am

servodude wrote:
Sheesh!
What's Trump going to call the "Kung Flu" now that it comes from Spain?
this could get confusing quickly

- sd


La Macarona? ;)

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322917

Postby ursaminortaur » July 1st, 2020, 10:11 am

servodude wrote:
Mike4 wrote:Right now, some interesting new info.

Firstly, keeping an eye on sewage can give us advanced warning of C-19 infection areas, according the Dr John Campbell.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LCRBqmQxv0

And secondly, possibly some earthquake news on the source of the virus. Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 has been found, according to Reuters, in Barcelona sewage water in March 2019. Yes 2019.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN23X2HQ

So the possibility of C-19 originating in Spain rather than China sure lets China right off the hook, dunnit!


Sheesh!
What's Trump going to call the "Kung Flu" now that it comes from Spain?
this could get confusing quickly

- sd


It would just even things up a bit - after all the one place we are pretty sure the 1918 Spanish Flu didn't start is Spain.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322930

Postby oldapple » July 1st, 2020, 11:11 am

Love the humour in some of the posts. I thought I'd highlight this report from BBC's Fergus Walsh. It shows how much the corona virus affects the brain as well as the respiratory system, and how much the specialists have and are still learning about it. One very seriously ill (highly educated) patient makes a remarkable and unexpected recovery.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53081022

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322932

Postby UncleEbenezer » July 1st, 2020, 11:22 am

oldapple wrote:Love the humour in some of the posts. I thought I'd highlight this report from BBC's Fergus Walsh. It shows how much the corona virus affects the brain as well as the respiratory system, and how much the specialists have and are still learning about it. One very seriously ill (highly educated) patient makes a remarkable and unexpected recovery.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53081022


That's genuinely interesting - thanks. And (insofar as a single case can) seems to hint at why heart conditions showed up ahead of respiratory conditions as a risk factor in the early reporting.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#322933

Postby Mike4 » July 1st, 2020, 11:24 am

ursaminortaur wrote:
servodude wrote:
Mike4 wrote:Right now, some interesting new info.

Firstly, keeping an eye on sewage can give us advanced warning of C-19 infection areas, according the Dr John Campbell.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LCRBqmQxv0

And secondly, possibly some earthquake news on the source of the virus. Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 has been found, according to Reuters, in Barcelona sewage water in March 2019. Yes 2019.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN23X2HQ

So the possibility of C-19 originating in Spain rather than China sure lets China right off the hook, dunnit!


Sheesh!
What's Trump going to call the "Kung Flu" now that it comes from Spain?
this could get confusing quickly

- sd


It would just even things up a bit - after all the one place we are pretty sure the 1918 Spanish Flu didn't start is Spain.

Yes carry on the trend, kung 'flu perhaps didn't originate in China! The thing I find most curious about all this is how uninterested the authorities and researchers seem to be in identifying the origin of SARS-CoV-2. Other than these researchers in Spain, that is.

It's almost as though they already know the answer but it needs keeping under wraps - for political reasons perhaps - hence the way we are all encouraged to believe vague assertions it started in a live meat market in China. Assertions which don't really stand up to close examination, according to some.

One thing supporting the idea that it originated in a China meat market is the way China itself is not loudly and aggressively denying it. So either China agrees it is true, or it suits them too for everyone to believe it.


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