redsturgeon wrote:Mike4 wrote:johnhemming wrote:Yes ... it was no. I have not listened to the BBC podcast.
I suggest you break your rule for once, or you will be missing out on hearing a mathematician statistician very convincingly explaining how what appears at first sight to be impossible, is in fact, the case.
I haven't heard this podcast, do you have a link.
Don't know if bbc links survive this type of pasting but hopefully it's here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p08bqjmt
- starting at ~8:19
crux is if you're using the wrong average for the time from infection to death you will overestimate the time it takes because the distribution is skewed towards the earlier times
- makes the whole thing balanced by bawhairs
enough so that if I see a statement of certainty around this I tend to suspect politics/hope/begging the question