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Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

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Lootman
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348475

Postby Lootman » October 17th, 2020, 2:21 pm

XFool wrote:
Lootman wrote:
NeilW wrote:A groupthink then, since there is little understanding of what reality actually is at the moment. Cases have shot up since the 24th July when masks were introduced. Yet the response of the groupthink is to do it harder and longer and tell people they're not doing it right, rather than ask questions about the effectiveness of the entire approach compared to the Swedish alternative.

How correct were the experts about the Lipid Hyopthesis? How correct are the 'experts' about anything. Why is Ferguson still in a job despite being utterly wrong several times in a row? Because he's a silver tongued individual with good connections?

I find it very amusing that circumstantial evidence pieces published in supposed scientific journals in favour of the groupthink is prematurely extrapolated and jumped on, despite not being replicated studies in any way shape or form. Yet circumstantial evidence pieces in the other direction are dismissed with a wave of the hand.

This isn't science. It's Scientism. A persuasion technique that started in the social sciences and, regrettably, appears to be drifting into the life sciences.

Appeal to expert is a logical fallacy. You don't know they are experts. Until validated by replicated experiment they are soothsayers.

Nicely phrased. If anyone watched the Channel Four news last night you could add that to the body of evidence that says that if you ask ten experts you will get ten different opinions. There was a SAGE "expert" and a Barrington "expert" arguing their respectful but contrary points. Both sounded credible and plausible, but they can't both be right.

Exactly.

P.S. Though liked the way you used an example of TWO opposed "experts" to jump to the conclusion that if you had ten experts there would be ten differing opinions!

I'd need a reason to believe that wasn't true based on my personal experience of listening to experts (or specialists as they sometimes like to call themselves).

PinkDalek
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348477

Postby PinkDalek » October 17th, 2020, 2:25 pm

zico wrote:Number of Covid deaths in Vietnam - 0. Yes, zero, nada, zilch, nobody. ...
Here's some highlights from the Vietnam approach, with a longer link [?] in the quotes below.


You didn't provide a link to the lengthy extracts but is this your source?:

https://blogs.worldbank.org/health/containing-coronavirus-covid-19-lessons-vietnam

If so, it may be worth noting it was dated 30 April 2020. Since then there have been reported deaths in Vietnam. Not many but I think 35 when I last looked. Even so, I hope the count continues to be extremely low.

johnhemming
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348478

Postby johnhemming » October 17th, 2020, 2:44 pm

Much that the data on Worldometers is not that high quality it does give a deaths per million column on which their summary can be sorted.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Thailand, PNG, Sri Langar, Vietnam, Taiwan, Tanzania, Burundi, Gibraltar, Eritrea, Mongolia, Bhutan, Cambodia and Laos all seem largish countries under 1 death per million (in the order going down).

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348479

Postby XFool » October 17th, 2020, 2:45 pm

PinkDalek wrote:You didn't provide a link to the lengthy extracts but is this your source?:

https://blogs.worldbank.org/health/containing-coronavirus-covid-19-lessons-vietnam

If so, it may be worth noting it was dated 30 April 2020. Since then there have been reported deaths in Vietnam. Not many but I think 35 when I last looked. Even so, I hope the count continues to be extremely low.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/viet-nam/

XFool
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348484

Postby XFool » October 17th, 2020, 3:19 pm

NeilW wrote:
XFool wrote:1. From the consensus of other, appropriate, experts

2. From reality

A groupthink then, since there is little understanding of what reality actually is at the moment. Cases have shot up since the 24th of July when masks were introduced. Yet the response of the groupthink is to do it harder and longer and tell people they're not doing it right, rather than ask questions about the effectiveness of the entire approach compared to the Swedish alternative.

How correct were the experts about the Lipid Hypothesis? How correct are the 'experts' really? Why is Ferguson still in a job despite being utterly wrong several times in a row? Because he's a silver-tongued individual with good connections?

I find it very amusing that circumstantial evidence pieces published in supposed scientific journals in favour of the groupthink are prematurely extrapolated and jumped on, despite not being replicated studies in any way shape or form. Yet circumstantial evidence pieces in the other direction are dismissed with a wave of the hand.

This isn't science. It's Scientism. A persuasion technique that started in the social sciences and, regrettably, appears to be drifting into the life sciences.

Appeal to expert is a logical fallacy. You don't know they are experts. Until validated by replicated experiment they are soothsayers.

I propose coining a neologism of my own: 'Alternativism'

PinkDalek
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348485

Postby PinkDalek » October 17th, 2020, 3:26 pm

XFool wrote:
PinkDalek wrote:You didn't provide a link to the lengthy extracts but is this your source?:

https://blogs.worldbank.org/health/containing-coronavirus-covid-19-lessons-vietnam

If so, it may be worth noting it was dated 30 April 2020. Since then there have been reported deaths in Vietnam. Not many but I think 35 when I last looked. Even so, I hope the count continues to be extremely low.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/viet-nam/


Yes, that's where I looked but not '0. Yes, zero, nada, zilch, nobody'.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348486

Postby XFool » October 17th, 2020, 3:32 pm

XFool wrote:I propose coining a neologism of my own: 'Alternativism'

Foiled again! :(

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/alternativism

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348487

Postby zico » October 17th, 2020, 3:35 pm

PinkDalek wrote:
XFool wrote:
PinkDalek wrote:You didn't provide a link to the lengthy extracts but is this your source?:

https://blogs.worldbank.org/health/containing-coronavirus-covid-19-lessons-vietnam

If so, it may be worth noting it was dated 30 April 2020. Since then there have been reported deaths in Vietnam. Not many but I think 35 when I last looked. Even so, I hope the count continues to be extremely low.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/viet-nam/


Yes, that's where I looked but not '0. Yes, zero, nada, zilch, nobody'.


Yes, you're right, the World Bank article was my source. I didn't spot it was dated end-April.
But the basic point remains unchanged, as Vietnam has had 35 covid deaths, and here we're currently having 35+ deaths in every 12-hour period.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348488

Postby dealtn » October 17th, 2020, 3:41 pm

zico wrote:
PinkDalek wrote:


Yes, that's where I looked but not '0. Yes, zero, nada, zilch, nobody'.


Yes, you're right, the World Bank article was my source. I didn't spot it was dated end-April.
But the basic point remains unchanged, as Vietnam has had 35 covid deaths, and here we're currently having 35+ deaths in every 12-hour period.


I suspect its very much easier to have no, or few, deaths if it's not in your country to start with. Don't get me wrong, what such countries have done, and continue to do is of great merit, but that's not to say you could replicate that success from where we currently are, nor arguably where the UK has been at any point since the extremely early days.

Of course that isn't to say there aren't lessons we could still learn, and you would hope that, like in many things in life, we should be looking for and adopting "best practice".

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348489

Postby zico » October 17th, 2020, 3:44 pm

If you want a simple and cheap answer to tackling coronavirus, here it is - "nasal irrigation". Here's a link.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health ... r-BB14aOJi

Here's a more conventional article, which misses out nasal irrigation, but includes boring stuff about masks, quarantines and not accepting tourists from Covid hot-spots. Also talks about economic damage to Thailand.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/thailands ... c-failure/

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348496

Postby johnhemming » October 17th, 2020, 4:24 pm

Hospital admissions up from 706 to 792 most regions up.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348524

Postby NeilW » October 17th, 2020, 7:30 pm

zico wrote:From the above possibilities. I'm not at all sure that introducing masks is the main factor in the increase in cases.


That's precisely the same approach that was used for their introduction though wasn't it. There was a ton of confounding factors, yet they were all ignored because of the rather naive micro logic of masks.

So why is premature extrapolation good in one direction, but not the other?

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348525

Postby NeilW » October 17th, 2020, 7:34 pm

XFool wrote:"Public compliance with precaution measures, including social distancing, is high." - I wonder if this is the key factor?


I suspect being an unreconstructed communist dictatorship is the key factor in Vietnam.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348526

Postby XFool » October 17th, 2020, 7:42 pm

NeilW wrote:
XFool wrote:"Public compliance with precaution measures, including social distancing, is high." - I wonder if this is the key factor?

I suspect being an unreconstructed communist dictatorship is the key factor in Vietnam.

But it's all about the science, isn't it?

:lol:

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348527

Postby langley59 » October 17th, 2020, 7:50 pm

dealtn wrote:I suspect its very much easier to have no, or few, deaths if it's not in your country to start with. Don't get me wrong, what such countries have done, and continue to do is of great merit, but that's not to say you could replicate that success from where we currently are, nor arguably where the UK has been at any point since the extremely early days.

Yes we may never have got into the situation we are in if sensible controls over entry to the UK had been taken in the early days. Even I as a lockdown/mask sceptic was flabbergasted at the number of flights landing at Heathrow from virus hotspots like Wuhan, Milan and Tehran. Its almost as though they wanted to seed it in the UK.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348528

Postby XFool » October 17th, 2020, 7:57 pm

langley59 wrote:
dealtn wrote:I suspect its very much easier to have no, or few, deaths if it's not in your country to start with. Don't get me wrong, what such countries have done, and continue to do is of great merit, but that's not to say you could replicate that success from where we currently are, nor arguably where the UK has been at any point since the extremely early days.

Yes we may never have got into the situation we are in if sensible controls over entry to the UK had been taken in the early days. Even I as a lockdown/mask sceptic was flabbergasted at the number of flights landing at Heathrow from virus hotspots like Wuhan, Milan and Tehran. Its almost as though they wanted to seed it in the UK.

My memory is that, at first, people arriving - at least those arriving home - were taken to places of isolation. But this stopped at some point. Presumably when it had already 'escaped' into the community. I cannot remember now, but assume that was not too long before the lockdown was imposed.

This thread only started with lockdown.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348530

Postby johnhemming » October 17th, 2020, 8:09 pm

One of the uncertainties is when the infection started in the UK. There is reasonable evidence for December 2019.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348531

Postby Mike4 » October 17th, 2020, 8:11 pm

langley59 wrote:Yes we may never have got into the situation we are in if sensible controls over entry to the UK had been taken in the early days. Even I as a lockdown/mask sceptic was flabbergasted at the number of flights landing at Heathrow from virus hotspots like Wuhan, Milan and Tehran. Its almost as though they wanted to seed it in the UK.


Yes I thought that too. ISTR even saying so at the time.

Sealing off borders against incoming infection seems almost as obvious a step to take as wearing face coverings so your coughs, sneezes, breath and saliva when talking don't go all over other people. ISTR there being a massive effort to fly home something like 11m ex-pats from all over the world at the time, which struck me as monumental stupidity. I even heard a figure of 20m brought back to UK but that seems to high too be credible. They should all have been told to sit tight where they were and NOT come home in my opinion.

Like you say, back in the beginning the govt seemed to take every opportunity to get the virus imported, established and spreading as fast as they could.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348574

Postby Wuffle » October 18th, 2020, 8:32 am

A chat with neighbours (sharp employees of a big Midlands University) opened my eyes to the number of post Christmas / New Year returning students to our globally (China) integrated University complex. Fit and healthy youngsters with no symptoms.
If it is taken as domestically significant recently, it was then, internationally.
And that is just on top of normal business travel prior to that.

W.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#348591

Postby Itsallaguess » October 18th, 2020, 10:37 am

It's hard to keep up with some of the more useful real-time COVID charting options that have been popping up in various online locations, but I've found this one useful because it shows a five-day rolling average down to local-areas by postcode -

https://cf-particle-html.eip.telegraph.co.uk/c462b02b-1470-430d-b513-127cdfd64c6b.html

Image

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


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