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Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

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XFool
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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358841

Postby XFool » November 21st, 2020, 5:35 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:When I turn my bath taps on, and the hot and cold water are running, is the bath itself influencing the spread of the water, or is it limiting it?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Depends how long you leave them on for.....

:lol:

And if you put the plug in.

This has just turned into one of those old, school maths problems. :(

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358843

Postby Clitheroekid » November 21st, 2020, 5:41 pm

There's an interesting article here about a passenger on a flight from Dubai to New Zealand who had a clear PCR test before flying but was nevertheless positive and infected at least 4 other people on the flight - https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2 ... =hp_travel

It occurred to me when having my test before flying to Cyprus that I could very easily just have pretended to take it. I was given the kit and left to self-administer the test, with no supervision. I could therefore just have taken the swab out of the bag and put it straight into the sample bag, thereby guaranteeing me a negative result.

I wouldn’t have done so, even if it had occurred to me, but I’m sure there are plenty of people who are either desperate to fly or who are simply dishonest who have done this. Maybe one of them was on this plane.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358844

Postby Mike4 » November 21st, 2020, 5:43 pm

XFool wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:
Mike4 wrote:Depends how long you leave them on for.....

:lol:

And if you put the plug in.

This has just turned into one of those old, school maths problems. :(


As in, perhaps...

"If you turn the bath taps full on and they fill the bath at 3 gallons a minute, and the plug drains it at 2 gallons a minute, and the volume of the bath is 40 gallons, how much does this affect your chances of catching COVID-19?"

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358849

Postby XFool » November 21st, 2020, 5:51 pm

Clitheroekid wrote:There's an interesting article here about a passenger on a flight from Dubai to New Zealand who had a clear PCR test before flying but was nevertheless positive and infected at least 4 other people on the flight - https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2 ... =hp_travel

So, a false negative?

Funnily enough, 'alternative explanation' people always seem to be banging on about "false positives". Never seem to mention false negatives. ;)

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358851

Postby XFool » November 21st, 2020, 5:53 pm

Mike4 wrote:
XFool wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:And if you put the plug in.

This has just turned into one of those old, school maths problems. :(

As in, perhaps...

"If you turn the bath taps full on and they fill the bath at 3 gallons a minute, and the plug drains it at 2 gallons a minute, and the volume of the bath is 40 gallons, how much does this affect your chances of catching COVID-19?"

Yeah. That sounds about right. :?

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358852

Postby johnhemming » November 21st, 2020, 5:53 pm

XFool wrote:
Clitheroekid wrote:There's an interesting article here about a passenger on a flight from Dubai to New Zealand who had a clear PCR test before flying but was nevertheless positive and infected at least 4 other people on the flight - https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2 ... =hp_travel

So, a false negative?

Funnily enough, 'alternative explanation' people always seem to be banging on about "false positives". Never seem to mention false negatives. ;)


You may not notice it, but people mention both false positive and false negatives.

Elon Musk had four tests in one day recently two positive and two negative.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358853

Postby XFool » November 21st, 2020, 5:54 pm

johnhemming wrote:
XFool wrote:Funnily enough, 'alternative explanation' people always seem to be banging on about "false positives". Never seem to mention false negatives. ;)

You may not notice it, but people mention both false positive and false negatives.

Elon Musk had four tests in one day recently two positive and two negative.

So HE says. :lol:

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358869

Postby Lootman » November 21st, 2020, 6:42 pm

johnhemming wrote:
XFool wrote:
Clitheroekid wrote:There's an interesting article here about a passenger on a flight from Dubai to New Zealand who had a clear PCR test before flying but was nevertheless positive and infected at least 4 other people on the flight - https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2 ... =hp_travel

So, a false negative?
Funnily enough, 'alternative explanation' people always seem to be banging on about "false positives". Never seem to mention false negatives. ;)

You may not notice it, but people mention both false positive and false negatives.
Elon Musk had four tests in one day recently two positive and two negative.

Someone I know was exhibiting symptoms and they tested negative twice before testing positive. All three tests were done within a few days.

False negatives are more likely, presumably caused by faulty swabbing technique such as not swabbing for long enough or catching the swab on teeth or tongue. A false positive would be rarer and more likely a equipment or processing failure.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358870

Postby jfgw » November 21st, 2020, 6:44 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:"If the data continues to follow this exponential curve, then in a further 40 days there will be around 10,000 deaths per week - i.e. as high as the April peak."

viewtopic.php?f=83&t=22737&start=840#p348987

The bit in bold and underlined is very important GS, because the above post was made on October 19th, a full 17 days before the second England-wide full lock-down occurred on November 5th...

The data didn't continue to follow the predicted '10,000 deaths' exponential curve because the England-wide second-lockdown was brought in to prevent that very outcome...


While death numbers may be more accurate than new cases (I haven't compared them), they are a bit late to the party when it comes to looking at trends in new infections. I suggest that the figures for new cases are more timely and, therefore, more useful.

Looking at a log graph of new cases,
Image
My graph. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

the rate of doubling reduces at about 8th October. There is no indication on this graph that the current lockdown is having any effect on new cases, although it is really too early to tell. Any such indication is likely to fall a long way short of proof IMHO. I have not included the most recent week as these figures are unreliable - it can take several days for cases to be included.


Julian F. G. W.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358873

Postby XFool » November 21st, 2020, 6:45 pm

I'll try...

GoSeigen wrote:Putting the metaphors to the side, lockdown is not the only tool available, it is just the most draconian and needless at this time. I remember right back in March when the first lockdown happened and I asked in all seriousness "What exactly is the lockdown for" I got an "Oh FFS!!" in response as if it was blindingly obvious to all but a complete fool -- yet here we are eight months later with a second lockdown. Now you say it is to save a few lives. Really? That's what I reluctantly concluded about the first lockdown based on the following premises:

1. We were utterly unprepared either socially or in the NHS to deal with the pandemic.
2. It had just been discovered and practically nothing was known about it.
3. It was spreading at an alarming rate, still in its exponential phase and it was practically impossible to tell how many people were already infected or would be infected.
4. It was almost completely unknown how deadly the virus was.
5. The data so far indicated that it could potentially be very deadly.

However, none of those 5 points is true any more. The first lockdown had a decent chance of saving many lives especially if Covid was as bad as feared. So I gritted my teeth and supported it despite the atrocious attack on personal liberty that it represented.

Seems more or less accurate. But completely disagree with that "atrocious attack on personal liberty". This is another matter - but generally I'm a "circumstances alter cases" man.

GoSeigen wrote:Given none of the above are true what exactly is there to justify this lockdown? Don't say to save a few lives.

I'd like to suggest it is to try to "save a few lives".

1. By preventing the spread of COVID-19 and so directly "save a few lives".

2. By preventing COVID-19 patients flooding hospitals and thereby to indirectly "save a few lives" among others.

GoSeigen wrote:There is no strong argument to show that will be the case, just supposition, and besides, there are many ways to save a few lives -- from suicide, from heart disease, cancer etc as well as CV -- why don't SD and the other (baby-boomer) lockdown supporters focus on those?

Perhaps they are? See above. And who are these "other people"? Are you saying only "baby-boomers" get COVID-19? Or that "baby-boomers" don't suffer from "suicide, heart disease, cancer etc"? (You forgot "strokes")

GoSeigen wrote:The fact is, over the months since the first lockdown a huge amount of learning has taken place and there are many effective ways to tackle the remainder of this pandemic that don't involve trampling all over other people's liberties.

Yes. But they seemed not to be working adequately.

GoSeigen wrote:There's a lot of not seeing the wood for the trees on these Coronavirus threads. Some, like Clitheroekid get it. Others are so busy studying the minutiae and avoiding even reading opposing views for bizarre reasons like "it's in the wrong newspaper" or "it's put forward by someone I don't respect" that they have completely lost sight of the big picture.

Have they? I cannot speak for them but, for myself, I can say that yes, I do need to be able to respect the source, and the individual who is the source, of information. Do you automatically believe any clown on the Internet who claims 'definite proof' that the Moon landings didn't happen etc. etc? Seems to me there are far too many who do.

GoSeigen wrote: One example is a poster who is creating fancy little models which at the start of Nov predicted 10,000 deaths per week by the end of Nov from a "second wave" while the actual figure is likely to be a quarter as much. So he is basing his view on this virus on a model which in two months suggests between ten and twenty times as many deaths as is actually going to be the case!

If only we knew then what we know now, huh? Me? I'd have bought the winning lottery ticket for a start! Obviously I have 'failed' because I didn't. :)
But this matter has, I see, already been addressed in another post.

GoSeigen wrote:The big picture is this: The virus is not nearly as deadly as appeared at first, there was only one wave, which is now dying out, the high death rate initially was likely caused by policy errors, complete ignorance about the virus and its treatment, and harvesting; the virus now is just one of many similarly serious ailments which deserve to be treated on a par with CV; far too much of our focus is going on this thing that will be forgotten in a couple of years, while we might have to live for years or decades with the consequences of stuff we are ignoring, like Brexit (which promises to be a nightmare in the new year, in the absence of some sort of diplomatic miracle) and the disastrous effect this nonsense is having on our children's development and education.

The question is still unanswered in my mind: what was this lockdown for in specific detail? "Oh FFS!" is not an answer...

I can only refer you to what I say above.

My intuition is that this is not a binary issue: We either sort COVID-19 OR we look after the other issues.
IMO, the best solution to COVID-19 is/would have been(!) the best thing for the other matters. So... we may have managed to get BOTH wrong.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358882

Postby johnhemming » November 21st, 2020, 6:58 pm

jfgw wrote:I suggest that the figures for new cases are more timely and, therefore, more useful.

New cases are pretty useless as it depends too much on testing. It also tests prevalence rather than the incidence of new cases. The figures as to visits to GPs:

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoi ... IsImMiOjh9

Are more statistically reliable.

as are hospital admissions:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... me=England

Both point to a peak of infection in October with perhaps the East of England peaking later. (possibly late October).

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358899

Postby XFool » November 21st, 2020, 8:11 pm

Covid rampages across US, unifying a splintered nation as cases surge

The Guardian

The virus is on the rise so uniformly across the vast landmass of the US, that records are being shattered daily

BTW. Aren't they on their third wave now?

Perhaps the USA could act as a control sample for the 'alternative' approaches?

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358902

Postby johnhemming » November 21st, 2020, 8:35 pm

The USA has had some quite strict restrictions. Hence we should not be surprised to see a seasonal wave. If is after all in the northern hemisphere.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358903

Postby Nimrod103 » November 21st, 2020, 9:01 pm

XFool wrote:Covid rampages across US, unifying a splintered nation as cases surge

The Guardian

The virus is on the rise so uniformly across the vast landmass of the US, that records are being shattered daily

BTW. Aren't they on their third wave now?

Perhaps the USA could act as a control sample for the 'alternative' approaches?


Not true according to the map produced by the CDC, shown in today's John Campbell Youtube video. US infection are currently very much higher (on a per 100,000 basis) in the northern, colder interior states. Coastal states of the west south and east have much lower rates.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358904

Postby redsturgeon » November 21st, 2020, 9:08 pm

johnhemming wrote:The USA has had some quite strict restrictions. Hence we should not be surprised to see a seasonal wave. If is after all in the northern hemisphere.


The US has had some quite strict restrictions in some states and very little in others. My son is currently at college in Iowa and there have been few restrictions in place since his arrival in August. They are currently see large increases in cases as are most other states.

John

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358905

Postby redsturgeon » November 21st, 2020, 9:17 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
XFool wrote:Covid rampages across US, unifying a splintered nation as cases surge

The Guardian

The virus is on the rise so uniformly across the vast landmass of the US, that records are being shattered daily

BTW. Aren't they on their third wave now?

Perhaps the USA could act as a control sample for the 'alternative' approaches?


Not true according to the map produced by the CDC, shown in today's John Campbell Youtube video. US infection are currently very much higher (on a per 100,000 basis) in the northern, colder interior states. Coastal states of the west south and east have much lower rates.


https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... ctions-now

Data compiled by Oxford University suggests that states that have lax public health protocols in place to combat COVID-19 transmission are experiencing intense outbreaks.
These states include South and North Dakota, Wyoming, Iowa, Kansas, Indiana, Arizona, South Carolina, and Oklahoma, among others.


John

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358913

Postby JamesMuenchen » November 21st, 2020, 10:07 pm

servodude wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:
servodude wrote:
Sheesh - someone should tell him it would have happened anyway!


Ferguson, it would have happened anyway, as some of us have been saying here for weeks. The slowdown has nothing to do with the lockdown. You need to go back to the basics of epidemiology. Step one: take a look at a log chart of deaths in the UK. The wild, unpredictable spread of Covid ended in May, if not before; by July it was clearly over.

GS


Yeah. ;)

Perhaps I was over estimating the audience and should have used SarCAStic FoNT?

The lock down has already saved lives; perhaps you don't care...
but I've got this problem where I can't consider anyone's life as less important as mine...
... that's a good part of why I detest racists and this shoving yer granny under the bus policy is as offensive as thinking it doesn't matter because "BAME" or whatever.

-sd

And finally, after years of desperately trying, Servodude produces a funny post!

Hard to imagine a more self-obsessed putdown of selfishness than that one.
<Elbow bump>

As for grannies, well my mum for one would like to be allowed to meet her grandkids and even great grandkids, a few of whom she's never seen as they were born post-Covid.

She'd also like to be able to do her usual winter in the sun, take walks along the sea-front, and generally stay very fit, healthy, active and independent.

And she'd quite like to get some attention from the sainted NHS but her GP's is operating like some sort of crack den.

She doesn't want house-arrest in the name of protection.

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358914

Postby gryffron » November 21st, 2020, 10:14 pm

redsturgeon wrote:
Data compiled by Oxford University suggests that states that have lax public health protocols in place to combat COVID-19 transmission are experiencing intense outbreaks.
These states include South and North Dakota, Wyoming, Iowa, Kansas, Indiana, Arizona, South Carolina, and Oklahoma, among others.

They'll be the cold ones then?

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358923

Postby XFool » November 21st, 2020, 10:49 pm

JamesMuenchen wrote:As for grannies, well my mum for one would like to be allowed to meet her grandkids and even great grandkids, a few of whom she's never seen as they were born post-Covid.

She'd also like to be able to do her usual winter in the sun, take walks along the sea-front, and generally stay very fit, healthy, active and independent.

What's stopping her?

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Re: Beerpig's Snug No Politics Coronavirus Thread

#358929

Postby Lootman » November 21st, 2020, 11:42 pm

JamesMuenchen wrote:And finally, after years of desperately trying, Servodude produces a funny post!

It feels like longer than that, somehow . . .


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