Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

[dealtn]

They were not primary sources. Those were to demonstrate that there are reports of two separate studies of London which found reducing numbers of antibodies. It would not be that difficult to find the primary sources, but I feel that you will not be persuaded by any report that I find.

Have a look at the summary conclusions in
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/larg ... s-findings
"Almost everyone with a confirmed case of COVID was found to have antibodies (96%)."

Here is the actual source, which is better, than the "news" of it on the government site.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 120820.pdf

I think the "discussion" here is about Table 2. Of the 5,446 that had anitbodies 277 had a previous positive Covid test. Of the 99,768 tested 341 had a previous positive Covid test. So 81% (at a 95% Confidence Interval) of those with a previous positive Covid test still tested positive for antibodies. (This then gets adjusted to 96%).

What is quite interesting is that there were 1,144 that were previously suspected of having Covid by a doctor (and presumably either not tested or had negative tests). Of those 1,144 only 353 tested positive for antibodies, which is 31%. Now either Doctors are not very good at diagnosing Covid, or something else is going on here, as that is a huge difference.

So if Doctors generally are not good at diagnosing Covid, but put it on a lot of death certificates, does that mean they have over-represented the number of deaths. But if so what is causing so many of the "excess deaths"? Or they are better at diagnosing very severe cases, many of which go on to be fatalities, but less so mild cases?

A third category is where patients suspected they had previously had Covid (but no test or diagnosis from a doctor). This was 17,893 individuals, of whom only 3,118 had antibodies. Which is 17% of people which is very low given how many people (at least I have heard) say "I am sure I've had it". The "it" presumably in 80% or so of times is something else like a "cold".

[johnhemming]

Thank you for that. It is really helpful. One question is how many people who didn't think they had the virus actually did (but may not have had antibodies, but might have had a T cell positivity). I would also like to know how they got the figure of 81.2% to 96.2% by "adjusting for test" .

[redsturgeon]

We are doing antibody tests now and the figures we are seeing anecdotally back up the figures from the study.

John

[johnhemming]

We are doing antibody tests now and the figures we are seeing anecdotally back up the figures from the study.

There are quite a few people who have had the disease, but don't think they have.

Personally I think I have had the disease but notwithstanding my age (60) I would not be surprised to have a low level of antibodies although I think I fall into the category that probably has them (unlike my children who have probably also had it).

[servodude]

We are doing antibody tests now and the figures we are seeing anecdotally back up the figures from the study.

There are quite a few people who have had the disease, but don't think they have.

I'd wager there are far more hypochondriacs that think they have but haven't

- sd

[johnhemming]

I'd wager there are far more hypochondriacs that think they have but haven't

Difficult to prove either way, but otherwise I would be inclined to take that depending on the odds.

[zico]

I'd wager there are far more hypochondriacs that think they have but haven't

Difficult to prove either way, but otherwise I would be inclined to take that depending on the odds.

I remember back in Jan/Feb when it was first being reported, every time I coughed for no particular reason I thought "That's an unusual cough. Is that coronavirus?". Pretty sure I never had it, but it made me aware of how often people (not just me!) cough for no particular reason, maybe just habit. There's certainly far less of that in public these days!

[redsturgeon]

According the Mrs RS, anecdotally the deciding factor seems to be those who report loss of taste and smell invariably show antibodies while those who only report other symptoms like cough or fever prove negative.

John

[ursaminortaur]

The Guardian is reporting on overcrowding in in Wetherspoon pubs and that customers are not being asked to provide contact details.


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/aug/16/fears-overcrowding-in-wetherspoon-pubs-may-lead-to-covid-19-spike

Fears that relaxed summer socialising will lead to a surge in Covid-19 cases around the UK have been heightened after concerns that JD Wetherspoon is failing to prevent overcrowding in pubs in its 900-strong chain.

Concerns about poor social distancing by customers in Wetherspoon pubs followed a surge in visitors during recent hot weather and after the publication of A-level results last Thursday. Customers in a south London pub run by the company said they had not been asked to provide personal details, including mobile phone numbers that can be used in the government’s track and trace system.

[Lootman]

Customers in a south London pub run by the company said they had not been asked to provide personal details, including mobile phone numbers that can be used in the government’s track and trace system.

So I can't go to a pub without revealing my identity?

And I can't go to a pub if I don't have a mobile phone, presumably a smart phone?

[scotia]

I remember back in Jan/Feb when it was first being reported, every time I coughed for no particular reason I thought "That's an unusual cough. Is that coronavirus?". Pretty sure I never had it, but it made me aware of how often people (not just me!) cough for no particular reason, maybe just habit. There's certainly far less of that in public these days!

Just before lockdown was announced, I decided, after some concerned thoughts, that I would go for a haircut. And every time the Barber coughed, I wondered if I had made a wise choice. However there were no ill effects, and after lockdown ended I went for another much needed haircut to the same Barber - now attired with visor, and not coughing. Probably coughing is not good for trade.

[johnhemming]

The Guardian is reporting on overcrowding in in Wetherspoon pubs and that customers are not being asked to provide contact details.

The Wetherspoons I have my breakfast in has the NHS QR Code system and the pieces of paper. It is not overcrowded in the morning.

[jfgw]

The Wetherspoons I have my breakfast in has the NHS QR Code system and the pieces of paper. It is not overcrowded in the morning.

That's my experience too. Big signs, hand sanitiser, QR codes various places including on tables, and a box for paper slips on the way out.

It would be interesting to know how many people don't bother though.

Julian F. G. W.

[88V8]

The Wetherspoons I have my breakfast in .....

Ahhh, the immunising qualities of beer.
Beer - so much more than just a breakfast drink.

Btw, Kenneth Baker on Times Radio this morning commented that had he been Education Secretary - as he was of course - he would not have shut the schools. Whether the teachers would have been willing of course is another question.

V8

[tjh290633]

The Guardian is reporting on overcrowding in in Wetherspoon pubs and that customers are not being asked to provide contact details.

The Wetherspoons I have my breakfast in has the NHS QR Code system and the pieces of paper. It is not overcrowded in the morning.

The same with ours for Curry Club lunch on Thursdays. No crowding, QR code on the table, and contact sheets if required.

TJH

[Mike4]

The Guardian is reporting on overcrowding in in Wetherspoon pubs and that customers are not being asked to provide contact details.

The Wetherspoons I have my breakfast in has the NHS QR Code system and the pieces of paper. It is not overcrowded in the morning.

The same with ours for Curry Club lunch on Thursdays. No crowding, QR code on the table, and contact sheets if required.

TJH

If required by whom?

How would one know if NHS Track and Trace will be requiring them in a week?

[servodude]

The Wetherspoons I have my breakfast in .....

Ahhh, the immunising qualities of beer.
Beer - so much more than just a breakfast drink.

Btw, Kenneth Baker on Times Radio this morning.

I read that and can only think of R2-D2

-sd

[swill453]

The same with ours for Curry Club lunch on Thursdays. No crowding, QR code on the table, and contact sheets if required.

If required by whom?

I read it that the contact sheet could be used by those who couldn't use the QR code.

Scott.

[Clitheroekid]

Customers in a south London pub run by the company said they had not been asked to provide personal details, including mobile phone numbers that can be used in the government’s track and trace system.

So I can't go to a pub without revealing my identity?

And I can't go to a pub if I don't have a mobile phone, presumably a smart phone?

As people are increasingly coming to see that CV is nothing like as dangerous as it's been portrayed it's inevitable that their willingness to undertake any exercise that might put them in house arrest for 14 days will rapidly diminish.

Consequently, I suspect that many people asked for their details may or may not give their correct name, but will `accidentally' transpose a couple of the numbers in their mobile number, so as to ensure they don't receive an unwanted call / message.

I also think it's now pretty unlikely that many people will download a track and trace app that may also put them into house arrest just because some idiot imagines he's got symptoms.

Initially, people were justifiably scared, as nobody knew what we were dealing with. Consequently, support for strict restrictions was high, as was compliance. However, because both the evidence and the government response to it has been increasingly random and contradictory it's inevitable that people are now making judgments based on actual experience, and the experience of most people is that they don't know personally of many - or even any - people that have been hit hard by CV unless they were elderly and/or already ill.

This `lived experience' is backed up by the fact that even though the various rules have now been widely flouted for some weeks the hospitals are quite clearly not filling up with IC patients, and the death rate has now actually been lower than normal for the past couple of months.

Many people are therefore taking the view that the rules are increasingly pointless and based on knee-jerk reaction rather than scientific evidence, and substituting their own judgment as to what's safe and what's not.

As I had a post removed for making `political' comments I'd better reserve comment as to whether or not I consider such insubordination as worthy of severe punishment!

[Lootman]

The same with ours for Curry Club lunch on Thursdays. No crowding, QR code on the table, and contact sheets if required.

If required by whom?

I read it that the contact sheet could be used by those who couldn't use the QR code.

Or by those who do not wish to for other reasons e.g. privacy concerns, distrust of the concept etc.

I have not been to a pub since March but will be going again soon. I struggle to believe that any pub would refuse to serve me because I don't have a phone (and I will make a point of not having one with me).

And if I am asked to write down my details then I will do what CK just suggested, and "accidentally" get it wrong.