Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

[AsleepInYorkshire]

Hmm ...

Sometimes you have to go where the gorilla take you.

I've had to do something tonight. I had to remove a live fish from my daughters fish tank and it won't be going back. I took steps to ensure the fish passed peacefully.

As a young boy I spent time shooting and hunting. I worked on the "kill line" as a teenager at the local turkey factory.

I never shed a tear. I got on with life. I had to.

Somewhere over the last 45 years I've become more sensitive to my actions within the world around me. Times change. People change.

I'm having a rather stiff "pick me up" before I retire and doing my best to console myself that if I didn't remove this fish more would follow. There's no doubt about that. They have been slowly [but surely] dying from an incurable disease for a while now. The disease was picked up from fish purchased from a reputable fish shop. There's no known cure. There is only one course of action. Remove the dying to give those that are left a chance to survive.

The fish in my daughters fish tank (which was a present for Xmas) have something worse than C-19. If they get it they will ultimately pass away. The disease is transferred between fish when they "nibble" the bodies of fish that are dead.

Regardless of who's fault I think it may be and it could be mine as I should have had a quarantine tank in place, there's no looking back.

I sort of think I may feel just like Boris and his cabinet and medical advisors as they deal with C-19.

Sometimes the decisions we [have to] make in life aren't comfortable. I didn't feel comfortable tonight.

Maybe Boris, his cabinet and his advisors are feeling the same? Maybe, regardless of the past they are now going to go where the gorilla takes them.

I hope you all stay safe and well.

AiYn'U

[XFool]

Further, quoting from Dr John Lee's article:

The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month? Statistically, we would expect about 51,000 to die in Britain this month. At the time of writing, 422 deaths are linked to Covid-19 — so 0.8 per cent of that expected total. On a global basis, we’d expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year. The world’s 18,944 coronavirus deaths represent 0.14 per cent of that total.

- That 18,944 is currently 33,926 a mere two(?) days later -

These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu). Not figures that would, in and of themselves, cause drastic global reactions.

I am clearly not a retired professor of pathology, but I do wonder how you can realistically compare a population's endemic death rate to the deaths in a still developing epidemic. My inserted comment above surely makes my point.

[servodude]

Further, quoting from Dr John Lee's article:

The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month? Statistically, we would expect about 51,000 to die in Britain this month. At the time of writing, 422 deaths are linked to Covid-19 — so 0.8 per cent of that expected total. On a global basis, we’d expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year. The world’s 18,944 coronavirus deaths represent 0.14 per cent of that total.

- That 18,944 is currently 33,926 a mere two(?) days later -

These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu). Not figures that would, in and of themselves, cause drastic global reactions.

I am clearly not a retired professor of pathology, but I do wonder how you can realistically compare a population's endemic death rate to the deaths in a still developing epidemic. My inserted comment above surely makes my point.

It's one thing to look at the figures with a bit of dispassion, but that in some ways is getting cloudier as more data arrives
- given the infectiousness of this disease, e.g. if it is spreading at 20% per day, statistically everyone in the UK has it 3 months after the first infected person arrives
- at that point what is a COVID-19 death? everyone that dies has it

So we have to weight the stats with the pathology, and I just can't really reconcile the information available on that front with "they would probably have died anyway"

There's a week or two delay in the figures given the incubation period and the difficulties with testing (and reporting)
- so that's 7 to 14 steps left on your geometric growth series from the point where you make any decision to when you might see a result
- that's a huge transport lag in a system with massive gain, it removes the luxury of a wait and see position
- or alternatively at the point where someone decides "yeah these figures have shot up, it's bad" the figures they based that on represent a truth that's actually 3.5 to 12.8 times worse (7th and 14th power of 1.2)

As has been mentioned before
- if you get the response to this correct it will seem like an over-reaction; you will only be able to know that you didn't do enough

- sd

[Itsallaguess]

'Early signs' spread slowing down in UK -

The spread of coronavirus in the UK is showing "early signs" of slowing down since the lockdown, according to a leading government adviser. Strict measures came into place across the country a week ago.

Prof Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London, says some indicators, such as the numbers of new hospital admissions per day, suggest the spread does "appear to be slowing down a little bit".

He told the BBC's Today programme that the numbers hadn't "plateaued" yet and were still increasing each day, "but the rate of that increase has slowed". However, he added that this pattern hadn't been reflected in the number of deaths - but these usually lagged a long way behind.

Source - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52087619

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[DrFfybes]

Further, quoting from Dr John Lee's article:

The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month? Statistically, we would expect about 51,000 to die in Britain this month. At the time of writing, 422 deaths are linked to Covid-19 — so 0.8 per cent of that expected total. On a global basis, we’d expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year. The world’s 18,944 coronavirus deaths represent 0.14 per cent of that total.

- That 18,944 is currently 33,926 a mere two(?) days later -

These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu). Not figures that would, in and of themselves, cause drastic global reactions.

I am clearly not a retired professor of pathology, but I do wonder how you can realistically compare a population's endemic death rate to the deaths in a still developing epidemic. My inserted comment above surely makes my point.

I agree with SD...this is where the waters get a bit muddied. Obviously the reporting is a bit "iffy" in some countries anyway, but also the way Cause of Death is reported varies.
I understand that in Italy anyone who had tested positive was being classed as a CV19 death, even if that was not the primary cause (although I suspect in the most cases it was). eg someone in with terminal cancer or severe pneumonia, who then/also had CV19 was classed as a CV19 death. We don't know how many of these people wouild have died from their underlying causes anyway over the next week or so.

What we need is the excess over normal, for Flu this "Excess Winter Mortality" figure is an indication of how effective that year's vaccine is, or how severe the flu strain, and varies in the UK between 2k and 38k in recent years, but they don't come out until November.

There's no denying that those who contract CV19 are at high risk of going downhill very quickly, but the headline figures are not necessarily the whole truth.

Paul

[XFool]

I agree with SD...this is where the waters get a bit muddied. Obviously the reporting is a bit "iffy" in some countries anyway, but also the way Cause of Death is reported varies.

What we need is the excess over normal, for Flu this "Excess Winter Mortality" figure is an indication of how effective that year's vaccine is, or how severe the flu strain, and varies in the UK between 2k and 38k in recent years, but they don't come out until November.

There's no denying that those who contract CV19 are at high risk of going downhill very quickly, but the headline figures are not necessarily the whole truth.

I see no reason to doubt the current figures are neither truly compatible, country by country, or that the overall figures are exactly 'correct'. But surely, presuming the figures are what they are and countries are not significantly changing the method they use to determine their figures (I believe this did happen at one point in China and it shows in their casualty figures/chart), isn't it then the trajectory of the figures (whatever the absolute numbers may be) that both matters and gives a picture of what is happening in a developing pandemic?

What the 'real' figures mean on the ground is the story of what is happening in a country's health service.

The 'real' figures can be determined(?), argued over, after it is over (assuming a definite end, which may yet prove not to be the case).

Then again, wrt the historic Spanish Flu pandemic, the 'true' figures for the deaths are today still not very precise: "The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Rightly or wrongly, to me, a lot of this debating online over the 'real' figures has something of the flavour of arguing over how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

[stockton]

I would think curtailing the activities of these: the irresponsible party-goers and moorland wanderers

Surely what is required is a text which discriminates between the two in a practical manner.

[panamagold]

I would think curtailing the activities of these: the irresponsible party-goers and moorland wanderers

Surely what is required is a text which discriminates between the two in a practical manner.

I don't quite fully understand your implication as to why a text is necessary to disciminate between These and These. Both activities, under present circumstances, would appear to be equally reckless.

[Wuffle]

'Rightly or wrongly, to me, a lot of this debating online over the 'real' figures has something of the flavour of arguing over how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.'

No;
It matters because controlling the data and the public perception thereof matters.
When we are allowed to pick and chose who controls a chunk of our lives we need something like a handle on the truth.
Questioning and analysis should be encouraged.
Particularly amongst those who can actually count, unlike the many who are easily hoodwinked.

W.

[PinkDalek]

Surely what is required is a text which discriminates between the two in a practical manner.

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/made

Coming into force at 1.00 p.m. on 26th March 2020

Restrictions on movement

6.—(1) During the emergency period, no person may leave the place where they are living without reasonable excuse. ...

Restrictions on gatherings

7. During the emergency period, no person may participate in a gathering in a public place of more than two people except— ...

is worth a study and should cover it all.

[zico]

I see no reason to doubt the current figures are neither truly compatible, country by country, or that the overall figures are exactly 'correct'. But surely, presuming the figures are what they are and countries are not significantly changing the method they use to determine their figures (I believe this did happen at one point in China and it shows in their casualty figures/chart), isn't it then the trajectory of the figures (whatever the absolute numbers may be) that both matters and gives a picture of what is happening in a developing pandemic?

Yes, this is exactly the point. As long as a country's methodology for counting deaths doesn't change during the outbreak, everyone can compare the trajectory and see what strategies are effective, and also get a good estimate for how their country's outbreak will develop in the coming weeks.
One interesting point is that although Germany has a far more extensive testing regime than most European countries, their trajectory of deaths is similar to other countries.

For anyone interested, there's a really good explainer of the FT coronavirus charts, with answers to some common questions about the charts.

https://www.ft.com/video/9a72a9d4-8db1- ... 73ae3ddff8

[stockton]

I would think curtailing the activities of these: the irresponsible party-goers and moorland wanderers

Surely what is required is a text which discriminates between the two in a practical manner.

I don't quite fully understand your implication as to why a text is necessary to disciminate between These and These. Both activities, under present circumstances, would appear to be equally reckless.

It is quite beyond me that anyone should consider these two activities equivalent. Prior to this crisis a 5-mile walk was my normal form of exercise.

[BrummieDave]

I would think curtailing the activities of these: the irresponsible party-goers and moorland wanderers

Surely what is required is a text which discriminates between the two in a practical manner.

I don't quite fully understand your implication as to why a text is necessary to disciminate between These and These. Both activities, under present circumstances, would appear to be equally reckless.

And if you look back at my original text in the post at 6.14pm last night (below), it was just a sympathetic posting about the vulnerable in society and the challenges they will increasingly face, and how I hope that the police will be able to give these people their attention and support, alerting the correct authorities to help prioritise appropriate interventions, rather than get side tracked monitoring people who may be acting against government guidance.

I certainly wasn't trying to differentiate, but picked out two recent news stories were police resources were directed in these other two directions.

Aside from the obvious risk to everyone's health which is a given, I'm worried about the socially disadvantaged some of whom may have neither the financial means nor mental capacity to get through this. I fear for them, and what may happen to them when they get hungry. It is they, not the irresponsible party-goers and moorland wanderers, who the police and other authorities, possibly including the army at some stage, need to look out for and treat sympathetically with pre-planned processes and protocols. This situation could arise relatively soon in some parts of major conurbations, and other deprived areas.

[BrummieDave]

It is quite beyond me that anyone should consider these two activities equivalent. Prior to this crisis a 5-mile walk was my normal form of exercise.

Nobody did, it was a reference to two news stories, one I'd read about a party in Coventry, and one in Derbyshire I think, were the police had directed resources recently. The only link between the two being that the police had intervened.

Having reported myself to the grammar police on this occasion, perhaps a comma after "party-goers" would have helped: It is they (the vulnerable in our society), not the irresponsible party-goers, and moorland wanderers, who the police and other authorities, possibly including the army at some stage, need to look out for and treat sympathetically...

Hope that helps.

[panamagold]

Surely what is required is a text which discriminates between the two in a practical manner.

I don't quite fully understand your implication as to why a text is necessary to disciminate between These and These. Both activities, under present circumstances, would appear to be equally reckless.

It is quite beyond me that anyone should consider these two activities equivalent. Prior to this crisis a 5-mile walk was my normal form of exercise.

It would appear that you do actually grasp the significance of the current enforcable restrictions when you state and I quote "Prior to this crisis". That is the nub.
If and when this crisis diminishes and hopefully evaporates I expect, assuming you haven't fallen prey to the effects of the virus through others self interest activities, you will be able to resume your daily fitness regime.

[PinkDalek]

It would appear that you do actually grasp the significance of the current enforcable [enforceable?] restrictions when you state and I quote "Prior to this crisis". That is the nub.
If and when this crisis diminishes and hopefully evaporates I expect, assuming you haven't fallen prey to the effects of the virus through others self interest activities, you will be able to resume your daily fitness regime.

Whatever happened to?:

A virtual pub for off topic, light hearted pub related banter and discussion.

[panamagold]

Whatever happened to?:

A virtual pub for off topic, light hearted pub related banter and discussion.

It became a Weatherspoons.

[PinkDalek]

Thankfully this one is still open.

[stockton]

It would appear that you do actually grasp the significance of the current enforcable restrictions when you state and I quote "Prior to this crisis". That is the nub.
If and when this crisis diminishes and hopefully evaporates I expect, assuming you haven't fallen prey to the effects of the virus through others self interest activities, you will be able to resume your daily fitness regime.

I had not realised that "going for a five mile walk" was actually prohibited in the UK, but unfortunately I am in another country where it is clearly prohibited.
At present I get the impression that people who live in the country are being sacrificed in order to stress the importance of the regulations to town dwellers.

[DrFfybes]

It is quite beyond me that anyone should consider these two activities equivalent. Prior to this crisis a 5-mile walk was my normal form of exercise.

Prior to this crisis, a walk to Wetherspoons or to the cake section of Morissons was my normal form of exercise.

Paul