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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 25th, 2020, 8:36 am
by DrFfybes
Mike4 wrote:Quite a lot of new information contained in Dr Campbell's video from yesterday. These are the bits that caught my attention:

The ONS has been doing antigen swabs en masse. 14,500 randomly chosen (apparently) people tested between 4 to 14 May. 0.25% of these people tested positive and are infected. Extrapolated to the whole population, 165,000 people are currently infected and would test positive.
[...]

A 20 minute antigen test device is being trialled in Basingstoke. A fully portable device and believed to be as accurate as PCR test.


His style is very good and measured, and a good presenter not given to assumptions or exaggeration.

Forget the fountain pen abuse, you'd think a doctor would know the difference between an antigen and Nucleic Acid, and a minute or so later when discussing the 20 min test he correctly refers to the RNA test as a PCR test rather than Antigen test.

The "Basingstoke" 20 min test was developed in March and hit the news at the start of April, but for some reason only seemed to be picked up by the local newspapers.

And now to add to the confusion there actually is a proper Antigen test being trialled, which test for viral protein fragments in the swab, rather than the PCR test which looks for viral DNA. Both test for the presence of the virus.

Paul

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 25th, 2020, 8:44 am
by GoSeigen
Mike4 wrote:
servodude wrote:
Mike4 wrote:Quite a lot of new information contained in Dr Campbell's video from yesterday. These are the bits that caught my attention:
<snip>
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJMlcKbFOEI


Thanks for that, it was a good watch
- he has a very pleasant no-fuss presenting style

This (https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-su ... nging.html) was teased at the top of one of his sheets - but he didn't mention it (I think it's understanding this kind of case that's going to be key to how we might manage things effectively "post lockdown")

[...]

I do feel like I should be reporting him for fountain pen abuse though... poor nib!

I also noticed he was using a ruler to extrapolate on a log scale ;)


[...]

And yes he does tend to make skoolboy errors like the ruler on log scales, and often fesses up to stuff like this in a subsequent vid in response to the flurry of twitter posts nit-picking such things, which he finds quite amusing!


Cor, WAY too long winded. I can't sit watching half hour videos like this. However, skipping through, similar conclusions to mine, e.g. that Brazil, India and Russia will be in the news over coming weeks, along with, probably, Pakistan, Mexico and maybe Indonesia and Philippines. IMO wer are 1% or so into the epidemic: End/June mid July there will likely be c. 30m dead. No-one much will care because in the whole victims will be in sh-thole countries, to coin a phrase.

I don't see anything wrong with the "extrapolation" on log paper. He's just indicating the direction of travel, unless I skipped over something more egregious...

GS

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 25th, 2020, 8:56 am
by Mike4
GoSeigen wrote:Cor, WAY too long winded. I can't sit watching half hour videos like this. However, skipping through, similar conclusions to mine
GS

I'll let you all into a secret. Don't watch his videos. Just listen, while you get on with something else. You'll pick up 95% of what he has to say anyway. I often listen to them at 1.5 x speed. Perfectly audible at this speed but without the turgidity. Works well with lots of youtubers actually. But double speed I find too fast.

And not on this video, but many times he will start off by giving you the conclusions, explaining this is so you don't have to slog through the whole thing. If you want the evidence he bases his conclusions on, you'll have to though. :)

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 25th, 2020, 9:20 am
by servodude
GoSeigen wrote:I don't see anything wrong with the "extrapolation" on log paper. He's just indicating the direction of travel, unless I skipped over something more egregious.


It implies "the shape that cannot be mentioned" in the pub ;)

-sd

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 25th, 2020, 9:43 am
by GoSeigen
servodude wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:I don't see anything wrong with the "extrapolation" on log paper. He's just indicating the direction of travel, unless I skipped over something more egregious.


It implies "the shape that cannot be mentioned" in the pub ;)

-sd


Duh, completely missed the sarcasm...

GS

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 26th, 2020, 10:21 am
by XFool
Italy's medical workers: 'We became heroes but they've already forgotten us'

BBC News

Doctors and nurses in Italy have been celebrated as heroes for treating desperately ill coronavirus patients.

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 26th, 2020, 3:54 pm
by dealtn
Looks like politics are creeping back into the pub again. Can we maybe try and keep this an unspoilt area, and have that kind of fun elsewhere?

Moderator Message:
I agree, and I've just moved a couple of recent posts over to the Polite Discussions area, where they really should have been posted in the first place - Itsallaguess

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 28th, 2020, 12:53 am
by ElectronicFur
The head of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health says scientific data shows lockdown was unnecessary...

Also telling that she says her agency did not recommend closing schools and nurseries, so that was a political decision.

https://www.thelocal.no/20200522/norway-could-have-controlled-infection-without-lockdown-health-chief/

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 28th, 2020, 12:56 am
by ElectronicFur
Sunetra Gupta, Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at the University of Oxford.

https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubl ... interview/

This suggests lockdown has been pointless, had little effect, and that we should rapidly exit it.

Remember that before lockdown her warnings that Professor Ferguson's model was wrong were ignored, and her competing paper which showed that, was attacked by his supporters as dangerous... not as dangerous as a pointless lockdown...

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 28th, 2020, 1:08 am
by Mike4
ElectronicFur wrote:Sunetra Gupta, Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at the University of Oxford.

https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubl ... interview/

This suggests lockdown has been pointless, had little effect, and that we should rapidly exit it.

Remember that before lockdown her warnings that Professor Ferguson's model was wrong were ignored, and her competing paper which showed that, was attacked by his supporters as dangerous... not as dangerous as a pointless lockdown...


The real story is Boris and Cummings were spooked by the result of "Excercise Cygnus" back in 2016 once someone finally managed to draw it to their attention, IMHO. The exercise report was suppressed and kicked into the long grass by the guvverment at the time, being far too scary and the recommendations far too expensive to take seriously. That turned out well then.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... id-it-find

"What was Exercise Cygnus?
Exercise Cygnus was a 2016 government simulation of a flu outbreak, carried out to war-game the UK’s pandemic readiness. It involved 950 officials from central and local government, NHS organisations, prisons and local emergency response planners. A report on the exercise was compiled the following year and distributed among its participants.

The simulation took place over three days in October 2016 and asked participants to imagine they were fighting a fictitious “worst-case-scenario” flu pandemic affecting up to 50% of the population and causing up to 400,000 excess deaths."

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 28th, 2020, 2:20 am
by servodude
ElectronicFur wrote:This suggests lockdown has been pointless, had little effect, and that we should rapidly exit it.


Do you remember when your line was:
- if this was real the ONS data would show excess deaths? Where are the excess deaths? Look it hasn't changed - who needs a lockdown?

Just saying ;)
- sd

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 28th, 2020, 7:41 am
by Wuffle
The excess deaths.
To me there will clearly be a concertina effect.
Truly excess deaths will only be apparent when observing the peak and trough and considering those outside of a normal distribution across the whole period.
Yes, a defined and relatively brief period because everybody dies eventually.
I suspect this approach gives a more realistic indication of the true social impact.
As it stands we seem to be having a fit that 300 people a day die in plane crashes, when one has just crashed. Tomorrow it would likely be half.

W.

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 28th, 2020, 3:25 pm
by jfgw
Snorvey wrote:'Nah, I'll not be able to get those shelves put up dear. I think I'm coming down with the COVID'

'You've got a cold you pussy. I had it last week. Now get to it.'

"But this is man covid."

Julian F. G. W.

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 28th, 2020, 4:23 pm
by XFool
French tests show even mild coronavirus illness leads to antibodies

The Guardian

Study raises hope of immunity even for those without severe symptoms

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 28th, 2020, 7:08 pm
by XFool
About 7% have had coronavirus, says ONS survey

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52837593

About 7% of people in England have been infected with coronavirus, antibody tests on a random sample of households suggest.

"Herd immunity is not worth worrying about" at that level, say experts involved in the Office for National Statistics study.

The findings indicate "that the majority of the population are unlikely to have been infected," says Prof Lawrence Young, professor of molecular oncology at Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick.

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 28th, 2020, 8:28 pm
by scotia
XFool wrote:About 7% have had coronavirus, says ONS survey

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52837593

About 7% of people in England have been infected with coronavirus, antibody tests on a random sample of households suggest.

"Herd immunity is not worth worrying about" at that level, say experts involved in the Office for National Statistics study.

The findings indicate "that the majority of the population are unlikely to have been infected," says Prof Lawrence Young, professor of molecular oncology at Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick.

If we assume that the 7% infection rate is reasonably correct over the entire UK, and has resulted in 37800 deaths, then if no actions are taken to avoid the other 93% from getting infected, we are looking at around half a million deaths out of 66 million.
OK - I'm sure survival rates will improve, as lessons are learned - but we clearly need to restrict the spread of the infection, and hopefully quench it. This is going to need a very determined effort from the entire community - with no exceptions.

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 28th, 2020, 10:36 pm
by ElectronicFur
servodude wrote:
ElectronicFur wrote:This suggests lockdown has been pointless, had little effect, and that we should rapidly exit it.


Do you remember when your line was:
- if this was real the ONS data would show excess deaths? Where are the excess deaths? Look it hasn't changed - who needs a lockdown?



Disingenuous. I never said it wasn't a real virus. At the time there were no excess deaths. The ONS data proves I was correct.

At the same time you guys were claiming exponential deaths and Armageddon. But now backtracking with dodgy definitions...

And I also stated that there was no solid scientific data to say this was a once in a century killer virus. There still is none. I also stated that it may well be only slightly worse than a bad flu season. At present, looking at mortality rates, the curve appears no worse than a bad flu season.

So at the time of the lockdown decision there was no solid scientific data to support lockdown, apart from dodgy computer models. And there still is none. If you have any solid scientific data that shows lockdown has made a discernible difference, present it. Many eminent scientists agree that there is none.

Lockdown has been pointless. It's happened because fear ruled the day, whilst rational thought and reasonable interpretation of the evidence were abandoned. Sweden is the control subject, no Armageddon there. But you, like many, will dismiss that.

Most are now suffering from a severe strain of sunk-cost fallacy...

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 28th, 2020, 10:45 pm
by Mike4
jfgw wrote:"But this is man covid."

Julian F. G. W.


Well I'm still waiting for someone to explain what on earth this disease has to do with rooks, ravens, magpies, jackdaws and crows.

:)

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 28th, 2020, 10:50 pm
by gryffron
Mike4 wrote:
jfgw wrote:"But this is man covid."

Well I'm still waiting for someone to explain what on earth this disease has to do with rooks, ravens, magpies, jackdaws and crows.


Ooks, avens and cows for sue?

;)

Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

Posted: May 28th, 2020, 10:54 pm
by Mike4
gryffron wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
jfgw wrote:"But this is man covid."

Well I'm still waiting for someone to explain what on earth this disease has to do with rooks, ravens, magpies, jackdaws and crows.


Ooks, avens and cows for sue?

;)

Qué?