Thou shalt not suffer cognitive biases...

[Itsallaguess]

Know thyself....

https://i.redd.it/prqpyjj9n1u51.png

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[UncleEbenezer]

Not legible.

Though I can see it's someone's tickbox list. I'd tick some of the boxes myself, and note that at least one of them betrays (or appears to betray) two separate fallacies in its author.

[Itsallaguess]

Not legible.

Apologies - it was zoomable when I checked via preview, before committing the post, but there's a quirk with imgur URL's that stop it working if the right cookies aren't present locally..

I've changed and fixed the picture link below now so that it should be zoomable in most browsers (also fixed the original post link too..) -

https://i.redd.it/prqpyjj9n1u51.png

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

Yeah good post.

I'm finding a good way to reset one's confirmation biases, is to read literature by those who sit on the "other side of the fence" to oneself. For example, in addition to reading Mary Trump's awesome "Too much, never enough" on DJT, I then read Bolton's "The room where it happened". Despite, myself being opposed to Bolton's hawkiness re. Iran, NK etc. it was refreshing to read his arguments for various foreign policy objectives, and then I realised that certain of them are actually *fairly reasonable* !

I've also been reading the odd Spectator article (from my Dad's, "I've finished with this now, Matthew", collection), and that's helped me by reappraise several recent happenings (e.g. Brexit).

Knowing yourself is the beginning of all wisdom (Aristotle apparently)

Matt

[johnhemming]

It is a useful summary. It is always important to read different points of view. One useful thing about this forum is that people bring to the debates some different good sources of information. That makes it easier to get to the truth.

Relying on any one source of media is not that good as they tend to play to their audience. You need to read a wide range of different views to get a reasonably objective perspective.

[Arborbridge]

On this topic, I can recommend "The Art of Thinking Clearly" by Rolf Dobelli. There's a chapter devoted to each bias with examples and there is much of relevance to investment as well as all facets of life.

Arb.

[ReformedCharacter]

On this topic, I can recommend "The Art of Thinking Clearly" by Rolf Dobelli. There's a chapter devoted to each bias with examples and there is much of relevance to investment as well as all facets of life.

Arb.

It is an excellent read and here's a link to a pdf containing it:

http://xqdoc.imedao.com/166eb7278f3556e3fe9dc3ef.pdf

RC

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

Well I posted this https://i.redd.it/prqpyjj9n1u51.png to the work's MS Teams group chat for my team. Stirred up a lot of interest.

Without bothering to "ask Wiki" me and a colleague both had differing opinions of the Dunning-Kruger effect. I said it's about irrationally losing confidence in something as you acquire more knowledge, since learning more makes you more dubious of stability/reliability. As an example I referred to the possibility of one of my car's track rod ends failing at high speed causing a (fatal) crash. I said when I was younger I'd drive like a looney not realising that the inner and outer end of the rod are quite thin and could fatigue + the fastener threads could loosen off etc. Now I know more about such matters I could fear this (very low probability event) more than when younger, and that would be an irrational bias.

However, what my mate reckons, is that as you acquire more knowledge about something, you become less confident about it because you realise that the subject matter is more complex than you'd previously imagined, i.e. before you acquired the knowledge you know less, so potentially over simplified it.

They (mine and my mate's) both seem like cognitive biases. Not sure which one is the Dunning-Kruger effect, however!

Matt

[XFool]

They (mine and my mate's) both seem like cognitive biases. Not sure which one is the Dunning-Kruger effect, however!

Matt

The second one!

The inverse of course is that that people who know the least are the most confident. Or, as this effect is otherwise known: 'The Internet'.

[johnhemming]

They (mine and my mate's) both seem like cognitive biases. Not sure which one is the Dunning-Kruger effect, however!

Matt

The second one!

The inverse of course is that that people who know the least are the most confident. Or, as this effect is otherwise known: 'The Internet'.

Of course a simple way of maintaining confidence is to refuse to read things where you don't like the author's use of Mark Twain quotations.

[XFool]

They (mine and my mate's) both seem like cognitive biases. Not sure which one is the Dunning-Kruger effect, however!

Matt

The second one!

The inverse of course is that that people who know the least are the most confident. Or, as this effect is otherwise known: 'The Internet'.

Of course a simple way of maintaining confidence is to refuse to read things where you don't like the author's use of Mark Twain quotations.

Have you read his Twitter feed?

It's always good to keep an open mind, but as the old saying has it: "Not so open your brain falls out"

[johnhemming]

Have you read his Twitter feed?

It's always good to keep an open mind, but as the old saying has it: "Not so open your brain falls out"

I think you linked to it. The argument about susceptibility remains relevant.

[XFool]

Have you read his Twitter feed?

It's always good to keep an open mind, but as the old saying has it: "Not so open your brain falls out"

I think you linked to it. The argument about susceptibility remains relevant.

It may do, it may not. I have no idea. But for myself, I wouldn't seek enlightenment via Dr Yeadon.

[Mike4]

Well I posted this https://i.redd.it/prqpyjj9n1u51.png to the work's MS Teams group chat for my team. Stirred up a lot of interest.

Without bothering to "ask Wiki" me and a colleague both had differing opinions of the Dunning-Kruger effect. I said it's about irrationally losing confidence in something as you acquire more knowledge, since learning more makes you more dubious of stability/reliability. As an example I referred to the possibility of one of my car's track rod ends failing at high speed causing a (fatal) crash. I said when I was younger I'd drive like a looney not realising that the inner and outer end of the rod are quite thin and could fatigue + the fastener threads could loosen off etc. Now I know more about such matters I could fear this (very low probability event) more than when younger, and that would be an irrational bias.

However, what my mate reckons, is that as you acquire more knowledge about something, you become less confident about it because you realise that the subject matter is more complex than you'd previously imagined, i.e. before you acquired the knowledge you know less, so potentially over simplified it.

They (mine and my mate's) both seem like cognitive biases. Not sure which one is the Dunning-Kruger effect, however!

Matt

I thought the Dunning Kruger effect was when someone was too stupid to realise how stupid they are.

I don't suffer from this. I know how stupid I am. Errr....

[UncleEbenezer]

I don't suffer from this. I know how stupid I am. Errr....

As did Socrates.

[Mike4]

I don't suffer from this. I know how stupid I am. Errr....

As did Socrates.

Disagree. That nice Mr Socrates recognised how little he knew, Shirley. One needs to be quite bright to realise how little one knows, innit.

A common mistake, conflating edumacation with intelligence/ignorance with stupidity. The two do not necessarily go hand-in-hand.

[servodude]

I don't suffer from this. I know how stupid I am. Errr....

As did Socrates.

Disagree. That nice Mr Socrates recognised how little he knew, Shirley. One needs to be quite bright to realise how little one knows, innit.

A common mistake, conflating edumacation with intelligence/ignorance with stupidity. The two do not necessarily go hand-in-hand.

Shirley, not in this current socially distanced environment ?

anyways good site and has a companion here https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/
- though no true fan of this stuff would need to be told

-sd