The Grand National

[terminal7]

IMHO landlord - Red Rum was a significantly better chaser than TR - just look at the fences he jumped back in the day.

T7

[Beerpig]

I agree- RR was the best by a mile.
I remember having £2 win on him at 10/1 (early price) when he won for the third time only to be fined £25 by the magistrates the following week for speeding.
Easy come easy go hey?

[nimnarb]

Have won a few times on the big one. Best ever though was on Hello Dandy in 84. Was upset to hear though how he had been found in a field I think at the age of 22, totally emaciated and uncared for and was going to be put down but if memory serves, Peter 0’Sullivan and others heard about this sorry state of affairs and took charge plus arranged for HD to go to a good home. He totally recovered and lived to the ripe old age of 33.
A wonderful happy ending.

[terminal7]

Allegedly, after Hello Dandy was loaned to the Earl of Onslow (a Tory member of the HoL) for hunting by the owner a Mr Shaw, the Right Hon gentleman hunted the horse for several years. By the age of 20, it would appear that allegedly the horse was turned out in a field owned by Onslow and was subsequently found in a terrible state some years later. Fortunately he was found and the Thoroughbred Rehabilitation Centre effectively 'saved' him. The TRC stated diplomatically that there had been "errors in animal husbandry". The Earl indignantly denied neglect, insisting in a letter to the Horse and Hound magazine that the horse "has been used for publicity in a very slanted way.". Clearly yet another left wing smear.

T7

[terminal7]

Together with 10 other horses Agusta Gold scratched today from the GN. Anyone who backed NRNB should receive their wager back soonest.

AG is still in the Irish GN on 5 April - this actually looks a tougher race and yet the mare is a top price of 20/1 with Boylesports but just 14/1 and 16/1 with most other bookies. Keep away for the time being as these prices are not NRNB. Also Willie Mullins has 16 runners entered at the moment.

T7

[terminal7]

Been having difficulty in getting my NRNB money back re Agusts Gold. Been 'officially' told it will not be returned until the official declarations 48 hours before the race. Don't you just love the bookies. The horse has been officially scratched and hence cannot run. Hence a non runner.

T7

ps AG is still in the Irish GN 5/4/21 - will update in due course

[brightncheerful]

It has been known that I have managed to forecast the winner of the National in previous years.

Less well known is that i have managed to bet on the winner yet lose more than my stake.

[terminal7]

Agusta Gold looks like it will run in the Irish GN next Monday. I have managed to get a small amount on at 16/1. It is generally around 12/1 or less now. The final declarations not yet out - that will tell us a lot because Willie Mullins still has a shedload of horses in. If Danny Mullins is jocked up - that would be a very positive sign.

T7

[terminal7]

With the no show for AG in the Aintree GN, I have reluctantly had to have a further review. See all the previous stuff re NRNB situation.

This looks a poor quality running with a lot of 11yo and older in the upper echelons of the handicap - such old horses very rarely win (even 10 is pushing it). Saying that I have a liking for a 10yo - currently 49 in handicap and will need 9 therefore to come out. You can get 66/1 NRNB with Corals, W Hill and Ladbrokes. It ran in the Cross Country at Cheltenham and on non handicap terms came third and run well. Just take the line through Tiger Roll to see how well it run at the weights. This is not an unusual route - X Country to GN - Silver Birch did me proud doing this some 15 years ago or so.

Some Neck EW

T7

[terminal7]

Three horses pulled out today above Great Neck in the weights - hence only 6 now need to fall by the wayside.

T7

[terminal7]

Final update on the Irish GN: AG is running with another 4 from the same stable. Paul Townend - stable no 1 jock - has had the pick and decided to go with AG. Disappointed that the trainer did not stick with usual jock - but hey PT is def a better jock. Because of all this the nag has contracted further in price and is a max of 10/1 with 3 main bookies but elsewhere 8s and 9s. This is poor value. Fortunately I have some skin in the game at 16/1 and will probably arbitrage half my bet to at least get a green book.

Will update on Aintree later in the week once final decs are out. FYI - Some Neck has shrunk in the betting and all the 66/1 is gone - few places offering 50/1 but generally now 40/1. Hopefully should SN get in his price could shrink to 33/1 - depending on whose is jocked up. Low weight reduces the availability of top jocks.

T7

[Beerpig]

The going at Aintree next week will be soft- the weather forecast is rain.
The means put a red line through anything carrying over 11 stone.

I'm on the following

Double Shuffle 50/1
Hogans Heights 40/1
Vieux Lion rouge 40/1
Jett 50/1
Bristol de Mei 25/1

I put the money on now nrnb because the odds of everything will halve by Saturday.

[Clitheroekid]

Final update on the Irish GN: AG is running with another 4 from the same stable. Paul Townend - stable no 1 jock - has had the pick and decided to go with AG.

Not any more - it's Danny Mullins now - https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/ ... nal/482631

[terminal7]

Thanks CK - Paul Townend injured himself yesterday and is 'hors de combat'.

To my mind this increases the chances of AG - hence the sudden noteworthy contraction of price with bookies - though it is fairly weak on the exchanges.

I could explain why over rounds are contracting at the same time as the price of the top 2/3 horses in the betting also contracting (clearly an apparent contradiction in terms) - all to do with the industry starting price mechanism which was installed to replace the on course SP mechanism because of the Plague - but maybe a discussion for another day!

T7

[terminal7]

Another few taken out at latest declaration stage. SN is 42 but is at the same weight as Secret Reprieve at 43. If 3 or more come out at the 48 decs (Thursday), they both get in. If only 2 come out the handicapper will decide on yet to be announced criteria who will get the final position.

More exciting the race.

T7

[Clitheroekid]

I wish I'd had £50 on that!

[terminal7]

The winners' stable had a fancied horse in the race at 18/1 - as a bobcat* should have known better with Freewheelin . . .

Unfortunately AG was never travelling and jumped as if she was feeling the ground. The going appeared good (as usual clerk of the course being misleading for the usual reasons) - interesting the highly fancied the Big Dog (together with 2 other horses) were taken out because of unsuitable going. Danny Mullins clearly wanted to get a flyer at the start but the false start stymied that and after the second start he tried to roust the mare to take a prominent position. Unfortunately she just did not have the pace and fell backwards on the inside and eventually the jock was forced to switch wide to make up some ground - just for a moment about 5/6 out the mare started to make ground but was wide around the bend. She quickly petered out between the last 2 and finished 11th.

There was a deluge of money for her just before the off and she was 6/1 SP. I was able to lay off some of my bet at 6.8 on Betfair I think just about the time of the false start - which was a big surprise given what was happening.

T7

* It's all right Ma, I'm only bleeding

[terminal7]

As I suspected Some Neck is seriously contracting in the betting - only Bet365 offering 40/1 everywhere else it is 28/1 or 33/1. Hopefully some of you on at 66/1 and if it makes the cut on Thursday you should be able to green book at 33/1 or below and have a 33/1 bet running to nothing. If it fails to make the cut you get your money back.

Incidentally I understand that the very young very promising but very inexperienced Simon Torrens is jocked up. He rides for JP McManus on lightweights so clearly is well though off and clearly can make the low weight SN is carrying.

T7

Just read in the RP SN has been chosen as one of the more likely outsiders

[Beerpig]

Yes, SN is a lively outsider.
It seems to me that having wiped the floor with the English horses at Cheltenham the Irish horses will win this race too.
They will have so many lines of form from where they can select a handful of primely trained horses from a host to take the spoils- a bit like the Ballydoyle outfit do on the flat.
I reckon the winner will be
(i) Irish Trained
(ii) Carrying less than 11 stone
(iii) Aged 9-11 (probably 10)

I think I shall bet on all the horses that fit this category and report after the race.
It will certainly be interesting to see how many of them fill the first 6 places.
The course is not the monster it once was and while there are still casualties (many through no fault of their own) there are less and less and the cream usually rises to the top.

[nimnarb]

Are they announcing tomorrow the final 40? I believe so but just checking. Also think it was mentioned from someone that the going would be soft but heard that its drying out quickly?