Boris or no Boris

[nimnarb]

Watching this from afar, in or out? If over 100 votes against him, even though I think it takes 180 votes, will he have the big bricks to continue? Didn't May have the majority in her favour but decided to leave as there were so many not in support of her? And if he goes, who on earth is capable, plus the damage it will do for the Party? Don't follow this too closely, so intrigued.

FWIW, I say about 75 against, bwdik? Nothing.

[Hallucigenia]

FWIW, I say about 75 against, bwdik? Nothing.

Already being discussed a fair bit on this thread :
viewtopic.php?f=99&t=34637&start=160

FWIW if you reckon 75 against, Betfair will give you 13.5 if you're right. But the betting seems to be pointing to around 140 or so - the rebels claim to have 150 voting against him, and 157 have come out in public supporting him. So it's going to be close either way but the bookies seem to be convinced that he's done enough to survive.

[nimnarb]

ok. thx.

[pje16]

The latest publicly declared support and opposition for Boris Johnson among Conservative MPs stands as follows, according to the BBCs political research unit:
Confidence in Johnson to remain as PM: 155
No confidence: 43
Other Conservative MPs have not stated their position on the prime minister's future.

20:48
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-60289386

[UncleEbenezer]

Other Conservative MPs have not stated their position on the prime minister's future.

Keep your counsel. Wait until the result is known, so you can explain how you backed the winner all along.

One of the oldest tricks in the book.

[Lanark]

Boris won the vote so we have him for another year at least.

359 votes were cast. There were no spoilt ballots.

Confidence in Boris Johnson: 211

No confidence in Johnson: 148

That means more than 40% of Tory MPs voted against Johnson.

[Lootman]

Boris won the vote so we have him for another year at least.

359 votes were cast. There were no spoilt ballots.

Confidence in Boris Johnson: 211

No confidence in Johnson: 148

That means more than 40% of Tory MPs voted against Johnson.

Or alternatively that nearly 60% are fine with Boris. 60% is typically regarded as a landslide win in an election.

Of course if you are the kind of person who doesn't accept a 52% win, then you probably aren't going to accept a 59% win either.

I think you are right about "another year". I always thought Boris would go in mid-2023, to allow another leader to prepare for the election in no more than 30 months from now.

[Dod101]

Boris won the vote so we have him for another year at least.

359 votes were cast. There were no spoilt ballots.

Confidence in Boris Johnson: 211

No confidence in Johnson: 148

That means more than 40% of Tory MPs voted against Johnson.

Or alternatively that nearly 60% are fine with Boris. 60% is typically regarded as a landslide win in an election.

Of course if you are the kind of person who doesn't accept a 52% win, then you probably aren't going to accept a 59% win either.

I think you are right about "another year". I always thought Boris would go in mid-2023, to allow another leader to prepare for the election in no more than 30 months from now.

Many of the 60% with Boris are of course with the job he provides for them, as government ministers, so on pure arithmetic it is difficult for a sitting PM to be dislodged given the patronage he holds.

Dod

[Lootman]

Boris won the vote so we have him for another year at least.

359 votes were cast. There were no spoilt ballots.

Confidence in Boris Johnson: 211

No confidence in Johnson: 148

That means more than 40% of Tory MPs voted against Johnson.

Or alternatively that nearly 60% are fine with Boris. 60% is typically regarded as a landslide win in an election.

Of course if you are the kind of person who doesn't accept a 52% win, then you probably aren't going to accept a 59% win either.

I think you are right about "another year". I always thought Boris would go in mid-2023, to allow another leader to prepare for the election in no more than 30 months from now.

Many of the 60% with Boris are of course with the job he provides for them, as government ministers, so on pure arithmetic it is difficult for a sitting PM to be dislodged given the patronage he holds.

Fair point. But then it should be difficult to dislodge the boss. We are not Italy.

I think there have been only two changes of leader via a VONC in my lifetime. When Maggie became leader and when she lost the leadership. The former was whilst in opposition of course.

[Mike4]

Or alternatively that nearly 60% are fine with Boris. 60% is typically regarded as a landslide win in an election.

Lol you are funny sometimes! That is hardly an analogy.

For only 60% of your own party to vote for you is damning failure. Let the Labour and other non-conservative MPs in the house also vote in the VOC and you'd have something closer to your election analogy.

[Lootman]

Or alternatively that nearly 60% are fine with Boris. 60% is typically regarded as a landslide win in an election.

Lol you are funny sometimes! That is hardly an analogy.

For only 60% of your own party to vote for you is damning failure. Let the Labour and other non-conservative MPs in the housT also vote in the VOC and you'd have something closer to your election analogy.

The opposition parties could conspire with disaffected Tories to defeat an important bill in the Commons. That would lead to a no confidence vote in the government.

So what you describe can happen now, but it doesn't.

3 out of every 5 Tory MPs support Boris. That is a decent enough wodge for another year or so.

[pje16]

Of course if you are the kind of person who doesn't accept a 52% win

and there ARE a LOT of whingers about who don't understand that any number over 50% is a majority

[servodude]

Or alternatively that nearly 60% are fine with Boris. 60% is typically regarded as a landslide win in an election.

Lol you are funny sometimes! That is hardly an analogy.

For only 60% of your own party to vote for you is damning failure. Let the Labour and other non-conservative MPs in the housT also vote in the VOC and you'd have something closer to your election analogy.

The opposition parties could conspire with disaffected Tories to defeat an important bill in the Commons. That would lead to a no confidence vote in the government.

So what you describe can happen now, but it doesn't.

3 out of every 5 Tory MPs support Boris. That is a decent enough wodge for another year or so.

It's a brilliant result for Boris; well done Boris!

If it means they're saddled with him for at least another year, it's a brilliant result for the opposition; well done Boris!

If it got Nadine Doris to bribe them in public by letting everyone know that they'd lose donations to the tune if 18million quid, it's a brilliant result for transparency; well done Boris!

If Boris lasts longer than May did after her humiliation at a VOC, it's a great advert for Eton; well done Boris!

I guess humiliation must be a irregulaly gendered noun in English perhaps we could ask Jacob Rees-Mogg? though he was very evasive when interviewed regarding the comparison.

Then again he does come across as todying obsequious self-contradictory fud

-sd

[Lootman]

Of course if you are the kind of person who doesn't accept a 52% win

and there ARE a LOT of whingers about who don't understand that any number over 50% is a majority

I think it divides into at least 4 classes.

1) Those who simply deny that they lost (Gore in 2000, Trump in 2020).
2) Those who admit that technically they lost but the vote was rigged, gerrymandered, bought (take your pick)
3) Those who admit they lost but claim the other side "has no mandate" (Remainers)
4) Those who think the voters for the other side are "stupid" and so their vote should count for less (Remainers)

Then there was Corbyn's infamous: "We won the argument but lost the election"

Never under-estimate the ability of losers to come up with excuses and rationalisations.

It's a brilliant result for Boris; well done Boris!

No. But it is a "good enough for government work" result for Boris.

[Hallucigenia]

I think there have been only two changes of leader via a VONC in my lifetime. When Maggie became leader and when she lost the leadership. The former was whilst in opposition of course.

You might want to bear in mind that of the recent VONCs - Thatcher, Major, May - the Tories went on to win the elections where the leader ended up getting replaced, and lost the election where he didn't. You don't get a VONC in the first place unless a large chunk of the party recognise that there's a serious problem - and a leadership that pretends everything's OK is doomed to lead the party to defeat.

Yesterday was a terrific day for the Opposition, less so for the Tories - I guess it depends whether your loyalty is to Johnson or the Tories.

[JohnB]

General: Only 40% of my army have mutinied, and the officers I promoted put up with me. Onward to victory!

Duncan Smith lost a VONC, BTW

[Lootman]

I think there have been only two changes of leader via a VONC in my lifetime. When Maggie became leader and when she lost the leadership. The former was whilst in opposition of course.

You might want to bear in mind that of the recent VONCs - Thatcher, Major, May - the Tories went on to win the elections where the leader ended up getting replaced, and lost the election where he didn't. You don't get a VONC in the first place unless a large chunk of the party recognise that there's a serious problem - and a leadership that pretends everything's OK is doomed to lead the party to defeat.

Yesterday was a terrific day for the Opposition, less so for the Tories - I guess it depends whether your loyalty is to Johnson or the Tories.

That's an easy one. My loyalty is to Labour remaining in opposition and continuing to be powerless.

Eyes on the prize; whatever gets the job done.

But yesterday means a more orderly transition of leadership, and that may be a good thing. Boris is toast long-term but tactically this outcome may work out.

[pje16]

Yesterday was a terrific day for the Opposition

Yep - marvellous... they are still the opposition

[CliffEdge]

You don't have to be a member of the Conservative party to join the Conservative club, and sometimes you get cheap beer and free parking.

[pje16]

and sometimes you get cheap beer and free parking.

Good to see that drinking and driving is promoted