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Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

Including Financial Independence and Retiring Early (FIRE)
Quint
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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#269087

Postby Quint » December 4th, 2019, 5:41 pm

Joe45 wrote:I've read the book in question, and it's not bad; it provides some food for thought in the determination of a sensible investment and draw-down strategy.

My general philosophy on investing is to read, read and then read some more. You can never be too well informed. There are lots of books available and plenty of useful blogs (Monevator has been mentioned already, Early Retirement Now is a good one).

I'm a big fan of low-cost, buy-and-hold index investing.


With reference to the OP. What is your strategy for taking income from this portfolio. I assume if you buy and hold then you must live off the natural yield?

Hariseldon58
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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#269721

Postby Hariseldon58 » December 6th, 2019, 8:40 pm

My sympathies to the OP, it’s an alarming task to face but it looks like you have the right idea, you have time, your doing research and can form a plan.


Another interesting book...

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Living-Off-Your-Money-Retirement/dp/0997403403/ref=mp_s_a_1_1?keywords=living+off+your+money&qid=1575662450&sprefix=living+off+&sr=8-1

But so complex...

A really great book about investing is

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Rational-Expectations-Allocation-Investing-Adults-ebook/dp/B00KSPCY24/ref=mp_s_a_1_1?keywords=investing+for+rational+adults&qid=1575662835&sr=8-1

I spent 17 years to reach early retirement and 12 years living off my investments and 5 years to go for the state pension.

So much effort, reading , spreadsheets but it has worked out well. I have decided to simplify my approach and I think if I started again, I would keep it simple from the start !!

As the Americans say “KISS” so my approach going forward

Sufficient safe assets to cover basic living costs for a period of say 5 years and an investment portfolio, with a bias to passive and global.

A sensible starting point is to divide the period between the age you retire and the oldest you expect it is possible to live to and divide the value of your investment portfolio by this number of years.

So 100 is a pretty good age to get too ( both parents are alive and in mid 90’s, so 100 for me is probably unlikely but not impossible ) ie 100-61=39, 1/39 is a starting point for drawdown.

I would modify that on the basis you want to live and spend more now and it looks like spending declines markedly post 85, given a growth target of inflation is not too demanding with decades to go, I chose to deduct current age from 90, thus my rough and ready guide would be a 3.4% drawdown.

In bad times spend a bit less and you have a reserve anyway. If the pot grows spectacularly well, drawdown a bonus and enjoy!

A global tracker is a pretty good investment vehicle and I have decided to add a global high dividend passive tracker (VHYL) as a value play and a reassuring bit of yield for the bad times...

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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#269913

Postby Gilgongo » December 8th, 2019, 8:57 am

Hariseldon58 wrote:A sensible starting point is to divide the period between the age you retire and the oldest you expect it is possible to live to and divide the value of your investment portfolio by this number of years.


Interesting - but I'm not sure I understand. Do you mean that's a calculation of a safe withdrawal rate (eg 1/39th of £1,000,000 is £25,641)? So once your portfolio hits that level (and presumably it meets your income needs) you go into drawdown using that figure?

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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#270015

Postby TahiPanasDua » December 9th, 2019, 6:55 am

DOD wrote:"Let me reassure you and others in the same situation. I worked abroad for most of my adult life and instead of my employer providing me with a guaranteed pension for life, I, like my expat colleagues, was given a lump sum, what in my day was called a provident fund, maybe still is. So I had my own 'pension freedom' whether I liked it or not. We were given no info or guidance, just paid out and goodbye, have a good retirement. After taking a few months to get myself sorted out in what to me was a foreign country (the UK) I set about trying to invest my PF. The only thing I knew was that I was not going to hand it over to some insurance company in exchange for an annuity. After a lot of trial and error (I had never heard of The Motley Fool and The Lemon Fool did not exist then) I settled in to a pattern with my investment portfolio and now almost exactly 25 years later I have much more capital than I started with and have a good income. I live entirely off my dividends plus the State pension (which I use as a travel fund)

I have been in retirement through the dot com boom and bust in 2000/1 and the financial crisis of 2008/9 with no problems to speak of. I am self taught if that is the right expression, conservative I think and a patient, long term investor. There are a lot of things I would have done differently, but that applies to life in general, not just to investing.

My advice would be to read as much as you can (these Boards will undoubtedly help), but not to worry too much. You will develop an investment philosophy in time although it will probably cost you one or two investment mistakes to do so.

Good luck and do not waste a lot of time worrying about it.

Dod


Excellent advice from DOD.

I was in a similar position to DOD and followed a similar strategy but it all went horribly wrong.

As an expat for 42 years, I had no pension, not even the UK old age one. During this period I worked on a project by project basis in 8 countries. Like DOD, I was paid lump sums after each contract. I realized early on that I needed to invest the cash for retirement. I read a lot (but not enough) and gradually began to really enjoy the process.

As DOD says, it is inevitable that we make mistakes as part of the learning process. I made 2 whoppers. I was grossly overexposed to Asia and foolishly thought I knew all you needed to know.

Then came the Asian Financial Crisis, and I was wiped out. To compound matters, I was diagnosed with the dreaded lurgy and lost my profession and therefore my income. Nightmare on Elm Street comes easily to mind.

Having suddenly all the time in the world, I took to reading as much as I could and this helped a lot. However, I deemed I had to take terrifying risks to claw back some of the lost cash. The cautious passive dividend investing that I now use was no use to someone with no cash or income. I devised a strategy which terrifies me to this day but desperation was the greater influence.

Fortunately, I was able to get it all back and more. Why my strategy was so successful I will never really know but tend to think it was some combination of careful-ish high risk taking, patience to wait very long periods for the right timing and, yes, successive doses of good luck. I worked exclusively with macro market moves. I am proof, at least to myself, that you can indeed time markets some of the time but couldn't dream of doing anything so scary again. For sure my come-uppance was always just around the corner and I knew it.

So what is the point of repeating this sorry tale again? Don't get overconfident at any time and keep learning but in the highly unlikely event that the worst happens, don't despair. You will always find a way out.

TP2

Dod101
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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#270029

Postby Dod101 » December 9th, 2019, 8:22 am

And following on from TP2, if an expat make sure you pay Class 3 contributions whilst working abroad!

Dod

TahiPanasDua
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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#270032

Postby TahiPanasDua » December 9th, 2019, 8:29 am

Dod101 wrote:And following on from TP2, if an expat make sure you pay Class 3 contributions whilst working abroad!

Dod

Absolutely. By the time I got the message I was too old to make the minimum number of contributions. Another morality tale here: Don't put off starting!

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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#275485

Postby Joe45 » January 6th, 2020, 11:53 am

Quint wrote:
Joe45 wrote:I've read the book in question, and it's not bad; it provides some food for thought in the determination of a sensible investment and draw-down strategy.

My general philosophy on investing is to read, read and then read some more. You can never be too well informed. There are lots of books available and plenty of useful blogs (Monevator has been mentioned already, Early Retirement Now is a good one).

I'm a big fan of low-cost, buy-and-hold index investing.


With reference to the OP. What is your strategy for taking income from this portfolio. I assume if you buy and hold then you must live off the natural yield?

I'm still in the accumulation phase and spending a lot of time thinking about drawdown strategies. I don't agree with the 'natural yield' approach and look at total return only. There is plenty of discussion about natural yield, but in essence, there is no magic to a dividend. It is simply a partial liquidation of a company's assets and the issue of a dividend will be reflected in the share price.

Chrysalis
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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#275501

Postby Chrysalis » January 6th, 2020, 12:44 pm

Gilgongo wrote:
Hariseldon58 wrote:A sensible starting point is to divide the period between the age you retire and the oldest you expect it is possible to live to and divide the value of your investment portfolio by this number of years.


Interesting - but I'm not sure I understand. Do you mean that's a calculation of a safe withdrawal rate (eg 1/39th of £1,000,000 is £25,641)? So once your portfolio hits that level (and presumably it meets your income needs) you go into drawdown using that figure?


No, he’s saying divide up your stash by the number of years you expect to live off it and take that percentage (which can vary year by year). It should end up being a pretty safe/cautious withdrawal guide as it essentially assumes your assets grow only in line with inflation. I suspect that this method method might end up with you underspending in the early years, but that’s a common problem with all methods designed to be ‘safe’.

Quint
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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#275846

Postby Quint » January 7th, 2020, 8:35 pm

Joe45 wrote:
Quint wrote:
Joe45 wrote:I've read the book in question, and it's not bad; it provides some food for thought in the determination of a sensible investment and draw-down strategy.

My general philosophy on investing is to read, read and then read some more. You can never be too well informed. There are lots of books available and plenty of useful blogs (Monevator has been mentioned already, Early Retirement Now is a good one).

I'm a big fan of low-cost, buy-and-hold index investing.


With reference to the OP. What is your strategy for taking income from this portfolio. I assume if you buy and hold then you must live off the natural yield?

I'm still in the accumulation phase and spending a lot of time thinking about drawdown strategies. I don't agree with the 'natural yield' approach and look at total return only. There is plenty of discussion about natural yield, but in essence, there is no magic to a dividend. It is simply a partial liquidation of a company's assets and the issue of a dividend will be reflected in the share price.


The point i was making is that buy and hold means you do not sell, correct. If you are selling to take an income then then you are not buy and hold you are hold and sell. Nothing wrong with that as long as you have a plan for when we have a prolonged downturn and you still need your income.

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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#275860

Postby xxd09 » January 7th, 2020, 9:56 pm

Aged 73-retd 17 years
I consider the difference between dividends/income and capital growth a matter of semantics
Big dividends=low capital growth and vice versa
My two Trackers (Equity and Bond) are in Accumulation mode ie dividends reinvested
Now that I am retired I sell “chunks of shares” as required to top up my Cash account( for day to day expenses)-keeping my required Asset Allocation intact
Simple cheap and easy to understand
Usually requires just one sale a year
That’s it
xxd09
PS plan for prolonged downturn-Always keep over 2years daily expenses in cash-enough?
Worked through 2001,2008.

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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#275979

Postby Gilgongo » January 8th, 2020, 4:42 pm

xxd09 wrote:I sell “chunks of shares” as required to top up my Cash account( for day to day expenses)-keeping my required Asset Allocation intact
Simple cheap and easy to understand


I'm equally worried about leaving money on the table by being too cautious as I am running out of it being profligate. Hence my interest in what others might decry as "complicated" draw down strategies based on historical data to ensure an optimum rate of withdrawal. I worked hard for the money I've saved and I'm (reluctantly) resigned to work hard to spend it. Albeit once a year :P

So right now I'm thinking my (evidence-based) strategy will be as follows:

Draw down 3.5% of portfolio at point of retirement (in my case that's about £30K to cover £25K living costs) from the highest performing assets that year (out of stocks, bonds, gold, cash - I suppose I'll have to benchmark each asset to determine that). Do the same for all subsequent years, adjusting the £ amount by the CIPH inflation measure. So if next year it's 2% then I'll draw down £30,600 from the highest-performing holdings that year.

That might mean I end up heavily invested in stocks after a few years of a crash, but I'd hope to sell some to re-balance on subsequent upswings.

BTW interesting you only have two investments. That seems like rather a good idea. I've got a 25-share HYP, an LuniBasket of 7 and a clutch of five ITs and a gold ETF. And that's not including what my wife's got!

Interesting solution to the dividend/natural yield conundrum you have too. Not sure how dividends fit into my strategy exactly unless I use them for re-balancing. Wonder if that might work?

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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#275982

Postby xxd09 » January 8th, 2020, 4:57 pm

I seemed to have managed on a 3.7% withdrawal rate over the last 17 years-mostly selling from the equity side as the stock market has been doing well but I have sold bonds too
I sell as I invested to keep my required Asset Allocation ( could be selling some equities and some bonds together but it is usually one or the other)
A 30/65/5 split seems to have worked out OK as well
Will it be enough going forward-who knows?
xxd09

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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#276110

Postby Gilgongo » January 9th, 2020, 9:27 am

xxd09 wrote:Will it be enough going forward-who knows?
xxd09


Quite. You can I think test this against historical stock market performances (albeit US-centric) using http://www.cfiresim.com. What I don't know is whether it simulates my proposed rule of selling down the best performing assets in any given drawdown period. But in terms of the question they pose ("If the market does no worse than the great depression, 1970's stagflation, or the dotcom bust, will my money last in retirement?") it's a decent forecast I think.

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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#279635

Postby Joe45 » January 24th, 2020, 11:01 am

xxd09 wrote:I seemed to have managed on a 3.7% withdrawal rate over the last 17 years-mostly selling from the equity side as the stock market has been doing well but I have sold bonds too
I sell as I invested to keep my required Asset Allocation ( could be selling some equities and some bonds together but it is usually one or the other)
A 30/65/5 split seems to have worked out OK as well
Will it be enough going forward-who knows?
xxd09

This is pretty much exactly what I plan to do when I retire in 12 months' time, albeit with different asset allocations. I plan to hold 3-4 years' of non-discretionary living expenses as cash, with the rest as 70% equities and 30% bonds. I will re-balance twice annually.

My entire portfolio is in low-cost global tracker funds, held as far as possible as accumulation units in SIPP and ISAs. Funds held in taxable accounts are in income units only in order to make tax returns easier.

It's worth looking at Ty Bernicke's Reality Retirement Planning model on Firecalc which allows higher early withdrawals, reducing until the age of 72. This matches typical spending patterns in retirement.

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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#279804

Postby xxd09 » January 24th, 2020, 11:38 pm

Interestingly Vanguard has produced a recent Withdrawal paper showing that over a reasonable term -ie 10/20 yrs a 70/30 split does much the same as a 30/70 split
Food for thought -30/70 is obviously less volatile-less sleepless nights!
xxd09

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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#279826

Postby Chrysalis » January 25th, 2020, 8:42 am

Do you have a link to that paper?

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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#279827

Postby Urbandreamer » January 25th, 2020, 8:48 am

xxd09 wrote:Interestingly Vanguard has produced a recent Withdrawal paper showing that over a reasonable term -ie 10/20 yrs a 70/30 split does much the same as a 30/70 split
Food for thought -30/70 is obviously less volatile-less sleepless nights!
xxd09


Two point's
.
1) Can you provide a link?
2) Is 10/20 years a reasonable term?

If you work until state retirement date of 67 (probably), then 20 years takes you to age 87. That's longer than AGVERAGE life expectancy for a gent, but less than the average for a lady. Also, as I indicated, it's an average. A recent study showed that 41% (so less than average) of men lived until 90. Again more than that "reasonable" term.

Everyone's circumstances and intentions are different, however I'm budgeting to retire at 60 and live till 100. Hence for me less than 20 years can't be described as "reasonable". I need to plan for a term that is double or quadruple that "reasonable" length. Sure, I probably won't make 100, but I won't be kicking myself for not working those extra 7 years at 80 or feeling sorry for myself that I'm not in the fortunate half of men that die before 79.2yr .

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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#279835

Postby xxd09 » January 25th, 2020, 9:37 am

Not good at linking -sorry but if you google “ Bogleheads variable percentage withdrawals “- you should find it
xxd09

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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#279854

Postby Itsallaguess » January 25th, 2020, 10:35 am

xxd09 wrote:
Interestingly Vanguard has produced a recent Withdrawal paper showing that over a reasonable term -ie 10/20 yrs a 70/30 split does much the same as a 30/70 split

Food for thought -30/70 is obviously less volatile-less sleepless nights!


The most recent document from Vanguard that I can find, dated 31st December 2019, doesn't seem to show that -

https://advisors.vanguard.com/iwe/pdf/FASINVMP.pdf

The above article consistently indicates that over the different types of Series being discussed, and across all the time-scales investigated (1yr / 3yr / 10yr / Since inception), every single return figure is greater for the 70/30 allocation over the 30/70 allocation, and often by a very wide margin.

The closest performance match that I can see from the above document is the 5.71% return for the 'Since inception' figure of the 30/70 Income Series, which is quite close to the 6.03% return shown for the 70/30 allocation over the same period, but that's an outlier really, given the many other much wider differences in return given for the same 30/70 vs 70/30 comparisons of all the other Series and against all the other time-scales, so I'd be wary of using a single data-point such as that to indicate anything more general in the comparisons of those two allocation tilts.

I should say that I don't think the above paper is the one you're talking about, but given that it's a recent study, and given the large number of data-points, then I thought it was worth mentioning given that the results in this Vanguard document don't seem to match the other Vanguard paper that you're highlighting above.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Retirement income strategies - a book at bedtime

#279876

Postby xxd09 » January 25th, 2020, 12:16 pm

No that’s not the paper I was referring to-apologies for my lack of technical expertise !
xxd09


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