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CLimate change and pension investment

Including Financial Independence and Retiring Early (FIRE)
jonesa1
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Re: CLimate change and pension investment

#411149

Postby jonesa1 » May 11th, 2021, 6:46 pm

tjh290633 wrote:Global warming theories are largely spouted by people who are paid to produce them.


And climate change denial is largely the preserve of the ignorant.

Moosehoosenew
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Re: CLimate change and pension investment

#411176

Postby Moosehoosenew » May 11th, 2021, 8:44 pm

This is a huge macro topic, but why is it now bigger than trying to work out how the behaviour of Russia, China and middle east states might affect investment planning?

I of course do not have an answer but (still) look to global funds to reduce risk.

Dod101
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Re: CLimate change and pension investment

#411178

Postby Dod101 » May 11th, 2021, 8:46 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I would hope that sub consciously we recognise the impact without having to sit down and draw up a blue print for what might happen. Few of us will be investing in buggy whips for instance nor I hope in too many coal mines. OTOH many of us will one way or another be investing in the likes of Tesla. As to what will happen to the likes of Shell? I do not know. It is still a big important company and I cover my back by continuing to invest but only within a diversified portfolio.

In other words, whilst I am aware of changes taking place, I do not feel that I am in a position to see the future and tend to make changes at the stock specific level as and when it seems to me to be required.

I think it is a fair question though, especially if you have a multi decade investment horizon.

Dod

We have to recognise that coal is essential for some metallurgical processes, and that oil is a valuable feedstock for the production of many plastics. Miners will have to deliver the raw materials needed for batteries, semiconductors, etc.

Tesla is an overblown hyped up outfit. Their ideas of autonomous driving are crazy. They might fit interstate highways, but Devonian lanes with high hedges are way out of their class. Currently it is a cult.

Global warming theories are largely spouted by people who are paid to produce them. Somebody will no doubt put the cold April down to the lack of aircraft putting CO2 into the atmosphere. But that probably caused the warm March, because of less water vapour in the atmosphere.

TJH


I am pretty close to your vintage and share some of your scepticism but if less water vapour caused the warm March what has caused the cold April and May? There is still a huge lack of aircraft putting CO2 into the atmosphere.

Dod

XFool
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Re: CLimate change and pension investment

#411293

Postby XFool » May 12th, 2021, 10:54 am

Dod101 wrote:I am pretty close to your vintage and share some of your scepticism but if less water vapour caused the warm March what has caused the cold April and May? There is still a huge lack of aircraft putting CO2 into the atmosphere.

Err... Weather?

XFool
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Re: CLimate change and pension investment

#411302

Postby XFool » May 12th, 2021, 11:11 am

tjh290633 wrote:Global warming theories are largely spouted by people who are paid to produce them.

I generally file away comments like that in my "True But Pointless" file!

Let's try it out:

Food is largely produced by farmers who are paid for producing it
Medical procedures are largely carried out by people who are paid to practice medicine
Science research is largely done by people who are paid to do scientific research
Climate change denial propaganda was largely originated by people who benefited from the hydrocarbon industry


See? It 'works'. :)

tjh290633 wrote:Somebody will no doubt put the cold April down to the lack of aircraft putting CO2 into the atmosphere. But that probably caused the warm March, because of less water vapour in the atmosphere.

Whereas, somebody else might feel the northern hemisphere isn't the entire globe, still less for Europe, even less for an island just off the north coast of Europe. Why! The same person might even feel that the weather in one month in March or April isn't the same thing as the average global climate trend over the last 100 years or so.

And I wasn't even paid for spouting that. :lol:

BhotiPila
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Re: CLimate change and pension investment

#411372

Postby BhotiPila » May 12th, 2021, 2:04 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
Global warming theories are largely spouted by people who are paid to produce them. Somebody will no doubt put the cold April down to the lack of aircraft putting CO2 into the atmosphere. But that probably caused the warm March, because of less water vapour in the atmosphere.

TJH


Hello?! Donald?

Or, both could simply be weather, always unpredictable on these islands. Or, they could maybe be influenced by long term trends and the rather more erratic meandering behaviour of the Northern Polar Jet Stream these days, possibly itself a result of complex weather and temperature-related climate behaviour which most of us don't understand . . . . . . . . .

Yes, and not forgetting the excessively cold winters in North America (also influenced by the Northern Polar Jet Stream), or the droughts and wild fires in West Coast U.S, or the unusually severe droughts, wildfires and floods in Australia which now threaten the very viability of long-established bush lifestyles, or the burning of Brazilian rainforests and savanna, the heatwaves in SE England with the associated invasions of lavender and grape crops, the unusual flooding events across England, the invasion of locusts into the Horn and East Africa, drought and crop-loss in the Tigris-Euphrates basin, the upward migration of mountain flora and fauna threatening the biodiversity of important crop species (e.g. Coffea arabica), the rising summer temperatures in India threatening the viability of key crop species such as maize, enhanced melting and reduction of summer ice in the Arctic which now allows passage of even un-hardened ships - we can kayak to the North Pole now, the melting and burning of tundra and forest fires in Siberia, or the measurable and accelerating reduction of glaciers across the world from the Alps and Antarctic to the Himalaya and Mountains of the Moon, and on and on . . . . .

But what does this perspective mean for my investments? Well, in my view, we will see a continued/accelerated move away from fossil fuels and plastics towards electricity and natural fibres. Oil remains important but can often be substituted by plant sources of organics, so major reductions in volumes of oil required over a 5-20 year horizon; I'm continuing to reduce small investments in Shell and BP but am hoping their prices will rise further in the short term; I wouldn't buy them now.
Don't know what to do about minerals, electrics needs specific minerals, seems to be a shortage of nickel, possibly copper; new sources of lithium being developed, rare earths important but some like Cobalt can be substituted. I do have BHP Billiton but its not very exciting - nearing its 2010-11 peak now and yielding 4.8%. I have been thinking about Antafagasta (Cu) for some time, but as usual, thinking was the wrong thing to do - it has gone up almost 200% since March last year it it has a low yield of 2.1%. I should also have invested in LG's BATG battery technology ETF 6 months ago, it has shot up, but I think it will probably continue to rise as pressure for better battery technology continues to grow and this gives a broad spread across minerals and technology - I bought a small holding yesterday to see what happens.
Forestry/trees/natural fibres become more important for building and packaging than plastics but how to invest in this? I have Smith DS packaging but they deal mainly with recycled cardboard and their performance has been disappointing, price is well below the 2018 peak, yield is less than 1% and I have lost almost 6% on purchase price - I am looking for a reason not to sell them! I recently bought James Latham (LTHM) as a punt on wood and housebuilding in the UK, the yield is low and flat but total return is reasonable, turnover and profit are growing slowly and share price has recently moved quite strongly upwards.
Agriculture is going through a technological revolution and I would like to invest in it but I don't know how; I hold Tate which is fairly pedestrian and still struggling towards its 2013 high, should benefit from BREXIT but seems to be far from the answer to climate change.
As for AI and IT the best I have come up with is the Vanguard US and All World trackers and Scottish Mortgage (SMT) which have all done ok. Are there any better ideas for AI and IT?

BP

tjh290633
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Re: CLimate change and pension investment

#411407

Postby tjh290633 » May 12th, 2021, 4:05 pm

XFool wrote:
Dod101 wrote:I am pretty close to your vintage and share some of your scepticism but if less water vapour caused the warm March what has caused the cold April and May? There is still a huge lack of aircraft putting CO2 into the atmosphere.

Err... Weather?

My comment is prompted by the fact that April had the lowest Average, minimum and maximm temperatures (outside our north-facing back door) since I started keeping records in 1980.

TJH

XFool
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Re: CLimate change and pension investment

#411413

Postby XFool » May 12th, 2021, 4:15 pm

tjh290633 wrote:My comment is prompted by the fact that April had the lowest Average, minimum and maximm temperatures (outside our north-facing back door) since I started keeping records in 1980.

I think I may be experiencing that déjà vu feeling, all over again. :)

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Re: CLimate change and pension investment

#412708

Postby WickedLester » May 17th, 2021, 1:00 pm

I have decided to put some of my money into targetting green industries, less because I am concerned by global warming and more because policy makers clearly are and this should drive growth.

Currently I have a small investment in Invinity Energy Systems which is showing a healthy profit and a more significant investment in Croppers which is already profitable. I hope both companies have good growth prospects.


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