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Fire accumulation getting harder

Including Financial Independence and Retiring Early (FIRE)
AWOL
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Re: Fire accumulation getting harder

#448568

Postby AWOL » October 7th, 2021, 3:39 pm

Adamski wrote:I think we've just had a golden 18 month period for fire investing, growth in personal saving in working from home and house prices. Had a bull run from April 2020 to August 2021. May continue, who knows? However think now good news may probably be in prices and markets may move sideways? Ok, worrying about a correction wrong way to invest. But.. had a super bull run last 18 months, plus recent house price boom. Surely cannot continue indefinitely, as always some trigger event will cause a correction.

Now got inflation fears, soaring energy prices, supply chain problems. Guess markets may continue to grow, but growth may be slower and linked in to earnings.

Which means retirement investing going to get more difficult to retire in your 30s or 40s, is it even plausible if you don't work in the City or some mega job or an inheritance? Think those got into investing in last 18 months should prepare psychologically ahead for pull backs, but doesn't mean holding cash as that obviously loses money v inflation.

Positive bit is salaries going up, economy bouncing back and all this cash got to make its way somewhere, guess that will still likely be the markets and houses. Anyone with similar thoughts?


I think the amount saved and time in the market are the biggest determinants of net worth at retirement for most people. Sure there are exceptions but the sure path is to save as much as you can without damaging the amount of fun you have while doing it for as long as you feel-like or need-to do it. Don't assume that having a plan means that life will follow that plan. Some of us don't choose when we retire and very few of us choose when retirement ends. We also cannot control the success and tragedies experienced by our loved ones but these effect the journey too.

I have lived through a number of "it'll never be this good again" periods and a good few "we'll never recover from this disaster" periods too. At the time the arguments seam compelling. There are always different combinations of circumstances that deliver reward and other combinations that punish and in a lifetime you'll rarely if ever see exactly the same combinations twice. Don't trust people that say here are all the ways that things went wrong in the past and if one avoids them one will avoid the next crisis because man has infinite capacity for screwing things up royally.

Every stock market tumble gives a reason not to worry because it takes the froth out of the market. Every bad day is an even better day if accumulating. Try not to worry too much about the good days and dance with joy at the crashes and corrections.

Just keep on saving what you can by sacrificing money that doesn't have that much utility. e.g. 40%+ tax money, or downsizing from £40 bottles of wine to £15 bottles. Get a cheaper hotel room on holiday but still go to the better restaurant, that kind of thing. Get an almost identical amount of joy whilst spreading the ability to have joy evenly through ones life. There's actually pleasure to be had from getting a bargain while others are spending multiples to get almost the same experience without the joy of getting more for less. Who doesn't love a slightly tired hotel with the friendlies manager in the world and the best home made local delicacies in town.

My personal objective is now to spend more, experience more, and worry less but that's because I am no longer accumulating. Last point, in my last 10 years working I accumulated more assets that at any other time thanks to compounding and the fact that my family situation meant I had less opportunities to spend frivolously so it's also never too late for those thinking they cannot win the retirement game.

Oh dammit, Columbo style... one last thing we all need less to live well than you think whilst working. The median disposable individual income in retirement is about £25k compared with about £30k in work. Without a mortgage and other earlier life expenses this is plenty. With a spouses income on top you can both live very nicely.

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Check this out if pondering what different amounts of money will be like... https://www.retirementlivingstandards.org.uk/

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Re: Fire accumulation getting harder

#448627

Postby JohnnyCyclops » October 7th, 2021, 9:36 pm

James wrote:I'm pretty sure there are reasons for many of those 30-something FIRErs all running YouTube channels pitching their Patreon accounts, advertising supported blogs, etc. They're still working, just not in a job.


Yes, I stumbled on one yesterday, and watched a few of his YouTube posts. Nothing rocket science, sound basic investing and planning advice (which many people DO need!), but he had some nifty editing, a sharply trimmed beard and intense blue eyes - all of which can add to the aura he know's his onions.

The tag line on one clip was "Retire in 10 years at 50, starting with nothing", yet as he worked through an example, calculated the monthly saving target, said 'unrealistic for most'(!) and added, over pictures of a happy grey-haired 50-something with an Apple laptop in a coffee shop 'You could downshift to say three days a week, to maintain some income in your 50s'. Hardly met the video title objective of 'Retire at 50!"

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Re: Fire accumulation getting harder

#448683

Postby AWOL » October 8th, 2021, 9:57 am

JohnnyCyclops wrote:
James wrote:I'm pretty sure there are reasons for many of those 30-something FIRErs all running YouTube channels pitching their Patreon accounts, advertising supported blogs, etc. They're still working, just not in a job.


Yes, I stumbled on one yesterday, and watched a few of his YouTube posts. Nothing rocket science, sound basic investing and planning advice (which many people DO need!), but he had some nifty editing, a sharply trimmed beard and intense blue eyes - all of which can add to the aura he know's his onions.

The tag line on one clip was "Retire in 10 years at 50, starting with nothing", yet as he worked through an example, calculated the monthly saving target, said 'unrealistic for most'(!) and added, over pictures of a happy grey-haired 50-something with an Apple laptop in a coffee shop 'You could downshift to say three days a week, to maintain some income in your 50s'. Hardly met the video title objective of 'Retire at 50!"


I more or less did this but without having heard of FIRE, lost my job instead of had a planned exit, and was lucky with the ten years (and also had a modest amount acquired before the 2008 crash to boost the recovery of my assets and a modest but important final salary pension). Ten year FIRE is possible if lucky but not something that I would plan on as future returns and sequence of returns can play havoc with plans. Personally I think most people are better off focussing on a plan that gets them to 60 and includes oversaving just in case life deals them a bad card in the 50s. That gives one resilience and optionality both of which are invaluable.

Being FIREd at a time of someone else's choosing is then a non-issue and gives choices like going back to work (because you are good at what you do and like it) or not going back because you're really a hermit/adventurer at heart. Another reason FIRE advocates have "side hustles" as they call them other than for money is because they feel a need to work as our professions give us purpose, direction and the joys of succeeding at tasks. A lot of retirees in the first few years of retirement (mainly first two) will tell you the short answer that they are doing well but if they know you well enough will later confess to having a bit of difficulty adjusting to not working. These Youtube video people don't talk about this adjustment or how work for most people may have a mix of joy and strife but is a source of satisfaction. They don't talk about how having a vastly different retirement date from your spouse or dependent children (these can arrive mid accumulation!) can limit the freedoms of retirement. Now, don't take this as me saying retirement or early retirement is bad or that everyone is the same but do take it as me saying that FIRE advocates often miss the context which defines your retirement experience more than the size of your "pot".

However I still hate those smug pictures of "a happy grey-haired 50-something with an Apple laptop in a coffee shop ". Does anyone else feel instantly repelled from whatever is being sold by this smug, fit, handsome, aura-of-wealth gits in these photographs? Especially if they are laughing into the eyes of their life partner with his/her smug shiny grey hair and piercing blue eyes with perhaps bikes visible just outside the window because they are active and smug. You just know their children and grandchildren are away advertising yoghurt while the daughter in law dreams of roller skating while a singer screeches about the joys of feminine hygiene products.

Do let me know if I sound like the grumpy real git that is the real fate of retirees :lol:


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