Gen Z

[James]

On most, if not all of those measures I would expect the 20 year old today to have the opportunity to match and likely better their predecessor generations.

Gen X was defined by being the first to be materially worse off than it parents. Their predecessors, the Boomers, were obviously better off than the Great Generation.
And yet, as a Gen X, I am far better off than my 1930s born parents. I wasn't at 20-30, but over the course of a lifetime I've earned more than they could have dreamed of, both in absolute and relative terms.
So, yeah, little sympathy for the yoof of today. It's always difficult at the start, but generally, they're in as good a place as any of us have been.

[James]

Then why do they keep killing themselves? If they were happier then the suicide rate would be decreasing rather than increasing, especially with much more advanced health care for handling mental illness such as depression or treating the fallout from overdose.

In the UK the suicide rate has roughly been the same since the 2000's

source: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7749/

I may be reading that graph wrong, but it seem to show that suicide rates have fallen by 25% among men and halved among women since 1981. That is, the previous generation were far more affected by it than the current one. Is that what you were trying to demonstrate?

[Wuffle]

Gilongo,

In an attempt to add clarity to my earlier post....
We appear to be transitioning from a situation where you had a legit final salary pension (life expectancy allowed it post war - they thought), to a situation where 'my home is my pension' ( leveraged from your early 20s into decades of falling interest rates) to a situation where 'my nan is my pension' (the undoubted benefits of previous generations accumulate).
The kids know who has all the money and that they just have to wait. And tolerate things like education going to 9 grand a year at almost the same time as the triple lock starting (2010).
The kids will be alright, but for different reasons.

W.

[dealtn]

On most, if not all of those measures I would expect the 20 year old today to have the opportunity to match and likely better their predecessor generations.

Then why do they keep killing themselves? If they were happier then the suicide rate would be decreasing rather than increasing, especially with much more advanced health care for handling mental illness such as depression or treating the fallout from overdose.

In the UK the suicide rate has roughly been the same since the 2000's

source: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7749/

I suppose you could argue that if the health improvements have had zero impact then people are just as suicidal despite large increases in use of the likes of anti depressants. Conversely you could say that more people are suicidal than before but a proportion of those dont kill themselves, keeping figures fairly static.
Image too large to post, see link below showing anti depressant use increasing multiple times per capita.
source: https://bjgpopen.org/content/5/4/BJGPO.2021.0020

In America:
The suicide rate for people aged 10 to 24 increased by 56% between 2007 to 2017, according to new data from the CDC.
https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-teenage-gen-z-american-suicide-epidemic?

You will have to trust me on this one but I take Mental Health extremely seriously, in all forms let alone the extreme result of suicide. My wife deals with this on a day to day basis.

However you appear to be arguing that suicide in the current generation is worse than previously, arguing against my claim that today's young adults in aggregate have opportunities of improvement over previous generations. Yet the very graph you produce to back up that argument clearly shows the opposite. Despite the continuing tragedies of suicide they are in fact lower per 100,000 than for previous generations.

I actually think suicide is too narrow a piece of evidence for cross-generational comparisons of "happiness" (and advances - or not - in treatments and drugs would need to be adjusted for too), but your counter argument I am struggling to understand.

[Wuffle]

Sorry, missed the 'g'.

W.

[moorfield]

One of our big priorities was to make sure our kids(3) had no student loans on exiting university
How they would ever manage to buy a house,marry and have kids etc… with this burden hanging over them from the get go beats me
Girls are particularly hard hit as they often have time out from work to have children
We did manage it,now all married with kids and no student loans!
I would seriously question the value of a degree if it inflicts such a life time load on a child
I do think parents should take on this cost if degrees are contemplated-We promised ours 5 years of study each -big burden for us but turned out to be worth it
xxd09

On a slight tangent here, Moorfield Jr#1 currently lower 6th, has already seen this problem coming and has pretty much decided to avoid university and aim to start working immediately through a degree apprenticeship. Their interest is in data science/maths/chemistry and having done a little research on this there seem to be plenty of top FTSE100 companies offering such schemes currently - GSK, AZN, ULVR, UU. I went to university in London, one of the last to receive the old student grant and the first to take a (small) student loan. I wouldn't want to be a student in London today.

[tjh290633]

In the UK the suicide rate has roughly been the same since the 2000's

source: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7749/

What does year of registration mean? At first sight that meant date of birth, but obviously not.

Age standardised rate? Is that 10-24 year-olds?

Talk about an obscure graph. My first thought was of suicides in 1 year old babes.

TJH

[vand]

Our kid is now 21 years old, and while I've mentioned saving and investing in the past to him, I thought I'd ask how his retirement fund was getting on. All casual like.

But then I considered:

1. He has approaching £35K of student loan debt: a tax on his future earnings.
2. The student loan makes it harder to save for a deposit on a house. He may be paying perhaps more than half his income on rent.
3. Points 1 and 2 mean he will have significantly less means to save for retirement.
4. Even if he did manage to save for a pension, annuities are rubbish and relying on the markets means you have to have a lot to cushion volatility.
5. The state pension is likely to be tiny and he may have to work until he's 80 before he gets it.

So I thought better of it as didn't fancy getting a smack in the mouth.

But does anyone have a different take on this (that doesn't involve spending less on Avocado toast)? I suppose some miracle might mean annuities make a comeback? UBI? What?

1. All other things equal, graduates have higher career earnings than non graduates.
2. Could move back home while saving for a deposit. I did. Many people I know did. It's an option.

4. Nobody buys an annuity any more. Since pensions freedom came into effect, it's all about drawdown and managing your own retirement pot.
5. OTOH the Triple lock means the SP should comfortable exceed the median wage by the time he gets to draw it

**

Sorry, but no generation has it handed to them on a plate. Yes there are difficulties for GenZ amassing wealth today, but there was for the Boomers, Xers, Yers, and everyone else.

Youngsters today have never had it so good in may ways-

- They benefit from higher life expectancy and realistically have a 45-50yr or longer investing horizon
- Low cost indexing has never been cheaper or easier
- There's a wealth of history and knowledge to draw from which simply wasn't available to previous generations

[absolutezero]

Wait til Generation Z's parents croak it.
They'll not be short of money then.

[xxd09]

Care home fees £50000 pa?
xxd09

[pje16]

Wait til Generation Z's parents croak it.

quite a wait.... with a top age of 25
How old do think their parents are

[Hariseldon58]

Student loans strike me as adults loading kids with adult responsibilities before they -due to their youth - are able to understand what they are getting into-this is not parenting as I understand it
xxd09

I think you are missing Gilongo's point. Student Loans may have a name which incorporates the word "Loan", but they are not a debt in the way that you are interpreting it. Loan is a misnomer IMO. They are more like a targeted tax. You get taxed the tax if you earn enough and if you are young enough. After about age 40 it is no longer payable. What other debt can you name that is linked to your income (not repayable if your income below a certain level) and only payable below the age of 40?

A more accurate name for the thing would be Graduate-Tax Funded Grant or some similar. So it seems to me that you deprived your offspring of a grant, or at best paid a huge lump sum up-front to relieve them of a bit of taxation in their 30s.

GS

I believe the loans can be written off but it looks more likely you are in your 50’s.

https://www.gov.uk/repaying-your-student-loan/when-your-student-loan-gets-written-off-or-cancelled

[Gilgongo]

On most, if not all of those measures I would expect the 20 year old today to have the opportunity to match and likely better their predecessor generations.

You're right of course. In fact, I myself had the "opportunity" to become the richest man in the word. I obviously didn't take it though - more fool me.

But Robert Colvile also writes about your point in The Times:

"The real question for Britain is not whether our economy has turned Japanese, but why it took us so long to notice."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/390d ... 9bd3a30c4a

That last line is ... a little odd. Colvile is the author of the 2017 Conservative manifesto, here saying the economy of the last decade has been a disaster for young people. Well, if only they had been in a position to do something about it... This is why, when somebody comes out of the woodwork to point out that our great grandfathers all died of scurvy and there were no caramel lattes in the 1920s, it's particularly annoying: in the far past they had no choice. But now we do. It could have been different.

[Gilgongo]

- They benefit from higher life expectancy and realistically have a 45-50yr or longer investing horizon
- Low cost indexing has never been cheaper or easier
- There's a wealth of history and knowledge to draw from which simply wasn't available to previous generations

Always good to get a counter-balance. So please provide citations for the above claims, as I have with mine. I agree with the third though, which I think supports my argument that Gen Z are worse off, because they also know it.

[Gilgongo]

The kids know who has all the money and that they just have to wait.

Again - my points about Gen Z are NOT all about retirement so doubt you've read much of the thread. That's OK it's just a bulletin board after all.

But just on this one aspect, I have to ask: are you joking?

[dealtn]

On most, if not all of those measures I would expect the 20 year old today to have the opportunity to match and likely better their predecessor generations.

You're right of course. In fact, I myself had the "opportunity" to become the richest man in the word. I obviously didn't take it though - more fool me.

But Robert Colvile also writes about your point in The Times:

"The real question for Britain is not whether our economy has turned Japanese, but why it took us so long to notice."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/390d ... 9bd3a30c4a

That last line is ... a little odd. Colvile is the author of the 2017 Conservative manifesto, here saying the economy of the last decade has been a disaster for young people. Well, if only they had been in a position to do something about it... This is why, when somebody comes out of the woodwork to point out that our great grandfathers all died of scurvy and there were no caramel lattes in the 1920s, it's particularly annoying: in the far past they had no choice. But now we do. It could have been different.

Presumably you are accusing me of being annoying, despite making no references to scurvy or caramel lattes etc. I have no idea what is in your quoted article as it sits behind a paywall I don't wish to cross. Perhaps provide an alternative or a precis of the specific issue. I studied, and worked, in the field of economics and its not obvious to me how the UK economy has turned what I would consider "Japanese".

All I did was point out that listing a load of negatives was counter productive to an argument, and indeed "annoying", when there are offsetting positives, and no acknowledgment that other prior generations also had an equally long list of negatives.

No doubt that is uncomfortable for you, and strays beyond the purpose of this board (chosen by you to conduct this debate) which is about Retirement Investing. What exactly is your issue with respect to Gen Z and Retirement Investing, as it appears to me the opportunities available to that generation are by many degrees more enjoyable than to most prior generations. The only obvious area where they are worse off is the absence of Final Salary Pension Schemes that often automatically came with remuneration packages, that now are very much the exception to new joiners.

[vand]

- They benefit from higher life expectancy and realistically have a 45-50yr or longer investing horizon
- Low cost indexing has never been cheaper or easier
- There's a wealth of history and knowledge to draw from which simply wasn't available to previous generations

Always good to get a counter-balance. So please provide citations for the above claims, as I have with mine. I agree with the third though, which I think supports my argument that Gen Z are worse off, because they also know it.

are you really contesting that the average 20yr old can expect to live longer than the average 50yr old as of today?

Increasing life expectancy is a trend that has been in place for centuries. Sure there is sometimes a pause or dip due to the odd war or global pandemic but the trend persist.

[anniesdad]

“Does anyone have a different take on it?”

Student debt not really a debt. More like an investment. In yourself. Or an indirect overhead. It’s necessary to get that job, do that career, to earn that salary. Maybe like a builder has to initially buy tools and then has an annual budget to replace them each year.

I never went to college / university and I’m neutral on it for my kids. I think the costs, the risks, the rewards need to be weighed up just like any other investment.

[James]

- They benefit from higher life expectancy and realistically have a 45-50yr or longer investing horizon
- Low cost indexing has never been cheaper or easier
- There's a wealth of history and knowledge to draw from which simply wasn't available to previous generations

Always good to get a counter-balance. So please provide citations for the above claims, as I have with mine. I agree with the third though, which I think supports my argument that Gen Z are worse off, because they also know it.

are you really contesting that the average 20yr old can expect to live longer than the average 50yr old as of today?

Increasing life expectancy is a trend that has been in place for centuries. Sure there is sometimes a pause or dip due to the odd war or global pandemic but the trend persist.

Increasing life expectancy has also been dragged up on average by improvements in infant and child mortality figures. The idea that there is a generation of future 120-year-olds that should be saving up for extended pensions is often based on misinterpretations of the stats.

A well-off person in 1500 could expect to live to 70. Now most can expect to live to 80. But that is due to changes in medicine preventing earlier deaths, not an extension of human lifespans.

[EthicsGradient]

Increasing life expectancy is a trend that has been in place for centuries. Sure there is sometimes a pause or dip due to the odd war or global pandemic but the trend persist.

Life expectancy figures by age and sex, since 1982, are available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... encetables



For a 20 year old male, it went up pretty linearly between 1982 and 2013. Since then, it's plateaued (the 2020 figure showing the Covid effect, I suspect).