chris wrote:Your alternative investor who is looking to sell assets to get an income should be buying growth shares to maximise his share valuation before he sells and therefore your suggestion that the two investors with different cash requirements buying the same sort of high yield share is a fallacious one, or if not, the one who sells to realise income has been badly advised to buy this stock. Therefore your 2 different investors are unlikely to be adopting the same strategy which undermines your argument, because you have not taken into account the way a financial instrument is valued by the market.
The argument I try to demonstrate has nothing to do with different types of shares, or groups of them. It is first important to understand the theory with identical shares. Investors have different cash needs for whatever reasons, and the Directors of the company invested in will be ignorant of that need, and will have hundreds, perhaps thousands, of investors all with individual cash needs. They won't be considering individual investors in their dividend decisions. Individual investors in those specific companies are able to "manufacture" (with some frictional cost) the exact optimal cash/equity outcome they want.
That's it. They aren't beholden to a group of (largely middle aged white men) Directors deciding their cash or income for them. Many times here we read of wonderful "income" stocks, and of individual investors so happy with all the dividends they receive they have excess cash for their current requirements with which they then reinvest (usually in more or the same shares). Rarely do we see any income investor arguing those Directors should pay out lessor sums to save the bother of that recycling activity. Those Directors should rightly ignore them if they do, of course. Those same posters have a vociferous opposition however to anyone suggesting, when cash dividend income falls short, that it can be satisfied by selling capital. There is an incomprehensible opposition when it is simply the other side of the same coin. It really is as simple as that.
Once it is understood that an investors cash/equity or "income" can be different to that of the company (or its Directors) then the whole issue of capital allocation, and the vastly larger universe of potential investments should be considered (which is the line of argument you appear to be taking). Why limit yourself (in one famous and popular strategy around these parts) to a small niche of large, UK, relatively high dividend paying, shares - and the risks associated with any form of niche investing, when the same income can be available (bar the frictional costs and time/work in portfolio management) from the entire universe of shares?
The market values shares on the basis of discounting, at the appropriate risk adjusted rate, all future cashflows. That can be at the corporate level, or the investor level through all future dividends. Some here prefer a model on the next dividend, or this years dividends, not all future dividends as the method of choice between potential share investments. Some have even argued the market does its valuation looking backwards "rewarding" past dividend policy. You won't find me among the population "not taking into account the way a financial instrument is valued by the market".