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What to top up and HYP strategy going forward

General discussions about equity high-yield income strategies
Charlottesquare
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Re: What to top up and HYP strategy going forward

#337606

Postby Charlottesquare » September 2nd, 2020, 11:51 am

Arborbridge wrote:
TopOfDaMornin wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:
One thing the HYP approach gets almost zero credit for, lost as it seems to be amongst the long stream of criticism over the years, is for acting as a stepping stone for many investors towards the more blended approach you've highlighted in your post, and I think that's a great shame really, because for many of us here that's exactly what it's been, and I think many of us are very grateful for that to have happened.

Itsallaguess


Well said. The HYP approach had helped me and others on the road to investing. Even if we now adopt other approaches.


I concur with that. HYP is meant for the unsophisticated investor, and it's a good way to get started - but more particularly a good way to secure an income stream, whilst maintaining capital.

Arb.


However one might suggest that HYP is far more sophisticated than buying ITs, the HYP investor surely has to have a decent understanding of accountancy to review his/her individual share purchases and given the size of statutory accounts needs to have a good idea where to look for the information he or she deems important, if one wants a starting route ought that not maybe be a collection of ITs or a tracker?

TopOfDaMornin
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Re: What to top up and HYP strategy going forward

#337609

Postby TopOfDaMornin » September 2nd, 2020, 11:55 am

Charlottesquare wrote:
TopOfDaMornin wrote:
I have no need that each and every holding has a high yield only that the portfolio as a whole has a 4% yield, that is I may have HFEL but I also have SMT or Fidelity China Spec Sits, both with pretty decent percentage gains over recent years.

In my opinion there is nothing that prevents a high yield strategy having a mix of high and low yielders providing the overall portfolio yield is above average (high), in my case that means overall aiming for 4% or higher and that includes the above two low yielders plus other low yielders like Monks, Mid Wynd and JP Morgan Emerging plus no yielders like Berkshire and JP Morgan Indian IT, despite holding these when last I checked my overall dividend yield was 4.05%.


I too am now reaching this conclusion. Wish I had reached it 10 years ago.

Off course, it opens the question, what is a 'well choosen IT'?

I too suspect , going forward, a world tracker, with dividend and drawdown may out perform my HYP. I bought VWRL earlier this year.


From reading this thread, I am still unclear on my next course of actions.

1. Sell some HYPs to buy the existing ITs (I feel about 35% ITs is about right) ? If so, should I sell part of the highest value HYP shares to bring them down to the mean? I would have to 'move' approx £35k of HYP into ITs. That seems a lot of selling but maybe best for the long term.

2. Buy new ITs focused on growth, or world tracker?

3. Do nothing? This is what I have done for the last 9 months. Not sure if this plan has worked.

The aim of the portfolio is steady annual income in 10 years time, mostly thru natural yield, but maybe thru part selling growth shares e.g. VWRL.


TDM


For what it is worth here is my current list that melded gives me just ahead of 4%, the holding are not equal, things like niche sector trusts/emerging markets /smaller companies tend to get smaller holdings and some like Mid Wynd and Monks are recent add on investments so are still very small until I add to the holdings- the bigger beasts tend to get bigger holdings (consequently Shell was an ouch moment)

Begbies Traynor
Braemar Shipping
Royal Dutch Shell
Smith (DS)
Unilever
Urban Logistics REIT
Warehouse REIT
Aberdeen Asian Fund
Aberdeen New Thai IT
Aberdeen Standard European Logistics
Athelney Trust
Berkshire Hathaway
Blackrock North American Income
City of London IT
Edinburgh investment Trust
European Assets Trust
Fidelity China Special Situation
Henderson Far East Income
Hipgnosis Songs Fund
JP Morgan Global Growth & Inc
International Biotech Trust
J P Morgan Emerge Markets
JP Morgan Indian Invest Trust
Merchants Trust
Mid Wynd IT
Monks IT
Murray International
North American IT
Schroder Oriental
Scottish Mortgage IT
VinaCapital Vietnam Op Fund
Cash in hand


Thank you for posting this. There does seem to be many ITs there, but like you say many of them cover different sectors.

Arborbridge
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Re: What to top up and HYP strategy going forward

#337612

Postby Arborbridge » September 2nd, 2020, 12:03 pm

Charlottesquare wrote:
However one might suggest that HYP is far more sophisticated than buying ITs, the HYP investor surely has to have a decent understanding of accountancy to review his/her individual share purchases and given the size of statutory accounts needs to have a good idea where to look for the information he or she deems important, if one wants a starting route ought that not maybe be a collection of ITs or a tracker?


Correct, and I guess many/most people would start off with OEICS or ITs. However, there comes a time when a few more adventurous souls might want to fly independently. HYP is good for those people and to get the best from it you need more knowledge. However, if one just follows the HYP routine method without knowing a thing about company accounts, you will still have a decent portfolio which will produce income - its primary purpose. It isn't necessary to learn to nuances of smoke and mirrors (that might even cause more confusion than ever) - the whole point is that it is meant to be for John Doe. The system depends for its efficacy on buying large stable companies, diversity and the portfolio effect. This mitigates many evils including not understanding accounts.

Arb.

PS I rarely bother with company reports these days, but I notice the holdings I have are not disimilar to your own. Too much obfuscation and exceptions for this and that in reports for me to waste time on, and they won't tell you some of the things you need to know.

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Re: What to top up and HYP strategy going forward

#337614

Postby TopOfDaMornin » September 2nd, 2020, 12:08 pm

May part sell:
BAE Systems
Diageo
SSE
Man Group
Tate and Lyle
Severn Trent
Taylor Wimpey
SEGRO
Legal and General Group
BHP Group
Rio Tinto
National Grid
AstraZeneca
British American Tobacco
Compass Group


In order to get the ITs to approx 30% of the portfolio, one option is to part sell 'over weight' shares i.e. the above. Then reinvest the money equally amongst the ITs.

I will ponder this as it represents the first 'tinkering' I have done in the HYP since conception over 15 years ago. Off course no one can tell if the ITs will outperformance the HYP and part selling the HYPs shares above does incurr cost.

Current ITs are:
BMO Global Smaller Companies
Bankers Inv Trust
City of London Inv Trust
Lowland Investment Co
Merchants Trust
Murray Income Trust
Regional REIT Limited
Scottish Mortgage Inv Trust
Temple Bar Inv Trust


TDM

torata
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Re: What to top up and HYP strategy going forward

#337618

Postby torata » September 2nd, 2020, 12:17 pm

TopOfDaMornin wrote:May part sell:
BAE Systems
Diageo
SSE
Man Group
Tate and Lyle
<Snip>

In order to get the ITs to approx 30% of the portfolio, one option is to part sell 'over weight' shares i.e. the above. Then reinvest the money equally amongst the ITs.


I think there needs to be a better rationale for selling a share other than by reason of being 'overweight'.
Overweight could be the result of good performance. Why cut your winners? BAE, Diagio, Tate & Lyle... seem like good solid shares (in this time of uncertainty) that I'd want to hold onto.
Personally I'd be more inclined to look at the underweight ones first.

torata

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Re: What to top up and HYP strategy going forward

#337623

Postby TopOfDaMornin » September 2nd, 2020, 12:33 pm

torata wrote:I think there needs to be a better rationale for selling a share other than by reason of being 'overweight'.
Overweight could be the result of good performance. Why cut your winners? BAE, Diagio, Tate & Lyle... seem like good solid shares (in this time of uncertainty) that I'd want to hold onto.
Personally I'd be more inclined to look at the underweight ones first.

torata


Selling all underweight shares (i.e. value less than £4,100) in order to raise £30,000 to invest in the ITs would mean selling:
HSBC Holdings
Lloyds Banking Group
Royal Mail
BT Group
Sainsbury (J)
Smith (DS)
BP
British Land Company
Marston's

I do not think there is an ideal solution.

TDM

Itsallaguess
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Re: What to top up and HYP strategy going forward

#337637

Postby Itsallaguess » September 2nd, 2020, 12:54 pm

TopOfDaMornin wrote:
I do not think there is an ideal solution.


There rarely is...

As I've swung my HYP capital away from single-shares and towards income-IT's, I've generally allowed myself to be driven by the current or forecast yields of the single-share holdings when I've been looking at selling requirements.

I've mostly been doing this over a number of years, selling down lower-yielding holdings in my un-sheltered account, where most of my single-share holdings were housed. This has meant that I've been able to carry out these transitions as part of my yearly tax-planning strategies, at the same time as helping to execute my transition towards more collective income-investments as well...

Given what are often quite natural swings in share-prices over the years, this has been relatively pain-free on the whole, as it's generally meant that for many of my single-share sales, the capital from them has been transitioned into the resulting income-IT's at a *generally* similar yield, and so I've never felt like there's been any noticable 'income shock' to deal with as the result of my transition plans.

Up to now, it looks like you've been concentrating on underweight or overweight capital values to perhaps guide your own possible transitions, but what happens if you look at yield instead, similar to the above process?

There have been a lot of smaller positives to the way I've been able to work through a similar process, but one of the bigger ones for me was with regards to being able to slide lumps of similarly-yielding capital from single-share holdings over into much broader income-IT's, at relatively little cost in terms of final income, but at a larger benefit with regards to reducing single-source risk....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

tjh290633
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Re: What to top up and HYP strategy going forward

#337697

Postby tjh290633 » September 2nd, 2020, 4:28 pm

Charlottesquare wrote:However one might suggest that HYP is far more sophisticated than buying ITs, the HYP investor surely has to have a decent understanding of accountancy to review his/her individual share purchases and given the size of statutory accounts needs to have a good idea where to look for the information he or she deems important, if one wants a starting route ought that not maybe be a collection of ITs or a tracker?

My starting route in 1959 was a Unit Trust, ironically Investment Trust Units, when I might have been better off investing in the trusts themselves. My first shareholdings came as an inheritance from my mother, but I carried on with the UT route until privatisations started, and then the introduction of PEPs in 1987 led me to move more into individual shareholdings.

ITs never seemed to get much attention in the press in those days, and of course trackers hadn't been invented.

We live and learn.

TJH

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Re: What to top up and HYP strategy going forward

#337702

Postby Charlottesquare » September 2nd, 2020, 4:50 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:However one might suggest that HYP is far more sophisticated than buying ITs, the HYP investor surely has to have a decent understanding of accountancy to review his/her individual share purchases and given the size of statutory accounts needs to have a good idea where to look for the information he or she deems important, if one wants a starting route ought that not maybe be a collection of ITs or a tracker?

My starting route in 1959 was a Unit Trust, ironically Investment Trust Units, when I might have been better off investing in the trusts themselves. My first shareholdings came as an inheritance from my mother, but I carried on with the UT route until privatisations started, and then the introduction of PEPs in 1987 led me to move more into individual shareholdings.

ITs never seemed to get much attention in the press in those days, and of course trackers hadn't been invented.

We live and learn.

TJH


The one thing I dislike about UTs is the need for the fund itself to stump up the cash every time someone wants to sell, as we saw after 2008 with some that were not liquid (property etc) their structure can prevent owners hanging tough in the bad times forcing sales at a low market point.

ITs I have always been comfortable with but perhaps that was because Edinburgh was home to a fair few .My former employer was a CA who at one time had been Company Secretary for Investors Capital Trust based in Charlotte Square and my father bought and sold quite a lot for the trusts his law firm managed- I do not go back to 1959 let alone buying investments then, I started stagging issues in the 1980s and moved on via trading shares, a bad foray into splits (my wife's suggestion, back then she was a Quant Analyst), an embrace of High Yield which I liked but in which I developed some reservations and then a move more and more towards ITs for their geographic range of investment but simple UK listing- in hindsight I probably ought to have done everything the other way round but my knowledge of accountancy probably fooled me into believing I could read accounts and sniff out value, however an analysis of what I had been doing persuaded me that whilst my trading worked, to a degree, on a risk reward basis I actually did better buying and doing very little, ITs are accordingly a move to my making a sloth look energetic.

88V8
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Re: What to top up and HYP strategy going forward

#337750

Postby 88V8 » September 2nd, 2020, 9:08 pm

tjh290633 wrote:Going back some way, to viewtopic.php?p=336881#p336881
88V8 wrote:What I'm buying is their reserves to see me past the divi drought.

If that is not assuming that their reserves are cash, I don't know what is.

Some interesting sidetracking and argument.

As I seem to have caused some of the sidetracking, yes it does sound as if I an referring to cash. A throwaway phrase open to misinterpretation.

As regards IT reserves , Here, however https://lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=24420 there was an extensive dissection which made it clear that they are not cash, but an accounting artifice.

Nevertheless, they represent a smoothing apparatus whereby ITs may if they choose maintain their dividends even though their inflow has diminished.
As has been said, some will choose not to do so.

I have been confining my IT buying to those I believe will continue come hell or high water, in order to defend their moat.
Why, because their moat is their track record of decades I repeat decades of unbroken dividend rises. This is not something that can be recreated if broken, not within an investing lifetime.

There are twelve ITs normally cited, City of London CTY 54 years, Bankers BNKR 53 years, Alliance ATST 53 years, Caledonia CLDN 53 years, BMO Global BGSC 50 years, F&C FCIT 49 years, Brunner BUT 48 years, Claverhouse JCH 47 years, Murray MUT 47 years, Witan WTAN 45 years, Scottish American SAIN 40 years, and Merchants MRCH with a mere 39 years although its reserves are not looking so healthy.

Of these, only four are worth considering for the high yield investor, imho:
CTY yielding 5.95%
MUT at 4.5%
JCH 6.4%
MRCH 7.7% albeit its reserves are low and the share price has been a falling knife.

These four are the ITs that I have been buying. Those investors who are happy that so long as the overall portfolio yield is high, some underpayers may be tolerated, could consider the other candidates. Their sub--3% yield does not float my boat, I must say.
I also hold BERI Blackrock Energy and HFEL for a bit of diversification, but do not intend to increase them atm.

Amongst the Heroes, I fully accept that divi increases in the medium term are likely to be modest, but even one missed divi would amount to significantly more than a few years of low rises.
And yes, they all fish in the same UK pond. In for a penny……….
And yes, they may end up paying me divis out of my own capital. But if I stick the capital in a cash account it will be eroded by inflation, and the merit of divis is that you can spend them, while the capital is just blips on a screen, and TR was a variety of sports car made by Triumph..

V8

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Re: What to top up and HYP strategy going forward

#337769

Postby 88V8 » September 2nd, 2020, 11:06 pm

TopOfDaMornin wrote:The portfolio has 2 goals. Firstly to create a rising income above the annual rate of RPI, and secondly, for the capital value to increase above the annual rate of a ‘good savings account’ e.g. 2% per annum.

Withdrawals will start in approximately 10 years time, and would represent my main retirement income. I do have other savings.

Ten years? Caramba. Another world.

Will dividends resume as before? Not in my view. When one considers how cover and dividend increase have declined in recent years, I believe that the CV19 shock will precipitate the inevitable, and see significant reductions in payout levels.

Will the tax environment remain the same? No, the Givt will at least increase dividend tax rates in line with income tax.

Will the Govt interfere more to deter dibvidend payments, as they are beginning to do with utilities? I fear so.

Then there's Trump, the rise of China, the EU's budget deficit, and Brexit, and indeed CV19....

All in all, I believe it is pointless to try and construct your retirement portfolio now, ten years ahead of time.
The best thing you can do now, is invest for growth.

Then, six months before you retire, begin to realign for income. You will not need to guess your way through ten years of imponderables, because they will have happened.

So, now, if you can pick individual growth stocks, go to it. Otherwise ITs, or a mix.

I will not offer specific suggestions for disposals or purchases, as I am not a growth investor.

But strategically, that is my two pennorth.

V8

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Re: What to top up and HYP strategy going forward

#337850

Postby tjh290633 » September 3rd, 2020, 10:24 am

88V8 wrote:All in all, I believe it is pointless to try and construct your retirement portfolio now, ten years ahead of time.
The best thing you can do now, is invest for growth.

Then, six months before you retire, begin to realign for income. You will not need to guess your way through ten years of imponderables, because they will have happened.

That might be too late. You have no idea how the market is going to perform next week, let alone 6 months before you retire.

At the very least you should be moving into income providing shares during that 10 year period. Dividend income is a lot less volatile than share prices.

TJH

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Re: What to top up and HYP strategy going forward

#337857

Postby Charlottesquare » September 3rd, 2020, 10:37 am

tjh290633 wrote:
88V8 wrote:
Dividend income is a lot less volatile than share prices.

TJH



Has been not is.

If there is a brave new world with lower dividends all around, which is a distinct possibility, then actual dividends could well fall across the board. Having said that there may well be few alternatives to produce retirement income so lower dividends may continue to be a better option than the alternatives, however if not the case , and if earnings start being more and more retained by companies, then a mix of dividends and piecemeal selling could become the new way to extract company earnings.

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Re: What to top up and HYP strategy going forward

#337859

Postby Alaric » September 3rd, 2020, 10:39 am

tjh290633 wrote:. Dividend income is a lot less volatile than share prices.


I think that has to be qualified by "usually". The last six months being a case in point.

According to ishares, the FTSE 100 had lost just under 14%(total return) in the year to 30th June 2020
https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/e ... f-inc-fund

The June 2020 distribution was 0.0426 in comparison to the June 2019 distribution of 0.1056. In other words it reduced to around 40% of its amount in the previous year.

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Re: What to top up and HYP strategy going forward

#337878

Postby dealtn » September 3rd, 2020, 11:19 am

tjh290633 wrote: Dividend income is a lot less volatile than share prices.

TJH

At a minimum you've missed out the word "usually".

Dividends are artificially set by a small group of directors, who have a reason for having a smooth, often gently rising, dividend stream. Share prices are set by the actions of many multiple participants. The actions of the latter determine the price constantly, and those actions will of course collectively have more volatility than a meeting held maybe 2-4 times a year by a few.

Now when the cumulative effect of many months worth of business, be that specific to the company, or a macro event like Covid, mean that the Directors are "forced" out of their "gently rising" pattern, that change in Dividend can be a lot more in magnitude, or volatile than the share price change. You're deluded if you believe otherwise.

There are plenty of examples of dividends being cancelled, or halved for instance, and not just covid related.

To be fair there are plenty of examples too of dividends commencing, or doubling too, but such events would be much rarer in the world of HYP, which this thread refers to, than it would in "growth" investing for instance.

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Re: What to top up and HYP strategy going forward

#337912

Postby tjh290633 » September 3rd, 2020, 12:53 pm

You are all looking at the last 6 months, and extrapolating from there. You might like to look at the market indices. The FTSE100 is some way below its value on 31st Dec 1999. It is also well below its recent peak.

TJH

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Re: What to top up and HYP strategy going forward

#339648

Postby TopOfDaMornin » September 11th, 2020, 11:14 am

I decided not to inject any new money to this portfolio but to sell and trim and re-invest. As previously mentioned this is the first time I have forcibly sold or trimmed shares in this portfolio. The reason for this is that I am moving from only HYP shares to a mix of HYP, ITs and world trackers. I think a total return approach would have and will compliment my HYP and perhaps would perform better. Money in retirement would come from firstly, natural yield of HYP shares and seconding annually selling of the growth investments e.g. 4% per year.

Due to dividend cuts I decided to sell:
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY)
Royal Mail (RMG)
BT Group (BT-A)
Compass Group (CPG)
Marston's (MARS)

Due to price rises I have trimmed:
BAE Systems (BA)
Tate and Lyle (TATE)
SEGRO (SGRO)
Legal and General Group (LGEN)
BHP Group (BHP)
Rio Tinto (RIO)
National Grid (NG)
AstraZeneca (AZN)

The new money has been equally distributed in the ITs I already have:
BMO Global Smaller Companies (BGSC)
Bankers Inv Trust (BNKR)
City of London Inv Trust (CTY)
Lowland Investment Co (LWI)
Merchants Trust (MRCH)
Murray Income Trust (MUT)
Regional REIT Limited (RGL)
Scottish Mortgage Inv Trust (SMT)
Temple Bar Inv Trust (TMPL)

This action has resulted in a forecasted dividend increase of 11% this year as compared to how it was pre-sale and trim.

TDM

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Re: What to top up and HYP strategy going forward

#339805

Postby Arborbridge » September 12th, 2020, 7:20 am

TopOfDaMornin wrote:I decided not to inject any new money to this portfolio but to sell and trim and re-invest. As previously mentioned this is the first time I have forcibly sold or trimmed shares in this portfolio. The reason for this is that I am moving from only HYP shares to a mix of HYP, ITs and world trackers. I think a total return approach would have and will compliment my HYP and perhaps would perform better. Money in retirement would come from firstly, natural yield of HYP shares and seconding annually selling of the growth investments e.g. 4% per year.

Due to dividend cuts I decided to sell:
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY)
Royal Mail (RMG)
BT Group (BT-A)
Compass Group (CPG)
Marston's (MARS)

Due to price rises I have trimmed:
BAE Systems (BA)
Tate and Lyle (TATE)
SEGRO (SGRO)
Legal and General Group (LGEN)
BHP Group (BHP)
Rio Tinto (RIO)
National Grid (NG)
AstraZeneca (AZN)

The new money has been equally distributed in the ITs I already have:
BMO Global Smaller Companies (BGSC)
Bankers Inv Trust (BNKR)
City of London Inv Trust (CTY)
Lowland Investment Co (LWI)
Merchants Trust (MRCH)
Murray Income Trust (MUT)
Regional REIT Limited (RGL)
Scottish Mortgage Inv Trust (SMT)
Temple Bar Inv Trust (TMPL)

This action has resulted in a forecasted dividend increase of 11% this year as compared to how it was pre-sale and trim.

TDM


Sounds like sensible actions and I can hardly argue against selling BT since I did that too! However, I've decided to sit back for a while on some of my other current non-payers, and even topped up one recently, namely D S Smith. I admire those who take decisive action, but I am by nature a slow tinkerer and prefer a slowmo approach, particularly with HYP which urges us never to alter things unless that is forced upon us.

I will eventually take action or slowly modifiy the portfolio if I believe dividends will never return to a particular company, but it's early days yet for most of them.

I have topped up a couple of ITs recently in addition to my HYP shares which were bought since lockdown.


Arb.


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