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Shell as a long term investment strategy

General discussions about equity high-yield income strategies
TUK020
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Shell as a long term investment strategy

#269825

Postby TUK020 » December 7th, 2019, 1:40 pm

Triggered by a discussion on the "HYP" board.

There was an assertion that Shell was not suitable as a longer term (as in when you are still building your portfolio) as the dividend has been held flat in nominal USD terms for 5 years (thus not holding even in real inflation adjusted terms), and that the capital value has not progressed in that time.

After considering this for a while, I decided that I have a slightly different take on this, but possibly not one to discuss on the "HYP" board.

Shell have a stable dividend, and the board has put considerable effort into never having to cut it. Enviable record. They are a large and stable company with global reach, and the balance sheet to weather short term storms.
Stable dividend for 5 years, but a share price that has varied, up and down, by a factor of 2:1 over this period., along with market sentiment.

A structured tinkering approach, a la TJH, can extract portfolio growth by topping up/top slicing on the share when its price varies from the portfolio median. It would be interesting to see how a tinkered portfolio of only such stable/low risk/megacap dividend payers would perform.

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Re: Shell as a long term investment strategy

#269839

Postby Dod101 » December 7th, 2019, 3:18 pm

TUK020 wrote:Triggered by a discussion on the "HYP" board.

There was an assertion that Shell was not suitable as a longer term (as in when you are still building your portfolio) as the dividend has been held flat in nominal USD terms for 5 years (thus not holding even in real inflation adjusted terms), and that the capital value has not progressed in that time.

After considering this for a while, I decided that I have a slightly different take on this, but possibly not one to discuss on the "HYP" board.

Shell have a stable dividend, and the board has put considerable effort into never having to cut it. Enviable record. They are a large and stable company with global reach, and the balance sheet to weather short term storms.
Stable dividend for 5 years, but a share price that has varied, up and down, by a factor of 2:1 over this period., along with market sentiment.

A structured tinkering approach, a la TJH, can extract portfolio growth by topping up/top slicing on the share when its price varies from the portfolio median. It would be interesting to see how a tinkered portfolio of only such stable/low risk/megacap dividend payers would perform.


I guess you are getting close to trying to time the market which as I understand it, TJH does not do, given his more or less mechanical method. I have done well at times with HSBC for instance where I have trading position at just under £6 and sold after a 10% rise in about three months. Nice profit if you can get it but I then have so far failed miserably when I bought in again when it fell back to around £6 because the new CEO has delivered an own goal by talking down its future prospects.

OTOH, if by structured you mean mechanical, then maybe there is something in it.

This year I top sliced both Unilever at £50 and AstraZeneca at £70. Unilever was a good idea, Astrazeneca less so. Maybe I am just not very good at it but I prefer my LTBH approach.

Dod

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Re: Shell as a long term investment strategy

#269861

Postby TUK020 » December 7th, 2019, 5:27 pm

Dod101 wrote:OTOH, if by structured you mean mechanical, then maybe there is something in it.


The more I have thought about TJH's approach, the more impressed I am by it.
By selecting his top slicing relative the median holding, and doing something similar with the HYPTUSS top up algorithm, he is in effect taking the 'market timing' out of the equation, as these decisions are not looking for absolute ups and downs.
Instead, the decision is being taken the variation in sentiment of a particular share relative to the portfolio as a whole, and just making a trade on outlier positions
Maybe, I am reading too much into it, but it seems a smart approach to using volatility to ratchet up gains

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Re: Shell as a long term investment strategy

#269880

Postby Arborbridge » December 7th, 2019, 8:31 pm

TUK020 wrote:Triggered by a discussion on the "HYP" board.

There was an assertion that Shell was not suitable as a longer term (as in when you are still building your portfolio) as the dividend has been held flat in nominal USD terms for 5 years (thus not holding even in real inflation adjusted terms), and that the capital value has not progressed in that time.

After considering this for a while, I decided that I have a slightly different take on this, but possibly not one to discuss on the "HYP" board.

Shell have a stable dividend, and the board has put considerable effort into never having to cut it. Enviable record. They are a large and stable company with global reach, and the balance sheet to weather short term storms.
Stable dividend for 5 years, but a share price that has varied, up and down, by a factor of 2:1 over this period., along with market sentiment.

A structured tinkering approach, a la TJH, can extract portfolio growth by topping up/top slicing on the share when its price varies from the portfolio median. It would be interesting to see how a tinkered portfolio of only such stable/low risk/megacap dividend payers would perform.


That depends on how tightly one draws the top-slice and buy back conditions. I don't believe I've been in the position to top slice Shell because it has never outgrown the portfolio in ten years, though I may have added a few times. The other part - selling when the yield is too low - does not happen too often either. Even when a share has a lower yield, flirting for a while on the selling point, it often gets saved because it is a solid payer - eg RB or DGE.

I can see what you mean, but the way the mechanism works, top slicing does not happen often, so maybe it isn't that significant as a mechanism. After all, if it happened often, it wouldn't be a LTBH portfolio, and not therefore, a HYP.

Arb.

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Re: Shell as a long term investment strategy

#269883

Postby Alaric » December 7th, 2019, 8:59 pm

TUK020 wrote:Stable dividend for 5 years, but a share price that has varied, up and down, by a factor of 2:1 over this period., along with market sentiment.


A dividend that looks much like the dividends arising from Preference Shares, but a share valued not only by reference to the dividend but also by reference to the ownership rights.

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Re: Shell as a long term investment strategy

#269888

Postby tjh290633 » December 7th, 2019, 9:57 pm

As my name has been taken in vain, I thought it prudent to check on the history of my holding in RDSB.

First bought in 2006 at £18.20, replacing BG Group which was sold because of very low yield, it was added to in 2007 at £16.91, then trimmed back in 2008 at £19.00. Added to again in 2010 at £17.26, it was again trimmed back in 2011 at £23.63. Since then there have been 4 toppings up, in 2013 at £23.08, and again at £21.52. Then in 2015 at £18.54 and in 2017 at £21.37.

The yield in 2006 was 3.77% with dividends denominated in Euro, changing to USD in 2007. In sterling they amounted to 68.54p, or $1.27. the dividend has been static at $1.88 since 2014. In sterling terms 146.65p for the last 4 quarters.

The IRR has been 7.65%, and had I just kept my original holding, it would have been 6.84%. The current share price is £21.66, having been over £26 in 2018.

TJH.

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Re: Shell as a long term investment strategy

#269909

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » December 8th, 2019, 7:33 am

TUK020 wrote:Triggered by a discussion on the "HYP" board.

There was an assertion that Shell was not suitable as a longer term (as in when you are still building your portfolio) as the dividend has been held flat in nominal USD terms for 5 years (thus not holding even in real inflation adjusted terms), and that the capital value has not progressed in that time.

After considering this for a while, I decided that I have a slightly different take on this, but possibly not one to discuss on the "HYP" board.

Shell have a stable dividend, and the board has put considerable effort into never having to cut it. Enviable record. They are a large and stable company with global reach, and the balance sheet to weather short term storms.
Stable dividend for 5 years, but a share price that has varied, up and down, by a factor of 2:1 over this period., along with market sentiment.

A structured tinkering approach, a la TJH, can extract portfolio growth by topping up/top slicing on the share when its price varies from the portfolio median. It would be interesting to see how a tinkered portfolio of only such stable/low risk/megacap dividend payers would perform.

I have a small amount of RDSB in my portfolio and I at 51 years old (+ wife at 46) quite possibly have a couple more of decades of investing ahead of us.

I have long term fears with RDSB, which I don't want to get at all political about, but because I see future horizons where oil+gas extraction reduces globally due to ongoing climate/green-energy issues. Just look at the trends in electric cars, wind and solar power etc.

I'm not sure whether I'm talking out of turn here, but don't they say "the trend is your friend?". But maybe the trend I fear is actually very long term i.e. outside Mel and I's investment lifetime? Perhaps I'm being overly alarmist?

For similar reasons we stepped out of holding in position in baccy companies (i.e. Imperial Brands IMB). I don't believe they are favoured "by the trend" so to speak.

Matt

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Re: Shell as a long term investment strategy

#269910

Postby TUK020 » December 8th, 2019, 7:55 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:I have long term fears with RDSB, which I don't want to get at all political about, but because I see future horizons where oil+gas extraction reduces globally due to ongoing climate/green-energy issues. Just look at the trends in electric cars, wind and solar power etc.


this topic has been discussed over on macro topics (don't worry, not the Elon Fan Club gigapost)
viewtopic.php?p=150834#p150834

Shell themselves have published a very good report on the long term energy transition with various scenarios. Our view of things like EVs tend to be coloured with a very first world perspective. In much of the world the electricity supply network needs to be put in place before EVs can be adopted. Actually, even in this country the Electricity Distribution Network will probably be the limiting factor in the uptake of low carbon technologies like EVs & Heating Pumps

Dod101
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Re: Shell as a long term investment strategy

#269912

Postby Dod101 » December 8th, 2019, 8:15 am

Taking tjh's numbers, Shell has not been much of an investment in the last few years, but maybe the mechanical buying and selling done by tjh is the way to go. I have held Shell more or less continuously for about the last 25 years and so have probably done rather better but cannot now find the records. The entire holding is safely in my ISA so I do not need these records for CGT calculations so it does not matter.

However for a high yield investor it seems to me that, like HSBC it is still worth holding. Shell management are obviously well aware of the trend in that they are buying into electricity.

Dod

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Re: Shell as a long term investment strategy

#269954

Postby TUK020 » December 8th, 2019, 12:42 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Putting it quite bluntly, if Shell and HSBC aren't worth buying for the long term at today's valuations then I think we can all look forward to a world inhabited solely by cockroaches. Not so the baccy firms, mind.

What are the other companies worth buying today for a non-cockroach scenario?

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Re: Shell as a long term investment strategy

#269969

Postby SDN123 » December 8th, 2019, 2:57 pm

TUK020 wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Putting it quite bluntly, if Shell and HSBC aren't worth buying for the long term at today's valuations then I think we can all look forward to a world inhabited solely by cockroaches. Not so the baccy firms, mind.

What are the other companies worth buying today for a non-cockroach scenario?


Rentokill :D

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Re: Shell as a long term investment strategy

#269975

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » December 8th, 2019, 4:24 pm

TUK020 wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:I have long term fears with RDSB, which I don't want to get at all political about, but because I see future horizons where oil+gas extraction reduces globally due to ongoing climate/green-energy issues. Just look at the trends in electric cars, wind and solar power etc.


this topic has been discussed over on macro topics (don't worry, not the Elon Fan Club gigapost)
viewtopic.php?p=150834#p150834

Shell themselves have published a very good report on the long term energy transition with various scenarios. Our view of things like EVs tend to be coloured with a very first world perspective. In much of the world the electricity supply network needs to be put in place before EVs can be adopted. Actually, even in this country the Electricity Distribution Network will probably be the limiting factor in the uptake of low carbon technologies like EVs & Heating Pumps

Thanks for the link that thread TUK,

If you're thinking Shell, perhaps now's the time:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... o-Oil.html

Matt

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Re: Shell as a long term investment strategy

#269986

Postby johnhemming » December 8th, 2019, 5:31 pm

It is important to remember that protests like the Yellow Vests in France are against action to deal with climate change (because they are protesting about increases in taxes on car fuel).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... ent-macron

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Re: Shell as a long term investment strategy

#270003

Postby dspp » December 8th, 2019, 10:03 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
TUK020 wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:I have long term fears with RDSB, which I don't want to get at all political about, but because I see future horizons where oil+gas extraction reduces globally due to ongoing climate/green-energy issues. Just look at the trends in electric cars, wind and solar power etc.


this topic has been discussed over on macro topics (don't worry, not the Elon Fan Club gigapost)
viewtopic.php?p=150834#p150834

Shell themselves have published a very good report on the long term energy transition with various scenarios. Our view of things like EVs tend to be coloured with a very first world perspective. In much of the world the electricity supply network needs to be put in place before EVs can be adopted. Actually, even in this country the Electricity Distribution Network will probably be the limiting factor in the uptake of low carbon technologies like EVs & Heating Pumps

Thanks for the link that thread TUK,

If you're thinking Shell, perhaps now's the time:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... o-Oil.html

Matt


It is quite possible to go EV with decentralised, even standalone, electricity networks. That may be the more cost-effective pathway for dispersed rural locations with no existing network (apart from the diesel network).

regards, dspp

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Re: Shell as a long term investment strategy

#270058

Postby dspp » December 9th, 2019, 10:44 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
dspp wrote:It is quite possible to go EV with decentralised, even standalone, electricity networks. That may be the more cost-effective pathway for dispersed rural locations with no existing network (apart from the diesel network).

regards, dspp

Perhaps I am not on my own when I wonder if the insanity so often induced in the name of "green-ness" will lead to some of the more remote areas of the UK perhaps having PHEV/BEV charging stations hooked up to diesel generators? More ridiculous things than that have happened in the past. With readily available un-taxed pink diesel/gas oil out there it's perhaps not as daft as some may first think.


I don't think you understood what I was referring to. Large parts of Africa have no electrical grid. Instead diesel fuel gets transported by truck and then burnt locally in generators. Those locations may never get connected to an African grid, instead they may get solar PV arrays and a very localised grid, supplying their local EV and etc needs. Same for other remote locations. No diesel fuel required.

dspp

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Re: Shell as a long term investment strategy

#270158

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » December 9th, 2019, 6:03 pm

TUK020 wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:I have long term fears with RDSB, which I don't want to get at all political about, but because I see future horizons where oil+gas extraction reduces globally due to ongoing climate/green-energy issues. Just look at the trends in electric cars, wind and solar power etc.


this topic has been discussed over on macro topics (don't worry, not the Elon Fan Club gigapost)
viewtopic.php?p=150834#p150834

Shell themselves have published a very good report on the long term energy transition with various scenarios. Our view of things like EVs tend to be coloured with a very first world perspective. In much of the world the electricity supply network needs to be put in place before EVs can be adopted. Actually, even in this country the Electricity Distribution Network will probably be the limiting factor in the uptake of low carbon technologies like EVs & Heating Pumps

Hi TUK

I started reading the transistion document:

From Shell's energy transition report

From page 23.
The Sky scenario, the most rapid transition, results in the lowest overall demand for oil, gas and coal in the long term. Oil demand grows 1% per year from 2020-25. It peaks around the middle of the decade and then falls by about 1% per year until about 2040.

Gas demand in Sky rises 2% per year between 2020-2025 and by 1.5% between 2025-2030. It peaks around the middle of the 2030s and falls by 0.5% per year for the rest of the decade.

This implies to that RDS will be non-growth for fossil fuels for oil by about 2026 and for gas by about 2035. So when do RDS need to have their non-fossil fuel assets generating 50% of their revenue by? 2030?

Matt

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Re: Shell as a long term investment strategy

#270169

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » December 9th, 2019, 6:27 pm

From page 46
We plan to increase earnings in our Chemicals business from $2.6 billion in 2017 to between $3.5 billion and $4.0 billion per year by 2025. We expect strong demand growth for chemicals in the medium term, mostly because of economic growth and demand for the everyday products that petrochemicals help produce. Chemicals can also help deliver some of the materials that will help the energy transition – such as high-performance insulation for homes and light plastic parts in cars and planes that can help save energy. Petrochemicals are also ingredients for components in energy-efficient lighting and low-temperature detergents.

Bearing in mind that plastic-substitutes are currently en vogue, is this such a great idea?

Some positivity from page 55:
Selling the output from 200 large offshore wind farms the size of our planned Borssele wind farm in the North Sea.

Selling the fuel produced by 25 biofuel companies the size of our joint venture Raízen in Brazil.

Selling enough electricity on our forecourts around the world to meet three times the total demand for power in the Netherlands.

Developing the capacity of 20 CCS plants the size of our Quest CCS plant in Canada.

Planting forests the size of Spain to act as a carbon sink for emissions that still exist.


The commitment to capture is good. But presumably all these alternative energy sources will need to the scale to size of the petro-energy business....in about 10 years time.

Matt

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Re: Shell as a long term investment strategy

#270174

Postby TUK020 » December 9th, 2019, 6:33 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Hi TUK

I started reading the transistion document:

From Shell's energy transition report

From page 23.
The Sky scenario, the most rapid transition, results in the lowest overall demand for oil, gas and coal in the long term. Oil demand grows 1% per year from 2020-25. It peaks around the middle of the decade and then falls by about 1% per year until about 2040.

Gas demand in Sky rises 2% per year between 2020-2025 and by 1.5% between 2025-2030. It peaks around the middle of the 2030s and falls by 0.5% per year for the rest of the decade.

This implies to that RDS will be non-growth for fossil fuels for oil by about 2026 and for gas by about 2035. So when do RDS need to have their non-fossil fuel assets generating 50% of their revenue by? 2030?

Matt


Matt,
a) this is the most rapid scenario
b) Shell have made a major repositioning of their business oriented towards gas rather than oil/petrol.
In light of this, I think their deadline for 50% non-fossil is probably more 2035-2040, than 2030.

This actually gives an organisation famous for forward planning plenty of room for re-inventing themselves again (this business started by selling seashells). The other point is that their business model involves vast amounts of capex just to stand still, and they could easily re-orient the target of that investment.
Given their deep sea engineering expertise, financial muscle etc, they could probably move to dominate offshore wind generation. I'm sure they have this and many other options under consideration. Hell, for all we know they are just waiting for Corbyn to be confined to the history books before buying National Grid.
Don't know what their gameplan is, but I am comfortable that they will have one (well several).
tuk

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Re: Shell as a long term investment strategy

#270261

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » December 10th, 2019, 6:40 am

Hi TUK,

TUK020 wrote:a) this is the most rapid scenario

It is according to RDSs recently published proposals, for sure. But whether this reflects what will actually need to be done for them to remain viable for the next two or three decades is less definite. I'm very interested in the debate, and we do have roughly 3.3% of our foli in RDSB. They are certainly cheaper now than they were when we bought them earlier on this year (at about £24 ps then IIRC).

This actually gives an organisation famous for forward planning plenty of room for re-inventing themselves again (this business started by selling seashells).

Their history is interesting for sure:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Dutch_Shell#Origins
However for the last 110 years they have been ostensibly in petro-energy and chemicals. Presumably the amalgation with Shell Transport in 1907 was desirable for the transportation opportunities not for the Sea shells per se.

The other point is that their business model involves vast amounts of capex just to stand still, and they could easily re-orient the target of that investment. Given their deep sea engineering expertise, financial muscle etc, they could probably move to dominate offshore wind generation. I'm sure they have this and many other options under consideration.

Definitely I totally agree. I imagine considerable % of capex is needed to replace and maintain high pressure+temperature equipment. This could be reemployed into land purchases and installation of wind-gen, or ethanol production resources (my Dad worked in BP and we used to discuss alcohol production from sea kelp and sugar cane back in the day....IDK if that's still considered a viable alternative ICE fuel now?).

Hell, for all we know they are just waiting for Corbyn to be confined to the history books before buying National Grid.

That would be a great plan. However NG. operating cash flow is considerably less than theirs, so they would need to be making several such investments/redeployments etc. over the next decade and a half:


(Note NG.'s figures are in £ whereas RDSs are in $ so the difference is not quite as marked. Both sets in Millions)
(BTW I grabbed the figures from here and here.)

Matt

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Re: Shell as a long term investment strategy

#286326

Postby 77ss » February 24th, 2020, 12:50 am

TUK020 wrote:Triggered by a discussion on the "HYP" board.

There was an assertion that Shell was not suitable as a longer term (as in when you are still building your portfolio) as the dividend has been held flat in nominal USD terms for 5 years (thus not holding even in real inflation adjusted terms), and that the capital value has not progressed in that time.

After considering this for a while, I decided that I have a slightly different take on this, but possibly not one to discuss on the "HYP" board.

Shell have a stable dividend, and the board has put considerable effort into never having to cut it. Enviable record. They are a large and stable company with global reach, and the balance sheet to weather short term storms.
Stable dividend for 5 years, but a share price that has varied, up and down, by a factor of 2:1 over this period., along with market sentiment.

A structured tinkering approach, a la TJH, can extract portfolio growth by topping up/top slicing on the share when its price varies from the portfolio median. It would be interesting to see how a tinkered portfolio of only such stable/low risk/megacap dividend payers would perform.


A belated response. I can't offer such a 'tinkered portfolio', but I think it is the way to go with RDSB (and ULVR, AZN, RIO....). I hope that the dividend is secure - given its level - nearly 8%, I really don't care one whit if it is static. The days of 'never sell Shell' may be gone but top-slicing/topping-up surely has its place. A bit more work of course, which won't suit all.

FWIT, I cut my holding by 23% in 2018-9 at an average price of 2425p and made a 13% top-up last week at 1941p. The repurchase may not be wise (time will tell) but the overall process sure as hell beats doing nothing.


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