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AstraZeneca thoughts

General discussions about equity high-yield income strategies
SDN123
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Re: AstraZeneca thoughts

#284354

Postby SDN123 » February 14th, 2020, 5:58 pm

Dod101 wrote:Whoever heard of a company downplaying their profits for political reasons?
Dod


That one made me smile :-)

I'm pretty sure that recently many UK utilities downplayed their profits for political reasons because there seemed to be a decent possibility of a Corbin led government. In my view very sensibly so too.

I have no idea if this applies to AstraZeneca though.

Dod, I know you won't, but please don't that personally, keep on posting so that I can keep on learning.

I'll go back to sleep now :-)

SDN

Dod101
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Re: AstraZeneca thoughts

#284371

Postby Dod101 » February 14th, 2020, 8:07 pm

You may be right SDN123. I really do not know but I guess the utilities are a special case. Most managements though would if they could want to talk up their profits now talk them down and I am fairly confident that Astra is not talking them down. They simply are not there.

You are not going to learn a lot from me I am sorry to say. We are all on a learning curve!

Dod

Julian
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Re: AstraZeneca thoughts

#284455

Postby Julian » February 15th, 2020, 10:32 am

Arborbridge wrote:
88V8 wrote:
I shall cling to my HYP, perch on the shrinking raft, buoyed by outriggers of Fixed Interest and a few ITs. I believe HYP remains viable as a component of a mixed investment buoyancy bag.
But realistically, the HYP golden age, when AZN was a regular Luni pick, is gone. At least for the time being.

V8



But ITs - at least income ones - face the same problem as HYP, so there's no respite there, unless the are just better at it than we are. And going global isn't much help, because yields are generally worse abroad and the anti-dividend thrust is likely to be global anyway since the inter-generational feud is the same.


Arb.

Not necessarily Arb, it depends on how the managers define an “income IT”. If it’s viewed only on the basis of its output, i.e. if the IT pays out dividends at a sufficient level to give it a yield sufficient for it to be considered an income IT then managers using that definition would be perfectly entitled to throw in growth stocks from which they intend to harvest capital gains in order to finance the dividend distributions. If however a manager considers that, in order for his/her IT to be classed as an income IT it must be able to fund its divi distributions entirely from divis from the underlying investments, then you have a point.

I’m not sure if there are any industry guidelines on that one. Can anyone self-classify themselves as an income IT on the basis of yield and regardless of underlying investment strategy? Is there a benchmark for yield (some non-integer multiple of FTSE100 yield for instance) than needs to be met in terms of being classified as an income IT or is it entirely down to the managers to self-classify?

On AZN I was amazed recently to see the capital appreciation in my holding. I first bought in 2008 with top-ups through to 2011 and haven’t bought since. At the last close of 7,300 vs my section 104 price of 2,749 I’m showing a 265% increase. With so much capital gain in the price I can forgive AZN a static dividend since, now that I am no longer a pure HYP investor, I can easily top-slice gains to supplement the income I can prudently (in my judgement) harvest from AZN.

V8 - I love your suspicions about Arb’s HYP and spreadsheets. For the record, I think you might just have rumbled me too and I’m only half joking! I really enjoy building the various spreadsheets I have for monitoring my investments.

- Julian

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Re: AstraZeneca thoughts

#285164

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » February 18th, 2020, 12:29 pm

When I updated my figures recently, AstraZeneca showed a 315% capital gain for me since 1998 and has returned 146% of its book cost in dividends. The dividend per share has risen at a 8.7% CAGR and the share price a 6.7% CAGR. Looking at the share price, its return over the period has been very healthy.

However, it's a tale of two decades and two halves.

The average ROCE since 2000 has been 23%, varying from 34.5% in 2000 to a peak of 43.6% in 2011 and 6.8% in 2019.

The average operating margin since 2000 has been 23.4%, varying from 21.9% in 2000 to a peak of 38.1% in 2011 and 12% in 2019.

The dividend has also been held flat in dollar terms since 2011. It is the strong dividend growth in the 2000s which means the dividend per share shows such a healthy CAGR over the entire period.

They held the dividend as they went off a patent cliff, building up debt as they did so. However, net borrowing is forecast to fall to 86% of EBITDA by 2022. What will make AZN attractive in the 2020s is if they can generate an improved operating margin; improve return on capital employed; produce true free cash flow and benefit from the pipeline which they have been developing.

Best wishes

Mark.


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