Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to Wasron,jfgw,Rhyd6,eyeball08,Wondergirly, for Donating to support the site

BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

General discussions about equity high-yield income strategies
Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10439
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3644 times
Been thanked: 5272 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#307606

Postby Arborbridge » May 11th, 2020, 1:57 pm

Wizard wrote:
That is an interesting point I do not recall hearing before, do you know where it was said, was it in any follow up article in TMF post the Doris one which still seemed to solidly stick to LTBH?


I'm sorry, no I cannot - I am not so good at finding these historic things. Maybe itsallaguess or someone more practised in the art can find something, but I am fairly certain that it is right: he did alter the no tinker guideline, but only in certain limited circumstances.

However, in the context of HYP1, it would certainly not apply since it was intended to be a no-tinker experiment.

Arb.

Breelander
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4179
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:42 pm
Has thanked: 1002 times
Been thanked: 1855 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#307672

Postby Breelander » May 11th, 2020, 4:56 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Wizard wrote:
That is an interesting point I do not recall hearing before, do you know where it was said, was it in any follow up article in TMF post the Doris one which still seemed to solidly stick to LTBH?


I'm sorry, no I cannot - I am not so good at finding these historic things. Maybe itsallaguess or someone more practised in the art can find something...
Arb.


Here's one....


Stephen Bland (2003) wrote:... many readers on the HYP discussion board have expressed themselves to be uncomfortable with the idea of a total lack of trading. I see two main situations where trading can be desirable. One is where a share cuts, or maybe even merely holds, its dividend and the other is where it has risen very strongly thus reducing the running yield so that in both cases, a better income could be obtained by selling and reinvesting in a higher yielder if a suitable choice is available -- not always that easy.
https://web.archive.org/web/20111224174 ... 031212.htm

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10439
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3644 times
Been thanked: 5272 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#307679

Postby Arborbridge » May 11th, 2020, 5:12 pm

Breelander wrote:
Here's one....


Stephen Bland (2003) wrote:... many readers on the HYP discussion board have expressed themselves to be uncomfortable with the idea of a total lack of trading. I see two main situations where trading can be desirable. One is where a share cuts, or maybe even merely holds, its dividend and the other is where it has risen very strongly thus reducing the running yield so that in both cases, a better income could be obtained by selling and reinvesting in a higher yielder if a suitable choice is available -- not always that easy.
https://web.archive.org/web/20111224174 ... 031212.htm


Thanks Bree. That is worth reading in its own right to see some of Stephen's views, though it isn't the piece I remember particularly - I think what I saw was written later. However, there are some interesting quutes throughout that piece, for example, he writes:
"They are just my ideas and I am not suggesting this is the only way to go for HYPs. Clearly everyone who runs an HYP will do it their own way in any event but since I write about the strategy, I write about my preferred way while realising naturally that it will not suit everyone. "

Arb.

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10439
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3644 times
Been thanked: 5272 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#307682

Postby Arborbridge » May 11th, 2020, 5:17 pm

tjh290633 wrote:Having just had a look at viewtopic.php?p=95702#p95702 I see that HYP1 still contained Lloyds Banking Group, Mitchells and Butlers and Dixons Carphone Warehouse, and the link from there to https://imgur.com/onwguKf shows how many of the constituents did not pay dividends, yet were retained. Indeed the only disposal in the 10 years shown was Ladbrooks in 2017, replaced by Glaxo.

He may have said that culling was allowed, but he certainly did not practice it.

TJH


Terry, Specifically on the point about the advisability of remaining invested in BT: I notice you haven't commented on your own position. I take it that you will continue to hold, or at least, will for the moment.

Arb.

tjh290633
Lemon Half
Posts: 8289
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 919 times
Been thanked: 4138 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#307689

Postby tjh290633 » May 11th, 2020, 5:40 pm

Arborbridge wrote:Terry, Specifically on the point about the advisability of remaining invested in BT: I notice you haven't commented on your own position. I take it that you will continue to hold, or at least, will for the moment.

Arb.

At this time I have no plans to dispose of any of my cutters, including BT. I am inclined to wait for the next round of results, or even the one after that, before making a judgement. There are two factors which might affect their position. One is a significant increase in interest rates, which would solve the pension fund problems. The other is the prospect of increased revenue as 5G progresses.

TJH

bluedonkey
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1809
Joined: November 13th, 2016, 3:41 pm
Has thanked: 1417 times
Been thanked: 652 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#308077

Postby bluedonkey » May 12th, 2020, 6:00 pm

My BT holding is now only 1% of the portfolio value. It used to be more ...

So selling the holding and reinvesting elsewhere will probably therefore have only a negligible effect on the portfolio performance.

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10439
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3644 times
Been thanked: 5272 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#308093

Postby Arborbridge » May 12th, 2020, 6:49 pm

bluedonkey wrote:My BT holding is now only 1% of the portfolio value. It used to be more ...

So selling the holding and reinvesting elsewhere will probably therefore have only a negligible effect on the portfolio performance.


yes, that's about the truth of it in these circumstances. I've been torn between holding on to a small holding because it isn't worth selling, or alternatively, selling it because it's fiddling nuisance in the spreadsheet which doesn't justify its place.

Fortunately, not in this case.

Wizard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2829
Joined: November 7th, 2016, 8:22 am
Has thanked: 68 times
Been thanked: 1029 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#308160

Postby Wizard » May 13th, 2020, 8:10 am

Breelander wrote:Here's one....

Stephen Bland (2003) wrote:... many readers on the HYP discussion board have expressed themselves to be uncomfortable with the idea of a total lack of trading. I see two main situations where trading can be desirable. One is where a share cuts, or maybe even merely holds, its dividend and the other is where it has risen very strongly thus reducing the running yield so that in both cases, a better income could be obtained by selling and reinvesting in a higher yielder if a suitable choice is available -- not always that easy.
https://web.archive.org/web/20111224174 ... 031212.htm

Thank you for this Bree. I was so taken aback by this article I wanted to digest it before responding, but having read and re-read it I still consider it a revalation.

To summarise the relevant elements what Bland (PYAD) was saying seems to be as follows:

1. He thinks trading in an HYP is a bad idea - "One rule I set myself for the high yield portfolios (HYP) I portray here is that there is never any voluntary trading of the shares, so the only changes that occur are those mandated by some action from the companies such as takeovers or reorganisations."

2. It is acceptable to trade in an HYP though, he thinks it will reduce returns - "But if investors think they can do better by trading then go for it, it's your money. My view is though that you will probably lose out to a pure buy and holder."

3. He goes much further, in fact he says managing an HYP any way an investor wants is fine - " Clearly everyone who runs an HYP will do it their own way in any event but since I write about the strategy, I write about my preferred way while realising naturally that it will not suit everyone."

4. He recognises that what he advocates is nor really meant for the type of people who frequent TLF - "You can't please 'em all, so I tend to aim my version of the strategy at my theoretical HYPer, that granny in Hove whose daughter has set up a permanent portfolio."

I find this article and the consequences of what it said remarkable for two reasons.

First, what I have said recently about some approaches not being HYP is just plain wrong. As per point 3 above as long as you are aiming for income as far as Bland is concerned do what you want, it is still HYP. He even uses the word "trade" which is usually used her to describe activity that is not HYP in nature. So buy and sell as you see fit, diversify as much or as little as you want, include or exclude non-UK shares as you see fit, include some ITs or not, etc.*

Second, the limitations placed on what can and cannot be discussed on this board are completely arbitrary. They allow some elements of the approach Bland uses himself to be relaxed, but not others. But on what basis? Why is discussion of some REITs OK but not other ITs? Why can some posters discuss their trading activity but others not discuss non-UK shares? There is no justification in what Bland says, because he says in point 3 that everyone will run their HYP in their own way, so Bland is saying an HYP with half non-UK shares is still in his eyes an HYP, it is only TLF guidance that says it is not.

A remarkable article to link to and as I say a complete revelation, it will fundamentally change how I approach this board going forward.**

Again, thank you for the link Bree.


* It may be that this was a marketing exercise, an attempt to expand the 'envelope' of Bland's HYP brand, but whatever the motive the article says what it says.
** Some may ask if I mean this or if I am being provocative, to answer that upfront, this is a genuine revelation to me.

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10439
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3644 times
Been thanked: 5272 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#308220

Postby Arborbridge » May 13th, 2020, 12:19 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Wizard, sir, I advise you to temper your new found enthusiasm. For the very same person also tells people to not take any notice of anyone who says anything about buying shares. Because nobody can tell the future. I recommend anyone thinking of following tip sheets or similar to place maximum emphasis on that nugget of "advice". It is very sound. (Apologies in advance if my comment is too off topic here).

RVF


My bold - I don't believe that is true. I don't believe "he" ever said that, or certainly not exactly that, for the simple reason that there are surely some things that can be said about buying shares which are universal truths.

Note another point of confusion: no one here has relied on or promoted "tip-sheets" - rather, we are discussing implementing a process. This is not advice about recommending shares - which your term "tip sheet" suggests - but more a method which one might try with some guidelines as to how to run with the idea. A what else would we discuss on the HYP board but HYP! If you advocate not listening to what others think, then I can only suggest you don't read the board. To follow the reasoning, we may as well pack up shop and switch off, though I doubt that would assist people who want to invest.

You may know that Stephen Bland ran what you would call a "tip sheet" which was paid for, but this isn't and has never been, a focus of discussion here, so it isn't relevant to refer to it. In fact, I'm not even sure it still exists.

There are occasional posts here which tell people which shares individuals are buying - I think pyad himself has sometimes published his own list - but these are just our own personal lists, not tipsheets, not advice. They are, if you like "serving suggestions" from the products on offer, selected by different people.

You have to come up whatever suits your own taste, and I'm sure Wizard does that as well as the next man without any "advice" from you or me.

Arb.

TUK020
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2045
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 7:41 am
Has thanked: 763 times
Been thanked: 1179 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#308250

Postby TUK020 » May 13th, 2020, 1:10 pm

Wizard wrote:Second, the limitations placed on what can and cannot be discussed on this board are completely arbitrary. They allow some elements of the approach Bland uses himself to be relaxed, but not others. But on what basis? Why is discussion of some REITs OK but not other ITs? Why can some posters discuss their trading activity but others not discuss non-UK shares? There is no justification in what Bland says, because he says in point 3 that everyone will run their HYP in their own way, so Bland is saying an HYP with half non-UK shares is still in his eyes an HYP, it is only TLF guidance that says it is not.


Shiites vs Sunni

Or in Mandalorian "This is the way. I have spoken"

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#308271

Postby dspp » May 13th, 2020, 2:10 pm

Moderator Message:
I have moved this thread away from HYP-P for the time being, to HYSS-G. Maybe one day it will return if either a lot of culling takes place, or it reconverges back towards HYP-P.

regards, dspp

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10439
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3644 times
Been thanked: 5272 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#308287

Postby Arborbridge » May 13th, 2020, 2:45 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:I don't believe that is true. I don't believe "he" ever said that, or certainly not exactly that, for the simple reason that there are surely some things that can be said about buying shares which are universal truths.

Arb.

Ahem, pyad said -
Don't listen to "experts" when it comes to very long term investing.

They know nothing when it comes to predictions decades out. But equally, you know nothing. It follows that you are in the same position as them regarding what may happen to BP or Shell over the forthcoming decades, or any share.

The difference for HYPers is strategic ignorance. The willingness to ignore worthless Carneyite predictions and defend against the future going wrong for any sector by holding a broad spread of industries.


Link -

viewtopic.php?f=15&t=21059&p=273968&hilit=listen#p273968

Naturally, I expect it to be said that's not what he actually meant. As usual. (Again, my apologies for a strictly off topic post, but it had to be answered.)

RVF


I'm not disputing what Pyad said, nor even what he actually meant. In fact, I am not even sure what your own point is now!
If you are implying that pyad is tiopping shares and saying: "Don't listen to other people but listen to me" - that couldn't be much further from the truth. He's always maintained that we and he, can know nothing about the future course of a share, and that's why he's never been in the business of recommending shares. What he did was suggest a system which helps mitigates this lack of knowledge, a process which helps an individual makes some choices and create a portfolio. In fact, it was a healthy change from the usual "star manager" or "tipsheet" approach that Pyad came up with a process to help us set up our own portfolios.

In short, unless I've completely missed your point, I do not think you have any basis for what amounted to a slightly vague but sarcastic remark.

Arb.

dealtn
Lemon Half
Posts: 6099
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 443 times
Been thanked: 2344 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#308288

Postby dealtn » May 13th, 2020, 2:46 pm

dspp wrote:
Moderator Message:
I have moved this thread away from HYP-P for the time being, to HYSS-G. Maybe one day it will return if either a lot of culling takes place, or it reconverges back towards HYP-P.

regards, dspp


Or BT perhaps!

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10439
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3644 times
Been thanked: 5272 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#308291

Postby Arborbridge » May 13th, 2020, 2:51 pm

TUK020 wrote:
Wizard wrote:Second, the limitations placed on what can and cannot be discussed on this board are completely arbitrary. They allow some elements of the approach Bland uses himself to be relaxed, but not others. But on what basis? Why is discussion of some REITs OK but not other ITs? Why can some posters discuss their trading activity but others not discuss non-UK shares? There is no justification in what Bland says, because he says in point 3 that everyone will run their HYP in their own way, so Bland is saying an HYP with half non-UK shares is still in his eyes an HYP, it is only TLF guidance that says it is not.


Shiites vs Sunni

Or in Mandalorian "This is the way. I have spoken"


I'm not sure I agree with the point Wizard makes here, but I had some problems with this myself from a different standpoint. I thought the practical board would in effect be a Stephen Bland/TMF HYP pracitcal continuity board, whereas it turns out that the guidelines where slightly rewritten. Quite why, I never got to grips with, but presumably it was accepted by the organisers as the way to go, so that's the way it is. In fact, the differences are pretty minor, and I don't accept Wizard's input concerning foreign shares. They were never suggested by Pyad and have never been accepted as part of the make up.

Arb.

Wizard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2829
Joined: November 7th, 2016, 8:22 am
Has thanked: 68 times
Been thanked: 1029 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#308318

Postby Wizard » May 13th, 2020, 4:01 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
TUK020 wrote:
Wizard wrote:Second, the limitations placed on what can and cannot be discussed on this board are completely arbitrary. They allow some elements of the approach Bland uses himself to be relaxed, but not others. But on what basis? Why is discussion of some REITs OK but not other ITs? Why can some posters discuss their trading activity but others not discuss non-UK shares? There is no justification in what Bland says, because he says in point 3 that everyone will run their HYP in their own way, so Bland is saying an HYP with half non-UK shares is still in his eyes an HYP, it is only TLF guidance that says it is not.


Shiites vs Sunni

Or in Mandalorian "This is the way. I have spoken"


I'm not sure I agree with the point Wizard makes here, but I had some problems with this myself from a different standpoint. I thought the practical board would in effect be a Stephen Bland/TMF HYP pracitcal continuity board, whereas it turns out that the guidelines where slightly rewritten. Quite why, I never got to grips with, but presumably it was accepted by the organisers as the way to go, so that's the way it is. In fact, the differences are pretty minor, and I don't accept Wizard's input concerning foreign shares. They were never suggested by Pyad and have never been accepted as part of the make up.

Arb.

I am sorry Arb, a few days I would have agreed with you, but the article linked to by Bree contains a very clear message from Bland, to repeat:
Stephen Bland wrote:Clearly everyone who runs an HYP will do it their own way in any event but since I write about the strategy, I write about my preferred way while realising naturally that it will not suit everyone.

Not buying foreign shares was 'his way', but he clearly accepts others may want to run an HYP in 'their own way'. So it is not my input you are disputing, I am just quoting Bland. If he wanted to say my way is HYP doing it differently is something other than HYP he could easily have done so, but he very clearly did not.

This article really was a complete bombshell for me. I suspect it is one that is not read as frequently as the other earlier articles as I do not think I have ever seen it referenced before - but maybe that is just my age.

Itsallaguess
Lemon Half
Posts: 9129
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:16 pm
Has thanked: 4140 times
Been thanked: 10032 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#308324

Postby Itsallaguess » May 13th, 2020, 4:10 pm

Wizard wrote:
This article really was a complete bombshell for me.

Stephen Bland wrote:
Clearly everyone who runs an HYP will do it their own way in any event but since I write about the strategy, I write about my preferred way while realising naturally that it will not suit everyone.

https://web.archive.org/web/20111224174935/http://www.fool.co.uk/valueinvesting/2003/vi031212.htm


I suspect it is one that is not read as frequently as the other earlier articles as I do not think I have ever seen it referenced before.


The 'Unread Sea Scrolls' of HYP scripture then....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

tjh290633
Lemon Half
Posts: 8289
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 919 times
Been thanked: 4138 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#308327

Postby tjh290633 » May 13th, 2020, 4:18 pm

Wizard wrote: Why is discussion of some REITs OK but not other ITs?

The answer to that is quite simple. Most REITs are property companies which own properties. ITs are investment companies that own the shares of other companies.

Some ITs own REITs, but I doubt that any REITs own ITs.

TJH

Wizard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2829
Joined: November 7th, 2016, 8:22 am
Has thanked: 68 times
Been thanked: 1029 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#308335

Postby Wizard » May 13th, 2020, 4:38 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
Wizard wrote: Why is discussion of some REITs OK but not other ITs?

The answer to that is quite simple. Most REITs are property companies which own properties. ITs are investment companies that own the shares of other companies.

Some ITs own REITs, but I doubt that any REITs own ITs.

TJH

Clearly as that sentence is plucked out of a longer post the fact that I meant in the context of the Bland article linked to by Bree is lost. Far better IMHO in such a situation to quote the whole post and highlight a specific sentence.

tjh290633
Lemon Half
Posts: 8289
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 919 times
Been thanked: 4138 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#308350

Postby tjh290633 » May 13th, 2020, 5:28 pm

Wizard wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:
Wizard wrote: Why is discussion of some REITs OK but not other ITs?

The answer to that is quite simple. Most REITs are property companies which own properties. ITs are investment companies that own the shares of other companies.

Some ITs own REITs, but I doubt that any REITs own ITs.

TJH

Clearly as that sentence is plucked out of a longer post the fact that I meant in the context of the Bland article linked to by Bree is lost. Far better IMHO in such a situation to quote the whole post and highlight a specific sentence.

Come off it. That comment had no relevance to PYAD's article or to Bree's post.

TJH

Wizard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2829
Joined: November 7th, 2016, 8:22 am
Has thanked: 68 times
Been thanked: 1029 times

Re: BT Group Finals, including dividend suspension.

#308357

Postby Wizard » May 13th, 2020, 6:11 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
Wizard wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:The answer to that is quite simple. Most REITs are property companies which own properties. ITs are investment companies that own the shares of other companies.

Some ITs own REITs, but I doubt that any REITs own ITs.

TJH

Clearly as that sentence is plucked out of a longer post the fact that I meant in the context of the Bland article linked to by Bree is lost. Far better IMHO in such a situation to quote the whole post and highlight a specific sentence.

Come off it. That comment had no relevance to PYAD's article or to Bree's post.

TJH

No, you come off it. Read my post, understand my post. Then comment.


Return to “High Yield Shares & Strategies - General”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 29 guests