Overview
• Global dividends fell $55bn to $329.8bn in the third quarter, a fall of 11.4% on an underlying basis and a headline decline of 14.3%
• The decline was less severe than in Q2 because seasonal patterns in Q3 favour parts of the world where dividends have been more resilient
• China, Hong Kong and Canada were among the very few major countries to see higher dividends
• The weakest results came from the UK, Australia, and the Netherlands
• One third of companies cut or cancelled payouts, but encouragingly we are already seeing some companies restore dividends suspended earlier in the year
Outlook
• The worst of the cuts are now behind us, but we do not expect dividends to grow until the anniversary of the global lockdown passes at the end of Q1 2021
• Dividends are being impacted very differently around the world. Europe, the UK and Australia are the worst affected, Japan is somewhere in the middle, while emerging markets and North America are proving most resilient, partly because US dividends are shielded to an extent by reduced share buybacks
• Our first estimate in April for this year saw underlying global dividends falling 15% on a best-case basis and 35% on a worst case; we narrowed this range to -19% to -25% in July
• We are now confident the final result will be towards the top end of our expectations with a best-case underlying decline of 17.5% and a worst case of 20.2%
https://cdn.janushenderson.com/webdocs/Report+28+-+UK.pdf