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Investment Trust dividends - where next?

General discussions about equity high-yield income strategies
Itsallaguess
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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361147

Postby Itsallaguess » November 29th, 2020, 12:19 pm

moorfield wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:
In the chart below, I've pulled out data from the above post just comparing income from HYP1 and Luni's Basket of Seven -

Imagequote]


... but Pyad's income comparisons were always versus inflation, not a basket of ITs, weren't they?


I was only using the above chart in my earlier post (and the link to Arb's chart too..) to highlight what seems to be a clear difference in meaning when Ian might choose to repeatedly use words like 'better' when regularly discussing these types of issues.

If we're talking about a proposed income-strategy that is hoped to rise predictably and reliably for use as a source of retirement-funding, I'd personally like to use the word 'better' to describe the line in the above chart made by the Basket of seven income over the large number of years between 2007 and 2019, because predictability and reliability are going to be really, really important to me during what I hope to be a long period of retirement, even if that predictability and reliability came at the expense of some level of total-return in overall income or capital...

It seems that when Ian uses the word 'better', he'd be popping up in 2019 after the above HYP1 performance, where for a single period it actually rose up above the Basket of seven line, and he'd start to loudly pop the 'better' champagne corks...

It seems that when it comes to income-investing for retirement purposes, we're using the same words, but it's clear that we're often speaking a completely different language, unfortunately...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

IanTHughes
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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361150

Postby IanTHughes » November 29th, 2020, 12:30 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
moorfield wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:It seems that when Ian uses the word 'better', he'd be popping up in 2019 after the above HYP1 performance, where for a single period it actually rose up above the Basket of seven line, and he'd start to loudly pop the 'better' champagne corks...

Nonsense, I said nothing of the sort! You are simply putting your words into my mouth, incorrectly as usual!


Ian

Itsallaguess
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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361151

Postby Itsallaguess » November 29th, 2020, 12:39 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:
It seems that when Ian uses the word 'better', he'd be popping up in 2019 after the above HYP1 performance, where for a single period it actually rose up above the Basket of seven line, and he'd start to loudly pop the 'better' champagne corks...


Nonsense, I said nothing of the sort! You are simply putting your words into my mouth, incorrectly as usual!


I didn't say that you said it - I said that this is how you're using the word 'better' in these types of conversations, and it's different to how other people might choose to use the word...

It was a simple demonstration of the different meaning of the word 'better' that we seem to be having some difficulties with...

A bit like someone getting in your taxi and specifically asking for a smooth ride to the next town...

After a very bumpy journey that he's clearly not enjoyed, you might point at your watch and tell him about the great time savings that you made on all the crappy side-roads that you took...

You gave him what you thought was a 'better' ride, but he told you at the beginning what his idea of 'better' would be, and it clearly wasn't the same as yours...

Income-investing for retirement is the same Ian...

You're 'better' is a much bumpier, unreliable journey, but one where you can point at some metrics over a specific time period, and perhaps shout - "See - better!"

And it turns out that some income-investors hoping to finance their retirement would prefer the smoother, less bumpy ride...

That's their definition of 'better'....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

IanTHughes
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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361155

Postby IanTHughes » November 29th, 2020, 12:56 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:Nonsense, I said nothing of the sort! You are simply putting your words into my mouth, incorrectly as usual!


I didn't say that you said it - I said that this is how you're using the word 'better' in these types of conversations, and it's different to how other people might choose to use the word...

It was a simple demonstration of the different meaning of the word 'better' that we seem to be having some difficulties with...

Once again, I have not myself used the word "better " in any of these conversations. The only use I made of the word "better", was to report what I believe others had said!

Itsallaguess wrote:You're 'better'

I am "better" than who? :D

Seriously, all I have said is that, according to the research that I have carried out so far, research which I accept is limited and also may need double checking, HYP1 has held its own when compared with the Investment Trusts that I have so far had the time to investigate. I also made it absolutely clear that I was measuring the results over the full 20 years since HYP1 was set up, not looking at the "bumpiness" of the ride, which others might consider important. I made no reference to whether HYP1 was "better", or "worse", either for a retiree or anyone building a retirement pot using HYP! I simply indicated the data that I had so far uncovered.


Ian

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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361159

Postby Lootman » November 29th, 2020, 1:12 pm

88V8 wrote:Hang on, what's all this PC fuss about 'advice'. Pyad didn't even say 'advice'. We all come here for 'advice' don't we?Or offer it sometimes.

There is a distinction between stating an opinion here, such as "I think fund A is better than fund B", and "directing" (to use the word he used) an individual to buy fund A because of some fact about that individual.

The former is expressing an opinion, which we all do here as you say. But "directing" people to do things sounds a lot more like formally giving advice. And I am not aware that he is or was legally allowed to do that. Although if he didn't get paid for it then maybe he can get away with it. (There is no qualification for publishing a tipsheet however, which is the loophole he used I believe).

He strikes me as knowing a lot about one area of investment, whereas an adviser needs a broad knowledge: For instance how can someone advise a client to invest overseas if the adviser doesn't know anything about foreign investing?

I have an accountant to do my taxes each year, but he knows less about investing than I do. The act of preparing my tax forms does not given him any special insight into how I invest because he only sees the sales and dividends, not the buys or unrealised gains. And he doesn't see my tax-sheltered accounts. So I would never take his investment advice if he ever offered it, which he does not and rightly so, since he is not licensed to do that.
Last edited by Lootman on November 29th, 2020, 1:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Itsallaguess
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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361160

Postby Itsallaguess » November 29th, 2020, 1:13 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
Once again, I have not myself used the word "better " in any of these conversations.

The only use I made of the word "better", was to report what I believe others had said!


I'm sorry Ian, but that's simply not true...

You entered this thread with a post that contained the following sentence -

"However, what cannot be said with any confidence in my view, is that Investment Trusts will provide more income over time, or even a better overall result."

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=26451&start=20#p361003

My involvement with you on this thread stems from your specific use of the word 'better' in that post, and how your particular use of the word clashes with the meaning that other income-investors might wish to give it, and I was wanting to give a clear example to try to highlight the difference in our understanding of the word when it's related to income-investing for retirement purposes...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361162

Postby IanTHughes » November 29th, 2020, 1:23 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:Once again, I have not myself used the word "better " in any of these conversations.

The only use I made of the word "better", was to report what I believe others had said!


I'm sorry Ian, but that's simply not true...

You entered this thread with a post that contained the following sentence -

"However, what cannot be said with any confidence in my view, is that Investment Trusts will provide more income over time, or even a better overall result."

As I have already stated, quite clearly I thought, I did use the word "better" when reporting what others had claimed!


Ian

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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361166

Postby Itsallaguess » November 29th, 2020, 1:33 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:
Once again, I have not myself used the word "better " in any of these conversations.

The only use I made of the word "better", was to report what I believe others had said!


I'm sorry Ian, but that's simply not true...

You entered this thread with a post that contained the following sentence -

"However, what cannot be said with any confidence in my view, is that Investment Trusts will provide more income over time, or even a better overall result."


As I have already stated, quite clearly I thought, I did use the word "better" when reporting what others had claimed!


OK Ian - I think that's probably as good a place as any to wrap this one up...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361183

Postby Arborbridge » November 29th, 2020, 2:34 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
Padders72 wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:Anyone who claims the contrary view, should really advise which Investment Trust(s) they have investigated to come up with such a view, and over what period of time.

Over the past 8 months? A basket of the higher yielding ITs including those name checked most regularly on here would massively outperform any pre-Covid intricately chosen HYP selection of individual FTSE shares from an income POV.

But I guess you already knew that.

8 months? Are you seriously suggesting that one should measure success or otherwise of any investment strategy over only 8 months? During a period of time when there has been a global pandemic? With "lockdowns" virtually closing parts of the economy? What about over 20 years? What I am suggesting is that, over the past 20 years since HYP1 was set up, the HYP1 portfolio has held its own with what might have been achieved with certain Investment Trusts. Nothing else.

By the way, the roughly 50.00% drop in HYP1's income this year, still leaves the annual income ahead of where it would have been for six of the Investment Trusts mentioned in my post!


Ian


Well, I can't do 20 years, but here's a nine year period of comparison between an IT basket and my own HYP with a basket of OEICS thrown in for good measure. This is income per unit in pence. I make no particular claims for the relevance except that it seems to me that my choice of ITs seem to be outpacing my HYP for income. Whether this will reverse in the next few years, I eagerly await.

Image


Arb.

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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361184

Postby 88V8 » November 29th, 2020, 2:38 pm

IanTHughes wrote:Obviously with some posters, I was wrong. Some are apparently only interested in discussing their own chosen strategy and will only listen to their own opinion.

:) Of course.
That's any typical forum.
Or any typical group in the pub.
One cannot help noticing that most people prefer Transmit to Receive. :)

Anyway, I look forward to the outcome of your research.
Even though I am gravitating more towards ITs than ords, just to minimise the hassle.

V8

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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361188

Postby Arborbridge » November 29th, 2020, 2:45 pm

IanTHughes wrote:Also, I am not trying to prove anything to myself, or anyone else for that matter. The exercise is designed to give me data from which I just might be able to make better investment decisions and better statements than:
OldPlodder wrote:We abandoned investing in individual Cos many years ago, as there was not much point from our point of view We could get just as good an overall portfolios performance

Sorry OldPlodder, I am not trying to pick on you, it is just an example of what a number of people post on here. Some even suggest that Investment Trusts will provide a better return. Have any of those posters actually looked at the data? Have you?

All I am saying is that over the past 20 years, using the example of HYP1, the idea that Investments Trusts would have provided a better result, or even a similar result, is not necessarily borne out by the facts!


Ian


I'm willing to give Old Plodder the benefit of the doubt. He might well have a lifetime's experience and eventually has come to the conclusion he has mentioned: that's worth taking some note of. As for ITs providing a better return, it's almost as though you have never noticed any of my contributions or comments which do tend to show that - at least in my case - ITs have outpaced my HYP on almost any basis you care to mention. That is, growth of income and TR.
Are you guilty of ignoring or discounting data or lifetime experiences put up by posters unless they happen to confirm your own POV?

HYP 1 is one very particular HYP, and one of a type which very people adhere to. My HYP is a living breathing HYP on which I depend for more than half my income, and it's just as relevant as HYP, though equally singular. There's a whole universe of HYPs but we only get a glimpse into a handful of them: HYP1, ArbHYP, TJH HYP and yours. These are just about the only ones which could be compared in a similar manner, AFAIK.

Arb.

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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361190

Postby Arborbridge » November 29th, 2020, 2:51 pm

88V8 wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:Obviously with some posters, I was wrong. Some are apparently only interested in discussing their own chosen strategy and will only listen to their own opinion.

:) Of course.
That's any typical forum.
Or any typical group in the pub.
One cannot help noticing that most people prefer Transmit to Receive. :)

Anyway, I look forward to the outcome of your research.
Even though I am gravitating more towards ITs than ords, just to minimise the hassle.

V8


This is very normal, simply because it is only their personal experience of which people have direct knowledge and which they can contribute to a discussion. Anything else would be hearsay.
Furthmore, investors who glean this knowledge from hardwon experience are usually quite forthright, so no prizes for realising they are likely to put their own POV strongly.
Ironically, only recently one poster (in another context concerning Trump) was accusing Lemon Fools of being guilty of "group think" - the very opposite of Ian's assertion. Getting fools here set on one course would be like herding cats. :)

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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361199

Postby Arborbridge » November 29th, 2020, 3:39 pm

Here's a comparison I have not published previous, but which may be of interest. Each time I check my TR (as XIRR) I jot down the date and percentage, for both ArbIT and ArbHYP. Charting these together over the years gives a very rough comparison about the progress of the two portfolios.
XIRR are to some extend to be taken with a pinch of salt, but I can't help concluding that in general, the Arbit is succeeding in giving me a higher total return than my HYP. I'm not saying other people's experience will be the same, but my contention has always been that I've found it quite difficult to "outrun" a good professional manager (or collection of them). However the difference arises, in terms of this data giving TR, the Arbit return is consistently superior. Where HYP does usually have an advantage is in providing a higher yield by about 1% - which is it's primary purpose, after all - however, this has now reversed with ITs giving both a higher yield and higher income growth rate.

Image

I don't pretend this is in any way conclusive - there are too many "if buts or maybes" - though the data seems to be telling me that I should be relying more on ITs than home spun ideas.

Arb.

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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361204

Postby IanTHughes » November 29th, 2020, 3:56 pm

88V8 wrote:Anyway, I look forward to the outcome of your research.

Oh I will be continuing my research into the comparison between HYP1 and various Investment Trusts, but will not be posting any further results of my research!

But don't worry, you can always get any further information from the knuckle-draggers that claim that HYP is "poison" and that anyone investigating how HYP1 compares with Investment Trusts is "brainwashed". And that is not to mention the frankly idiotic suggestion that an investigation into how HYP1 compares with various Investment Trusts, should include "Fixed Income", "Bonds" and "International Instruments"! Or was it the Investment Trusts that should have included such investments? I forget


Ian

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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361208

Postby moorfield » November 29th, 2020, 4:10 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
88V8 wrote:Anyway, I look forward to the outcome of your research.

Oh I will be continuing my research into the comparison between HYP1 and various Investment Trusts, but will not be posting any further results of my research!


That's shame Ian, many we're looking forward to reading your conclusions here I'm sure.

You've just reminded me of an old Stewart Lee joke: If a tramp farts in a forest and nobody hears it, is it still funny? Discuss. (and to be clear I am not insinuating you are a tramp or your expulsions are funny, would I do that.)

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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361209

Postby richfool » November 29th, 2020, 4:16 pm

moorfield wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:
88V8 wrote:Anyway, I look forward to the outcome of your research.

Oh I will be continuing my research into the comparison between HYP1 and various Investment Trusts, but will not be posting any further results of my research!


That's shame Ian, many we're looking forward to reading your conclusions here I'm sure.

You've just reminded me of an old Stewart Lee joke: If a tramp farts in a forest and nobody hears it, is it still funny? Discuss. (and to be clear I am not insinuating you are a tramp or your expulsions are funny, would I do that.)

Ah, now did you mean a case of the tramp farting and no one hearing (because there was no one there to hear), or the tramp farting and no one listening (as in no one wanting to hear it)? :?

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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361213

Postby IanTHughes » November 29th, 2020, 4:23 pm

moorfield wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:
88V8 wrote:Anyway, I look forward to the outcome of your research.
Oh I will be continuing my research into the comparison between HYP1 and various Investment Trusts, but will not be posting any further results of my research!

That's shame Ian, many we're looking forward to reading your conclusions here I'm sure.

Well, you can always ask the poster who claimed that my research was faulty. To come up with such an accusation he must have conducted very similar research to mine


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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361217

Postby moorfield » November 29th, 2020, 4:38 pm

IanTHughes wrote:Well, you can always ask the poster who claimed that my research was faulty. To come up with such an accusation he must have conducted very similar research to mine


I have done already. You and I are both waiting for a clarification of what is meant by "poison" ...

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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361221

Postby IanTHughes » November 29th, 2020, 4:44 pm

moorfield wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:Well, you can always ask the poster who claimed that my research was faulty. To come up with such an accusation he must have conducted very similar research to mine

I have done already. You and I are both waiting for a clarification of what is meant by "poison" ...

Yes, I did see that post. A fellow brainwashee? :D


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Re: Investment Trust dividends - where next?

#361228

Postby funduffer » November 29th, 2020, 5:27 pm

It's a shame this thread as deteriorated into the discussing the merits or otherwise of HYP/HYP1 versus other investment strategies. It was intended to discuss the prospects for dividends from income generating IT's in 2021 and beyond.

On pyad's point about Temple Bar's recent 25% dividend cut, I missed that. TMPL is not in my portfolio, nor do I read every thread on Lemon Fool!

My own portfolio of 10 income generating IT's is here (Name, Ticker, current yield):

Henderson Far East Income Ltd. (HFEL) 7.20%
BlackRock World Mining Trust (BRWM) 4.90%
City of London Inv Trust (CTY) 5.30%
Dunedin Income Growth Inv Trust (DIG) 4.60%
Murray International Trust (MYI) 5.00%
BMO Capital & Income Investment Trust (BCI) 4.00%
Aberdeen Standard Equity Income Trust (ASEI) 7.00%
Scottish American Inv Company (SAIN) 2.70%*
Greencoat UK Wind (UKW) 5.30%
NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited Red (NESF) 6.40%

Overall yield 5.04%

I think the next 6 months will tell us a lot. If the pandemic recedes, then I see dividends being restored rapidly and IT such as these are likely to be able to see this crisis through without any cuts. If not, then inevitably cuts would start to be made, but many have a long track record of not cutting, which I suspect they will want to defend if they can sensibly do so.

* For anyone wanting to say that SAIN is not high yield, that is true now, but not when I bought it, and I only sell rarely!

FD


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