HYP Concept waning?

[absolutezero]

The trouble is, that does not seem to me to translate into results "on the ground". At almost any time over the past decade, the average return of the UK equity income sector in practice has been lower than the UK all company sector.

Something doesn't match up somewhere.

And the roughly double outperformance of an all world tracker vs the all world high yield tracker on a total return basis.

Over what period? See my highlighted phrase above.

TJH

5 years AND 10 years.
VWRL approx 80% TR and VHYL approx 40% TR.
I can't get pictures on here but HL do a good chart showing total returns.

[Itsallaguess]

And yet that plausible reply, even when repeatedly offered up every time you ask similar room-barging questions, seems to never actually satisfy your need to keep asking them....

I have accused HYP advocates of not treating capital and dividends of the same amount as having the same value. They usually seem to deny it despite evidence to contrary in other statements.

Timing stock purchases to be immediately before x div dates is one such example.

Well thanks for yet again confirming that your repeated involvement in these types of room-barging interruptions is one of down-in-the-weeds, ever-more granular 'accusation' rather than any real form of real interest or knowledge-discovery....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[absolutezero]

And the roughly double outperformance of an all world tracker vs the all world high yield tracker on a total return basis.

Over what period? See my highlighted phrase above.

TJH

5 years AND 10 years.
VWRL approx 80% TR and VHYL approx 40% TR.
I can't get pictures on here but HL do a good chart showing total returns.

[Alaric]

Well thanks for yet again confirming that your repeated involvement in these types of room-barging interruptions is one of down-in-the-weeds, ever-more granular 'accusation' rather than any real form of real interest or knowledge-discovery....

Given the topic is about whether the HYP concept is waning, the impression given of what "HYPers" appear to believe is surely relevant. I also write as someone accused by you know who of failing to understand "THE HYP STRATEGY". Am I allowed to ask what it is and what guides "HYPers" decision making as it remains a strong impression that they don't rate capital and dividends the same.

Once upon a time accountants didn't and when preparing accounts for investing institutions would state assets at book cost, , defined benefit pension schemes being cases in point. This would have the side effect of stating a higher balance sheet value for a body following a high dividend strategy than one which didn't. Investment managers following a growth strategy might need to massage the figures back towards market value by using a sale and buyback process.

[Arborbridge]

Given the title of this thread, I'm not sure I see the relevance of all world trackers which include an unequal weighted grouping of US mega-corps or other instruments which are not even HY, and therefore beyond the scope of this board. Such a portfolio of shares always did out perform HYP and probably always will unless there is some huge disturbance in the US market, so why is that advanced as a proof of HYP "waning"?

So is the HYP concept waning? i.e. changing for the worst, shrinking: is the HYP portfolio - judging against its own terms - waning?
Not judging against any other concept - those tangential posts are all a distraction from the original question.

Waning, itself, can be interpreted in two ways: it HYP less popular? or is HYP less effective?
A waning moon still wanes whether or not it is observed by many people, so I'm guessing waning in this context means "less effective".

Shouldn't we be answering that question rather than considering " does HYP lead to a lower TR than other methods" ? which is what most of the replies here seem to be comcerning.

As IAAG commented, this thread has been photobombed out of its original course by individuals who are just part of the TR Taliban, and have no real interest in the question, or interest in a board which is for the purpose of discussing HY strategies for providing income (see the guidelines).


Arb.

[XFool]

Possibly belongs on 'the other' thread. But it's locked.
------------------------------------------------------------------

I was reading this when I thought...

Maybe You Missed It, but the Internet ‘Died’ Five Years Ago

The Atlantic

A conspiracy theory spreading online says the whole internet is now fake. It’s ridiculous, but possibly not that ridiculous?

[Wizard]

Given the title of this thread...

Snip.

I pointed this out once before, but the title of this thread is not the subject of the post moved here. Having moved the post to create a new thread the Mod then gave the new thread the wrong title. The post that was moved said...

I am inclined to think that common sense is prevailing and that the whole hearted dedication to the original HYP concept is waning. It was after all, at least as I understand it intended to be nothing more than a concept, a general guide. Over the years bits of it became enshrined as gospel. That is no way to set out an investment philosophy. Better stop now.

Dod

Moderator Message:
This view moved here to keep it on-topic. - Chris

My bold.

I believe the point was made as part of the discussion as to why there is a lower volume of posting on HYPP than there was historically.

[Arborbridge]

Given the title of this thread...

Snip.

I pointed this out once before, but the title of this thread is not the subject of the post moved here. Having moved the post to create a new thread the Mod then gave the new thread the wrong title. The post that was moved said...

I am inclined to think that common sense is prevailing and that the whole hearted dedication to the original HYP concept is waning. It was after all, at least as I understand it intended to be nothing more than a concept, a general guide. Over the years bits of it became enshrined as gospel. That is no way to set out an investment philosophy. Better stop now.

Dod

Moderator Message:
This view moved here to keep it on-topic. - Chris

My bold.

I believe the point was made as part of the discussion as to why there is a lower volume of posting on HYPP than there was historically.

In that case, the whole thread seems pretty rudderless and went off at half-cock

Perhaps we had better start again? oh, perhaps not.
Arb.

[Dod101]

Given the title of this thread...

Snip.

I pointed this out once before, but the title of this thread is not the subject of the post moved here. Having moved the post to create a new thread the Mod then gave the new thread the wrong title. The post that was moved said...

I am inclined to think that common sense is prevailing and that the whole hearted dedication to the original HYP concept is waning. It was after all, at least as I understand it intended to be nothing more than a concept, a general guide. Over the years bits of it became enshrined as gospel. That is no way to set out an investment philosophy. Better stop now.

Dod

Moderator Message:
This view moved here to keep it on-topic. - Chris

My bold.

I believe the point was made as part of the discussion as to why there is a lower volume of posting on HYPP than there was historically.

In that case, the whole thread seems pretty rudderless and went off at half-cock

Perhaps we had better start again? oh, perhaps not.
Arb.

I am inclined to agree with you Arb. It is a bit like the new thread started on Dividend Investing. Products of the thin news season I guess.

Dod

[tjh290633]

And the roughly double outperformance of an all world tracker vs the all world high yield tracker on a total return basis.

Over what period? See my highlighted phrase above.

TJH

5 years AND 10 years.
VWRL approx 80% TR and VHYL approx 40% TR.
I can't get pictures on here but HL do a good chart showing total returns.

As I said, the position has been reversed in recent years, as the chart in viewtopic.php?p=438884#p438884 indicates. I was talking about the period from when the HY and LY indices began to the time when the reversal began. How otherwise do you explain the difference in the values of the TR indices? Don't try to confuse the issue by bringing up world trackers. I am talking about UK indices.

TJH

[Wizard]

Snip.

I pointed this out once before, but the title of this thread is not the subject of the post moved here. Having moved the post to create a new thread the Mod then gave the new thread the wrong title. The post that was moved said...


My bold.

I believe the point was made as part of the discussion as to why there is a lower volume of posting on HYPP than there was historically.

In that case, the whole thread seems pretty rudderless and went off at half-cock

Perhaps we had better start again? oh, perhaps not.
Arb.

I am inclined to agree with you Arb. It is a bit like the new thread started on Dividend Investing. Products of the thin news season I guess.

Dod

Got a life of its own now, no stopping it. Even though it has pretty much nothing to do with what you actually said in the post that was moved and incorrectly titled. Rather ironic really, given the reason for moving it was to keep another thread on topic

[dealtn]

As IAAG commented, this thread has been photobombed out of its original course by individuals who are just part of the TR Taliban, and have no real interest in the question, or interest in a board which is for the purpose of discussing HY strategies for providing income (see the guidelines).

What is this TR Taliban you refer to?

TR is nothing more than an acceptance that investor returns come in multiple forms, primarily the "income" return usually from dividends, and changes in the price of the investment, a capital gain or loss.

This TR applies to all strategies, including HYP, and all manner of other High Yield Strategies.

If you see anti-HYP attacks please don't label these as TR as has lazily become adopted it seems. It either demonstrates a poor understanding of what TR is, or an attempt to portray everyone that isn't solely an Income investor (should such investors actually exist) with the kind of anti-HYP debating behaviours which is unfair. Much like labelling "HYP Holy War" fighters would be.

[Arborbridge]

As IAAG commented, this thread has been photobombed out of its original course by individuals who are just part of the TR Taliban, and have no real interest in the question, or interest in a board which is for the purpose of discussing HY strategies for providing income (see the guidelines).

What is this TR Taliban you refer to?

TR is nothing more than an acceptance that investor returns come in multiple forms, primarily the "income" return usually from dividends, and changes in the price of the investment, a capital gain or loss.

This TR applies to all strategies, including HYP, and all manner of other High Yield Strategies.

If you see anti-HYP attacks please don't label these as TR as has lazily become adopted it seems. It either demonstrates a poor understanding of what TR is, or an attempt to portray everyone that isn't solely an Income investor (should such investors actually exist) with the kind of anti-HYP debating behaviours which is unfair. Much like labelling "HYP Holy War" fighters would be.

It's not me using TR to attack HYP, but several others. We've been through the arguments every way, but it seems we cannot have a simple discussion on whether HYP is waning, or whether support on the boards for HYP is waning (whatever the thread intention was) without a bunch of guys going off topic and introducing arguments about growth shares having better TR. They enforce their own POV on almost any discussion which starts off as either being about HY or HYP (indeed in this thread said people have mixed up the two as though the are the same). It's this constant obsession with imposing their view at every opportunity which put me in mind of the Taliban, and also which caused the disruption and decline of discussion on the HYPP board.

This thread has clearly run its course and nothing new is likely to be learned.

Arb.

[Wizard]

It's not me using TR to attack HYP, but several others. We've been through the arguments every way, but it seems we cannot have a simple discussion on whether HYP is waning, or whether support on the boards for HYP is waning (whatever the thread intention was) without a bunch of guys going off topic and introducing arguments about growth shares having better TR. They enforce their own POV on almost any discussion which starts off as either being about HY or HYP (indeed in this thread said people have mixed up the two as though the are the same). It's this constant obsession with imposing their view at every opportunity which put me in mind of the Taliban, and also which caused the disruption and decline of discussion on the HYPP board.

This thread has clearly run its course and nothing new is likely to be learned.

Arb.

My bold.

Well that is one possible reason, but there are other possible reasons. It could be because there are fewer Lemonfools following HYP, it could be because the number is the same but they feel there is less to discuss, it could be because discussion forums are old hat and all the juicy discussion is taking place in Facebook groups, or something else I have not thought of.

My personal view, and this is not an attack on HYP, is that there is very little of substance left to say. A series of posts saying ‘here is my HYP as it stands now’, ‘here is what I just top sliced’, ‘here is what I just topped up’ will after a time fail to inspire much response and I suspect that time has arrived. To me it just seems that it is a subject area where pretty much anything of interest has been said. What might increase discussion again would be a big external ‘shock’ such as the number of dividend cuts due to COVID.

PS I do find likening other contributors to the Taliban in rather bad taste. Would you like being labelled as ISIS-HYP? Didn’t think so.

[tjh290633]

PS I do find likening other contributors to the Taliban in rather bad taste. Would you like being labelled as ISIS-HYP? Didn’t think so.

Perhaps "Continuity HYP" and "Provisional HYP" would be better.

TJH

[moorfield]

My personal view, and this is not an attack on HYP, is that there is very little of substance left to say. A series of posts saying ‘here is my HYP as it stands now’, ‘here is what I just top sliced’, ‘here is what I just topped up’ will after a time fail to inspire much response and I suspect that time has arrived. To me it just seems that it is a subject area where pretty much anything of interest has been said. What might increase discussion again would be a big external ‘shock’ such as the number of dividend cuts due to COVID.

And not forgetting 'here is some company news', which comprise 12 of 25 threads on the front page of HYPP at time of writing this. What you've written Wizard certainly resonates with how I feel. I don't wish to attack HYP either but rather I think have simply and finally lost interest in contributing much more.

[vrdiver]

PS I do find likening other contributors to the Taliban in rather bad taste. Would you like being labelled as ISIS-HYP? Didn’t think so.

Perhaps "Continuity HYP" and "Provisional HYP" would be better.

TJH

You're all heretics.

And don't get me started on the people's Front of HYP!

VRD (Real-HYP)

[Lootman]

My personal view, and this is not an attack on HYP, is that there is very little of substance left to say. A series of posts saying ‘here is my HYP as it stands now’, ‘here is what I just top sliced’, ‘here is what I just topped up’ will after a time fail to inspire much response and I suspect that time has arrived. To me it just seems that it is a subject area where pretty much anything of interest has been said. What might increase discussion again would be a big external ‘shock’ such as the number of dividend cuts due to COVID.

And not forgetting 'here is some company news', which comprise 12 of 25 threads on the front page of HYPP at time of writing this. What you've written Wizard certainly resonates with how I feel. I don't wish to attack HYP either but rather I think have simply and finally lost interest in contributing much more.

A peculiarity with HYP is that, to my knowledge, it really never had much of a life outside of TMF, TLF and Mr Bland's now defunct HYP tipsheet. So the question arises as to what happens to it if discussions dwindle (for whatever reason). Where do the new recruits come from when there is no progress, no debate, no recruiting and nobody spearheading it? And if there is no new blood then it will wither on the vine, not helped by the fact that UK HY shares have been an under-performing class for approaching 15 years now.

There is still and will always be an interest in value investing and dividend investing. But HYP might be judged by history to be a peripheral phenomenon. In that context TJH's method stands out as a long-term vindication of the idea that there is something useful here, accompanied as it is with impeccable record keeping. But that of course pre-dates HYP and may well turn out to also post-date it.

In the early days of TLF I suggested that the Board be renamed "Dividend Investing". I still think that would be a better long term bet.

[absolutezero]

As IAAG commented, this thread has been photobombed out of its original course by individuals who are just part of the TR Taliban, and have no real interest in the question, or interest in a board which is for the purpose of discussing HY strategies for providing income (see the guidelines).

What is this TR Taliban you refer to?

TR is nothing more than an acceptance that investor returns come in multiple forms, primarily the "income" return usually from dividends, and changes in the price of the investment, a capital gain or loss.

This TR applies to all strategies, including HYP, and all manner of other High Yield Strategies.

If you see anti-HYP attacks please don't label these as TR as has lazily become adopted it seems. It either demonstrates a poor understanding of what TR is, or an attempt to portray everyone that isn't solely an Income investor (should such investors actually exist) with the kind of anti-HYP debating behaviours which is unfair. Much like labelling "HYP Holy War" fighters would be.

And, rather like Brexit and anti masking/vaxxing, why does everything have to be binary and polarised?
All I did is raised the question 'what's so good about dividends? (or words to that effect) and I have been leapt upon!

[JohnnyCyclops]

Because doing so with a single, long-term income-strategy during both phases gives good visibility of the income-stream over a much longer, confidence-building period for some investors.

That confidence can be gained by looking at the size of the long-term income stream, as well as it's long-term growth and growth-trends, and also it's reliability over the long-term, often passing through a number of market drops.

That confidence might be difficult to achieve if using a separate growth strategy initially, and then changing tack later on when wanting to move into an income-strategy phase, and that confidence might be a highly important aspect of this type of investment for some people...

I accept that there's lots of investors who might be quite happy to just 'be' confident that such income-reliability and visibility might just 'occur' once such a second 'income-strategy' phase might be started, but I think it would also be very useful for people to also understand that there's some investors who would be quite happy and willing to accept *some* level of lower overall 'round trip performance' if they were able to stick with the single 'income-strategy', re-investing during what would be your 'growth phase', and then simply flicking the dividend-delivery 'switch' from re-investment to 'income-delivery' at some point where required.

It's a simple, single-strategy approach that delivers benefits that some people might be happy to accept, even in the face of lower overall 'total returns'....

The question you're asking is a valid one dealtn.

<...>

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Yes, yes, yes. That's the journey I've been on. Back in 2011, coming to direct-investing in mid-life, I fooled around with 'trading', index ETFs, value investing, 'dogs of the FT100', etc. I recall buying and selling a FTSE100 ETF like I was a City trader Did the same with a gold ETF next. Never made much; plus too much 'stress' monitoring stocks closely during the work day.

Then I found HYP and it just made sense. In its basic approach it was straightforward. Decisions and actions were played out over weeks/months, not hours/minutes. I've YET to actively sell a stock (after a decade!) other than Verizon shares from Vodafone, and I can't now recall what South32 did out of BHP Billiton. Some may argue we SHOULD have sold one or two, seeing the current state of the HYP. Yes, I'd look at the portfolio value, and hope to see it increase, but didn't overly sweat stock price drops (and often saw as a chance to 'top-up' more, cheaper). But rather I focused on the increasing income stream from dividends (being reinvested).

I'm in the IAAG mould - reinvesting dividends during the current accumulation phase, but effectively testing for myself if HYP works for me (I was chastised once or twice over on HYP-P for phrasing it that way in annual HYP reviews I'd post! ). It was possible HYP simply didn't work; or worked for others by not for me (skill/temperament/risk appetite).

Are there faster/other ways to accumulate? Probably. Indeed, the bulk of our investments are in employer pensions schemes or property doing just that (hopefully!). BUT I'm now confident to take some of those pension funds on retirement and boost the HYP (with a bit more active management!) into an income phase as an alternative to an annuity. I don't think I could say that truthfully if I'd not been exploring/practicing over the last decade.

Meanwhile, over in a very small SIPP, I saw a 90% drop on a 'clever' Biotech play I bought. Fortunately, not a 'farm' bet. Less than a year's dividend income in HYP terms.